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The Continuing Saga of Brexit... (Part II)

Comments

I wonder how many of the pro-Remain MP's who voted down May's deal are now regretting it?

May herself had indicated that failure to pass the deal would lead to her resignation. When they voted her deal down they didn't seem to be planning for what her replacement might do, whereas this situation we are in now is precisely the outcome desired by the ERG and their allies when they voted against May.

The omens grew stronger as pro-Remain Conservatives began defecting. That left a larger proportion of Brexiteers among the Tory members tasked with choosing the next PM. There had already been plenty of demand among Brexiteers as a whole for May to step aside and let a Brexiteer PM "get the job done".

I don't want no deal in the least. But I feel many pro-remain MP's have acted short-sightedly, either in their desire to prevent any form of Brexit, or to bring the government down, or to keep their part of the UK in the EU. By opposing May's deal it seems they have ended up playing right into the hands of the Brexiters.
 

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I don't want no deal in the least. But I feel many pro-remain MP's have acted short-sightedly, either in their desire to prevent any form of Brexit, or to bring the government down, or to keep their part of the UK in the EU. By opposing May's deal it seems they have ended up playing right into the hands of the Brexiter
Or now guarantees a vote of no confidence passes leading to a labour government or most likely a general election where Boris will portray it as Parliament vs the people.
Even if Brexit happens at least half the country will be very angry which will forever change their voting patterns for at least a generation.
 
I don't want no deal in the least. But I feel many pro-remain MP's have acted short-sightedly, either in their desire to prevent any form of Brexit, or to bring the government down, or to keep their part of the UK in the EU. By opposing May's deal it seems they have ended up playing right into the hands of the Brexiter
Or now guarantees a vote of no confidence passes leading to a labour government or most likely a general election where Boris will portray it as Parliament vs the people.
Even if Brexit happens at least half the country will be very angry which will forever change their voting patterns for at least a generation.
 
Or if Brexit doesn't happen the other half will be extremely angry.

And the man who is responsible is quietly contemplating the royalties for his new book.

Yes but that half will slowly get smaller over time as new generations of voters come through as generally young voters tend to be more pro EU than older voters.
 
Yes but that half will slowly get smaller over time as new generations of voters come through as generally young voters tend to be more pro EU than older voters.
There is no certainty that as the new generations become older they will all want to be in the EU, or even a majority. If the UK does leave no-one knows what will be the situation in the country in 10-20 years time. It might have turned into a seemingly insurmountable never-ending crisis, as some predict, or it might in fact have worked out well for the country. No-one can possibly know at the moment. In 1940 few people within and without the country thought that the UK could survive the German onslaught. We might not have done had Hitler not halted his troops outside Dunkirk or shilly-shallied over his invasion plans later that year. The point is that the future is impossible to predict with any certainty.

It's arguing against fact for anyone to believe, as some people do believe, that the older generation was mainly responsible for the vote to Leave.

The reason this seems to have become almost common currency is that people mistakenly confuse percentages with actual numbers. It's true that a much greater percentage of older voters voted to Leave but it was a much greater percentage of a much lower base figure.

In 2016 for every 285 people in the UK over 65 there were 1,000 between 16 and 64. Whilst 16 and 17-year-olds didn't have a vote the number of of people 18-64 was still much larger than those 65 and over. Even if every person over 65 voted to Leave (they didn't) it would still have been nowhere near enough to have secured the Leave majority. In fact, it needed (and got) many more people under 65 to vote to Leave than those over 65.

At the moment Leaving with no deal makes me feel extremely uncomfortable (it might transpire in the years ahead that this was an unnecessary worry, or it might not), but Leaving with a deal would almost certainly mean some tie-up with the EU through a single market and customs union with the European Court of Justice inevitably retaining a say over the UK in the legal interpretations. There might still be an on-going financial implication too. In other words, we remain as almost associate members of the EU but with no say. Did most of those who voted to Leave think they were voting for that? I don't know. Perhaps they did but, if they did, it would be a strange thought process in my view. Then again, there are those who believe that anyone who voted to Leave for whatever reason had a peculiar thought process.
 
In 2016 for every 285 people in the UK over 65 there were 1,000 between 16 and 64. Whilst 16 and 17-year-olds didn't have a vote the number of of people 18-64 was still much larger than those 65 and over. Even if every person over 65 voted to Leave (they didn't) it would still have been nowhere near enough to have secured the Leave majority. In fact, it needed (and got) many more people under 65 to vote to Leave than those over 65.
The problem was though that only about a third of 18-24 voted in the referendum compared to a much higher percentage of the older generation. I'm not blaming the older generation I personally blame the younger generation for being apathetic and not using the vote given to them. Yes no one can predict the future but a generation that has grown up in the EU is more europhile and has watched as they were taken out of the EU without a say as many growing up currently are experiencing may well be inclined towards being more pro European than the previous generation or the generation before that.
I do believe that the one of the positives to come out of Brexit will be to teach people that there vote does matter and make people more politically engaged.
 
The UK joined the European Community ('CommonMarket') on 1 January 1973 under the Heath Conservative government. Two and half years later Wilson's Labour government held a referendum for voters to decide if the UK should remain in the EC. On a 65% turnout the result was overwhelming with 67% saying we should remain.

I wonder how many of the older voters who voted to Leave in the 2016 referendum voted to Remain in the 1975 referendum when they would have been in their 30s. From the percentages it would seem likely that it was a significant number.

People do change their views as they get older and the EC of 1975 was a completely different animal to the EU of 2016. Forty years ago it was little more than a market for the benefit of its member countries. We know it's far more than that now.
 
The UK joined the European Community ('CommonMarket') on 1 January 1973 under the Heath Conservative government. Two and half years later Wilson's Labour government held a referendum for voters to decide if the UK should remain in the EC. On a 65% turnout the result was overwhelming with 67% saying we should remain.

I wonder how many of the older voters who voted to Leave in the 2016 referendum voted to Remain in the 1975 referendum when they would have been in their 30s. From the percentages it would seem likely that it was a significant number.

People do change their views as they get older and the EC of 1975 was a completely different animal to the EU of 2016. Forty years ago it was little more than a market for the benefit of its member countries. We know it's far more than that now.
In 1973, even though it wasn't anything we had a say in, I was quite happy for us to become 'European' even though we know now that we were fed a load of codswallop by the politicians responsible and that the whole thing was a stitch-up from start to finish.

Over the intervening years, those of us who were around then, have seen how bureaucrats in Brussels have managed to change significantly the way the EU is governed and the direction in which it is heading in the future. As an example the Common Market, which was all about trade and trading within the bloc, which I and the majority in this Country were, and remain, happy with, see the EU moving towards some sort of Federal system where Brussels will oversee and dictate everything, from our national budgets to when we send troops into battle. That isn't what we signed up for is it?

That is probably why so may people voted to leave the EU. The older ones amongst us have seen the the European dream unfolding and voted that we didn't want to be part of what it looks like becoming in the future. I was one who gave a big thumbs up to the idea in 1973 but changed my mind by the time 2016 came around. So we, as individuals and nations, do change our minds over time. It is quite a natural thing to do based on experience.

Having said all of that the disgraceful way our own politicians have behaved over the last three years has left me totally confused and, rightly or wrongly, in contempt of all politicians whether in Brussels or Westminster. To say that I don't care any more is probably an understatement.

However I do get the opportunity every few years or so of voting in or out our local MP, a luxury I am not endowed with as far as the Brussels bureaucrats are concerned. So I'll stick with our own flawed political system thank you and just keep tearing my hair out when the mood takes me.
 
However I do get the opportunity every few years or so of voting in or out our local MP, a luxury I am not endowed with as far as the Brussels bureaucrats are concerned. So I'll stick with our own flawed political system thank you and just keep tearing my hair out when the mood takes me.
Actually the EU political system is very much like the UK. You vote for your MEPs and then they vote for head of the EU parliament and the head of the EU council is voted in by the heads of governments who are all democratically elected.
 
In 1973, even though it wasn't anything we had a say in, I was quite happy for us to become 'European' even though we know now that we were fed a load of codswallop by the politicians responsible and that the whole thing was a stitch-up from start to finish.

Over the intervening years, those of us who were around then, have seen how bureaucrats in Brussels have managed to change significantly the way the EU is governed and the direction in which it is heading in the future. As an example the Common Market, which was all about trade and trading within the bloc, which I and the majority in this Country were, and remain, happy with, see the EU moving towards some sort of Federal system where Brussels will oversee and dictate everything, from our national budgets to when we send troops into battle. That isn't what we signed up for is it?

That is probably why so may people voted to leave the EU. The older ones amongst us have seen the the European dream unfolding and voted that we didn't want to be part of what it looks like becoming in the future. I was one who gave a big thumbs up to the idea in 1973 but changed my mind by the time 2016 came around. So we, as individuals and nations, do change our minds over time. It is quite a natural thing to do based on experience.

Having said all of that the disgraceful way our own politicians have behaved over the last three years has left me totally confused and, rightly or wrongly, in contempt of all politicians whether in Brussels or Westminster. To say that I don't care any more is probably an understatement.

However I do get the opportunity every few years or so of voting in or out our local MP, a luxury I am not endowed with as far as the Brussels bureaucrats are concerned. So I'll stick with our own flawed political system thank you and just keep tearing my hair out when the mood takes me.
Excellent summary of the change that the 'Common Market' has undergone over the past 40 years and why many people have become disenchanted with it.
 
I think it's a good idea that they lay their cards out on the table so people know exactly what they are voting for. With no prospect of a confirmatory second referendum looking likely i'd say it's one way of ensuring people have a clear choice in any looming future general election. Labour or more to the point Jeremy Corbin is still sitting on the fence and dithering. Or at least that is the impression but by all accounts he is avid Brexiteer seemingly going against the Labour party's overall consensus.

With only 46 days until the UK leaves the EU (the countdown clock is on the homepage) assuming there's no further political or legal challenge, I'm firmly battening down the hatches and awaiting the political and economic meltdown to ensue. (yes, I really am.)

Who's going to be the first on here to admit it was a really bad idea, or are we truly heading for a land of unicorns and utopia?

Incidentally, ASDA are selling Brexit crumpets. I couldn't stop laughing when I saw these....

14594
 
What do we all think about the new Lib Dem idea of just revoking Article 50? Has it got legs?
Some have suggested that the new law requiring the PM to either reach a deal or ask for an extension makes remaining the default position as it could render Article 50 void in the eyes of the EU if the PM fails to do either.

Apparently we have fewer than 200 customs officials at Dover. If we leave with no deal we will need more than 4000 officials, and it's impossible to meet that number by the current deadline due to the length of their training programmes and us not being prepared for no deal until very recently.

Given this fact, many business and Dover customs management will want to know if the status quo can be maintained, which may force an EU inquest into whether we have complied with both Article 50 and the new law.
 
Autobiography out from David Cameron, mentioned in Times , harsh words towards B Johnson , P Patel and Gove.

Said Johnson changed to 'Leave'purely to hopefully aid his career. Nothing to do with what was best for UK.

Mind you David Cameron got us into this mess in the first place.
Quite right Carl. However before we take too much notice of what any of them say we must remember that they are POLITICIANS and therefore say whatever they think is going to do them the most good (Cameron included of course)

After all he is currently trying to flog his book isn't he. He is also the one, as you rightly point out, that got us into this mess in the first place, which is even a better reason to ignore the words he utters.

Johnson, whilst thinking of himself throughout this lot, is at least is capable of making a decision. Whether that decision is right or wrong depends on your point of view. My view, for what it is worth is that his career as PM may be a very short one indeed. Never had any time for the 'brainy' one Gove as I didn't trust him at all.

As someone else has said Corbyn is still sitting on the fence really so must have so many splinters in his backside by now that he must really be in awful pain. Or do they teach them how to ignore pain at politicians school?

So to answer my own earlier question - Yes I do think the Lib Dem revocation idea has got legs if it is passed at their Conference as there are so many folk up and down the land so brassed off with it all and any deal that can be agreed with the EU is only going to be a variation of the lousy one that was defeated previously. If that is the case then it is a no brainer or I am missing something? Getting a majority in Westminster is something else however.
 

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