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Birmingham Airport - General Thread

58terminus

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Sep 23, 2016
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In a letter to the region's MPs, she said an analysis shows Birmingham Airport losing 17,098 international flights annually by 2030 as a direct result of Heathrow expansion.
To be fair this is from a politician and they are always telling us how they can make the nation prosperous within five years if we would give them a chance. We all know how that ends up so having one predict 12 years into the future
maybe needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.
 

Coathanger16

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Sep 29, 2016
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Interesting words from Justine Greening.


Former Transport Secretary Justine Greening has written to Midland MPs urging them to vote against a planned third runway at Heathrow Airport.

She claimed the project would damage trade at Birmingham Airport.

In a letter to the region's MPs, she said an analysis shows Birmingham Airport losing 17,098 international flights annually by 2030 as a direct result of Heathrow expansion.

She said: "You may feel it’s time to get on with it', but the 'it' is a clear downgrading of your regional airports’ connections.

"Birmingham Airport in your region is nearly 15% smaller on international flights by 2030 as a direct consequence of the Airports NPS proposal."


https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/ne...transport-secretary-justine-greening-14816014
I think it is worth pointing out here that Justine Greening's constituency is affected by Heathrow and any expansion there and as such why is Birmingham airport of any interest to her? To me it all sounds like a last ditch effort to persuade MP's to vote against LHR expansion next week rather than anything to do with the future of BHX airport.

I can't imagine many of those flights that BHX would supposedly lose would be short haul ones, so assuming they're long haul that equates to approx 23 long haul flights per day every day - is BHX likely to achieve that by 2030, and if so how likely would BHX be to lose ALL those flights if LHR gets a 3rd runway. Is there so little demand to fly from BHX that the extra capacity available at LHR would draw all those airlines to LHR?

As I say, I would take anything an MP says about LHR expansion whose constituency is affected by LHR with a large pinch of salt.
 

Sam1988

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Apr 19, 2018
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Hi everyone hope your all well?

sorry I have been quiet over recent weeks and no photos posted, ive been very busy, I handed my notice in at BHX just over 10 days ago my last shift will be this Friday coming, I have recently been offered a job at Heathrow which was far to good an opportunity to turn down, so from now on unfortunately I wont be able to provide you with airside photos from BHX

keep me updated with news and photos :)
 

Land23R

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May 9, 2014
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I'd be cautious about being too cynical of Justine Greening's letter. My understanding is that the figures being quoted on various media, including for LBA, NCL and MAN, came from the Commons Transport Committee. They may originally have been expressed as percentages but have been reinterpreted as the number of annual movements. From memory, MAN was an 11% loss.

Who produced the figures for the Transport Committee I've no idea, or what assumptions were made for growth up to 2030 if that's when R3 might open. Personally, I think at best R3 would constrain growth at airports like BHX and MAN - more especially on long haul services - and at worst reduce traffic as is being predicted by Greening and others.
 

Coathanger16

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Sep 29, 2016
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I'd be cautious about being too cynical of Justine Greening's letter. My understanding is that the figures being quoted on various media, including for LBA, NCL and MAN, came from the Commons Transport Committee. They may originally have been expressed as percentages but have been reinterpreted as the number of annual movements. From memory, MAN was an 11% loss.

Who produced the figures for the Transport Committee I've no idea, or what assumptions were made for growth up to 2030 if that's when R3 might open. Personally, I think at best R3 would constrain growth at airports like BHX and MAN - more especially on long haul services - and at worst reduce traffic as is being predicted by Greening and others.
I wonder what the reductions are in relation to - current number of flights or predicted number of flights in 2030 say if LHR didn't expand. If its current number of flights then its worth pointing out that last year alone MAN saw a 10% increase in movements, so if LHR expansion saw an 11% drop in movements at MAN that would still only put them back 1 year at present. If the latter an 11% reduction may still see an increase above today - for instance if MAN saw a 1% increase in ATM's every year between now and 2030 and then saw an 11% decrease, there will still be more movements than today (just ~1%). So even if this data is accurate airports should be no worse off than today. In reality MAN has averaged a 6% increase in ATM's over the past 4 years with both 2016 and 2017 seeing more than 10% increases in ATMS.

In reality I don't see why any airports North of Manchester should see a reduction in movements if Heathrow gets a third runway. MAN is proof enough that airlines see there is demand from passengers to fly from the regions and are choosing to fly there. The likes of Singapore, Cathay, Hainain, United, American and soon to be Ethiopian & Thai among others aren't flying to Manchester because they can't get slots at LHR. They are flying there because there is demand there. Why would building a third runway at LHR lessen that demand? At worst expanding LHR will only delay services from the regions as airlines seek to take advantage of the new slots at LHR. As soon as those slots are gone they will once again shift their focus to the regions as they currently are.

May we see airlines stop launching flights (especially long haul) to the regions if a third runway gets built? Maybe. Will we see airlines pulling flights from the regions and shifting them to LHR? In my opinion - very unlikely.

Take Hainan for example. They launched MAN to Beijing, and recently launched EDI/DUB to Beijing. They also recently acquired slots at LHR. Did they use them to shift either or both of those Beijing services to LHR? No. They used them to launch a service to a destination the UK wasn't previously connected to (Changsha).

Unfortunately, I think the biggest casualty of a third runway at Heathrow will be long haul from BHX. Although having said that the airport seems to be taking care of that itself...
 

Jerry

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Talking of long haul from BHX, I've just seen an advert by BHX of the airports 1 stop options to the US with Aer Lingus, KLM and Iberia. It was on Walsall FC big electronic board by the M6 Junction 9. Couldn't get a photo was driving.
 

Land23R

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May 9, 2014
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I think one of the issues is availability of aircraft for airlines. Unless carriers have got spare a/c they will allocate limited frames where they believe they can make most money or believe they must be to compete. That I think is the potential risk to major regional airports like MAN, BHX, & EDI.

On your point about interim growth and whether MAN or BHX for example would be better of worse off compared to now if movements were lost if and when R3 arrives, I think that is the crucial issue.
R3 is likely to constrain growth at some regional airports that they could otherwise expect to achieve if R3 doesn't happen. However you dress that up, it would mean expansion at LHR at the expense of some organic regional growth of direct services with more passengers having to use a hub for connecting flights. Whether they would choose LHR is another matter.

In my view, some of the hype emanating from HAL and Grayling has been at best half truths or simply wrong. Comments by Grayling in yesterday's Telegraph were laughable, contesting that business passengers from Belfast, Aberdeen and Newcastle should be able to get to their markets round the world with a simple change at LHR when all too often have to go to the Netherlands or Germany for their connections. What drivel is he being fed? All of those airports have more flights to LHR than Amsterdam and none - yes, none, of them have services to Frankfurt or Munich, Germany's 2 main hubs. If he can't get that right, how are we expected to believe some of the financial benefits that are claimed for the whole of the UK, or indeed the ability of Heathrow to deliver with a balance sheet that some economists and accountants are now raising serious questions about.

Anyway, the legal challenges in due course should be interesting.
 

Kevin Farnell

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May 21, 2013
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Talking of long haul from BHX, I've just seen an advert by BHX of the airports 1 stop options to the US with Aer Lingus, KLM and Iberia. It was on Walsall FC big electronic board by the M6 Junction 9. Couldn't get a photo was driving.
Possibly one of the best places in the UK to have an advertising board. Southbound, M5/M6 traffic haven't separated and Northbound M5 traffic has already joined the M6. Even with the M6 Toll road, this stretch of motorway remains incredibly busy. I'm not sure it still is, but 20 or 30 years ago this was the busiest stretch of motorway in Europe.

Kevin
 

BHXsupporter

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Nov 6, 2013
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Having read the piece, I interpreted it differently and that Patrick Burns may just be raising several opinions on both sides, perhaps as a promotion for Sunday's TV debate. It might be quite interesting but the horse has bolted from the tape wrt the LHR decision although it has many fences to climb over before the finish line is in sight.
 

58terminus

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Sep 23, 2016
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Anybody else seen the article in the Birmingham Mail about a local M.P. criticising Mayor Andy Norths lack of support
for a second runway at BHX. Mr North is correct on that but in his reply he is quoted as saying "there are currently 11 million passenger journeys a year"
I have seen people on here commenting on his apparent lack of interest in the airport and this does seem to
back them up.
 

Aceshigh

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Nov 24, 2015
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Flight reductions also relates to C02 emissions.

In order to meet "NATIONAL" targets Howard Davies made it very clear in his report that regional airports "might" be expected to see a reduction to protect Heathrow. It is there in black and white but is buried in a single line at the back of the report , as was the need to underwrite the whole project to give investors "that degree of confidence" that they wont lose their money if it goes belly up.
Two incredibly important points completely transparent to MPs and the BBC.

Quite why the owners of MAN and Indeed BHX rolled over and had their collective tummies rubbed is bizarre.
Both should be screaming blue murder about the gravy train of spend in London.
That money cannot be spent twice and pious commitments about future investment should be treat as utter xxxxxx.

Its about time the Midlands and The North HAD THE MONEY and London had the rhetoric of that "future commitment".

I can just about understand the member for say Belfast hanging their hat on LHR but Midland MPs appear as thick as some in other parts of the country. Given none will have read the report and few listened to the debate it is no surprise the wrong decision was reached.

The promise of thrice direct daily 777s to Dundee, Tesside, Humberside, Liverpool, Cardiff , Norwich etc Or a major logistics build depot in Somerset, Worcestershire, Bedfordshore and EVEN Northern Ireland was enough to sway the others.

Complete and utter bunkum.

Justine Greening was actually one of the few MPs to have a forensic knowledge of the content !
 
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