CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[EGCC_MAN]

Thanks for all the great work on the stats as usual, SD.

And good news for you ... which you already know, of course! As of next month's stats, comparison with the former benchmark of 2019 will no longer be required. 2024 was a full 12-month period post-recovery from the covid era cutbacks ... though arguably US routes are still weak. But, that aside, the new benchmark will be 2025 v 2024 going forward!

 

[Scottie Dog]

My take on the CAA data for the month of November 2019 - 2024 can be found at:

UK-wide airport statistics - all UK airports

2024 passenger figures January to November:-

forums4airports.com

Individual airport data will follow as soon as possible, but I'm away helping my grandson celebrate his 15th birthday this weekend.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Finally - for today at least - here is my review of the November CAA data, together with my calculation of load-factors on specific routes.
I have noted that the Doha route appears to have exceeded 100pc, however I have been unable to find where I have gone wrong!! If anybody can find any flights, apart from the regular 3 per day Qatar Airways flights, then please do let me know.

Load Factors are calculated on flights taken from FlightRadar24/Flightaware and seating configurations from Planespotters.

 

[David_itl]

Busiest airports in Europe for 2024 per wiki
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_busiest_airports_in_Europe

MAN in 19th place. Athens had a million more passengers and were in 16th, Vienna about 900,000 more passengers in 17th then Zurich 350,000 passengers ahead in 18th.

We are still the outlier in the list being a non-hub, non-capital, non-tourism based airport.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

True, but look at the names below MAN. And the path to 12th place is very crowded. But I suspect that MAN won't advance rapidly unless significantly more space is made available to accommodate additional based EasyJet and Ryanair units.

 

[David_itl]

i may be going out on a limb with this.....

With Aurigny's move coming soon, I would hazard there is room for non-MAN based flying at T3/T1. I should really look this up but for argument's sake, with a Mon-Sat morning service and Sun-Fri evening service there is a potential increase in capacity as we would be replacing a 76 seater with a 189 seater so 2700 extra seats per week.

No immediate benefit for the rest of the winter season but a tweaking of summer routes would allow potentially 70,000 more passengers to be handled. This represents something like a 0.2% increase.

When BA moves, this should be room for at least 1 more based (easyjet) aircraft with maybe 3 more non-based flights. Not knowing how BA would split the cabin, it may be 35 more seats available on 12 flights per day. Over a summer, that's 76000 more passengers so about 0.3% growth.



The EI operation to DUB/BHD should see 100,000 extra seats being added with easyJet or whoever add services. So that's 0.4%. Not even thought about Loganair's operation. Very small wins to maximise numbers through T3/T1 just by shifting domestic/EI operations?

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Airline terminal transfers will result in more gate availability for carriers remaining at T1/T3, subject to stands remaining in service as they are now - we need a bit more info on plans for use of this space. However, one of the main constraints on expansion has been terminal capacity; the number of people legally allowed to be inside that space simultaneously without breaching safety regulations. Under present arrangements, my understanding is that T3 throughput growth has been held back by this.

 

[Scottie Dog]

For those interested in "Numbers" here are my figures for January 2025:

Percentage share of movements for the top 20 airlines

Daily movements - with percentage variation on the same period in 2024

This indicates that the, hoped for, increase in movements for January 2025 over the previous year will be in the region of 6.7%
Please note the variation in weekly figures is caused by the 1st day of the week on different days - 1st January 2024 was a Monday, compared with 2025 which was a Wednesday and thus movements would seem to be down by approximately 880.
I will try, when time is available, to check the number of cancelled flights in 2025 - there seem to have been rather a lot!

 

[Scottie Dog]

The airport statistics are now available for January and it looks as if my suggested increase of movement at 6.7% was slightly pessimistic!!

 

[IanFarquharson]

Manchester handled 1,790,158 pax in Jan 24 so it couldnt of handled 2,238,768 in Jan 25 !
2024 in total was 30,788,357
Looks like they quoting the December 2024 figure mot January 2025

 

[Iron Duck]

Manchester handled 1,790,158 pax in Jan 24 so it couldnt of handled 2,238,768 in Jan 25 !
2024 in total was 30,788,357
Looks like they quoting the December 2024 figure mot January 2025

I read on Dried Fruit that the actual Jan 2025 figure is 31,076,000.

 

[IanFarquharson]

I read on Dried Fruit that the actual Jan 2025 figure is 31,076,000.

MAN have made a right mess of their pax figures.
If Jan 25 is 2,022,284 then the 12m figure is 31,020,483 as at 31.01.25
I think like most UK airports these high % increases will slow down in S25 months and MAN will be seeing 5% growth looking at what the Summer has on sale.

 

[Scottie Dog]

I've already taken up the matter with the airport press office, who publish the data, and they will be issuing a revised report within the next couple of days. Thanks for flagging the issue.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Movements for Friday 7h February 2025 – data from FR24/Flightaware

Cancellations – Pegasus 2 (PC1181/PC1182) to/from SAW = Total 2

Diversions – 0

Arrivals – 237
Departures – 242
Total Movements – 479

For comparison the highest daily movement that I have recorded since 1st August 2021 was 691 on Monday 2nd September 2024

Movements per operator: Aer Lingus 6, Aer Lingus Regional 12, Aer Lingus UK 4, Air Baltic/Swiss 4, Air France 6, ASL/Fedex 1, Airlec Air Espace 2, AirX 2, Aurigny 4, Austrian 2, British Airways 17, Brussels 4, Cathay Pacific 2, easyJet 102, Egyptair 2, Emirates 6, Etihad 2, Eurowings 8, Finnair 4, Gulf Air 2, Iberia Express 2, Icelandair 2, Jet2 32, Juneyao Air 2, KLM 10, Lauda Europe/Ryanair 2, Loganair 16, Lufthansa 12, Luxair 2, Malta Air/Ryanair 2, NetJets Europe 4, NetJets UK 2, Norse 2, Norwegian 4, Pegasus 2, Platoon Aviation 2, Qatar 6, Ryanair 137, SAS 8, Saudia 2, Singapore 2, TAP Express 2, TUI 18, Turkish 6, Virgin Atlantic 6, Vueling 2

Air Transport Movements: 467
Miscellaneous Movements: 12
Total Movements: 479

 

[Scottie Dog]

I've had to sit on these for a few days due to an embargo, but they do look good.

 

[mullion]

Nice to see only just short of 2M for January

 

[Scottie Dog]

And here is a comparison of January 2019 with 2025:

 

[Scottie Dog]

A quick review of early February comparative statistics:

10 days of logs done for February and, allowing for us being a day short, compared with 2024, the numbers are looking good. 1st-10th Feb 2025 4,594 compared with 4065 in 2924. That puts us already up by the equivalent of a day's movements and cancels out the Leap-Year advantage of 2024.

 

[Scottie Dog]

*** CORRECTION ***

I have just noticed as I'm about to post the load factors for December that there is an error in post #1423 for November. The Doha load factor should read 94.26%.

Numbers for December will follow shortly.

CAA data for December across all UK airports is available at https://forums4airports.com/threads/5728/page-3#post-298107 - post #44

Selected Long Haul route load factors based on known flights and seating capacity for the routes - data taken from FlightRadar24.com and Planespotters.net

Selected European and domestic routes

 

[Scottie Dog]

Whilst compiling data for January I noticed that I have missed the fact that easyJet started a Manchester/Zurich flight back in November. The result are the following changes to my Load Factor files.

November - 73.97pc
December - 72.64pc

I really should pay more attention to route news!