I can see the situation now that the A380 might not happen except posibly Heathrow on some flights as B777 still carries a big load but also a lot of cargo which can make the difference between either a loss or a large profit. You can see what EK are doing at Manchester one flight is pax with belly cargo
and other is pure cargo and soon to have a mix of pax and cargo, my guess BHX will run a similar operation
 
Sorry, maybe I am coming across as entitled and demanding but I assure you that is not the case I simply do not understand how there is zero market in the Midlands right now.

Of course I understand covid and the affect that has had on the world. Currently my (not literally) TCS, TATA, Wipro staff are having to travel up and down the country to get to and from India.

What I do not understand, and I will never be able to understand is that there is no demand in the middle of the entire country to get anywhere.

The comment I made about first class again maybe it is / was a dying market. I wasn't really referring to whether people in the south are more inclined to fly F it was more about who decided there is no market in the middle of England for F? I mean they DID try it - on the 41/42 flights and got nothing. It would have been much better to introduce it on 37/38... doesn't matter anymore anyway.

Again its not that there's no demand from the Midlands, there's just reduced demand.

These are just fictitious numbers to help explain:

Say pre-Covid, Emirates flew a 300 seater aircraft to each of LHR, BHX and MAN. Loads and yields were good, and the routes were profitable. Since Covid, demand has dropped.

Pre-Covid:
LHR: 280 pax (93% LF - PROFIT)
MAN: 275 pax (92% LF - PROFIT)
BHX: 270 pax (90% LF - PROFIT)

Covid comes along and demand at ALL 3 AIRPORTS halves:
LHR: 140 pax (47% LF - LOSS)
MAN: 138 pax (46% LF - LOSS)
BHX: 135 pax (45% LF - LOSS)

Emirates continues to fly to LHR & MAN, but temporarily suspends BHX until demand improves. The BHX passengers continue to fly, but from LHR & MAN instead:
LHR: 208 pax (69% LF - Less LOSS/PROFIT)
MAN: 205 pax (68% LF - Less LOSS/PROFIT)

Again, nobody is saying there's no demand from the Midlands whilst there is from LHR & MAN - demand across all regions has dropped.
 
I can see the situation now that the A380 might not happen except posibly Heathrow on some flights as B777 still carries a big load but also a lot of cargo which can make the difference between either a loss or a large profit. You can see what EK are doing at Manchester one flight is pax with belly cargo
and other is pure cargo and soon to have a mix of pax and cargo, my guess BHX will run a similar operation

Emirates has already started bringing A380's back into service, with Heathrow, Paris, Guangzhou and Toronto now being served.

The A380 fleet is a huge asset for Emirates, they won't want them sitting there doing nothing for longer than they have to. They'd rather have both the B777 and A380 working at similar levels, than one fleet working maxed out, whilst the other barely does anything.

Pre-Covid BHX was served by 2 daily A380s. If Emirates replaced them with 2 daily B777's, that's 2 B777 that were serving other destinations before Covid, that no longer can be served.

I suspect we'll see a single daily A380 before we see a double daily B777 - replacing a 777 with an A380 would be a 44% increase in seats, whereas going double daily 777 from single daily 777 would be a 100% increase in seats.

We've not seen any solely cargo flights from Emirates at BHX, so I don't think the reduced cargo capacity of the A380 vs the B777 will be a problem when the time comes.
 
Is it me? Sorry - am I not explaining myself properly?

WHERE HAS EVERYONE GONE THAT WAS USING BHX?

Why is everyone out and about in Manchester and London but for some reason everyone is staying in bed in Birmingham?

Why right, were the A380s 70% full pre covid from BHX and now all of a sudden nobody wants to go anywhere? But everyone wants to fly from the south or the north?
 
Last edited:
Is it me? Sorry - am I not explaining myself properly?

WHERE HAS EVERYONE GONE THAT WAS USING BHX?

Why is everyone out and about in Manchester and London but for some reason everyone is staying in bed in Birmingham?

I am getting exasperated with your lack of understanding of what Coathanger 16 is try to explain. I will try, here goes:
Pre covid
Flight from BHX to DXB (or any other airport) 95% full, financially viable so flight operates.
Present time
Flight from BHX to DXB 40% full, not financially viable so flight does not operate. Those who wanted to fly go to another airport or stop at home.

Don't forget, an airline is in business to make money. So if it thinks it will not make money, it doesn't fly.

To finish on a happier note, demand will improve gradually, so the flights will come back.
 
Sorry, maybe I am coming across as entitled and demanding but I assure you that is not the case I simply do not understand how there is zero market in the Midlands right now.

Of course I understand covid and the affect that has had on the world. Currently my (not literally) TCS, TATA, Wipro staff are having to travel up and down the country to get to and from India.

What I do not understand, and I will never be able to understand is that there is no demand in the middle of the entire country to get anywhere.

The comment I made about first class again maybe it is / was a dying market. I wasn't really referring to whether people in the south are more inclined to fly F it was more about who decided there is no market in the middle of England for F? I mean they DID try it - on the 41/42 flights and got nothing. It would have been much better to introduce it on 37/38... doesn't matter anymore anyway.

Simply a case of not enough passengers to warrant re-instating BHX yet much easier filling some of the empty seats from LHR / MAN
Why fly more planes with very low load factors ?
 
I am getting exasperated with your lack of understanding of what Coathanger 16 is try to explain. I will try, here goes:
Pre covid
Flight from BHX to DXB (or any other airport) 95% full, financially viable so flight operates.
Present time
Flight from BHX to DXB 40% full, not financially viable so flight does not operate. Those who wanted to fly go to another airport or stop at home.

Don't forget, an airline is in business to make money. So if it thinks it will not make money, it doesn't fly.

To finish on a happier note, demand will improve gradually, so the flights will come back.

Maybe I am not explaining myself properly - if that is the case again I apologise, I'm nearly 50 years old I understand.

All I am trying to say is... where have these people gone? And why are they willing to fly from London and Manchester but not Birmingham? I don't care how full it was pre or post covid. Where have those 95% / 40% gone? And why are they willing to to fly from London and Manchester?

We used to command two 380's a day, whether they were full or not does't matter - where has everyone gone that used to get on either of those flights?
 
EK can't fill their flights from MAN or BHX so the passengers that would usually fly from BHX are being 'used' to fill the MAN flights, at present there is insufficient demand to fill both flights. They are still flying, just from MAN.
 
Maybe I am not explaining myself properly - if that is the case again I apologise, I'm nearly 50 years old I understand.

All I am trying to say is... where have these people gone? And why are they willing to fly from London and Manchester but not Birmingham? I don't care how full it was pre or post covid. Where have those 95% / 40% gone? And why are they willing to to fly from London and Manchester?

We used to command two 380's a day, whether they were full or not does't matter - where has everyone gone that used to get on either of those flights?
The demand is not there, advance bookings are very poor !
So if you want to go Emirates for the time being it is LHR/MAN or GLA
No BHX/STN/LGW/NCL or EDI
BHX will be back at 2 x A388 eventually but not until things pick up.
Simple !
 
it me? Sorry - am I not explaining myself properly?

WHERE HAS EVERYONE GONE THAT WAS USING BHX?
They have gone to the same place the people who used to fly to Brussels,Vienna,Copengagen,Jersey,Inverness etc.All available from airports bigger,similar and snaller than BHX
I fear for the future when the European wide route cull,the one that nobody talkes about hopeing it wil go away comes.
 
Maybe I am not explaining myself properly - if that is the case again I apologise, I'm nearly 50 years old I understand.

All I am trying to say is... where have these people gone? And why are they willing to fly from London and Manchester but not Birmingham? I don't care how full it was pre or post covid. Where have those 95% / 40% gone? And why are they willing to to fly from London and Manchester?

We used to command two 380's a day, whether they were full or not does't matter - where has everyone gone that used to get on either of those flights?

The BHX passengers aren't choosing to fly from LHR or MAN - Emirates is making them to make its operation profitable!

There are not enough passengers to fill planes at LHR and at MAN and at BHX. There is enough however to fill planes from 2 of those airports. Emirates chose LHR and MAN because they gave the best chance of returning a profit.
 
We used to command two 380's a day, whether they were full or not does't matter - where has everyone gone that used to get on either of those flights?

Quite simply everyone who used to get on these flights now either doesn’t need to, doesn’t have to or doesn’t want to. I sincerely doubt the LHR and MAN flights are operating at 100% capacity. Anyone who genuinely needs to fly out of the U.K. via EK will simply have to travel to another airport. And where do you think everyone is travelling too? Australia and New Zealand are closed. India? China? Iran? South Africa?
 
Something was doing well yesterday as we had 2 B777 yesterday one was cargo but with pax flight no, we will need to wait for July and August figures.
Some airlines are doing well i:e Lufthansa, KLM and Air France plus of course Ryanair and Easyjet.One of my customers flies about once a week and he say the MAN-FRA usually almost full.
 
Seems confirmed now back on 1st Sep, they’ve issued a press release just today:


4x weekly 777
 
Seems confirmed now back on 1st Sep, they’ve issued a press release just today:


4x weekly 777


Great news (y)
 

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