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CAA Provisional Statistics Update

Scottie Dog

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The CAA have updated the figures for March with the following notable results. As I'm away from the laptop I'll just note the changes to my original post as follows:

Top 25 destinations by passenger numbers

Doha added with 33,226. For some reason they show Doha Hamas and Doha International as 2 separate airports (they are one and the same). The percentage increase is 9.24%.
Keflavik thetefore drops out of the top 25.

Major changes to Domestic traffic.

Isle of Man now shows 14,067 which is an increase of 0.93%.

Scottie Dog
 

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David_itl

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Odd thing to notice but the moving annual movement total has gone up! Last time it was over 202,000 seems to be around May 2018 and there's a reasonable chance that the number of movements recorded during the year will be the most since 2008. Incredible to think that there at 73 fewer movements per day than in 2006 when it peaked at 229,000 but we have 6.5 million more passengers than then.
 

Scottie Dog

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A while ago I started to think of ways to calculate the load factors for Manchester's long-haul routes. Below you will find my first attempt using data from the CAA monthly reports together with that provided by FR24.

13481
 

Scottie Dog

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Manchester Statistics - April 2019

Introduction


Back in September 2015 I decided that I should start to correlate statistics for Manchester and use 2005 as a reference point for historical data. My file now consists of 14 years of monthly figures and 486 destinations that have been served from Manchester over that period.


Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

No new destinations were served in April 2019.


Million passenger routes (Rolling annual figures)
Amsterdam - 1,045,211 passengers

The following domestic statistics are missing from the CAA report for April.
All airports have report for this month

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics/MAG statistics
Monthly passengers - 2,390,976 +8.18%
Annual Total - 8,050,122
Moving Annual Total - 28,838,398 +3.22%

Monthly Movements - 16,577 +2.78%
Annual Movements - 58,579
Moving Annual Movements - 202,109 +0.21%

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers
13518

Top 25 destinations with highest percentage increase.
13519

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.
13520

Comparison of top 25 destinations - April 2009 versus April 2019
13521

Major changes to Domestic traffic
13522

CAA statistics for April are final.
 

Scottie Dog

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Manchester Statistics - May 2019

Introduction

Back in September 2015 I decided that I should start to correlate statistics for Manchester and use 2005 as a reference point for historical data. My file now consists of 14 years of monthly figures and 486 destinations that have been served from Manchester over that period.

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

No new destinations were served in May 2019.

Million passenger routes (Rolling annual figures)

Amsterdam - 1,048,038 passengers

The following domestic statistics are missing from the CAA report for May.

Neither Belfast City nor Belfast International and Exeter have reported for this month
In May 2018 these accounted for 63,527 passengers.

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics/MAG statistics
Monthly passengers - 2,644,546 +5.78%
Annual Total - 10,694,668
Moving Annual Total - 28,982,780 +3.83%
Monthly Movements - 18,609 +1.42%
Annual Movements - 77.188
Moving Annual Movements - 202,372 +0.22%

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers
13736

Top 25 destinations with highest percentage increase.
13737

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.
13738

Comparison of top 25 destinations - May 2009 versus May 2019
13739

Major changes to Domestic traffic
13740

CAA statistics for May are provisional.
 

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Scottie Dog

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I have been playing around with trying to calculate the probable load factors on certain long-haul flights.

Below is an amended version of the April figures - I had initially had a figure of over 130pc for New York JFK but I'vesince discovered this was due to my having missed a second Thomas Cook flight - why do they have to different flight numbers??

13742
 

User1007

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I presume low loads to the Gulf and Pakistan in May are related to Ramadan? Boston is particularly poor - less capacity than last year but still less than half full. Edinburgh supports a daily flight.
 

Scottie Dog

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SUMMER 2019 - Planned Air Transport Movements are currently +3.4% and Seats 6.1% compared with S18 season actual
 

Scottie Dog

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Ooops an error has crept into my initial load-factor file for April and May. There was an extra TCX flight to JFK that I had not noticed and also I had missed a formula for YVR. I think I should say that this data is 'work in progres'

13752
 
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Scottie Dog

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Below is my projection for passenger numbers up until the end of 2021. The monthly projection is based on an assumption of a 5% increase.

13786
 

Land23R

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Very good figures again for MAN
My reaction to the figures Ian was that they were reasonable rather than v. good with a qualification. I say that because seats for the whole summer per ACL are up 6% but I'm not sure how that varies over the course of the 30 weeks. If there are new services or extra frequencies starting in July / August, then we may see better increases for those months than the 3.8% in June. Hope so anyway.
 

IanFarquharson

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My reaction to the figures Ian was that they were reasonable rather than v. good with a qualification. I say that because seats for the whole summer per ACL are up 6% but I'm not sure how that varies over the course of the 30 weeks. If there are new services or extra frequencies starting in July / August, then we may see better increases for those months than the 3.8% in June. Hope so anyway.
My reaction to the figures Ian was that they were reasonable rather than v. good with a qualification. I say that because seats for the whole summer per ACL are up 6% but I'm not sure how that varies over the course of the 30 weeks. If there are new services or extra frequencies starting in July / August, then we may see better increases for those months than the 3.8% in June. Hope so anyway.
Percentage wise a lot better than BHX and MAN had over double the number of pax so I would take nearly 4% any day !
 

User1007

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My reaction to the figures Ian was that they were reasonable rather than v. good with a qualification. I say that because seats for the whole summer per ACL are up 6% but I'm not sure how that varies over the course of the 30 weeks. If there are new services or extra frequencies starting in July / August, then we may see better increases for those months than the 3.8% in June. Hope so anyway.
Easyjet had some routes/extra frequencies start in the middle of June, with more to come in August. Pegasus also started their Istanbul route this month. The general mood seems to be that holiday bookings aren't spectacular this year though.
 

Scottie Dog

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SUMMER 2019 - Planned Air Transport Movements are currently +3.3% and Seats 6.0% compared with S18 season.

WINTER 2019 - Planned Air Transport Movements are currently +17.2% and Seats +18.3% compared with W18 season actual.

Apparantly the IATA Slot return deadline is normally 15th August, but for W19 this has been brought forward as a trial to 15th July. The EU Slot Return deadline remains as 31st August.

CHANGES

United (UA) – Daily EWR was held with B767-400 with 240 seats but is now 214 seat B767-300. This compares with W18 which was a B757.
 

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