The committee has already taken a lot of written and oral evidence from those having an interest, including the WG and the CWL management, and from nominally independent 'experts', so it's difficult to imagine what further evidence they could hope to find during today's visit. The committee is hardly likely expect the WG or the CWL management to tell them why APD should not be devolved so who did they speak to today to be appraised of potential negative side effects of devolution?

Then again, most MPs love a good jolly at tax payers' expense. No doubt a good lunch was provided.
Yep no doubt they got a nice day out from it and a good photo op from it!
I suppose as well it got to give them a chance to speak to people on the ground at Cardiff Airport which would be the immediate beneficiary of devolution.
'weigh up against the potential for negative side effects for North Wales' i find that bit interesting. As considering North Wales only has an airport that operates internal flights, so what negatives could there be? It also makes out that the north of Wales is like a separate entity and not part of the rest of Wales and that there won't be any benefit for greater international connectivity to Wales as a whole just to the one part.
 
Just a few quotes from some of the MP's that visited the airport today from the BBC article.

Stimulating demand at Cardiff Airport is good for all of Wales, a leading Welsh MP has insisted.
David TC Davies MP also said he thought the Treasury would be "persuadable".

He is the chair of the Welsh Affairs Committee.
He said the passenger numbers at the airport were good but could be better and, and that devolving APD would benefit the whole of Wales, particularly south Wales.
However he also said that he was not sure it was true that Bristol Airport would be put at a disadvantage.


Labour MP Anna McMorrin told BBC Wales it was important that APD was devolved.

However Chris Davies, Conservative MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, said he remained sceptical and that the millions of pounds potentially involved could be spent elsewhere in Wales.

"We have looked very carefully at this. This airport was bought with £52m and it's had nearly £40m spent on it, and do we want to give it yet another subsidy."



A report for Welsh ministers suggested abolishing APD could increase annual passenger numbers by 62,000 while having a "marginal" impact on Bristol Airport.
I'd love to see that report and where they got the figure 62,000 from and whether it relates to short or long haul.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales...ales_news&ns_linkname=wales&ns_source=twitter
 
https://www.parliament.uk/business/...t-2017/cardiff-airport-committee-visit-17-19/

The Committee will travel to Cardiff Airport to consider how devolution of APD could bring such commercial and economic benefits, and how these weigh up against the potential for negative side effects for North Wales and surrounding English airports.

As part of its inquiry into Brexit, trade and customs: implications for Wales, the Committee will also be considering the steps the airport has taken to get ready for Brexit.

The visit will include a presentation from the executive board of Cardiff Airport and a tour of the passenger and cargo terminals.

The committee has already taken a lot of written and oral evidence from those having an interest, including the WG and the CWL management, and from nominally independent 'experts', so it's difficult to imagine what further evidence they could hope to find during today's visit. The committee is hardly likely expect the WG or the CWL management to tell them why APD should not be devolved so who did they speak to today to be appraised of potential negative side effects of devolution?

Then again, most MPs love a good jolly at tax payers' expense. No doubt a good lunch was provided.

The lunch comment made me laugh! Although it’s true.
 
Just a few quotes from some of the MP's that visited the airport today from the BBC article.

Stimulating demand at Cardiff Airport is good for all of Wales, a leading Welsh MP has insisted.
David TC Davies MP also said he thought the Treasury would be "persuadable".

He is the chair of the Welsh Affairs Committee.
He said the passenger numbers at the airport were good but could be better and, and that devolving APD would benefit the whole of Wales, particularly south Wales.
However he also said that he was not sure it was true that Bristol Airport would be put at a disadvantage.


Labour MP Anna McMorrin told BBC Wales it was important that APD was devolved.

However Chris Davies, Conservative MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, said he remained sceptical and that the millions of pounds potentially involved could be spent elsewhere in Wales.

"We have looked very carefully at this. This airport was bought with £52m and it's had nearly £40m spent on it, and do we want to give it yet another subsidy."


A report for Welsh ministers suggested abolishing APD could increase annual passenger numbers by 62,000 while having a "marginal" impact on Bristol Airport.
I'd love to see that report and where they got the figure 62,000 from and whether it relates to short or long haul.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales...ales_news&ns_linkname=wales&ns_source=twitter

The Northpoint Report commissioned by the Welsh Government and published in June 2017 looked at the effects of devolving APD to Wales on both CWL and BRS. It also sought to portray as inaccurate and exaggerated an earlier report (2015) on the same subject produced by York Aviation for Bristol Airport.

Northpoint put forward a number of scenarios together with their likely impact on CWL if APD was devolved. It also said that BRS would be disadvantaged much less than York had suggested. Probably the disadvantage would lie somewhere in the middle as both reports were commissioned by vested interests.

The Northpoint scenario that would generate the biggest increase in passenger numbers at CWL is the one where there is a 100% reduction in APD combined with additional route development incentives. Northpoint calculated that this would lead to a 50% increase in passenger numbers by 2025.

That seems to me to be extremely modest but it has to be read alongside one of Northpoint's aims which is to debunk the York report that suggests that CWL will do much better out of APD and that BRS will suffer significantly. The CWL airport management is now looking at 3 mppa by the mid 2020s. Whether that's based on an assumption that APD will be devolved isn't clear.

I presume the potential negatives mentioned in regard to North Wales are based in part on the oral evidence of one of the MPs at the earlier committee hearing who basically asked what was the benefit to people living in that part of the country as few used CWL because of distance. I suppose the MP had in mind that there would be a public cost to devolving APD (less revenue to the WG) and any improvement in the country's economy might not flow to the North, whereas some of the money saved in not devolving APD might be spent directly to the benefit of the North. Chris Davies MP seems to be uttering sentiments along those lines too.





 
I wonder if the 62,000 is based on gaining the 2 target long haul routes of New York and Toronto?

Even if the Welsh Affairs committee recommends that APD is devolved it's no guarantee that the UK government will devolve it though I'd have thought that it would be hard for them to ignore the recommendation completely.
 
If APD were to be devolved I think the study needs to be conducted into what routes would prosper in that scenario.
There's quite a few routes from BRS that I still don't think would be viable from CWL even with reduced APD. The market and catchment will always be stronger at BRS. That leaves the main popular routes and Long Haul.
Long Haul should have minimal impact, given that AMS has continued to grow with QR around and there's no evidence to show that BRS feeder routes have declined as well.
A similar discussion has been had regarding FR's new routes and TUIs 3rd aircraft at CWL and if that will have any impact on BRS, with the general consensus that it shouldn't have a major impact. It may displace Welsh people to fly from CWL rather than BRS, but just opens up seats for Southwest travellers that may have used BHX and LON.
So the question being, if APD is devolved, what do we see as potential new airlines and routes? I would say BE will only see some small growth but much better yields and LFs on current routes. That may stimulate more growth down the line, but that does depend on the Connect deal.
FR have commented they would expand, but would that be at the detriment of their BRS operation? I doubt it, there's still a market there. It may hurt EZY slightly.
Tour Operator wise, it could encourage more from TUI or TCX, or even attract Jet2, but again I don't think it will affect BRS, it'll just displace people in a way as mentioned above.
Long Haul, possibly NYC or YYZ, but limited to start with, there's no evidence to suggest anything huge is viable from CWL, APD or not. It's a struggling market and the big carriers are protecting the big Airports.
So in my view, yes APD will create some growth, but I can't see anything huge happening straight away. What it may do is put CWL back in a position of stimulated growth, that in turn will attract Airlines on its own need it due to it losing market position several years ago.
Maybe a temporary cut to APD should be looked into, but in turn CWL gets less investment from the WG as the money can go to paying APD.
 
I think that the main benefit of APD would be to help attract routes where a large part of the passengers would be inbound tourists. The airport and government want more tourists coming to Wales and spending their money here to benefit the economy of Wales and APD would be a help in that.

I don't think APD is the magic pill that many seem to believe would cure all ailments but I do think it would be a help to Wales when trying to attract routes considering the fierce competition they are will be up against from around Europe.
 
I think that the main benefit of APD would be to help attract routes where a large part of the passengers would be inbound tourists. The airport and government want more tourists coming to Wales and spending their money here to benefit the economy of Wales and APD would be a help in that.

Isn't that more an issue for Tourism Wales in that if people wanted to travel to Wales they would via the hubs, but many international tourists probably have a view of Wales just being an add on to England. That would mean a joined up approach needed in Tourism advertising along with any reduction in APD. That then goes back to what i said earlier, if we're trying to attract inbound tourism then CWL needs a lot more routes than it currently has, but can any new routes to places that would bring in tourists actually be viable.
With KL and BE CDG hubs, prices can't be that different to flying into BRS or BHX to access Wales, so technically, the options are already there. Unless APD can guarantee to bring in a whole new wave of Airlines, routes and new tourists, I don't see it having a major effect.
 
With KL and BE CDG hubs, prices can't be that different to flying into BRS or BHX to access Wales, so technically, the options are already there. Unless APD can guarantee to bring in a whole new wave of Airlines, routes and new tourists, I don't see it having a major effect.
Although the access to hubs does help Wales, having direct routes is also more beneficial as many people are put off by transiting hubs especially more on European routes. Also it may help CWL attract new airlines to operate to the airport which could give Wales a bigger profile in certain countries ie Lufthansa in Germany. I do believe that CWL stands a better chance of attracting airlines like that and the routes they offer with APD devolved than without.
 
The extent to which BRS is likely to be affected depends on which report you read. The York report for BRS says between 19 and 33 routes could be lost - not immediately - if all APD in Wales is abolished or reduced to nil, with a loss of up to 1.2 million BRS passengers over time. The Northpoint report for the WG says the loss to BRS will be nothing like that. Both reports' conclusion have been used as part of the respective arguments of the two sides. So it depends which report one decides to believe, if either of them.

There is a good chance that TUI would move its three summer weekly transatlantic charters from BRS to CWL. If two thirds of the 787-8 loads each week were occupied by over 16s who pay APD £78 reduced rate and £156 (going up to £172 in April) standard rate (TUI's premium cabin) the take in APD would be over £15,000 on each outbound flight assuming all or most seats were occupied as seems likely - £45,000 per week, over £1 million for a six-month season. That's a big incentive if TUI decided to pocket all or most of it instead of reducing fares. It would also be a £1 million-plus charge to the WG in lost APD (with an equivalent reduction in the Westminster block grant) and such routes would do little to help the Welsh economy.

In 2018 Qatar carried over 55,000 passengers on the CWL-DOH route. Assuming 40,000 were over 16s then half that number (the outbounds) would have paid a total sum in APD of at least £1.5 million. That route does have the potential to impact positively on the Welsh economy.

Looking at CWL overall at the moment with its 1.6 mppa and assuming that two thirds are adults who pay APD on outbound flights, even if all the flights were short-haul (which they are not - aside from Qatar and the occasional winter cruise flights a significant number would route via AMS on long haul) that still represents an APD total of £7 million.

Such sums, although still large in themselves but a tiny proportion of the WG's overall income, evidently do not bother the WG as it intends to abolish APD if the tax is devolved. It's convinced the Welsh economy would benefit to a greater extent than that if APD is abolished. From a party political angle it's not a difficult argument to put forward because it's next to impossible to say that any improvement in the country's economy was not due at least in part to APD being removed. Even if the economy bombed it could still be said it would have been worse had APD still been in place.

Of course as passenger numbers grow at CWL so does the lost APD which would be reflected in subsequent Westminster block grant reductions. Interestingly though, would the calculation continue to be based on England's APD rates of the time? Some would argue that would link Wales's APD regime with England's permanently. If Westminster did not use the current England APD rates as a basis how else could they calculate the reduction in their block grant to Wales?

Ryanair would certainly expand its presence at CWL. It always 'rewards' airports in countries where aviation tax is reduced or abolished.
 
There is a good chance that TUI would move its three summer weekly transatlantic charters from BRS to CWL. If two thirds of the 787-8 loads each week were occupied by over 16s who pay APD £78 reduced rate and £156 (going up to £172 in April) standard rate (TUI's premium cabin) the take in APD would be over £15,000 on each outbound flight assuming all or most seats were occupied as seems likely - £45,000 per week, over £1 million for a six-month season. That's a big incentive if TUI decided to pocket all or most of it instead of reducing fares. It would also be a £1 million-plus charge to the WG in lost APD (with an equivalent reduction in the Westminster block grant) and such routes would do little to help the Welsh economy.
But would TUI take the risk and leave BRS exposed to a potential rival? As it's not a guarentee that the passengers from the South West would use the flights rather they could look elsewhere and i suppose that is the unknown about APD being devolved in that no one knows for sure how the airlines and the passengers would react.
 
But would TUI take the risk and leave BRS exposed to a potential rival? As it's not a guarentee that the passengers from the South West would use the flights rather they could look elsewhere and i suppose that is the unknown about APD being devolved in that no one knows for sure how the airlines and the passengers would react.
CWL always attracted very high loads on Florida and the Caribbean weekly summer charters when they operated the route for Thomson years ago, as they did with Airtours. For a long time BRS had intermittent transatlantic charter services.

It only changed at BRS when First Choice began transatlantic summer charters to the Caribbean and Florida before they joined up with Thomson (TUI). Thomson was operating its own summer transtalantic charter flights from CWL at the same time.

When First Choice and Thomson came together the enhanced group dropped the CWL services and concentrated on BRS. Various conspiracy theories arose as to the reason with a recurring one being the influence of former First Choice senior management in the new group. I have no idea what the reason was: the obvious one is a better yield.

If TUI did switch their long-haul charters from BRS the only realistic replacement would be Thomas Cook and I'm not sure how realistic that would be these days. There was talk that TCX was going to operate A330s across the Atlantic from BRS but the plan was abandoned when TUI returned to the routes with its 787s two or three years ago. Whether a load penalty would have resulted with 330s I don't know.

Given that TUI could keep over £1 million per season by switching to CWL and pocketing the APD equivalent whilst charging broadly the same fare prices they do at BRS, that might outweigh any other considerations.

The thing is, as with the York and Northpoint reports, no-one really knows what the effect would be of APD devolution and (it seems both reports agree on this) it would be a gradual change, although Ryanair might get in fairly quickly.

Unless and until devolution happens it's all speculation although debate is always useful, not least to chuck out opinions (sometimes devil's advocacy) and get the reaction of others. On all sorts of matters down the years I've been persuaded to change or amend my opinion by the force of contrary arguments/points of view.
 
Could someone please explain to me why the only Welsh internal service is subject to APD? Surely that service would not affect Bristol or Liverpool airports.
 
Could someone please explain to me why the only Welsh internal service is subject to APD? Surely that service would not affect Bristol or Liverpool airports.
I believe that APD is charged on any flight that has more than 19 seats onsale per flight. Hence the restrictions for the VLY service.
 
The ACC meeting was held last night. Although i wasn't able to attend i've been told that it was very positive.
The airport have been talking tentatively to Flybe's potential new owners and said discussions were positive.
I asked my contact to ask about the Italy routes and they said that they were all viable and attracting customers and used a lot by holiday companies and it hasn't been confirmed that they'll be lost.
Next meeting is in May, hopefully on a day i can attend!
 
Could someone please explain to me why the only Welsh internal service is subject to APD? Surely that service would not affect Bristol or Liverpool airports.
Apologies, first sentence should have included the phrase “if aircraft size increased above present 19 passenger limit.
I believe that APD is charged on any flight that has more than 19 seats onsale per flight. Hence the restrictions for the VLY service.
PSO flights are exempt from APD. Scroll down on the below link to the heading, Emergency or public service flights.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/exemptions-from-air-passenger-duty

The additional PSO flights the WG wanted (still wants?) to create around the UK from CWL would have operated/will operate without APD being levied and with four-year exclusivity for the carrier on each route.
 
The airport will attend the Welsh Affairs Commitee inquiry into APD in March as well as BRS and MAN and the committee will report after Brexit which the way that is going could be a long time!
The new passport egates are being installed and will be ready for the 1st April.
 
Summer 2019 Update
As we coming into December i thought i'd make a list of the routes that will be operated from CWL their weekly departures frequency in August and the airlines operating them and whether they are up or down.
Note as Easterns flights for their routes aren't onsale for August i've used June's. Updated 28/2/19.
UK and Ireland
Anglesey 10 weekly Eastern Airways
Belfast City 11 weekly Flybe
Cork 2 weekly Flybe
Dublin 15 weekly Flybe
Edinburgh 17 weekly Flybe
Glasgow 5 weekly Flybe
Jersey 3 weekly Flybe
Newcastle 6 weekly Eastern Airways (there is a departure sector on Fridays and a arrival sector on Sundays)
Bulgaria
Bourgas 3 weekly TUI and Balkan Holidays
Croatia
Dubrovnik 1 weekly TUI
Cyprus
Larnaca 2 weekly TUI and Thomas Cook
Paphos 2 weekly TUI
Egypt
Hurghada 1 weekly TUI
France
Paris 11 weekly Flybe
Germany
Munich 2 weekly Flybe
Greece
Corfu 2 weekly TUI
Heraklion 1 weekly TUI
Kefalonia 1 weekly TUI
Kos 2 weekly TUI
Rhodes 3 weekly TUI and Thomas Cook
Zante 4 weekly TUI and Thomas Cook
Italy
Milan 2 weekly Flybe
Naples 1 weekly TUI
Rome 2 weekly Flybe
Venice 2 weekly Flybe
Verona 2 weekly Flybe
Malta
Malta 2 weekly Ryanair
Netherlands
Amsterdam 20 weekly KLM
Portugal
Faro 7 weekly Flybe, TUI and Ryanair
Spain and Canary Islands
Alicante 8 weekly Vueling and TUI
Barcelona 2 weekly Ryanair
Gran Canaria 1 weekly TUI
Ibiza 3 weekly TUI
Lanzarote 2 weekly TUI
Malaga 10 weekly TUI and Vueling and Ryanair
Menorca 3 weekly TUI
Palma de Mallorca 13 weekly TUI, Thomas Cook and Vueling
Reus 2 weekly TUI and Thomas Cook
Tenerife South 5 weekly TUI, Thomas Cook and Ryanair
Tunisia
Enfidha 2 weekly TUI and Thomas Cook
Turkey
Antalya 2 weekly TUI and Thomas Cook
Dalaman 5 weekly TUI and Thomas Cook
Qatar
Doha 7 weekly Qatar Airways

That makes a total of 209 departures a week with 9 different airlines so far.
 
Last edited:
This is a summary of departures each day for Summer 2019 so far by each airline.
Monday
Flybe 12 departures on E175s
Eastern Airways 4 departures on J41s
Ryanair 2 departure on 737 800s
KLM 3 departures on E175s
Thomas Cook 2 departures A321s
Vueling 3 departures A320s
TUI 7 departures 737 800
Qatar Airways 1 departure 787 8
Total 32 departures
Tuesday
Flybe 10 departures on E175s
Eastern Airways 4 departures on J41s
KLM 3 departures on E175s
Thomas Cook 2 departures on A321s
Vueling 3 departures on A320s
TUI 6 departures on 737 800s
Ryanair 1 departure 737 800
Qatar Airways 1 departure on 787 8
Total 30 departures
Wednesday
Flybe 11 departures on E175s
Eastern Airways 4 departures on J41s
Ryanair 2 departure on 737 800s
KLM 3 departures on E175s
Thomas Cook 2 departures on A321s
Vueling 3 departures on A320s
TUI 6 departures on 737 800s
Qatar Airways 1 departure 787 8
Total 32 departures
Thursday
Flybe 12 departures on E175s
Eastern Airways 4 departures on J41s
Ryanair 1 departure on 737 800
KLM 3 departures on E175s
Thomas Cook 2 departures on A321s
Vueling 3 departures on A320s
Balkan Holidays 1 departure on A320
TUI 6 departures on 737 800
Qatar Airways 1 departure 787 8
Total 33 departures
Friday
Flybe 13 departures on E175s
Eastern Airways 3 departures on J41s
Ryanair 2 departure on 737 800s
KLM 3 departures on E175s
Thomas Cook 2 departures A321s
TUI 6 departures 737 800
Qatar Airways 1 departure 787 8
Total 30 departures
Saturday
Flybe 9 departures on E175s and Q400s
KLM 3 departures on E175s
Thomas Cook 2 departures on A321s
Vueling 2 departures on A320s
TUI 7 departures on 737 800
Ryanair 1 departure 737 800
Qatar Airways 1 departure on 787 8
Total 26 departures
Sunday
Flybe 9 departures on E175s
Eastern Airways 1 departures on J41
Ryanair 1 departure on 737 800
KLM 2 departutes on E190 and E175
Thomas Cook 2 departures on A321s
Vueling 1 departure on A320
Balkan Holidays 1 departure A320
TUI 6 departures on 737 800
Qatar Airways 1 departure on 787 8
Total 24 departures.

Total in a week so far is 207 departures a week.
 

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9 trips in 9 days done 70 miles walked and over 23-00 photos taken with a large number taken at 20mph or above. Heavy rain on 1 day only
5 trips done and 45 miles walked,. Also the RAF has had 4 F35B Lightning follow me yesterday and today....
My plans got altered slightly as one of the minibus companies had to cancel 3 trips and refunded me but will be getting nice discount when I rebook them.
wondering why on my "holidays" I choose to get up 2 hours earlier than when going to work. 6 trips in 6 days soon coming up with 3 more days to sort out

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