Ryanair

[Eoin]

My local airport is Shannon and I cannot stress how important these new routes are for us (I understand the new SNN route is important for BRS too). Passenger numbers dwindled last year(0.2%) growth. Management gave FR some sweet incentives for the new routes to REU,LPL,BRS and expanded service to MAN however I'm gobsmacked, these services are not being advertised!!! I do hope the BRS flight does well as people over here have been going on about it ever since it was cut in 2014 however its not good to see people suggest the route mightn't even return next year!!

 

[Jerry]

Well if anyone wants a cheap weekend away the Shannon route is it! Prices are low throughout the summer ranging from £12.99 to £23.99 1 way though it would be a long weekend as the flights are on Thursdays and Mondays.

 

[ksvix392]

currently 64 seats taken on brs-snn, 41 on snn-brs..looking up a bit

 

[ksvix392]

bristol-shannon 85. shannon-bristol 86. embarrasing..

 

[Jerry]

Depends on the yield

 

[TheLocalYokel]

bristol-shannon 85. shannon-bristol 86. embarrasing..

As Jerry said, the yield is the key. I have no idea what sort of yield Ryanair expects on this service, nor how it is composed. For example, one or both airports might be helping with subsidies of one sort or another.

A look at Bristol-Knock would have caused raised eyebrows if the route was being measured on load factors alone, at least in its early years. Until recently it was easily the worst of the Ryanair BRS routes in terms of load factor and is still probably the worst (although Bristol-Cologne that began last winter at 4 x weekly hasn't been sensational).

BRS-NOC began in November 2007 when the FR base at BRS opened. Until 2011 it was year-round, and will revert to that schedule in the forthcoming winter. Its first two months (November and December 2007) saw monthly load factors of 46% in both months.

Since then I have the monthly load factors for the main summer months which I copy below:

2008 (June-September only): 50 62 83 66
2009 (May-September): 46 48 52 66 42
2010 (May-September): 50 53 58 75 53
2011 (May-September): 51 57 71 69 53
2012 (June-September): 61 70 74 55
2013 (May-September): 57 58 67 80 59
2014 (May-September): 60 54 70 86 56
2015 (May-September): 72 75 82 91 71
2016: (May-September): 69 72 75 88 75
2017: (May-September): 73 79 86 93 83

So BRS-NOC despite struggling for loads in its early years has been operating for over ten years.

Ryanair operated Bristol-Zadar last summer for the first time and its May-September loads factors were 73 90 86 90 85. Not dissimilar to BRS-NOC yet Zadar was axed but Knock has become a year-round route again.

When I looked an hour or so ago BRS-SNN had 86 occupied seats (lf 45.5%) and SNN-BRS 94 occupied seats (lf just under 50%).

 

[Eoin]

Ryanair signed a new 5 year deal with Shannon in February which seen new routes to REU,LPL,BRS and an increased Manchester programme. I have been told by my sources that it was a sweet deal which suggests to me that Ryanair got reduced landing charges/subsidies ect. Hopefully management this side of the sea acknowledge the poor loads and advertise it. .
Eoin

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Shannon

Second rotation of the new service tomorrow.

Currently 130 seats occupied on BRS-SNN and 118 on SNN-BRS.

As a comparison the new service between Liverpool and Shannon tomorrow is currently showing 47 seats occupied on LPL-SNN and 58 on SNN-LPL. The first Liverpool-Shannon route reportedly showed 30 on LPL-SNN and 28 on SNN-LPL.

Given the traditional relationship between the Liverpool region and Ireland I'm surprised that the take-up is not higher.

 

[Eoin]

Probably an over-saturated market. Currently 12 weekly flights from ORK/SNN/NOC-LPL and 31 weekly flights from ORK/SNN/NOC-MAN equating to 5,244 one way seats each week or 10,488 return seats.

 

[superking]

With the LPL figures it makes the Brs figures look good.As we have said many times nearly always comes down to yield.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Ibiza

FR8265 from Ibiza due 1205 is estimating 2153 - it's just crossed the Devon coast at Exmouth on its way in.

The outbound FR8264 due to depart at 0630 today was showing 'next information' for much of the morning.

No later flights appear to have been impacted so perhaps they found another aircraft to operate the remainder of this aircraft's schedule today.

 

[kraktoa]

The summer strike threat has begun. Many reports of Unions in UK and Spain demanding action from RyanAir before June 30 or strikes will be planned.

 

[Marko1]

Some 2019 summer flights are now available to book

 

[ksvix392]

Great! any new route predictions/axes for 2019?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Great! any new route predictions/axes for 2019?

You never know with Ryanair. They have a habit of introducing new flights at a late stage in the run-up to a season, especially the summer season. Reus and Bergerac were late entries for summer 18, albeit at reduced frequencies compared with previous years, after it seemed they had been axed completely. Shannon came along too after the main summer 18 programme had been announced.

 

[Severn]

Winter 18/19
Ryanair contines to grow at BRS each winter, with this upcoming season no exception.

Winter 16/17 - 69 departures per week

Winter 17/18 - 76 departures per week (10% increase on 16/17)

Winter 18/19 - 88 departures per week (15% increase on 17/18 / 28% increase on 16/17!)


Below are the weekly departures for each destination from BRS for a week in Feb 17 / Feb 18 / Feb 19

Airport - 2017 / 2018 / 2019
DUB - 19 / 19 / 19
VCE - 2 / 4 / 7
ALC - 5 / 5 / 6
AGP - 6 / 6 / 6
WMI - 4 / 4 / 4
CGN - 0 / 4 / 4
FAO - 3 / 3 / 3
TFS - 3 / 3 / 3
KRK - 3 / 3 / 3
BUD - 3 / 3 / 3
BGY - 3 / 3 / 3
ACE - 4 / 4 / 3
OTP - 1 / 2 / 2
KUN - 2 / 2 / 2
MLA - 2 / 2 / 2
GDN - 2 / 2 / 2
WRO - 2 / 2 / 2
POZ - 2 / 2 / 2
RZE - 2 / 2 / 2
LPA - 1 / 1 / 1
NOC - 0 / 0 / 3 *(New for 18/19)
VLC - 0 / 0 / 2 *(New for 18/19)
LIG - 0 / 0 / 2 *(New for 18/19)
SVQ - 0 / 0 / 2 *(New for 18/19)

Note - the figures above represent the weekly departures from BRS for the same week each February (2017-2019).
The number of departures remain the same throughout the Winter season with the exception of around a month around Christmas where there are increases.

 

[Marko1]

It's somewhat strange to see Ryanair expanding during the winter but somewhat stagnant during the summer when demand should be highest. I always feel that Ryanair has never reached their full potential from Bristol and I'm not sure why.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It's somewhat strange to see Ryanair expanding during the winter but somewhat stagnant during the summer when demand should be highest. I always feel that Ryanair has never reached their full potential from Bristol and I'm not sure why.

There are sometimes similar comments about Ryanair and potential at those airports in the BHX and LBA Ryanair threads for example.

 

[Jerry]

I wonder if it's because the routes they do have better potential for the winter than in the summer? Also Easyjet is so strong at BRS Ryanair may not think it profitable to undergo large expansion.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I wonder if it's because the routes they do have better potential for the winter than in the summer? Also Easyjet is so strong at BRS Ryanair may not think it profitable to undergo large expansion.

That would not apply at BHX or LBA where there are similar laments about lack of Ryanair growth in recent years.

I suppose that in the end it's down to profitability. Even though loads might be very high at BRS generally for Ryanair, there might be other opportunities elsewhere where yields are better, perhaps particularly in summer.

It might also be the case that BRS doesn't always lie down and give Ryanair what it wants in terms of charges. That seemed to be made clear in summer 2013 when the airport had a run-in with Ryanair over peak hour and overnight charges. The airline responded by reducing their BRS base from five aircraft to two but, tellingly, they did not reduce their network or frequencies. Instead they used aircraft from other bases to maintain the status quo.

Usually, Ryanair makes a big noise when it 'punishes' airports for not doing its bidding but in the BRS case no public comment was made at all. Since then the base has grown to four aircraft albeit a significant number of BRS flights are still operated by aircraft from other bases - something that helps to even the peaks and troughs a tiny bit.

Some members might recall that a couple of years ago one of Ryanair's senior figures (I think it was Kenny Jacobs) said they were intent on becoming BRS's biggest airline. I thought at the time that was bull and I've not changed my mind. The only way that might happen is for easyJet to downsize at the airport in a very big way.