How concerned are you about the Coronavirus?

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Worrying reports across the news over recent days regarding the Caronavirus. How concerned are you?
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The next level is 'STATE OF EMERGENCY ' and I assure you that is the last thing you will want to happen. Freedom as you know it would be severely curtailed with general curfew becoming a way of life with people at risk of arrest if there is non compliance.

Every aspect of life would be affected from medical access to protect services to food rationing if borders remain closed to imports, vehicle fuels limited at point of purchase to prevent unnecessary journeys, one could go on but do I need to?
 
Coathanger's back with some more statistics and graphs :LOL:

First up: Infection rate per 100k since the last week of November comparing areas that are now in Tier 4 to everywhere else in the UK.

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It's quite clear that the recent growth we've seen in cases can almost entirely be attributed to those areas now in Tier 4 and Wales.

With the exception of Wales (as they did they're own thing), the Tier 4 areas are all very urbanised, being the most densely populated parts of the UK, yet after the November Lockdown were placed in Tier 2 - basically the only urban area that was!

If this "new strain" has been around since possibly September, why is the South East being so badly affected by it, whilst its prevalence elsewhere in the country is still low?

Parts of the North West have been under Tier 3 restrictions or greater since the end of September/start of October, yet there's hardly any of the new strain around.

London & the South East only went into Tier 3 a week ago, and that's a major hotpot for it.

Surely it doesn't take a genius to connect the dots...?
 
With the inability of the British public to understand simple rules, such as "stay put" or "socially distance", then perhaps it's time the government should have instigated a travel ban last Saturday and told rail and coach operators to suspend operations with immediate effect?
 
It is, and has been, for any government a very difficult situation but I don't exempt them to criticism anything like David Itl has.
The public does also have a responsibility of course, and while I have a degree of sympathy for folk now in Tier 4 and others who have had Christmas plans based on the original 5 day reprieve torn up, those scenes showing the exodus at London rail stations on Saturday evening did not make for good viewing.

Whatever one's political views, I do feel it's time our Prime Minister acted more responsibly and with more maturity. I happened to watch PMQ's last Wednesday and was surprised at the way he mocked Starmer's concerns about what were then the plans for a Merry little Christmas. He's now got egg on his face that even the Associate Editor of the normally very loyal Telegraph recognised in her article yesterday. Boris could learn from some of his Ministers who are usually much more measured in their statements and comments.

This variant and the actions taken by other governments is yet another kick in the teeth for aviation. Sadly, I doubt it will rouse the Chancellor in actually providing specific help for the sector as some European governments have done.
 
Update to my recent graph going back to September now:

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Given the "experts" say this new strain was around in September, part of me wonders if it was responsible for the surge in cases we saw in the North. Expect more places to go into tier 4 after Christmas.
 
Thank you Coathanger16.

If the new variant is the prime cause, it would be interesting to see similar graphs for hospital admissions, ICU occupancy and fatalities over the coming few weeks which might give an indication as to whether or not it's symptoms can more serious. So far, the Scientists think probably not and that the vaccines will still be effective.
 
Thank you Coathanger16.

If the new variant is the prime cause, it would be interesting to see similar graphs for hospital admissions, ICU occupancy and fatalities over the coming few weeks which might give an indication as to whether or not it's symptoms can more serious. So far, the Scientists think probably not and that the vaccines will still be effective.

Generally speaking with viruses, lethality and infectiousness are inversely proportional - i.e. as one goes up, the other goes down, and vice versa.

Best way to describe it is the more deadly a virus is, the quicker it kills the host, and therefore has less of a chance to infect another person. Likewise viruses that are more infectious are able to infect more people as they don't kill their hosts.

There is also a general trend among all viruses that they tend to mutate to less deadly strains the longer time goes on.
 
In Bristol today the local paper reports the government's brief explanation for moving Bristol and the adjacent North Somerset unitary authority back into tier 3 only four days after these local authority areas were moved from tier 3 to tier 2. Apart from a rising infection rate NHS provision is also a worry according to the government.

Also a worry is that the government doesn't seem to know in which NHS region North Somerset unitary authority is situated, so how can it be relied upon to make the correct correlation? The local paper reports:

The Government website then mistakenly describes North Somerset as being in the Bath & North East Somerset, Swindon & Wiltshire NHS region, where it says critical bed occupancy is "slowly increasing".

In fact, North Somerset is in an NHS region with Bristol and South Gloucestershire.


I wonder if the government is confused about other NHS regions.
 
Did we not learn from the 1st lockdown?

It appears we are repeating ourselves and are also going along the same lines before. And us the British are falling for it. Scaremongering, lying, and quite frankly, bending the truth to fit their hidden agenda - the MSM and Government.
 
Stalled maybe? Not enough vaccine and his holiness Mr. Blair is preaching the need to forego the second dose, we do NOT need this confusion. I am slated for vaccination in August 21 despite medical need though I may be expendable!
 
Stalled maybe? Not enough vaccine and his holiness Mr. Blair is preaching the need to forego the second dose, we do NOT need this confusion. I am slated for vaccination in August 21 despite medical need though I may be expendable!

What I think he was saying is, use the first dose more widely spread rather then conserving it for the second dose two weeks later. So increase production and delivery though I don’t trust this lot to get that right. (Once the Oxford vaccine is approved, which is 2 doses but doesn’t need as much special care and attention, hopefully roll out will be accelerated. Massively.) Which tbh he’s quite right. 50% of NHS trusts have not yet received the vaccine. How ridiculous. Would be nice to have a decent end to all this crap, but looks like, as ever, incompetence will shine through. Oh to have a leader like Blair, Cameron et al.

what also amazes me is the speed at which most of the world shut us of? Why the hell did they not do that this time last year with China? We wouldn’t of been in this god sodden mess.
 
Unfortunately we have a PM that in truth is a media product, journalist, game show and comedy panellist, the British Trump or perhaps Chump in chief, a man to decide upon deployment of military and nuclear assets. The more I think of it the colder my blood runs. It is HIS letter sitting in the Captains safe of our nuclear armed fleet so yes indeed, please come back Mr Cameron!
 
You must be joking. Bring back Cameron!!! BJ has just concluded an EU deal that Cameron couldn't even think about. He preferred to give in, hook line and sinker, to Brussels and see where that got him and his successor May.
 
Until the virus is completely under control I suspect having evidence of vaccination will be the norm for many months to come. Also, the jury seems to be out whether or not the jab, which gives you some personal immunity, prevents you from spreading the virus.

We shouldn't have to wait to see if it prevents spreading etc. You just have to look at Israel and see. They've become one of the very first countries to roll out this vaccine at lighting speed, 24/7 vaccination centres etc. Today I saw, from official source on twitter, that they are seeing a decline of infections and cases in hospitals already, and they've got given the majority of the population the 2nd dose. They will know the numbers and effects in coming days. This to me is evidence it does work. We shouldn't just be looking at our own data to see if this works. We should be looking elsewhere and sharing data etc with countries such as Israel.
 
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The Westminster Government has made a lot of mistakes with its response to the pandemic at various times but it seems the UK is ahead of the game when it comes to vaccinations, having already vaccinated more people than the rest of Europe in total.

Of course in dealing with the pandemic itself the Westminster Government only has responsibility for England, although it seems that in the matter of the vaccine the Westminster Government is acting for the whole of the UK.
 
Having a UK produced vaccine distribution and administration is going to be easy so I expect Westminster to be ahead of the curve but the population need to adhere to instructions regards activities and social interaction or vaccination will have little effect.
 
Today I saw, from official source on twitter, that they are seeing a decline of infections and cases

We're starting to hear from government & scientists that cases "may be" levelling off here, though that will be more from the restrictions rather than vaccinations.

I keep a record of the number of tests carried out each day vs the number of positive cases detected (i.e. what % of tests are coming back positive). Data is from the government website, and this 'positivity' indicator gives a far more accurate picture of how we're doing as it takes into account how many tests are done. Media headline "Cases double in a week" vs reality of testing also increasing dramatically, meaning cases are only up 10% for example.

Anyway, under this metric, the UK hit a peak positivity on 4th January at 13%. 8 days later, that had fallen to 9.7% and is still on a downwards trajectory. For comparison, the peak going into the November Lockdown was 8%, and at the start of September was just 1%.

Actual number of cases have also started to fall, with the 7 day rolling average being down now for the last 4 days in a row, and was down for 5 days out of the last 7.

We know it takes between 2 and 3 weeks for these lower case numbers to filter through to lower numbers of deaths, so in about 2 weeks time we should start to see deaths fall. With the vaccine rollout underway and new treatments coming online every other week it feels at times, I wouldn't be surprised to see deaths level off before then.

Falling cases & deaths due to restrictions, coupled with all vulnerable people being vaccinated by mid February (and I think I saw all over 60s would be offered their first dose by April), by late February/early March, I suspect daily deaths will start to fall exponentially (assuming the vaccine still works against the new strains).

I've grown to really not like Boris this last year (didn't much like him before either tbh), and I don't believe a lot of what he says, but something I do agree with him on is that by Easter, things should be a lot better and certainly by early summer, should be more normal than not.
 
Having a UK produced vaccine distribution and administration is going to be easy so I expect Westminster to be ahead of the curve ...

Domestic production is no guarantee of anything I am afraid. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is made in Belgium, and most of the work to develop it was done in Germany. Yet the UK has bought and deployed more of this vaccine than both of those two countries put together by several orders of magnitude.

The AZ vaccine is the one the EU has ordered the most of, yet as of last week the regulator (EMA) had not even started the approval process.

The vaccination is the one thing that the UK does seem to be doing very well, there any many things during the pandemic where we don't seem to have done so well compared to our near neighbours.
 
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