Global Warming or Global Cooling?

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What are your thoughts on climate change? For the last two decades at lest we have been spoon fed a global warming agenda, "the Earth is burning up", our "use of fossil fuels is causing Co2 to spiral out of control". More recently the IPCC lead by the United Nations released a report saying we have to take immediate action to save the planet from catastrophe.

During the 90's I went along with this narrative. As a person who has always been interested in weather and the climate I have always followed the subject with much interest and like most people I went along with the idea that man was warming the planet due to his excessive use of fossil fuel causing Co2 to warm the planet.

More recently, and certainly over the last five years or so I have changed my opinion on what is going on. Over the years the narrative has changed from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change". Several new reports have been released stating we're heading for a "mini ice age". Like everybody else I was confused and baffled at the mixed message coming from scientists. Since the beginning of this "global catastrophe" I have wondered why the IPCC wasn't looking at why the earth had warmed in the past? Why we've had ice ages before? Why we've had extinction events in the past?

The more and more I look at it the more convinced I am that the climate doesn't follow a linear path, but it oscillates between hot and cold, wet and dry. The IPCC temperate graph showing the temperature spiralling out of control. It doesn't show the previous Maunder Minimum or the Dalton Minimum when the climate was significantly cooler. Sudden changes in the Earth's temperature have thought to have been linked to the Sun and solar activity. Currently we are in a solar minimum. Over the next year or so we climb out of a solar minimum into a solar maximum. This is measured by the number of sun spots. During a maximum, sun spots are plentiful but the opposite can be said during a solar minimum. You would expect this to be good news but the latest predictions for the new solar maximum is grim reading as the Science is pointing closer and closer to the planet heading rapidly into a "Solar Grand Minimum" ,similar to the Maunder Minimum.

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Maunder Minimum 1645 - 1715.

Earlier this month Professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University released her latest findings regarding sun activity which showed almost exact correlation between the suns activity and previous solar minimums. She makes some significant predictions during her findings.

Little Iceage to hit Earth in 2020
A ‘Little Ice Age’ which caused severe winters in the 17th Century could return in five years’ time due to a predicted fall in solar activity.
This possibility was discussed during the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales, by Prof Valentina Zharkova, of Northumbria University, alongside an international group of scientists including Prof Simon Shepherd, of Bradford University, Dr E Popova, of Moscow State University, and Dr Sergei Zharkov, of Hull University.
Prof Zharkova described the research as ‘the first serious prediction of a reduction of solar activity that might affect human lives’. If the decrease in solar activity takes place, it could result in a period similar to the ‘Maunder minimum’ of 1645 to 1700. During this period, there were only about 50 sunspots on the surface of the Sun instead of the usual 40-50 thousand, resulting in very severe winters and cold summers.
Several studies have shown that the ‘Maunder Minimum’ coincided with the coldest phase of global cooling, which was called the ‘Little Ice Age’. Due to the cold winters in Europe and North America, rivers such as the Thames and the Danube froze and the Moscow River was covered by ice every six months.
Prof Zharkova’s research is based on an analysis of solar activity. The Sun has its own magnetic field whose amplitude and spatial configuration varies with time. The formation and decay of strong magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere results in changes of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, the intensity of plasma flows, and the number of sunspots on its surface, which varies every 11 years.
In the current study, the researchers analysed a total background magnetic field from full disk magnetograms by applying the so-called ‘principal component analysis’. As a result, the researchers uncovered a pair of magnetic waves in the Sun responsible for variations during 11-year solar activity. The scientists managed to derive the analytical formulae, describing these two waves and made first the prediction of magnetic activity in the current cycle, which gave 97% accuracy.
Inspired by this success, Zharkova and her co-authors extended the prediction of solar activity to future cycles. They discovered that the waves become fully separated into the opposite hemispheres leading to a sharp decline in solar activity in years 2020 t0 2050 – comparable with the conditions of the Maunder minimum in the 17th Century. This will lead to a reduction of the solar magnetic field and a noticeable decrease in solar irradiance.
Speaking about her confidence in her team’s work, Prof Zharkova added: “I am absolutely confident in our research. It has good mathematical background and reliable data, which has been handled correctly. In fact, our results can be repeated by any researchers with the similar data available in many solar observatories, so they can derive their own evidence of upcoming Maunder Minimum in solar magnetic field and activity.”
Following Prof Zharkova’s prediction at last week’s conference, the story has captured the public imagination with stories across the international press in the UK, USA, Australia, Germany, France, China, Russia, New Zealand, Canada, Singapore and many other countries including The Independent, The Telegraph, and Science Daily(UK), ABC News, USA Today, Washington Post, New York Times. Australia Today and numerous other newspapers and radio stations worldwide.
Prof Zharkova said: “The public imagination has been captured by the first serious prediction of a reduction of solar activity that might affect the human lives – as it did in the 17thCentury. Solar-terrestrial physics literarily enters everyone’s house – this is the main beauty of the event.”
Prof Zharkova, who works in the Department of Mathematics and Information Sciences at Northumbria, believes the research further positions the University as a leader in this area.
She said: “Yes, I think so, given what we have done so far. Previously, in 1998, we with Dr A Kosovichev, of Stanford University, USA, discovered quakes on the Sun associated with solar flares, which were reported in Nature covered by the worldwide media on five continents. This topic continues to be one of the most interested in for the past decade. Now we decided to report the new finding on solar activity at the National Astronomy Meeting to enhance the profile of the UK science and to emphasise the contribution of three UK collaborators, including Northumbria.”
Northumbria offers a range of courses across Physics, Astrophysics, and Mathematics disciplines and has recently announced investment of £6.7m in STEM facilities on campus. For more information about studying at Northumbria go to: www.northumbria.ac.uk/courses
http://www.northumbria.ac.uk/courses
 
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Did you say something? All I see is you quoted that’s all.

As for doing something I agree. But £1.7 trillion pounds, destroying an industry which when it’s up and running is one of the best are research and innovation, is not the way. Maybe trump was right - we are just seeing the earth go through it’s natural warming up cycle.

Ultimately it needs to be done on an international scale. What we need to do? Well stop Brazil pulling down the rain forest, continue to invest in Africa’s Green belt (planting trees from one end to the other E to W to stop advancement of deserts), no fishing zones to allow our eco system to re bound around the world in the sea. All these things eat away at carbon and produce oxygen.
 
Joking a side, there are serious issues in the world with the climate, unheard heat in British Columbia, Fires in Northern Russia above the Artic Circle, melting permafrost, dreadful floods in Belgium and Germany, you could go on. Whatever can be done should be done to reduce our impact on the planet. I appreciate people still need / want to travel, including me, we just need new greener ways to do it, so we can continue to. It's a bit catch up time now however, as the issues were ignored or ridiculed for years, and the oil industry would prefer nothing shifted.
Aviation in particular are improving and becoming greener now. More airlines using more fuel efficient Jets such as Dreamliners and A350s along with others. Aircraft emissions will be lower now than about 20 years ago as back then there was lots of 4 engine jets and less fuel efficient ones. So aviation is getting there. I’ve said this a lot aviation seems to be always the target when it comes to climate change when it only accounts for 2% of the worlds emissions. I think we will eventually see electric aircraft but also aircraft that have lower emissions.
 
What happened in Germany and yesterday 25 July in London , was a weather event caused by warm air containing much moisture meeting with cooler air and storms resulted. It happens frequently every part of the planet, always has done and a puny human intervention is not going to change it.
 
Aviation in particular are improving and becoming greener now. More airlines using more fuel efficient Jets such as Dreamliners and A350s along with others. Aircraft emissions will be lower now than about 20 years ago as back then there was lots of 4 engine jets and less fuel efficient ones. So aviation is getting there. I’ve said this a lot aviation seems to be always the target when it comes to climate change when it only accounts for 2% of the worlds emissions. I think we will eventually see electric aircraft but also aircraft that have lower emissions.

Wideroe have already ordered electric planes, so it is happening
 
Did you say something? All I see is you quoted that’s all.

As for doing something I agree. But £1.7 trillion pounds, destroying an industry which when it’s up and running is one of the best are research and innovation, is not the way. Maybe trump was right - we are just seeing the earth go through it’s natural warming up cycle.

Ultimately it needs to be done on an international scale. What we need to do? Well stop Brazil pulling down the rain forest, continue to invest in Africa’s Green belt (planting trees from one end to the other E to W to stop advancement of deserts), no fishing zones to allow our eco system to re bound around the world in the sea. All these things eat away at carbon and produce oxygen.

Trump was right , the guy who said the Californian fires were down to poor bush management, I wonder what he would say about The Utah Salt Lakes drought !
 
Until we find out that electric is not the way forward thanks to the batteries which need replacing every so often? Oh and the production materials that goes into them. And suddenly we’ll be back digging for oil and gas.

Nature wouldn’t of given us both them natural sources if heat and energy if she didn’t want us to use them.
 
Oil, Gas and Coal. All the result of organic decomposition of living matter. Humans discovered these materials as also did they recently discover the potential of Lithium without which the current crop of electric vehicles cannot function.

What of the prospects of uncovering the energy potential of other earth elements or those yet to be found and identified in other planetary bodies in the future? Energy cannot be created but can be released, Nuclear fission being an obvious example of Uranium being mined and processed to release the energy to fuel power stations and some sea going vessels.
 
What of the prospects of uncovering the energy potential of other earth elements or those yet to be found and identified in other planetary bodies in the future? Energy cannot be created but can be released, Nuclear fission being an obvious example of Uranium being mined and processed to release the energy to fuel power stations and some sea going vessels.
Elements on other planetary bodies will be the same as those on Earth, although their abundance may vary. The Periodic Table applies to the whole Universe.
The Law of Conservation of Energy states that energy can neither be created or destroyed, only converted into another energy form (the total energy of a closed system will remain constant). Energy is obtained from nuclear fission by the release of binding energy as the nucleus splits. Nuclear fusion is the other nuclear energy source and is how the Sun and all other stars work (Hydrogen nuclei are fused under intense heat and pressure to form Helium nuclei. As a star goes through it's death throws, heavier elements may be formed). Unfortunately, despite decades of research, controlled nuclear fusion as a power source has eluded Humankind. The immense temperatures needed require extremely strong magnetic fields to prevent the plasma (ionised gas) from contacting the walls of the containment vessel, which would otherwise melt releasing the superheated plasma - the consequences don't bear thinking about.
One other source of energy that would be very high yielding, is the reaction of matter with anti-matter. E.g. a Hydrogen atom comes into contact with an anti-Hydrogen atom. This results in the annihilation of both releasing a very large amount of energy. Whilst tiny amounts of anti-matter have been created, production and storage are extremely difficult. One big mystery of the Universe is why there is such an abundance of matter compared with anti-matter. Theoretically, equal amounts of both should have been created at the Big Bang.

Kevin
 
Does his eminence agree?
Be that me? :wideyed:

If so, you know that I love Science and am enthusiastic in passing on knowledge to others. I also realise that Science has it's own language and terms (in much the same way as Law and many other disciplines), which can be baffling for those from outside the subject. As such, I always try to be informative without overwhelming people with scientific jargon. I got a lot of experience with this, when working for the (then) Cancer Research Campaign, firstly at Aston and the at Nottingham University. I would often demonstrate techniques and analytical instruments to new PhD students and Undergraduates doing their final year projects in our laboratories. I had many compliments on the way that I explained these subjects and one Undergraduate asked why I couldn't take their tutorial classes instead of Dr X (name withheld). The simple answer was that I was technical Staff (Chief Research Technician) as opposed to Academic Staff (Lecturers and Post Doctoral). As such I wasn't allowed to hold any classes.
I have many funny stories from throughout my career in Chemistry and have thought of writing about them in a similar style to the James Herriot books. The only problem is that to find them funny, the reader would need to have a good understanding of Science. Without such, sales would be limited.

Kevin
 
Your Eminence, you have always explained in ways that dummies can understand. My discipline is Law, often misunderstood but simple to those that study the subject. You explain your branch of science that this dummy can understand. For that I thank you!
 
Your Eminence, you have always explained in ways that dummies can understand. My discipline is Law, often misunderstood but simple to those that study the subject. You explain your branch of science that this dummy can understand. For that I thank you!
Thank you, Jenny.
I must say that you are no dummy. Your knowledge of your discipline is at least equal to my knowledge of mine. Thank you for your input to the forum regarding legal matters.

Regards

Kevin
 
Proximity to Tunisia is partly a reason as North Africa is in the midst of extreme weather and wildfires. The potential exists for some of that heat to drift further North to our shores giving us a hot Bank Holiday.
 
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