Basically, at the end of the day, when is all said and done, and push comes to shove, taking all things into consideration, all things being equal, weighing everything up and not wishing to put a finer point on it, procrastination is the thief of time. Just get on and build the damn thing. If this had been China, this would have already been built by now. We don’t half need the employment round here.
 
Bristol Airport announced today that they will be launching an appeal into their local authority's rejection of the airport's expansion planning application. The elected councillors took the decision to reject against the advice of their own planning officers.

A planning inspector from the National Planning Inspectorate will examine the application which will involve a public enquiry. Afterwards the planning inspector can make the decison on the appeal or the secretary of state can decide to do so and will take into account the planning inspector's recommendations.

A path that LBA might follow if Leeds City Council rejects the current planning application.
 
New planning Laws that are to set to take place which will see ‘automatic’ planning permission granted for new homes, hospitals, schools, shops and offices. I wonder if eventually this may also include airports planned developments like Leeds/Bradford and Bristol?


And just seen this posted by the Prime Minister Boris Johnson on twitter.

 
So in other words, it can take years and years to get planning approval for an airport extension/new terminal, whether it be LBA or BRS, but in theory they could shut an airport down and start building homes on it the next day. Could only happen in the UK!!
 
So in other words, it can take years and years to get planning approval for an airport extension/new terminal, whether it be LBA or BRS, but in theory they could shut an airport down and start building homes on it the next day. Could only happen in the UK!!
Welcome to the uk and everything that goes with it! I struggle to get my head around what goes on here haha funny we are trying to get a new greener airport but yet lets pollute the country with thousands of new houses and traffic to go with them!
 
I tried to read the report but it's not really consumer friendly. I understand the need for the detailed information but it's not an easy read. I think our lovely ( non technical councillors) will switch off after page 1.
 
Ok I've managed to plough through the report....good stuff...and overwhelmingly positive. It states lba will be back to normal in 2 to 4 years pax wise...I guess this modelling is based on the assumption that a vaccine is available for mass use by early 2021. The figures are also a lot more optimistic (2 years) than what aviation investor analysts are predicting. Their modelling seems to be based on 9/11 and the 2008 recession though I'm not sure this global pandemic can be compared in the same way. Let's hope it's an accurate prediction.
 
It isn't necessarily based on 9/11, they used that as just one example of many that shows the aviation recovery after a large event ie. war, terror or recession. There is wide agreement the covid event has become the worst event to ever effect the aviation industry. I don't think the report tries to hide from that. Chris Whitty says a vaccine might never work and the virus could be with us for a long time. This won't mean we all crawl into a cave. Life will go on, life will return to normal.
 
Completely agree Aviador...but have you seen one report from any analyst (financial or aviation) that the recovery will take less than 5 years? And if the main airlines are also advising on this timeline for their expected return to pre covid levels ( and basing their business models/leasing and staffing on these models) which airlines are we expecting to do this?
 
Completely agree Aviador...but have you seen one report from any analyst (financial or aviation) that the recovery will take less than 5 years? And if the main airlines are also advising on this timeline for their expected return to pre covid levels ( and basing their business models/leasing and staffing on these models) which airlines are we expecting to do this?

Most airlines are predicting 2023/24 for recovery to 2019 levels, however Ryanair's planning for a return by summer 2022.

In the last week in July, domestic capacity in China was at the same level as it was last year, whilst in the USA it was at 50%.

easyJet was at 42% of its 2019 seat capacity, Ryanair at 38%, Jet2 at 40% and Wizz Air at 86%. (https://www.oag.com/coronavirus-airline-schedules-data)

The bulk of short haul will likely have recovered by late 2022/early 2023 - it'll be long haul that takes up to 5 years to recover.
 
Yep.but all these projections are based on a vaccine coming in asap and effective track and tracing. China managed it because they literally dragged people out of buildings into quarantine to contain the situation..I'm not sure that would work in a Democracy.
 
Yep.but all these projections are based on a vaccine coming in asap and effective track and tracing. China managed it because they literally dragged people out of buildings into quarantine to contain the situation..I'm not sure that would work in a Democracy.

And what if we don't get a vaccine ASAP?

How long do we keep restrictions in place, waiting (hoping) for a vaccine, before we accept that we just have to live with Covid, just like we live with countless other viruses?

One way or another, we'll have to move past Covid.
 
Hmmm I think that's the stance Trump is taking in America. Maybe herd immunity will work this time and not overwhelm the NHS ...survival of the fittest comes to the fore....not the most ethical stance and some would say if you are over a certain age or have underlying health conditions it's cruel, social engineering based on eugenics. Covid isn't like a cold virus ...even with a mortality rate of under 3 per cent that's shocking in terms of modern health care provision.
 
One of the latest ideas in the event of a second wave is to tell all the over 50’s to stay at home and let the younger and less vulnerable get back to normal, another idea is to tell all the fatsos ( obese in nice company) to do the same as they’re also vulnerable. It’s also dawning on the authorities and “experts” that pubs, with non-social distancing maskless drunks, are far more dangerous places than an aircraft cabin! Can’t help feeling the airline industry has been unfairly targeted because of all the green issues surrounding it, a bad press was inevitable from those vested interests who are enjoying kicking it whilst it’s down and I include the Government in that.
 
Hmmm I think that's the stance Trump is taking in America. Maybe herd immunity will work this time and not overwhelm the NHS ...survival of the fittest comes to the fore....not the most ethical stance and some would say if you are over a certain age or have underlying health conditions it's cruel, social engineering based on eugenics. Covid isn't like a cold virus ...even with a mortality rate of under 3 per cent that's shocking in terms of modern health care provision.

I'm not advocating dropping all restrictions for a survival of the fittest, just raising the question of what will we do as a society if there's no vaccine?

Problem is we don't know the actual mortality rate - 3% is based off known cases. At the peak of the outbreak in April, official numbers showed about 5000 people a day were testing positive. Some estimates predict that at the peak it was more like 100,000. Extrapolating that would suggest just over 6 million people in the UK have had Covid, or 1 in 10. Not enough for herd immunity (which requires 60-70% of the population to have anti-bodies), but that would make the mortality rate 0.7%.

My main point though is what is plan B if in 12 months time (hell even 6 months time) we don't have a vaccine?
 
Hmmm I think that's the stance Trump is taking in America. Maybe herd immunity will work this time and not overwhelm the NHS ...survival of the fittest comes to the fore....not the most ethical stance and some would say if you are over a certain age or have underlying health conditions it's cruel, social engineering based on eugenics. Covid isn't like a cold virus ...even with a mortality rate of under 3 per cent that's shocking in terms of modern health care provision.

Herd immunity tends to require 60% of people immune. In the UK that would mean 39.9 million people who have it. If you at least spread that out over a year (partly to help manage the workload on the health service) that would be just under 110,000 people being infected per day, every day, for 365 days. If we assume a death rate of 1% that's just under 1,100 people dying per day, every day, for a year. Any model where you try and reduce daily infections below 110,000 will of course prolong the time period until we get to 60%.

All of this assumes that those who had it and recover remain immune for at least a year - immunity for some other coronaviruses has sometimes been only a few months.

Added to this there are a significant number of people who don't fully recover and continue to have health problems as a result of the virus weeks and months after they have got over the infection. Not everyone fully recovers.

Do you now see why herd immunity is not the best way to go here?
 
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My main point though is what is plan B if in 12 months time (hell even 6 months time) we don't have a vaccine?

There isn't one other than continuing with the types of restrictions we are currently seeing, paired with track & trace and local lockdowns to contain any outbreaks.

In terms of vaccines the outlook is fairly positive though. There are enough vaccine trials going on spread over a number of different approaches that even if a few fail trials - and some will - we should have some coming through to production.
 
There isn't one other than continuing with the types of restrictions we are currently seeing, paired with track & trace and local lockdowns to contain any outbreaks.

In terms of vaccines the outlook is fairly positive though. There are enough vaccine trials going on spread over a number of different approaches that even if a few fail trials - and some will - we should have some coming through to production.

Depends who you listen to.

Some medical expert the other day said he doubted we'd have a vaccine until 2022.

Others have suggested we won't ever get an actual vaccine, but booster shots each year to boost our own immune system.

Either way, at the rate things are progressing, by New Year we should know whether a vaccine will be our escape route from Covid. I don't think countries can afford to wait until then to come up with a Plan B in case a vaccine proves ineffective.
 

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9 trips in 9 days done 70 miles walked and over 23-00 photos taken with a large number taken at 20mph or above. Heavy rain on 1 day only
5 trips done and 45 miles walked,. Also the RAF has had 4 F35B Lightning follow me yesterday and today....
My plans got altered slightly as one of the minibus companies had to cancel 3 trips and refunded me but will be getting nice discount when I rebook them.
wondering why on my "holidays" I choose to get up 2 hours earlier than when going to work. 6 trips in 6 days soon coming up with 3 more days to sort out

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