Route Development & Rumours

[robsh34]

According to Aero Routes, Centrum Air from Uzbekistan will be commencing Tashkent to Manchester flights twice weekly from the 30th March.

 

[Scottie Dog]

It looks as if Centrum to Tashkent is in for this summer:

 

[Land23R]

If they start, at least MAN will have something new on long haul.
Rather disappointing otherwise compared to what was expected / hoped for, not to mention the demise of EIUK.

 

[mullion]

What were you expecting other than all the Middle east Upgrades which start soon
i:e Etihad, Qatar and Emirates, Royal Air Maroc increase along with Centrum.

 

[gulftraveller]

It seems that Centrum have now pulled all planned European routes except for Frankfurt. Is this a licensing issue, or have their hub and spoke plans been over optimistic? (AviationNewsUK and website).

 

[Land23R]

What were you expecting other than all the Middle east Upgrades which start soon
i:e Etihad, Qatar and Emirates, Royal Air Maroc increase along with Centrum.

re the ME upgrades: As far as I know, Etihad is still showing 15 x weekly but maybe their summer schedules haven't been finalised. (initial slots 21 x weekly). But up on last summer.
Qatar slots for 4 daily but were expected to increase slightly from 24 to 25 x weekly. It seems they are back to 3 x daily but there is added capacity with the use of the B773 on 2 of the daily flights as I understand it.
With Emirates, I hope we shall still see a 4th daily when they decide which of the numerous added slot timings applied for they will operate.
CX are providing some welcome extra capacity using the B773 for part of the summer and are daily. And of course PIA are back. Egypt Air are increasing frequency I think so not all negative by any means. In the not too distant future, I hope Gulf Air, Saudia and Kuwait might do likewise on frequency.
If you recall, there was rumour / speculation that MAN would see a new Far East carrier this year. I think CCGE29 mentioned it as did other posters elsewhere. Eva Air was a popular guess. Ryadh Air applied for slots this summer but that is not happening apparently and now neither is Centrum.
It's been reported that Indigo are reducing frequency to Delhi from 5 to 3 x weekly, while Mumbai remains at 4 x weekly.
Not sure about Hainan and Juneyao. SQ is status quo.

So going East, growth overall from last summer. But then on TATL we have the demise of EIUK, so less capacity to the US as there's no indication so far that Virgin are upping capacity.

There is still time for things to change, but I'd say a mixed picture depending on what we are comparing with - last summer, currently, slot indications, rumours.

 

[mullion]

The government have just announced that you will be able to travel to China without a visa for upto 30 days

 

[gulftraveller]

It plays to routes such as MAN which are largely UK origin. Given Chinese tourism worldwide seems to be decreasing, some other routes dependent on Chinese tourism might fare less well.

 

[Land23R]

SPD Travels on X has posted that Emirates have withdrawn slots for a 4th daily. I think 31 January was hand back date.
With QR going back to 3 x daily fom 24 weekly, and EY sticking at 15 x weekly, this is disappointing from the MEB3. QR had initially applied for slots for up to 4 x daily and EY 3 x daily.
Emirates was the one I was reasonabaly confident would happen. With the delays over their new lounge in T2 as well, and no 4th flight for summer at least, it just makes the long haul picture for MAN less rosy going East than expected.

 

[BlueManc]

A little puzzled by the lack of significant 2026 growth. Are long haul airlines yet to buy into the Manchester economic growth stats? The 'fill the front, pays for the back' business model is prevalent at LHR (hence the 25-30 LHR to New York daily departures). Will we ever see this business class model start to fund Manchester's network?

 

[Statto]

Are long haul airlines yet to buy into the Manchester economic growth stats?

That assumes that the economic growth stats in Manchester have a statistically significant impact on demand or yields. They might, and airlines might be missing it, but unless people are sat at home, those extra tickets are being sold somewhere and the airlines might be happy with the status quo.

More likely is that (a) growth is a relative measure. I can record the biggest % improvement in my 5k runs but in absolute terms, I’m still a million miles off being an elite athlete. And (b) how reliant is Manchester Airport dependant on the other towns and cities across the North and Midlands. Absent of a meaningful inbound tourist market, then UK passengers have to fill the seats. That means the catchment area needs to stretch to provide that demand. The economic performance of the wider North & Midlands is probably therefore much more important than one city alone.

 

[mullion]

Manchester/Salford/Stockport and maybe others in the area are powering ahead of the rest of the country business wise

 

[Statto]

Manchester/Salford/Stockport and maybe others in the area are powering ahead of the rest of the country business wise

Ahead of London and the South East? They may well be growing faster, if that’s what you mean, but in terms of the metrics that airlines look at that drive demand - and especially premium cabin demand - I’d be interested to see the data

 

[BlueManc]

I can record the biggest % improvement in my 5k runs but in absolute terms, I’m still a million miles off being an elite athlete.

Great analogy. Yep, I'm still Humberside at 5k runs.

 

[mullion]

Stato I`m talking about business not airlines as Manchester are growing at double the speed of other cities

 

[Statto]

Stato I`m talking about business not airlines as Manchester are growing at double the speed of other cities

I know. But the discussion is about the point BlueManc raised which is why aren’t airlines (long haul) “buying into that” and i’ve offered some perspectives that might be food for thought.

 

[David_itl]

how reliant is Manchester Airport dependant on the other towns and cities across the North and Midlands.

so the likes of DUB, AMS, CDG, KEF are all okay to get passengers from all over the place including other cities in their countries but it seems you have unilaterally decided that MAN can only survive on the local Greater Manchester market?

___________
A bit of fluff on EI and their withdrawal with a few travel agents comments on booking patterns it in the Evening News website but behind a paywall. Which is why i found this https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/ai...atlantic-travel/ar-AA1VREVb?ocid=BingNewsSerp

 

[Scottie Dog]

That is an interesting and useful read. Well worth opening the link.

 

[David_itl]

The thing that did surprise me a little is the number of US visitors to northwest England. I know Delta would normally be out of the picture seeing they have Virgin but are Delta, American and United really telling is that the all these "random" places that they pick for summer seasonal European services all have greater travel demand for the US tourist that adding than just a 4 weekly service from any of their hubs?

The numbers quoted for visitors to Northwest England equate to an average of 838 visitors per day but the summer period would always outweigh winter so maybe 1000 to 1200 visitors per day. We don't know the numbers for the other areas of northern England and North Wales. I am well aware that people don't like me allegedly "forcing" passengers to their particular region to use MAN.

One the things I would do is knock all the heads of the Metro Mayors and heads off TPE/Northern/TFW together is to have a range of travel passes for up to 3 days, 5 days and 7 days for the entire Northern England and North Wales regions that have a decent discount to offer to those tourists and a commitment to not having a tourist tax and make play of that with something like "no tourist tax here - we'd rather let you spend your money on things you'll love"

 

[Statto]

so the likes of DUB, AMS, CDG, KEF are all okay to get passengers from all over the place including other cities in their countries but it seems you have unilaterally decided that MAN can only survive on the local Greater Manchester market?

Not sure what the passive aggressive tone is all about. In what way have I “unilaterally decided” anything ? I offered an opinion in response to a specific question which posed the question about why the relative economic success of Manchester wasn’t translating into long haul growth. A response which says that the success of long haul is probably much more reliant on access to a wide market well beyond the boundaries of GM, seems entirely consistent with views of Chris Woodroofe. He said this recently for example:

Perhaps most crucially, when the time taken for surface journeys to airports are reduced, the airport’s catchment area increases. Put simply, more people live within an easy commute than did before – and that helps us attract new routes.

Research conducted for us by Arup estimates up to another 50 long haul routes could be added to our departure board if NPR is delivered in full and the Northern economy fires on all cylinders.