Global Warming or Global Cooling?

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What are your thoughts on climate change? For the last two decades at lest we have been spoon fed a global warming agenda, "the Earth is burning up", our "use of fossil fuels is causing Co2 to spiral out of control". More recently the IPCC lead by the United Nations released a report saying we have to take immediate action to save the planet from catastrophe.

During the 90's I went along with this narrative. As a person who has always been interested in weather and the climate I have always followed the subject with much interest and like most people I went along with the idea that man was warming the planet due to his excessive use of fossil fuel causing Co2 to warm the planet.

More recently, and certainly over the last five years or so I have changed my opinion on what is going on. Over the years the narrative has changed from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change". Several new reports have been released stating we're heading for a "mini ice age". Like everybody else I was confused and baffled at the mixed message coming from scientists. Since the beginning of this "global catastrophe" I have wondered why the IPCC wasn't looking at why the earth had warmed in the past? Why we've had ice ages before? Why we've had extinction events in the past?

The more and more I look at it the more convinced I am that the climate doesn't follow a linear path, but it oscillates between hot and cold, wet and dry. The IPCC temperate graph showing the temperature spiralling out of control. It doesn't show the previous Maunder Minimum or the Dalton Minimum when the climate was significantly cooler. Sudden changes in the Earth's temperature have thought to have been linked to the Sun and solar activity. Currently we are in a solar minimum. Over the next year or so we climb out of a solar minimum into a solar maximum. This is measured by the number of sun spots. During a maximum, sun spots are plentiful but the opposite can be said during a solar minimum. You would expect this to be good news but the latest predictions for the new solar maximum is grim reading as the Science is pointing closer and closer to the planet heading rapidly into a "Solar Grand Minimum" ,similar to the Maunder Minimum.

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Maunder Minimum 1645 - 1715.

Earlier this month Professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University released her latest findings regarding sun activity which showed almost exact correlation between the suns activity and previous solar minimums. She makes some significant predictions during her findings.

Little Iceage to hit Earth in 2020
A ‘Little Ice Age’ which caused severe winters in the 17th Century could return in five years’ time due to a predicted fall in solar activity.
This possibility was discussed during the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales, by Prof Valentina Zharkova, of Northumbria University, alongside an international group of scientists including Prof Simon Shepherd, of Bradford University, Dr E Popova, of Moscow State University, and Dr Sergei Zharkov, of Hull University.
Prof Zharkova described the research as ‘the first serious prediction of a reduction of solar activity that might affect human lives’. If the decrease in solar activity takes place, it could result in a period similar to the ‘Maunder minimum’ of 1645 to 1700. During this period, there were only about 50 sunspots on the surface of the Sun instead of the usual 40-50 thousand, resulting in very severe winters and cold summers.
Several studies have shown that the ‘Maunder Minimum’ coincided with the coldest phase of global cooling, which was called the ‘Little Ice Age’. Due to the cold winters in Europe and North America, rivers such as the Thames and the Danube froze and the Moscow River was covered by ice every six months.
Prof Zharkova’s research is based on an analysis of solar activity. The Sun has its own magnetic field whose amplitude and spatial configuration varies with time. The formation and decay of strong magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere results in changes of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, the intensity of plasma flows, and the number of sunspots on its surface, which varies every 11 years.
In the current study, the researchers analysed a total background magnetic field from full disk magnetograms by applying the so-called ‘principal component analysis’. As a result, the researchers uncovered a pair of magnetic waves in the Sun responsible for variations during 11-year solar activity. The scientists managed to derive the analytical formulae, describing these two waves and made first the prediction of magnetic activity in the current cycle, which gave 97% accuracy.
Inspired by this success, Zharkova and her co-authors extended the prediction of solar activity to future cycles. They discovered that the waves become fully separated into the opposite hemispheres leading to a sharp decline in solar activity in years 2020 t0 2050 – comparable with the conditions of the Maunder minimum in the 17th Century. This will lead to a reduction of the solar magnetic field and a noticeable decrease in solar irradiance.
Speaking about her confidence in her team’s work, Prof Zharkova added: “I am absolutely confident in our research. It has good mathematical background and reliable data, which has been handled correctly. In fact, our results can be repeated by any researchers with the similar data available in many solar observatories, so they can derive their own evidence of upcoming Maunder Minimum in solar magnetic field and activity.”
Following Prof Zharkova’s prediction at last week’s conference, the story has captured the public imagination with stories across the international press in the UK, USA, Australia, Germany, France, China, Russia, New Zealand, Canada, Singapore and many other countries including The Independent, The Telegraph, and Science Daily(UK), ABC News, USA Today, Washington Post, New York Times. Australia Today and numerous other newspapers and radio stations worldwide.
Prof Zharkova said: “The public imagination has been captured by the first serious prediction of a reduction of solar activity that might affect the human lives – as it did in the 17thCentury. Solar-terrestrial physics literarily enters everyone’s house – this is the main beauty of the event.”
Prof Zharkova, who works in the Department of Mathematics and Information Sciences at Northumbria, believes the research further positions the University as a leader in this area.
She said: “Yes, I think so, given what we have done so far. Previously, in 1998, we with Dr A Kosovichev, of Stanford University, USA, discovered quakes on the Sun associated with solar flares, which were reported in Nature covered by the worldwide media on five continents. This topic continues to be one of the most interested in for the past decade. Now we decided to report the new finding on solar activity at the National Astronomy Meeting to enhance the profile of the UK science and to emphasise the contribution of three UK collaborators, including Northumbria.”
Northumbria offers a range of courses across Physics, Astrophysics, and Mathematics disciplines and has recently announced investment of £6.7m in STEM facilities on campus. For more information about studying at Northumbria go to: www.northumbria.ac.uk/courses
http://www.northumbria.ac.uk/courses
 
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The Law is clear, it is an offence to obstruct the King's Highway, a consequence of Dick Turpin and his antics in day's past. Every law committed to the Statute Book has a Mischief behind it. The protesters going beyond reasonable, a defence in law, can be prosecuted both criminally and civil. Often both under US law.

Ref: Section 137 Highways Act 1980, as ammended.
 
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Earlier reports it was a group wanting all old houses to be insulated, paid for by Government.
Nothing is ever paid for by the Government. The only money that the Government has is that raised by taxes or from international loans. In the case of loans, they have to be paid back and where does that money come from - yes the taxpayer.
Whilst it is a good idea to insulate all homes, those that get insulation will benefit from lower energy bills and so at least part of their savings should go toward paying for the insulation. They will still win out in the long run, as the insulation will last much longer than their repayment plan.
As for the protestors, I have nothing against peaceful protest. They can stand by the roadside (in a safe position) and hold up their banners and placards. It's when they disrupt routine daily life that I get annoyed and put off supporting anything they are protesting about. Imagine the state of the country if we all disrupted daily life for whatever little pet interests we had. We live in a democracy and that means that the view of the majority must prevail, like it or not.
Where's the water cannon with indelible dye when you need it?. The protesters should be giver 2 minutes to disperse and if they failed they would get soaked and dyed. Anyone at a later date with a blue or purple face would be easily identified and arrested.

Kevin
 
If anyone has any doubt, being hit by water cannon is no fun. Water is in itself heavy and the force of the cannon can be injurious. Let any protester explain their injuries to doctors or police and keep a deadpan face.
 
Some cretin, only way to describe him, is on GMB, from the vile anarchist group, saying he can justify the protest even if that means someone died in an ambulance or missed a mums funeral etc. They only had one sided argument excluding the elephant in the room which is over population.

GMB only had one sided argument, full of lunatics and far left extremists. Apparently we need to do everything in the world. Ignore the fact that there is China Brazil and India polluting the world. We should start locking these idiots up.
 
We should start locking these idiots up.
That's exactly what would happen to them if they dared try and protest in China and they know it. So they choose instead to make their point in a country that will treat them with kid gloves. Even if they get arrested, they know that they'll get away with little more than a slap on the wrist and be released so that they can carry on.

Kevin
 
Unfortunately expect much more of this in the coming years.

Article on the BBC today makes for some depressing reading:

Climate change: Young people very worried - survey​



Surveyed 10,000 people aged between 16 and 25 from around the world.

Some "highlights":

Nearly 60% of young people approached said they felt very worried or extremely worried.

More than 45% of those questioned said feelings about the climate affected their daily lives.

Three-quarters of them said they thought the future was frightening. Over half (56%) say they think humanity is doomed.

Two-thirds reported feeling sad, afraid and anxious. Many felt fear, anger, despair, grief and shame - as well as hope.

Many of those questioned perceive that they have no future, that humanity is doomed, and that governments are failing to respond adequately.

Many feel betrayed, ignored and abandoned by politicians and adults.

The authors say the young are confused by governments' failure to act. They say environmental fears are "profoundly affecting huge numbers of young people".


I think this could aptly be described as "The Greta Effect"

What I suspect most of these young people fail to grasp is the enormity of the task they are asking of governments. Anyone can say we will de-carbonise our society by 2030, but its how you go about doing it that is the problem.

Take energy production for instance. Currently just under 40% of the UK's energy needs our met by fossil fuels, which equates to 635,000GWh of demand.

The London Array, a wind farm in the Outer Thames Estuary and one of the largest in the UK and the world, generates just 2500GWh or 0.2% of the UK's energy needs.

We would need over 200 arrays the same size as the London Array to "switch off" fossil fuel use for energy in the UK.

The resulting "Mega Wind Farm" would cover an area the size of Belgium, or 13% of the UK's land, and would cost over £400billion to construct (let alone operate), almost double the NHS budget for 2020/21.

And that is before the extra energy demand from the transport sector and home heating going electric as well.

Given that it is these same young people who will be in government in 20 years time, I might agree with them that humanity is doomed.
 
Nothing is ever paid for by the Government. The only money that the Government has is that raised by taxes or from international loans. In the case of loans, they have to be paid back and where does that money come from - yes the taxpayer.
Yes, that's exactly what these people don't realise. Lack the depth of understanding/knowledge to realise that nothing in this world is free (well, very little!). A close relative has recently received a grant for bathroom to wetroom conversion due to mobility issues. A full grant given but of course, I realise that my taxes have partially funded it.
 
Yes, that's exactly what these people don't realise. Lack the depth of understanding/knowledge to realise that nothing in this world is free (well, very little!). A close relative has recently received a grant for bathroom to wetroom conversion due to mobility issues. A full grant given but of course, I realise that my taxes have partially funded it.
I have absolutely no problem in my taxes going to help those genuinely in need, so I'm pleased that the country has been able to help your relative. However those who try to scam the system, such as having 9 kids whilst on benefits and then demanding a mansion to live in makes my blood boil. As for things being free, at least they don't tax the air that we breath - but give it time. I could say a lot more, but will bite my tongue (for now!).

Kevin
 
The Law is clear, it is an offence to obstruct the King's Highway, a consequence of Dick Turpin and his antics in day's past. Every law committed to the Statute Book has a Mischief behind it. The protesters going beyond reasonable, a defence in law, can be prosecuted both criminally and civil. Often both under US law.

Ref: Section 137 Highways Act 1980, as ammended.
The law is clear but not always able to be enforced, often for practical/logistical reasons. Demonstrators know this and many also know how far they can push matters without ending up before the beak, although in some circumstances some of them want to be arrested so that their views are given wider coverage.

Some environmentalists arrested in Bristol for obstructing the highway pleaded not guilty in court - they were subsequently convicted - but their stance gave them many column inches of publicity in the local rags. One was a septuagenarian vicar whose angelic face giving an interview on the local tv news after the court case undoubtedly stirred some viewers into wondering why the police hadn't better things to do than arrest an old lady lying in the road.

Climate change: Young people very worried - survey​



Surveyed 10,000 people aged between 16 and 25 from around the world.

Some "highlights":

Nearly 60% of young people approached said they felt very worried or extremely worried.

More than 45% of those questioned said feelings about the climate affected their daily lives.

Three-quarters of them said they thought the future was frightening. Over half (56%) say they think humanity is doomed.

Two-thirds reported feeling sad, afraid and anxious. Many felt fear, anger, despair, grief and shame - as well as hope.

Many of those questioned perceive that they have no future, that humanity is doomed, and that governments are failing to respond adequately.

Many feel betrayed, ignored and abandoned by politicians and adults.

The authors say the young are confused by governments' failure to act. They say environmental fears are "profoundly affecting huge numbers of young people".
How would these youngsters have fared in WW2, or in the 1950s/1960s with WW3/end of the world stories often published in newspapers and on the tv/radio in those days.

The youth then seemed to cope - they had to - although there was no Internet with social media incessantly repeating its messages. The saying sometimes attributed to the Nazi propagandist Goebbels that if you repeat something often enough it will become the truth and be believed, whether it is true or not, no doubt has a part to play in what seems to be mental fragility in some young people. The pandemic and its effects must also weigh heavily on the minds of many young people, as it does with many older people.
 
Where do 'young people ' get their opinions and thoughts from? Ask a 12yr old a hard question, you get "mum says......." or Miss said in school that A will follow B and the fishes will die ..... Often simple answers because a microphone has been shoved in their face. Or is it the Facebook generation self prophesising doom and gloom. Never once in my school were we told where the nuclear shelter was or what to do when the 3 minute warning was given. Life carried on as I worried about doing the homework and in my case, practising my music to an acceptable standard. Mental health did not figure in anyone's thoughts.

It is my contention that protesters are devoid of independent thought and that actions are driven by controlling minds that are deliberately obtuse in nature making detection difficult.
 
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You are quite right JENNYJET. We all lived much simpler lives then and it didn't do us any harm I don't think. The contrary is more likely to be the case.

I'm afraid that the internet has brought us many benefits but also many problems. I too grew up in an age where computers, never mind the internet, were the preserve of Governments and mega corporations. Personal computers and their allied devices, were eventually introduced and have brought us to where we are today with the explosion of social media and podcasts etc following close behind. If we spend a little time on these machines we quickly become experts in whatever field we fancy and many of these self educated 'experts' make no apology for ramming their new found 'expert' knowledge down our throats. And they are always right aren't they? The media have compounded this by consistently (some would say persistently) inviting these people onto their 'news' programmes, so much so that a good proportion of the population now wouldn't know a true expert if they saw one!

Where will it all go? Looking forward. Haven't a clue but I know that I'm not keen on seeing it as it has all gone too far already. Sir Tim Berners-Lee did us all a great favour by inventing the WWW but I suspect that even he would not have envisaged the, inevitable (?), downsides that would ensue.
 
I'm surprised there isn't one already!

Am I right in thinking some universities offer a degree course or have I mixed it up with something else?
 
I am not sure what the Govt position is even after reading the article which seems to contradict itself whilst the headline seems to suggest something different. I still think we shall have to wait and see which way they jump on aviation strategy. At the moment they seem not to know where they are going. Keeping us all guessing would appear to be the byword.
 
Well, it was not that long ago when the government said we should keep flying and that there was no plans to reduce people flying so on that basis they must have common sense and see it’s not aviation causing all the damage to the planet when it’s only responsible for around 2% yes it still emits some but not as much as other industry’s so I don’t see why it always seems to be a constant target with the climate fanatics GALBAS Ect.

the article in my post above is annoyingly behind a paywall so you can’t see everything in it (unless you’re a independent subscriber) but the title is encouraging none the less.
 
I wonder what the UK's view would be if the police got a little heavy handed with these idiots who are protesting and blocking the M25? Rather than just dither and try negotiate there should be a very heavy handed approach to shift them off the M25.
 
I wonder what the UK's view would be if the police got a little heavy handed with these idiots who are protesting and blocking the M25?
It wouldn't bother me! Don't get me wrong, I'm fully open to reasoned debate and under such would be willing to consider and maybe take their arguments on board. What puts me off listening to anything they say, is their use of illegal tactics and having no consideration for the people caught in the traffic queues. What if someone had been delayed to an important Chemotherapy session? What about the missed flights of people going to visit a much loved dying relative? We should care about our environment, but not to the point that it is the sole issue.

Kevin
 
It is being British! The Continental police do things in a direct manner and given that their police are routinely armed, few dare to argue the toss. The British approach is to seek consent or discuss or negotiate a way to avoid arrest with almost everyone armed with a cameraphone, recording heavyhanded police action. The media then enjoy a collective orgasm!
 
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