CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Scottie Dog]

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[Scottie Dog]

Nice one Scottie
5% maybe a little ambitious but I like your optimism
Ian

With January's figures now having been made available I thought it was time to provide an update of projected numbers:

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[IanFarquharson]

2018 totals

Heathrow – 79,788,997 - up 2.28%

Gatwick – 46,066,260 – up 1.12%

Manchester – 28,292,797 – up 1.68%

Stansted – 27,997,256 – up 8.08%

Luton – 16,769,634 - up 4.87%

Edinburgh – 14,294,305 – up 6.59%

Birmingham – 12,451,499 – down 4.15%

Glasgow – 9,656,227 – down 2.44%

Bristol – 8,699,529 up 5.59%

Belfast Int – 6,268,960 – up 7.41%

East Midlands – 4,873,831 – down 0.10%

 

[Scottie Dog]

Projected W18 figures shows an anticipated gain of 2.8pc on movements and 7.6pc in available seats compared with W17 actual.

Figures for S19 are movements plus 5.8pc and seats plus 9pc compared with start of S18.

 

[David_itl]

Semi interesting thing I've worked out on the back of a rumour elsewhere of a 3 weekly Cathay Pacific EDI service to be a MAN tag-on. With the A350-1000 being in use in December, the average load per service was around 284 which is 85% full. Had they used the A350-900s, the loads would have been in excess of 100% as it can only carry 280 passengers.

 

[Jerry]

If they do that I wonder if they'll sell seats for just the EDI-MAN sectors like Hainan does with Dublin?

 

[Land23R]

Semi interesting thing I've worked out on the back of a rumour elsewhere of a 3 weekly Cathay Pacific EDI service to be a MAN tag-on. With the A350-1000 being in use in December, the average load per service was around 284 which is 85% full. Had they used the A350-900s, the loads would have been in excess of 100% as it can only carry 280 passengers.

Some time ago on one of the forums, there was a post of the CX cancellations affecting MAN (and other airports) over the winter.
I thought one of those was in December, with 4 in January, 2 in Feb and 2 in March. The list of movements in the TAS magazine shows no flight on the 10 Dec. That being the case, then 60 sectors in December I reckoned to be an even more impressive LF of 294.
Worth bearing in mind when we are considering loads for Jan-Mar.

 

[David_itl]

Here's a (pointless?) chart I've drafted up based on the wiki page quoting the CAA annual statistics since 1997 with me putting in the changes in passenger numbers and movements but also working out the average passenger load per movement.

View attachment 12432

Some things to note:
1. Seems obvious to state but generally the percentage change in average load can be seen to the difference between the percentage changes in passenger numbers and movements
2. Embracing low-cost airlines instead of spurning them finally broke the average load from around the 100 level.
3. Despite the increased long-haul flying programme over the last 2 to 3 years which is typically seeing capacity in excess of 250 seats per individual sector, the effect of Flybe's domestic routes is dampening down average loads
4. In the space of 5 years from 2006 to 2011, movements actually plummeted by 33% yet average loads increased by 20 passengers per flight
5.I'm estimating that, given the scarcity of night flights, with an average 16 hours of "normal" flying operations we ended up with something like 12 or 13 fewer movements per hour
6, To get to the 2006 movement level from where 2018 ended, we would need roughly an extra 5 movements an hour for the 16 hour "normal" flying operations

and the random thought for today, using the maximum movements and average load, the passenger level would be standing at 32.2 million passengers i.e. 14% above where we are today.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Goa had 13530 passengers in December 2017, but is reported as 0 this year. I would suspect that makes up the bulk of the 'unknown destinations '.

I've just received a response from the gentleman responsible for statistics at the airport and he confirms that Goa was served from Manchester in December 2018, but actual figures were not stated.

As this information was supplied to the CAA it would seem to be an error in their final compilation of data. On the basis of this I think we can presume that all 14,268 unknown passengers can be allocated to the Goa route.

My thanks to User1007 for highlighting the matter.

Scottie Dog

 

[Scottie Dog]

Winter planned Air Transport Movements are currently +2.8% and Seats 7.5% compared with W17 season actual

Summer planned Air Transport Movements are currently +5.1% and Seats 8.6% compared with S18 season actual).

 

[David_itl]

The January stats are out. Some isolated performances....

My abacus told me that Ethiopian averaged 76 passengers per flight in December. The figure's gone up in January..... to 82.4 passengers per flight. Seems to me that it's not beyond the realms of possibility for MAN to have Max8 non-stop services.

Cathay averaged 307 passengers per flight based on the 4 reported cancellations above or if all operated 268 passengers.

Jet Airways averaged 234 passengers per flight.

 

[Coathanger16]

Jet Airways averaged 234 passengers per flight.

Jet Airways/Mumbai is doing well. Wouldn't be surprised if they end up using the B787-9 when they get delivered.

 

[David_itl]

It's interesting that the BHX services dropped by only 1300 (mostly on the Delhi route which is probably related to the reduced frequency) which suggests that getting an Indian destination to operate from regional Britain was never the case of playing one airport against another; there was always the market for multiple routes from the regions.

 

[mullion]

Another thing David we don`t know how much traffic is going through Brussels as it is the prime
airport of the two so Manchester might only be feeding what is left over and as the number of B789
seems to be increasing it must be doing OK

 

[David_itl]

There are some naysayers who just look at the bald statistic of 82 passengers per flight and go into instant meltdown mode thinking it has to be struggling with no regard to what BRU passenger numbers are like.

"Booking" flights departing UK on 16th June, returning 22nd June sees ticket prices broadly similar for both MAN and LHR so that should quell disquiet on any yields issue

 

[IanFarquharson]

 

[Land23R]

Jet Airways/Mumbai is doing well. Wouldn't be surprised if they end up using the B787-9 when they get delivered.

Reading comments on another forum, I rather think the issue at the moment is that Jet Airways survive. They've evidently confirmed there is a significant market from MAN and it would be a great pity for all concerned if things went pear-shaped.

 

[David_itl]

some more breakdowns

Beijing = 74% loads (216 passengers per flight)
Singapore Airlines... Singapore sector averaged 178 passengers and the Houston sector 113 passengers

 

[Scottie Dog]

Manchester Statistics - January 2019

Introduction

Back in September2015 I decided that I should start to correlate statistics for Manchester and use 2005 as a reference point for historical data. My file now consists of 14 years of monthly figures and 484 destinations that have been served from Manchester over that period.

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

Langkawi came online in January 2019 with 1,469 cruise passengers. U-Tapoa in Thailand appears for the first time with 1,155 charter passengers and Murcia International shows 2,124 scheduled passengers - Murcia San Javier saw its figures drop from 4,861 to 2,336 and Murcia as a whole had a reduction of 401 passenger.

Million passenger routes (Rolling annual figures)

Amsterdam - 1,041,195 passengers
Dubai - This route has now dropped out of the target figure to be included.

No domestic statistics are missing from the CAA report for January.

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics/MAG statistics

Monthly passengers - 1,786,032 +6.9%
Annual Total - 24,784,468 +2.01%
Moving Annual Total - 28,417,078 +2.07%

Monthly Movements - 13,645 +0.79%
Annual Movements - 173,322 -0.84%
Moving Annual Movements - 201,348 -0.93%

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers
View attachment 12505

Top 25 destinations with highest percentage increase.
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Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.
View attachment 12507

Comparison of top 25 destinations - January 2009 versus January 2019
View attachment 12508

Major changes to Domestic traffic
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CAA statistics for January are provisional.

 

[Land23R]

Feb. stats for MAN now available.

https://live-webadmin-media.s3.amazonaws.com/media/5940/february-2019.xlsx