Thomas Cook

[rollo]

TCX are a bit of a disapointment really at BHX failing to grow and in fact 2019 is down in flights by over 10%. They don't seem willing or able to even match the slow growth of Tui short haul at BHX over recent years and I don't understand why they do not offer Alicante, Malaga or Faro three of the biggest markets, presumably they have their reasons. Anything long haul looks a complete no no.

I can only assume its down to the financial situation Thomas Cook group found themselves in and decided to concentrate on Manchester and Gatwick. Jet2 may be seen as a problem butTui seem unaffected by them.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

TCX are a bit of a disapointment really at BHX failing to grow and in fact 2019 is down in flights by over 10%. They don't seem willing or able to even match the slow growth of Tui short haul at BHX over recent years and I don't understand why they do not offer Alicante, Malaga or Faro three of the biggest markets, presumably they have their reasons. Anything long haul looks a complete no no.

I can only assume its down to the financial situation Thomas Cook group found themselves in and decided to concentrate on Manchester and Gatwick. Jet2 may be seen as a problem butTui seem unaffected by them.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Thomas Cook don't fly to Malaga from any UK airport and they will only fly to Alicante from Manchester next summer. This summer they flew to ALC from Manchester and Glasgow but GLA is dropped for next summer. Not even Gatwick features to Alicante.

 

[rollo]

Thomas Cook don't fly to Malaga from any UK airport and they will only fly to Alicante from Manchester next summer. This summer they flew to ALC from Manchester and Glasgow but GLA is dropped for next summer. Not even Gatwick features to Alicante.

That's the thing that I do not understand just about every man and his dog serves this market maybe that's their reason but given the market they are in seems strange to me given they are one of the main package holiday companies, anyway they must have their reasons.

 

[Seasider]

Thomas Cook don't fly to Malaga from any UK airport and they will only fly to Alicante from Manchester next summer. This summer they flew to ALC from Manchester and Glasgow but GLA is dropped for next summer. Not even Gatwick features to Alicante.

I didn't realise that, it seems strange for a large holiday company not to offer holidays in those popular resorts.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

It is all about yield. ALC and AGP are core destinations for Ryanair, EasyJet, Jet2 and others. Very competitive. And it is very easy to book your own accommodation in resorts such as Benidorm and Torremolinos. Transfers too. Thomas Cook's own metal earns better yields on package holiday sales to other destinations. The group does feature packages to resorts on the Costa Blanca and Costa del Sol but they ticket their passengers on EasyJet flights for these.

 

[rollo]

Thanks for the explanation so if they put passengers on Easy Jet thats BHX knackered then as according to some they don't get on with them.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

They may use other carriers as well. It is generally EZY out of Manchester to those resorts but I didn't check all departure airports. Actually, I returned from a Thomas Cook holiday (Tenerife from MAN) just last week and flights were ticketed with arch-competitor TUI (G-FDZF and G-OBYF). Thomas Cook Group can be quite pragmatic if it gets the job done!

 

[Ianbutty]

This is a demand and supply business. It may be that folks have Brexit jitters and are just not booking holidays for next year. There will be a big rush once we know what is going on. So I can understand airlines reluctance to serve even the most popular destinations. So they will run fewer seats and out of fewer airports buying up other airline's capacity.

Maybe also they Will see a boom in Inter EU post Brexit travel as the EU citizens are reluctant to come here thereby moving aircraft to EU bases.

 

[Jerry]

Yet generally airlines have added new routes and extra capacity. With Thomas Cook i just believe that they are a company generally under pressure from Jet2 and TUI.

 

[rollo]

Yet generally airlines have added new routes and extra capacity. With Thomas Cook i just believe that they are a company generally under pressure from Jet2 and TUI.

As Jerry says other airlines are adding capacity so i do think its really Thomas Cooks modus operandi even O'Leary after all his moans and whatever re Brexit is steadily adding capacity from the U.K.
So far as BHX is concerned not sure how much Jet2 are effecting Cooks as they have basically replaced Monarch on the bucket and spade routes, mind you the are doing a fantastic job of it so more power to their elbow.
Alicante and Malaga passenger figures are disproportionately low compared to say East Mids for example and probably Bristol.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

This is a demand and supply business. It may be that folks have Brexit jitters and are just not booking holidays for next year. There will be a big rush once we know what is going on. So I can understand airlines reluctance to serve even the most popular destinations. So they will run fewer seats and out of fewer airports buying up other airline's capacity.

Maybe also they Will see a boom in Inter EU post Brexit travel as the EU citizens are reluctant to come here thereby moving aircraft to EU bases.

My impression is that Brexit fears are way overblown due to the UK media's obsession with the subject to the exclusion of all else. It is not in the interests of either the UK or the EU27 to see commercial flights disrupted or even grounded. It would be an unmitigated disaster for hard-pressed tourism-dependent economies on the shores of the Mediterranean. It would be calamitous for business travel both in Europe and transatlantic (if UK ATC licenses cease to be recognised as some suggest). Politicians and civil servants know this. It will be avoided if they have any interest in career preservation. At worst, any disruption could only conceivably endure for hours or days if Barnier, Tusk, Juncker and co were minded to 'make a point'.

I have not personally come across anybody who has given a thought to not booking a European holiday next year because of Brexit. I've booked several trips already and Brexit never entered my thoughts as a consideration. Airlines' S19 programmes already tell us that they are not anticipating significant disruption due to Brexit.

But, of course, general economic conditions do play a role. The Bank of England under Mark Carney was always going to pursue a weak pound policy, prioritising export industries over domestic savers and travellers. This makes overseas holidays for UK-domiciled customers more expensive, but can simultaneously make UK holidays "cheap" from the perspective of foreign visitors. Oil prices have risen markedly over recent months. This is a global phenomenon, but one which particularly impacts aviation. Higher fuel costs will feed through to raised fares and more expensive holidays - which suppresses demand. The US has named a date in early November beyond which they have threatened sanctions against any country which purchases oil from Iran. Iran has threatened a robust response in turn ... any disruption to oil exports transiting the narrow Strait of Hormuz will spell a global crisis. In that case, commercial aviation will be facing a depression for the ages. We should know within a month how this issue is playing out. If necessary, operators can slash capacity ahead of the January to March peak booking period.

There are geopolitical concerns elsewhere too. The EU27 has been keen to present an "all mates together" act in the face of Brexit. But that is a thin veneer. Seismic challenges to the Euro remain. Italy's deputy PM has described the Euro as "a crime against humanity". Italy is currently aiming to challenge the Euro membership criteria by passing a budget running a deficit of 3% of GDP ... nearly 4x the 0.8% threshold permitted under the rules. This will result in a showdown with Germany and the North (which seems to be what the Italian right wants). Italy's banking system is a 'dead man walking'; problems in Greece and Cyprus have been kicked down the road (not resolved). Spain and Portugal are concerns too. The EU leadership is quite content for Brexit to keep this mess out of the headlines.

But airlines and the travel industry must keep abreast of all these trends. Geopolitically, 2019 has the potential to become a very challenging year and Brexit is only a very minor part of that. They will need to keep tabs on stock and bond market indicators and monitor geopolitical tensions globally. If oil prices do spike, or if currency instability comes to pass, airlines will need to reduce capacity quickly. One positive for airlines serving the UK is that, as an island nation, flying is always a logical choice for international travel. Aircraft based in continental Europe are far more exposed to competition from rail and road alternatives.

 

[Ray Finkle]

In laws friends just booked from EMA and brother in law now going from LPL, all have been using BHX for several years so even more passengers lost

In real terms there is no cut in actual capacity as the TUi flights still operate as usual but it's a big cut in choice. Skiathos now has TUi as the only option (whereas EMA has both), meaning passengers who wanted that TCX holiday are going from elsewhere. If their experiences are good they may not return to BHX.

 

[rollo]

In laws friends just booked from EMA and brother in law now going from LPL, all have been using BHX for several years so even more passengers lost

I know it's only a small snapshot of leakage from the midlands but can you imagine the leakage to Orlando, sorry keep meaning not to keep mentioning Florida but TCX are up to 13 weekly to MCO next summer from MAN. BHX meanwhile nil, zilch, zero, diddly from them as presumably people have little choice but use the M6 or M40.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I know it's only a small snapshot of leakage from the midlands but can you imagine the leakage to Orlando, sorry keep meaning not to keep mentioning Florida but TCX are up to 13 weekly to MCO next summer from MAN. BHX meanwhile nil, zilch, zero, diddly from them as presumably people have little choice but use the M6 or M40.

Anecdotal I know but there doesn't seem to be a week go by that I don't meet someone who is off to Orlando and rarely is it from BHX.

Three families from our office are going in 2019, two from LGW and one from MAN, the common theme.....you can't fly to America from Birmingham!!!

 

[Ianbutty]

Anecdotal I know but there doesn't seem to be a week go by that I don't meet someone who is off to Orlando and rarely is it from BHX.

Three families from our office are going in 2019, two from LGW and one from MAN, the common theme.....you can't fly to America from Birmingham!!!

Same here in Essex. Everyone travels from Gatwick. A place I would never want to visit but I can see why people are very frustrated.

The US is not what it was once but it would still be nice to have a few business to business or even to OrDisneylando

 

[Karl C]

Morning,

Thomas Cook A320 EC-MVF on its way to BHX from Tallinn. Based I believe?

Cheers

Karl

 

[JENNYJET]

Not sure if this the correct thread but today I noticed on FR24 that a Thomas Cook A320 arrived at Kemble for I fear, parting out and a A330 arriving at Manchester operated by AirTanker possibly at the end of seasonal lease to be returned to RAF service. The A330 may possibly position in to MAEL for restoration to military standard before returning to Brize.

 

[smithy108]

This doesn't make good reading

All options open as Thomas Cook launches review of airlines division
Thomas Cook has announced a strategic review of its airline group after reporting a sharp rise in financial losses.
Although the company remains at an earlier stage in the review process, the travel agent said it would “consider all options to enhance value to shareholders” as it sought a solution to losses. The company added: “Our strategy for the airline has been to profitably grow as a leading European leisure airline with a reliable, customer-focused service.
“This has involved a continuous review of our cost structure in order to stay competitive in a highly fragmented market.”
It has been a tough winter for European airlines, with Germania recently following Joon, Monarch, Cobalt Air, Flybe, airBerlin and Primera Air, among others, out of the market.

Thomas Cook Airlines currently operates a fleet of 103 aircraft, of which a quarter serve long-haul destinations.
The airline carried over 20 million passengers and generated £3.5 billion in revenue, with underlying operating profits growing 37 per cent year-on-year to £129 million. The decision to review airline operations came as the group reported that losses for the three months to December 31st increased by £14 million to £60 million year-on-year.
Group revenue for the quarter was broadly unchanged, rising by one per cent on a like-for-like basis to £1.6 billion.
This was led by strong customer demand for Turkey and North African destinations, offsetting weaker demand for Spain.
But gross margins fell, reflecting a continuation of the “highly competitive” market conditions in the UK at the end of the summer, and weaker demand for winter holidays in the Nordics.

Peter Fankhauser, chief executive of Thomas Cook, commented: “As expected, the knock-on effect from the prolonged summer heatwave and high prices in the Canaries have impacted customer demand for winter sun.
“Where Summer 2018 bookings started very strongly, bookings for summer 2019 reflect some consumer uncertainty, particularly in the UK, and our decision to reduce capacity which will both mitigate risk in our tour operator business and help our airline to consolidate the strong growth achieved last year.” He added: “We have made further good progress in transforming our business with a rigorous focus on managing our cost base while innovating to deliver high-quality holidays for our customers.
“Our strategic alliance with Expedia is now live in all our key markets.” Thomas Cook is set to open 20 new own brand hotels this summer, including three Casa Cooks and eight Cook’s Clubs, and has announced two new hotel projects with Fosun in China.
Shares in Thomas Cook were up 11.5 per cent this morning, trading at 34 pence per share.

 

[Ryan Kirkpatrick]

TCX has a strong links between the UK & US from Manchester, Gatwick & Belfast. Don't know way they haven't added any US routes from Birmingham because out of all of the airlines that fly to the US. TCX seems to be the cheaper plus booking a hotel long with your flight. I looked at Manchester to New York for 5 nights & it was £400 for May with return. I think they might downsize there fleet & cut routes if not sold.