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Ryanair

Marko1

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I note that over the past week there have been a number of press releases involving flights for summer 2019 notably from France , Spain , Portugal , Italy and Greece and not one of them includes any mention of a new route to Bristol. I get a feeling that what you see already is what we are going to get with maybe a few frequency increases later. Quite disappointing so far
 

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Marko1

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Is Ryanair losing interest in Bristol ? No new routes one dropped and two not on sale (again) plus new routes to other airports in sw region .
 

Jerry

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Is Ryanair losing interest in Bristol ? No new routes one dropped and two not on sale (again) plus new routes to other airports in sw region .
I wouldn't say they were losing interest especially as they are expanding in winter. They may well feel that many routes in the summer at BRS are already saturated.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Is Ryanair losing interest in Bristol ? No new routes one dropped and two not on sale (again) plus new routes to other airports in sw region .
Ryanair have been consistent at BRS in summer since the base was opened in 2007: consistent in the sense that they haven't grown much with routes being dropped to be replaced by new ones. These are the peak summer details in the years since 2010.

Summer 2010 32 routes 124 rotations
Summer 2011 27 routes 111 rotations
Summer 2012 28 routes 108 rotations
Summer 2013 31 routes 115 rotations
Summer 2014 28 routes 115 rotations
Summer 2015 27 routes 118 rotations
Summer 2016 29 routes 132 rotations
Summer 2017 31 routes 131 rotations
Summer 2018 32 routes 125 rotations

These routes have come and gone, with some returning and sticking and others returning before being axed again.

Bergerac - might have been dropped for summer 2019
Belfast City 2009-2010 - dropped after Ryanair pulled out of Belfast City
Bratislava 2007-2011 - restored from winter 2011-2012 - axed again summer 2014
Budapest 2007-2010 - restored from summer 2012
Bydgoszcz 2010 - May and June only, then axed
Cagliari 2009 (summer)
Castellon - see Valencia
Derry 2007-2008
Dinard 2007-2008 - was going to be restored summer 2012 but axed within weeks of being announced
Eindhoven 2009
Gdansk 2009 - restored 2010
Grenoble 2008/2009 (winter)
Katowice 2007-2009 - restored from winter 2011-2012 - axed again summer 2014. Now operated by Wizz Air
Lodz summer 2012 and summer 2013
Marrakech 2009-2010 - to be operated by TUI from 2019 after easyJet dropped it
Montpellier 2009 (summer)
Pau 2007-2009
Perpignan 2009 (summer)
Porto 2008-2010 - now operated by easyJet
Reus axed from winter 2014-2015 after several years - restored for summer from 2016, might have been dropped for summer 2019. A TUI route in summer
Riga 2007 till halfway through winter 2011-2012 - (year round though some winters only part winter)
Rimini 2009-2010
Salzburg 2007-2008 (winter) - easyJet and charter airlines operate in winter
Seville 2009-2011 (summer) - restored in 2018 in competition with easyJet
Shannon 2005-2010 - dropped after Ryanair pulled out of Shannon, restored summer 2018. Might have been axed again for summer 2019
Szczecin 2008-2009 - restored from summer 2013 - axed again summer 2014
Toulon 2009 (summer)
Treviso axed from September 2016 after several years and switched to Venice Marco Polo to compete directly with easyJet
Trieste 2009 (summer)
Turin 2007 for three winters - easyJet and charter airlines operate in winter
Valencia axed from September 2015 after several years to be replaced by Castellon - returned from Castellon to Valencia in March 2018
Zadar operated summer 2017 - axed for summer 18

The one-season-not-so-wonderful-routes tried in 2009 coincided with BRS's worst year this century when at the height of the recession the airport lost 10% of its passenger numbers that year. The previous year to see an annual drop in passenger numbers was 1996 and there have only been five years in total during the past 40 years. I wonder if Ryanair was ever tempted to try one or two of the 2009 routes again after the economy improved.
 

Marko1

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I wouldn't say they were losing interest especially as they are expanding in winter. They may well feel that many routes in the summer at BRS are already saturated.
Ryanair have been consistent at BRS in summer since the base was opened in 2007: consistent in the sense that they haven't grown much with routes being dropped to be replaced by new ones. These are the peak summer details in the years since 2010.

Summer 2010 32 routes 124 rotations
Summer 2011 27 routes 111 rotations
Summer 2012 28 routes 108 rotations
Summer 2013 31 routes 115 rotations
Summer 2014 28 routes 115 rotations
Summer 2015 27 routes 118 rotations
Summer 2016 29 routes 132 rotations
Summer 2017 31 routes 131 rotations
Summer 2018 32 routes 125 rotations

These routes have come and gone, with some returning and sticking and others returning before being axed again.

Bergerac - might have been dropped for summer 2019
Belfast City 2009-2010 - dropped after Ryanair pulled out of Belfast City
Bratislava 2007-2011 - restored from winter 2011-2012 - axed again summer 2014
Budapest 2007-2010 - restored from summer 2012
Bydgoszcz 2010 - May and June only, then axed
Cagliari 2009 (summer)
Castellon - see Valencia
Derry 2007-2008
Dinard 2007-2008 - was going to be restored summer 2012 but axed within weeks of being announced
Eindhoven 2009
Gdansk 2009 - restored 2010
Grenoble 2008/2009 (winter)
Katowice 2007-2009 - restored from winter 2011-2012 - axed again summer 2014. Now operated by Wizz Air
Lodz summer 2012 and summer 2013
Marrakech 2009-2010 - to be operated by TUI from 2019 after easyJet dropped it
Montpellier 2009 (summer)
Pau 2007-2009
Perpignan 2009 (summer)
Porto 2008-2010 - now operated by easyJet
Reus axed from winter 2014-2015 after several years - restored for summer from 2016, might have been dropped for summer 2019. A TUI route in summer
Riga 2007 till halfway through winter 2011-2012 - (year round though some winters only part winter)
Rimini 2009-2010
Salzburg 2007-2008 (winter) - easyJet and charter airlines operate in winter
Seville 2009-2011 (summer) - restored in 2018 in competition with easyJet
Shannon 2005-2010 - dropped after Ryanair pulled out of Shannon, restored summer 2018. Might have been axed again for summer 2019
Szczecin 2008-2009 - restored from summer 2013 - axed again summer 2014
Toulon 2009 (summer)
Treviso axed from September 2016 after several years and switched to Venice Marco Polo to compete directly with easyJet
Trieste 2009 (summer)
Turin 2007 for three winters - easyJet and charter airlines operate in winter
Valencia axed from September 2015 after several years to be replaced by Castellon - returned from Castellon to Valencia in March 2018
Zadar operated summer 2017 - axed for summer 18

The one-season-not-so-wonderful-routes tried in 2009 coincided with BRS's worst year this century when at the height of the recession the airport lost 10% of its passenger numbers that year. The previous year to see an annual drop in passenger numbers was 1996 and there have only been five years in total during the past 40 years. I wonder if Ryanair was ever tempted to try one or two of the 2009 routes again after the economy improved.
The point I was making was that it just seems that they are not prepared to try anything new at Bristol and given the airports own growth strategy of using existing carriers to drive growth , Ryanair must be part of that growth strategy. Barcelona for example was ripe for a Ryanair 2-3 weekly service and possibly so was Naples but yet they then try these routes out of other SW airports instead. Are they unprepared to challenge easyJet on these routes but yet challenge them on others like seville and krakow. It just doesn't make any sense to me . Also they seem prepared to increase frequencies on services during the winter then downgrade them in the summer .
 

Foxlimayankee

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They may feel that low frequencies from the region's on high demand routes may actually give them the upper hand over EZY that are relying on people from the Southwest and South Wales to travel to BRS.
 

Jerry

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Barcelona for example was ripe for a Ryanair 2-3 weekly service and possibly so was Naples but yet they then try these routes out of other SW airports instead.
On most of the routes they serve out of the SW regional airports they have competition at BRS.
Also for Ryanair unlike Easyjet when it comes to the South West of the UK Bristol isn't the be all and end all and the amount of bases they have around Europe allows them to be more flexible than Easyjet.
 

TheLocalYokel

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I think the point that Marko is making is that, apart from many of the sun routes which is understandable, Ryanair also competes with easyJet on Krakow, Seville, Venice Marco Polo as well as Sofia in the winter when, on the face of it, there are other perhaps more obvious routes that would stand competition that Ryanair has avoided.

Marko mentions Barcelona and Naples. easyJet operates 2 x daily (14 x weekly) to BCN and Ryanair operates 5 x weekly to Girona in summer, one of its 'Barcelonas' with a small presence at another of its 'Barcelonas' (Reus) although that might be axed for next summer. TUI also operates to Reus in summer. So Barcelona in its various guises might be well covered via three airlines. easyJet operates to Naples 2 x weekly in winter and 3 x weekly in summer, with TUI 2 x weekly in summer, so that might be another route that Ryanair considers well covered, although given its and easyJet's combined frequencies to both Krakow and Venice MP there is an argument that if they are capable of being sustained to the degree that they are there is an argument for Naples. As always, although there might be sufficient punters the yield might not be to the airline's satisfaction.

I've not seen anyone suggest on F4A that BRS is the be-all and end-all for Ryanair in the South West of Britain although until the last few years it effectively was, but if the airport continues to rely on its existing customer airlines for growth, which so far is its stated policy, Ryanair would have to step up to the plate more. The other main airlines at BRS (easyJet, TUI, Thomas Cook and KLM) have all played their part in building BRS's passenger numbers in recent years; Ryanair's input has been more modest and its growth confined to the winter. Growing winter is an excellent thing in itself as all regional airports are heavily biased towards summer but summer growth from Ryanair might also be hoped for by the airport in line with its growth policy.

It will be interesting to see which if any of the new routes at the other SW Britain Ryanair airports (CWL, EXT, BOH and NQY) are continued through winter 19/20.
 

Marko1

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What is interesting is that neither brs , bhx , ema or lba have had any new route announcements so far and as far as I am aware there hasn't been a uk wide route launch. So is it possible there's something to come?
 

TheLocalYokel

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What is interesting is that neither brs , bhx , ema or lba have had any new route announcements so far and as far as I am aware there hasn't been a uk wide route launch. So is it possible there's something to come?
I haven't had the time to see if all the BRS-based aircraft are fully utilised for summer 2019, although any new route(s) could also come via the airline's other bases.
 

TheLocalYokel

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On most of the routes they serve out of the SW regional airports they have competition at BRS.
I'm not sure I'm reading you right but the Ryanair routes served or to be served from CWL, EXT, BOH and NQY not served by Ryanair at BRS are Barcelona from CWL; Prague, Murcia and Paphos from BOH; Naples from EXT; Hanh from NQY.

Of these routes only Hahn is not served by anyone from BRS although flybmi serves Frankfurt.

At BRS Ryanair has these routes to itself and none are flown from other SW Britain airports by anyone either:

Bergerac - peak summer only, not yet in 2019 booking engine
Beziers - summer only
Bergamo
Bucharest
Bologna - summer only
Budapest
Cologne
Gdansk
Kaunas
Knock
Limoges
Poznan
Rzeszow
Shannon - summer only, not yet in 2019 booking engine
Valencia
Warsaw Modlin
Wroclaw
 

TheLocalYokel

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Last flight to Shannon tomorrow. Done well despite the poor times however seats had to be flogged which resulted in dismal yields.
Yet Knock is continuing through winter this year. Apart from the peak summer months BRS-NOC has never has great load factors by Ryanair standards. I've never really studied seat prices on BRS-NOC but the expansion through the winter suggests the yield is ok.
 

andrewgreen

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Yet Knock is continuing through winter this year. Apart from the peak summer months BRS-NOC has never has great load factors by Ryanair standards. I've never really studied seat prices on BRS-NOC but the expansion through the winter suggests the yield is ok.
I’ve used the knock a couple of times recently and the prices were very reasonable , around £30 return from memory but the flights were full .
 

TheLocalYokel

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I’ve used the knock a couple of times recently and the prices were very reasonable , around £30 return from memory but the flights were full .
I've used Knock as a comparison with Shannon. Knock was one of the original routes when the BRS base began in late 2007. It operated year round until the end of winter 2010/2011after which it was summer-only until the coming winter.

I don't have the winter monthly load factors for Knock but I do have the summer ones from the first summer in 2008. I've reproduced the monthly load factors below for the main summer months (May-September inclusive in chronological order) in each year. On a couple of occasions where I don't have the monthly load factor for a month I've indicated it accordingly, and in 2018 the BRS CAA stats are only available until July thus far.

08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18

???..41..50..51..??..57..60..72..69..73..73
50..48..53..57..61..58..54..75..72..79..81
62..52..58..71..70..67..70..82..75..86..86
83..66..75..69..74..80..86..91..88..93
66..42..53..53..55..59..56..71..75..83

Shannon's load factors for the first three months this year (May the first month was a part month) were respectively 71%, 66%, 80%. This is far better than the early summers for Knock which was one of the reasons I was asking about fares on BRS-OCK. In the past couple of years BRS-OCK has improved considerably with the summer shoulder months. That it lasted so long in those early years with load factors well below Ryanair's normal ones is one of those conundrums that again demonstrate that loads are not the be-all and end-all, especially when within that period Ryanair axed such routes as BRS-Bratislava and BRS-Katowice (now flown by Wizz Air) that had load factors in the 80%s and 90s% nearly all the time.

Ack CAA for raw numbers.

NB The load factors are based on all timetabled flights operating. Within the ten-year period there may have been one or two occasions when cancelled flights skewed the numbers. I take into account cancelled flights when I was aware at the time but I can't be certain I didn't miss one or two when away from the internet for various reasons. However, I believe the general picture gives is an accurate one.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Brexit, Ryanair to Eastern Europe and BRS

With uncertainty still washing over Brexit, a hard deal or no deal (whatever they really mean because different people seem to have varying ideas) that seriously impacted on EU citizens' rights to work in the UK could affect BRS's passenger numbers to a significant degree.

I've looked at Ryanair's BRS passenger numbers on the routes to such countries as Poland, Hungary, Lithuania and Romania, all countries that provide essential help in the region in the form of such occupations as bus driver and care worker. The loads are very high and have been for quite a number of years.

Below are the main routes in this category showing the load factors this year for the months of May to August, the August passenger figures and the total passenger figures for 2017. Some of the routes are important leisure routes from the UK as well, but BRS would still take a considerable hit in passenger numbers if many of these travellers from those countries together with their family and friends ceased to come here.

Lithuania

Kaunas 92% 96% 91% 98%; 4,456; 46,900

Hungary

Budapest 95% 96% 99% 95%; 4,693; 57,900

Romania

Bucharest , 96% 96% 97% 96%; 2,915; 33,900

Poland

Gdansk 96% 98% 96% 96%; 5,099; 32,500
Poznan 97% 96% 98% 98%; 3,307; 37,600
Rzeszow 98% 97% 98% 98%; 3,316; 37,900
Warsaw Modlin 98% 97% 97% 98%; 4,771; 73,800
Wroclaw 85%* 97% 99% 98%; 3,303; 39,200
Krakow 10,489 operated by Ryanair and easyJet so cannot establish the individual airline load factors; between them they carried 126,900 passengers in 2017

* I might have missed a cancelled rotation in May as the 85% is out of sync with the rest.

Added to that can be Wizz Air's Katowice route (4,566 passengers in August and 41,800 in 2017) and easyJet's Prague route (9,002 passengers in August and 71,600 in 2017). It can be seen that all the loads are currently holding up consistently. 2017 saw a total of 560,800 passengers on the routes as a whole.

Incidentally, in August the Shannon route saw 3,049 passengers, load factor 89.6%. In comparison Knock handled 4,893 passengers, load factor of 92.4%.
 

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