The Continuing Saga of Brexit...

[Aviador]

The sharp costs of Brexit will be felt soon enough
Britons will get poorer through prices rising more than wages, writes Rupert Pennant-Rea

https://www.ft.com/content/fdd5a8ca-691c-11e6-a0b1-d87a9fea034f

 

[Aviador]

According to the BBC, £1 will only 89 euro cents from ForExchange at Cardiff airport.

 

[Jerry]

Post Office online is offering $1.20 to the pound and 1.07 euro's to the pound. Fallen quite a way in May I got $1.46 t the pound!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It's highly likely that a continued poor £ exchange rate will have a negative effect on foreign holidays next year. The upside is that the UK will be cheaper for overseas tourists.

The £ fluctuates anyway to an extent. When we first went to Australia in 2010 one pound bought about 1.50 Australian dollars. In subsequent years the rate gradually improved until at one point last year we were getting over 2 Australian dollars for a pound. The rate is now on its way back towards 1.50 Australian dollars.

It has to be said though that the fall of the AUD against the GBP during recent years was mainly to do with the Australian economy and outlook. Brexit, or at least the uncertainty over what Brexit might bring, is now reversing that trend.

 

[Jerry]

Yes I think it will go up and down until we get some sort of certainty over Brexit and the UK's future relationship with the EU and the markets will react to every little thing to do with Brexit.

 

[Aviador]

The £ fluctuates anyway to an extent. When we first went to Australia in 2010 one pound bought about 1.50 Australian dollars. In subsequent years the rate gradually improved until at one point last year we were getting over 2 Australian dollars for a pound. The rate is now on its way back towards 1.50 Australian dollars.

Normal fiscal rules and the pound fluctuates. Brexit with no fiscal rules the pound fluctuates, downwards.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It's the uncertainty that does it, as with stock markets although these tend to react in the same direction globally these days with crises in individual countries having a relatively small influence on that country's markets.

Brexit has provided the uncertainty this time and as a result sterling is under huge pressure. In a few years it might all be seen to have been unnecessary but until (if) that time comes everyone plays safe and assumes the worst. Reducing our interest rate wasn't helpful to the pound either.

I mentioned Australia in a recent post. One of the drivers of a stronger GBP against the AUD last year was a reduction in the Australian interest rate that weakened the AUD. Brexit has weakened the GBP against the AUD is recent weeks, as the GBP has weakened against most if not all other currencies, but I haven't looked to see how resilient the AUD has been against other major currencies.

On my walk today I popped into the BRS terminal and noted this morning that the exchange rate there was 96 euros to the GBP. There were actually people at the counter buying at that rate.

 

[Jerry]

Well Brexit hasn't worried the Chinese much as they just signed a deal to increase the amount of routes to the UK and unlimit the destinations that airlines can fly to in China and the UK. Brexit will be good for some companies JCB has left the CBI because of its anti-Brexit stance. No one knows what will happen and now everyone has just got to wait and see and not listen to the politicians as they'll promise one thing and deliver another! Personally i believe the UK and EU will come to a deal that suits both sides.

 

[Aviador]

It's the uncertainty that does it, as with stock markets although these tend to react in the same direction globally these days with crises in individual countries having a relatively small influence on that country's markets.

Brexit has provided the uncertainty this time and as a result sterling is under huge pressure. In a few years it might all be seen to have been unnecessary but until (if) that time comes everyone plays safe and assumes the worst. Reducing our interest rate wasn't helpful to the pound either.

I mentioned Australia in a recent post. One of the drivers of a stronger GBP against the AUD last year was a reduction in the Australian interest rate that weakened the AUD. Brexit has weakened the GBP against the AUD is recent weeks, as the GBP has weakened against most if not all other currencies, but I haven't looked to see how resilient the AUD has been against other major currencies.

On my walk today I popped into the BRS terminal and noted this morning that the exchange rate there was 96 euros to the GBP. There were actually people at the counter buying at that rate.

At 96 euros per pound i'll buy some. In fact I'll draw my savings and get it cashed in.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

At 96 euros per pound i'll buy some. In fact I'll draw my savings and get it cashed in.

That's obviously why there was a queue at the counter. Would have been out of the door if the word had got around.

How important that little dot is.

 

[Aviador]

Worrying times ahead
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...s-on-uk-reserve-currency-status-as-brexit-ha/

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Until the way forward becomes clearer which will probably take several years the path will be rocky. I think even the most ardent Eurosceptics recognise this but they will come up with the old saying about 'no gain without pain', even though the Remain camp will probably only see pain and more pain with no gain at the end.

We are where we are though unless the current High Court application - that a referendum decision cannot be implemented without the consent of Parliament - succeeds, in which case Brexit might be scuppered. The High Court decision might be appealed to the Supreme Court. I'm not sure that it could be taken beyond that to the European Court of Justice which would be the supreme irony.

 

[Aviador]

Brexit deadlock could halt flights to Europe, warns Ryanair boss
Michael O’Leary attacks British ministers over their ‘mildly lunatic optimism’ and acting ‘like Dad’s Army’ in EU talks

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/22/brexit-europe-ryanair-michael-oleary-eu

 

[Aviador]

Some positive retail figures today with many of the main high street stores reporting better than expected results for the Christmas period so certainly for the time being at least, it's business as usual so far as Brexit goes. From an aviation perspective, hopefully the Christmas retail figures with transpire as bums on seats for the airlines.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

2017 wil be a good year. It will be when we depart the said union that may effect the travel industry. Whats more annoying is the continuing lack of any plan from the government. Come on MAY.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

You couldn't make it up. Give notice that the UK is leaving the EU then call a general election where Brexit is likely to be the dominant subject.

Cameron made a ghastly miscalculation when he allowed a referendum on EU membership never believing he would lose it. Now May is going in for a high stakes gamble that she will come out of the election in a stronger position. Nothing is certain in politics any more. Who would have seriously backed Trump to beat Clinton when they became the two nominees of their respective parties?

What if the Conservatives fail to win an overall majority? What if Labour can persuade the Lib Dems, Scots Nats and Plaid Cymru to join it in a massive coalition to outscore the Conservatives? In such a scenario it's pretty certain that the other parties would have demands as the price for their co-operation. The Scots Nats would want another referendum on independence for starters which might lead to independence this time.

Cameron has put the country into a parlous state with his failed gamble. Who is to say that May is not compounding his recklessness?

I don't know about others but after half a day I'm already sick and fed up with the general election. The news programmes have talked about nothing else all day it seems. We've got another seven weeks of this!

 

[Jerry]

It is a calculated gamble but i can't see May making the same mistake as Cameron. Labour are weak and are riven by division so have the most to lose. The Lib Dems will have the most to gain as they will put themselves forward as the Remain party. If the Conservatives manage to take a seat off the SNP then that will be a victory for them. I'd be surprised if UKIP gains any seats the same goes with Plaid Cymru. It will be an interesting election but i'd be very surprised if there isn't a significant Conservative majority at the end of it.

 

[Aviador]

Brexit for breakfast, Brexit for dinner, Brexit for tea and supper. Brexit in your dreams and nightmares. Brexit tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. Brexit for the next decade.

 

[wolfheze]

I'm not paying much attention to all this election stuff. Am too busy stocking up on tinned food and building my 'inner core or refuge ' under the dining table.

 

[Aviador]

I'm not paying much attention to all this election stuff. Am too busy stocking up on tinned food and building my 'inner core or refuge ' under the dining table.

??