Potential Routes

[Foxlimayankee]

Wizz are opening a base in Rome (FCO) with 4 aircraft starting in July. LPL and LTN are the only UK routes for summer 2021. No route to CWL, but creates an opportunity for 2022 if it expands.

 

[Jerry]

Would be pretty good to see Rome back! Hopefully Cardiff is under consideration!

 

[Starflyer]

I suppose i resigned myself to the likes of Dublin not returning for a while. Hopefully we may see Edinburgh and Paris return earlier than i hoped! Interestingly today it was posted on twitter that Loganair took flight to Bergen and Stavanger offsale from Edinburgh and Newcastle. I can't see Newcastle come back but maybe Loganair could be a contender to resume Edinburgh again to fill the gap.

Might be a good option right now. I wouldn't like to guess whether the domestic APD change on the horizon is sufficient to sort out the economics of the Edinburgh route for them, but it can only be helpful.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

There is talk on another forum that the 'new' Flybe intends operating many of its former routes. CWL has been particularly adversely affected by the loss of the original Flybe with a number of that carrier's routes not replaced by other airlines.

Obviously the aviation industry is in a state of uncertainty still but it might be something to keep an eye on. It might depend on the sort of package the WG through its airport company could come up with.

 

[Jerry]

There is talk on another forum that the 'new' Flybe intends operating many of its former routes. CWL has been particularly adversely affected by the loss of the original Flybe with a number of that carrier's routes not replaced by other airlines.

Obviously the aviation industry is in a state of uncertainty still but it might be something to keep an eye on. It might depend on the sort of package the WG through its airport company could come up with.

Would the airport though want to risk making the same mistake as before in putting all it's eggs in one basket again? For an airport like Cardiff relying on one carrier a lot of time seems to come back to bite them.

 

[Seasider]

I don't think that they have much choice, they need to get some routes up and running again.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I don't think that they have much choice, they need to get some routes up and running again.

That's a valid point.

Little competition at CWL unlike the majority of the other former Flybe airports that have had routes replaced by other carriers. So the new Flybe might view CWL as an opportunity for it and perhaps might not come with as high a price tag as otherwise would have been the case.

In any case the WG could justify a financial outlay to attract the latest incarnation on the grounds that the routes are necessary to boost the Welsh economy. Even before the pandemic the government message was becoming louder* that airport profitability might be some way off but that the facility was vitally important to Wales as an economic driver.

* vide evidence to WG committees and to Westminster's Welsh Affairs Committee.

 

[Jerry]

In any case the WG could justify a financial outlay to attract the latest incarnation on the grounds that the routes are necessary to boost the Welsh economy. Even before the pandemic the government message was becoming louder* that airport profitability might be some way off but that the facility was vitally important to Wales as an economic driver.

Personally i'm not sure this government would actually pay an airline like Flybe for routes/base, it's probable that the airport company might do some sort of deal via waiving fees etc but with the climate change emergency and transport not seemingly as high a priority as in previous governments considering transport is now subsumed into the Climate change ministry paying an airline unless it's prestigious and provides an international route like Qatar Airways to Doha might be more frowned upon by this government.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

The previous BE deal was effectively the aircraft being chartered and Flybe being told what routes to operate. Many of those routes didn't produce great numbers on board, never mind any kind of vision that the routes could work on a standalone basis without funding. Probably at least half of those routes wouldn't been seen again on a standalone basis.
The likes of EDI, GLA, DUB, JER and CDG are probably the only routes that *may* work at the right frequency and competitive pricing. It would probably necessitate as max 2 aircraft base, and even then probably not fill the schedule so W patterns could be operated elsewhere.
Sorry, but we need to face facts. For a startup, CWL is not an attractive option.

Jerry is right in that it's unlikely the WG will provide any funding into anything similar to project blackbird.

 

[Jerry]

I suppose you could ask does the airport actually need to do a project Blackbird type deal now? It's situation is very different from 2015.

 

[geoff]

On the other forum, all the emphasis seems to be focused on Birmingham, and what routes could re-appear with FlyBE from there, there seems to be a belief that all domestic routes have been taken up by other airlines, perhaps some of the contributors should look at CWL there are plenty of vacant routes there.

 

[Jerry]

On the other forum, all the emphasis seems to be focused on Birmingham, and what routes could re-appear with FlyBE from there, there seems to be a belief that all domestic routes have been taken up by other airlines, perhaps some of the contributors should look at CWL there are plenty of vacant routes there.

Personally i'd expect them to look at Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh and maybe Southampton.

 

[Jerry]

Looks like BA Cityflyer at Belfast City will be a more permanent thing. They've added extra to Exeter, Glasgow and Leeds apparently and just announced Birmingham.
Keeping my fingers crossed they'll add Cardiff as well!

 

[Seasider]

I thought Eastern operated to BHD? It will not support 2 airlines.

 

[KARFA]

Looks like BA Cityflyer at Belfast City will be a more permanent thing. They've added extra to Exeter, Glasgow and Leeds apparently and just announced Birmingham.
Keeping my fingers crossed they'll add Cardiff as well!

i think just extended through the winter. it won't be long term permanent i don't think - when things recover those aircraft and crews will be deployed back to normal exLCY routes with Emerald coming in to replace them.

 

[Jerry]

I thought Eastern operated to BHD? It will not support 2 airlines.

Yep they do but BA is a better known brand to attract more passengers onto the route.

 

[Jerry]

i think just extended through the winter. it won't be long term permanent i don't think - when things recover those aircraft and crews will be deployed back to normal exLCY routes with Emerald coming in to replace them.

Guess only time will tell or more likely we'll probably have more of a clue about them staying long term if they put summer 2022 on sale.

 

[Matt kenshole]

i think just extended through the winter. it won't be long term permanent i don't think - when things recover those aircraft and crews will be deployed back to normal exLCY routes with Emerald coming in to replace them.

I think time will tell but EXT load factors have been impressive. There is defiantly more capacity here for more than an ATR operation.

 

[KARFA]

I think time will tell but EXT load factors have been impressive. There is defiantly more capacity here for more than an ATR operation.

what have the loads been?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I think time will tell but EXT load factors have been impressive. There is defiantly more capacity here for more than an ATR operation.

what have the loads been?

CAA stats for July (the latest available) show 2,049 passengers on EXT-BHD. At 4 x weekly that gives an average load of around 60.

When Flybe operated CWL-BHD pre-pandemic the loads most months averaged around the 60 mark but the route was double-daily so significantly more passengers were carried compared with 4 x weekly.

That said, the pandemic effects must be taken into account so an average load of 60 through the month of July this year at EXT might be considered decent, although we don't know the yield of course.