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Airport Master Plan for next 30 Years - Consultation

Jerry

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Nevertheless, option C (second termial on Southside) was easily the favourite amongst the public and other consultees yet it is the one the airport has discarded. It makes you wonder if this consultation is merely lip service being paid. It's a bit like Brian Clough who when asked if he listened to the views of his staff replied, "Of course, then I do what I was going to do in the first place'".
The airport will already have it's own vision of what it wants to do and i can't see a consultation changing it. The consultation is just a PR exercise.
 

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TheLocalYokel

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I found this short video from Simon Earles, BRS planning director, outlining the next stage of the consultation process.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Today's BRS press release has a bearing on the new master plan so I've posted it here.

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/ab...6/government-support-existing-runway-capacity


Bristol Airport Welcomes Government Support for Making Best Use of Existing Runway Capacity


Created: 5th Jun 2018

Bristol Airport has welcomed the Government’s confirmation of its support for airports throughout the UK making best use of their existing runways.

Simon Earles, Planning & Sustainability Director at Bristol Airport, said:
“The Government recognises that aviation matters more than ever in providing the connectivity the country needs. By providing clear policy support for airports with plans for sustainable growth, the Government has given lift-off to regions like the South West where demand for air travel is forecast to increase.

“The next challenge is to deliver better connections to the road and rail network, making it easier for passengers across the UK to access their local airport. Air travel should be part of an integrated transport network, and enhancing surface links is key to unlocking the full economic potential of regional airports by making best use of existing capacity.”

Bristol Airport is currently preparing a new Master Plan which will set out potential development required to handle up to 20 million passengers per annum from the existing runway by the mid-2040s. The first phase of this growth will be facilitated through the submission of a planning application to our local authority later this year. Currently the ninth busiest airport in the UK, and the fifth largest outside London, Bristol Airport handled 8.1 million passengers in 2017. Existing planning permission is already in place for facilities to handle up to ten million passengers a year, but this capacity is expected to be reached early in the next decade as demand for air travel to and from the South West of the UK continues to rise.
 

TheLocalYokel

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TheLocalYokel

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If the residents decide to sell homes to the airport then no doubt they will get a good price over what they are worth.
Some seem quite keen on the idea. When the results of the first phase of the consultation were made public a few weeks ago the local tv news interviewed a local farmer who appeared very enthusiastic about the prospect of selling land to the airport.
 

TheLocalYokel

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I meant to add in my post #124 above, the Bristol Post article asserts that the airport is looking to handle 40 million passengers a year by 2050. That's certainly news to the airport. Perhaps the Post knows something the airport doesn't.:jawdrop:
 

Jerry

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I meant to add in my post #124 above, the Bristol Post article asserts that the airport is looking to handle 40 million passengers a year by 2050. That's certainly news to the airport. Perhaps the Post knows something the airport doesn't.:jawdrop:
40????
 

superking

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I meant to add in my post #124 above, the Bristol Post article asserts that the airport is looking to handle 40 million passengers a year by 2050. That's certainly news to the airport. Perhaps the Post knows something the airport doesn't.


Perhaps the local rag would like to explain where and how they got these figures.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Major plans to expand Bristol Airport so it can fly an extra 2 million passengers a year
Bristol Airport Limited would like to see 20 million people flying from the Lulsgate Bottom transport hub by the mid 2040s

Bristol Post carries an article today regarding the airport's planning applications to increase passneger numbers and expand facilities.

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/major-plans-expand-bristol-airport-1950283
Will the airport be able to reach the dizzy heights of 20mppa without increasing the average size of aircraft used?
 

TheLocalYokel

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Will the airport be able to reach the dizzy heights of 20mppa without increasing the average size of aircraft used?
If they ever get to that level it will be 25 years from now. Currently the only long haul aircraft that can offer realistic long haul capability for a reasonable distance is the B787-8, with the longest sector being Bristol-Cancun with TUI at present, although on occasions the outbound has to fuel-stop at MAN if the winds are particularly adverse.

TUI is starting to use the 787 for short haul at BRS next year with Dubrovnik and Larnaca scheduled for the type. The 787 has already replaced the 757 on Sal, Cape Verde (on one week this summer a 787-9 stood in but Cape Verde is not ultra long distance), and this summer also operates to Orlando Sanford and Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic each week.

BRS can and does operate an A 330-200 at times but a B777 is too big and it's likely the A350, even the smallest version, might be too big for transatlantic non-stop with a full load.

There are no plans for a runway extension. It seems that BRS, a very profitable airport for its owners, is ideally suited for short haul. LHR is just up the road and caters for the region's long haul scheduled for the most part.

The immediate passenger projections are 10mppa by 2021 and 12 mppa by 2025 which can probably be achieved with basically more of the same that the airport sees at present.
 

TheLocalYokel

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superking

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https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/bristol-airports-grand-plans-double-2290589

A Green Party member of the West of England Combined Authority and an independent councillor don't believe that Bristol Airport should continue to expand because of the effect on carbon emissions.
If BRS don't expand,someone else will.Could be a case of expand but not near to me where I live.
There was talk back along to move fuel farm to another site on airfield with under ground tanks.Is this still so or its staying where they are for the time being.The fire station moving soon so if fuel farm was moved it would be quite a large site for some thing to be developed.
 

TheLocalYokel

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If BRS don't expand,someone else will.Could be a case of expand but not near to me where I live.
There was talk back along to move fuel farm to another site on airfield with under ground tanks.Is this still so or its staying where they are for the time being.The fire station moving soon so if fuel farm was moved it would be quite a large site for some thing to be developed.
Precisely. if BRS doesn't grow others will and and the carbon emissions question will be equally applicable; it would be as you say - not in my back yard.

I don't know the answer to the fuel farm question. Perhaps someone else on F4A will know.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Wrington village website

http://www.wringtonsomerset.org.uk/index.htm

https://wringtonsomerset.org.uk/topical/newsextra/2018/airportexpansionobjection.html

The above links relate to the Wrington village website and a letter written by an unnamed local resident who is opposed to airport expansion, and comments in particular on the airport's recent planning applications to enable it to handle 12 mppa. Bristol Airport lies within the Wrington Parish Council area although the village itself is a couple of miles or so from the airport in the lee of a hill.

The letter writer asserts that the current expansion planning applications are driven solely by a profit motive on the part of the airport’s Canadian and Australian owners who, the writer avers, pay very little UK tax. The writer believes that In the absence of clear advantages to the area that outweigh disadvantages, the applications should be rejected by the local authority.

The writer does concede that the airport is an important asset in that it facilitates travel, brings people to the area and creates employment. However he/she believes that expansion is unlikely to create a significant number of jobs for local people and there is no evidence that increased capacity will provide increased economic benefits for the region. Business passenger movements are said to remain small and fairly static with a suggested figure of 17% of total passenger movements.

Expansion will also cause noise and pollution levels to rise, will saturate roads and other infrastructure will damage the landscape and environment.

The writer also has other concerns including the possibility of an increased number of night flights in the future, unofficial car parks bringing an influx of cars to country lanes and the possibility of the airport being taken out of the Green Belt.

The letter concludes by stating that a number of groups are planning to oppose the applications.

Naturally the letter contains only points that support one side of the argument and, although I would take issue with some of the quoted ‘facts’, I found it to be a measured exposition.

In the past Wrington PCC has opposed major expansion of the airport despite many local people working there. It’s somewhat ironic then given that Wrington’s twinning association with Villeneuve-lès-Béziers in the Herault Languedoc region of southern France came about entirely as the result of the Ryanair service from Bristol to Beziers, as the PCC admits on its website.

I’m not sure about the tax situation. Some years ago it was alleged by opponents that the airport owners paid little corporation tax - there was no suggestion it involved any illegality.

The overseas owners have invested huge amounts of money into the airport over the past two decades to the benefit of the region in jobs and and the economy. The airport says that if its current applications are approved the region’s economy would benefit to the tune £1.4 billion over the next ten years.

17% of this year’s overall passenger movements would equate to nearly 1.5 million business travel movements which I believe is not insignificant. Four years ago 17% would have resulted in just over one million so the number of business travel movements is rising substantially.

The noise and pollution arguments are valid to a degree but the airport is making great progress in this field within its boundaries, although it has less control over associated activities beyond the airfield itself.

However as someone who grew up in the Wrington parish in the 1950s and early 1960s and who still has relatives and friends in the area who I visit frequently, I have no doubt that the traffic argument, especially the A38 situation, is overdone. Since my time living in the parish most of the traffic on the A38, especially at 'rush hour' times, is the result of the huge expansion of Wrington and other local villages that has brought about an army of commuters working in Bristol. In fact, prior to the construction of the M5 in the early 1970s the A38 was the trunk road from the North/Midlands to the South West and was busier then than now, especially with heavy lorries. Furthermore, parts of the A38 including Barrow Hill and Redhill have been widened since I lived at the side of the A38 near the bottom of Redhill.

So, although I have a tiny amount of empathy with airport expansion opponents, many (most if my straw polls in the area are anywhere near accurate) are people who have moved to the local villages since the airport began to grow, and in fact by their numbers probably cause more pollution and noise in the area than does the airport.

I've highlighted this letter as no doubt it will be typical of the objections that will be made regarding the airport's planning applications. In fact, some will probably be less constrained than this letter and come from people and groups who have agendas stretching far beyond the expansion of Bristol Airport.

We hear the same arguments about pollution and traffic congestion every time the airport applies to grow, right back to the time the plans were submitted for the current terminal in its original form that would allow a doubling of the airport's one million annual passenger numbers in the early 1990s.
 

Marko1

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Interesting point I’ve noticed in the planning documents and I quote ‘ the brs management assume 6 additional based aircraft by the summer of 2026 increasing the total based aircraft from 31 to 37. ‘ Is that an unambitious target or what they take as a future plan?
 

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Interesting point I’ve noticed in the planning documents and I quote ‘ the brs management assume 6 additional based aircraft by the summer of 2026 increasing the total based aircraft from 31 to 37. ‘ Is that an unambitious target or what they take as a future plan?
I assume they regard the current based complement (in summer) as:

15 easyJet
5 flybmi
4 Ryanair
4 TUI
3 Thomas Cook
Total 31

In addition KLM night stops as does the TUI B787 for part of some nights.

On the face of it another six based aircraft, even of the size of the B737MAX10, would probably not in themselves add more than two million passengers to the annual total, if that.

However, there is a recent parallel that might give us an idea. In the four years from the end of 2014 the airport will have added over 2.3 million annual passengers. In the same period the airport has seen six based aircraft added, albeit partly in summer only. They are three easyJet, two TUI and one Thomas Cook. 2.3 million added to the 2018 likely total would take the annual figure to touching 11 million. Only two of the six aircraft were in place for the entire four years; the others were added gradually through the rest of the period.

If an additional six based aircraft arrived well in advance of 2025, or even if some of them did as would be likely, that would together with non-based operations and larger based aircraft (see below) put the 12 mppa 2025 projection in reach.

History tells us that BRS has been growing its passengers numbers disproportionately higher than the rise in the number of aircraft operating.

A look at the airport's Operations Monitoring Report for 2017 (the latest available publicly) shows that in 2005 there were 84,000 atms to handle 5.199 million passengers, whereas in 2017 76,000 atms accounted for 8.234 million passengers. The reason is doubtless twofold: larger aircraft and higher load factors. From 2002 until 2017 the passenger load per aircraft increased by over 60% at a steady rising progression.

More larger aircraft are likely between now and 2025/6. For example, easyJet will see its A321 almost certainly in at least reasonable evidence by then and flybmi might be upgrading its own aircraft. I would also expect TUI B737MAX10s and Thomas Cook might have an all A321 base. I understand it's getting towards that this year with a third 321 alternating with the 320 this coming summer.

Operating more flights by non-based aircraft might also increase. Already in summer Ryanair operates what is the equivalent of a 6/7 aircraft base. In 2013 following a fall-out with the airport Ryanair reduced its then 5-aircraft base to 2 but maintained its schedules by operating many more flights from its other bases. That brought the operational advantage of arrivals and departures occurring away from the peak times.

So another six based aircraft, some larger than before, together with perhaps more flights from non-based aircraft ought to have the potential to bring about that 12 mppa by the mid 2020s.

Of course such things can only ever be projections because no-one knows what will happen to thwart them - Brexit is perhaps the imminent threat to UK aviation, and few foresaw the major recession of the 'noughties' that had a significant negative impact on the industry including many airports. BRS fared better than most at that time being negatively affected less than many other airports and for a shorter period.

The previous senior management team showed a remarkable prescience in its 2005 master plan passenger number projections.

It projected:

9.271 million by 2020 - 2018 will finish around 8.65 million and 2019 is forecast to break the 9 million barrier
10.812 million by 2025 - has been revised in the past year or so to be 12 million by 2025
12.476 million by 2030 - that will have to be revised if 12 mppa is reached by 2025
 

Marko1

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It certainly looks exciting times. I’m guessing the bulk of these extra 6 aircraft would probably come from easyjet unless an airline with a red tail and a number on its title rocks up
 

TheLocalYokel

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It certainly looks exciting times. I’m guessing the bulk of these extra 6 aircraft would probably come from easyjet unless an airline with a red tail and a number on its title rocks up
If Jet2 does eventually spread itself south-westwards the fact that TUI seems to be currently building CWL and EXT whilst not doing much extra at BRS in the coming summer in terms of extra routes/rotations (and reducing seat capacity if 738s replace 757s), BRS might find itself in a potentially more favourable situation than hitherto given that Jet2 is increasingly becoming more of a rival to TUI and Thomas Cook rather than to the locos.
 

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