This interview with the Loganair CEO specifically addresses the issue of CWL. The questions are listed below the video but my browser is being uncooperative so I don’t know his answers!


Addressing a question specific to CWL, the Loganair CEO said that demand generally has reduced by 85%-90% and by the end of this year was likely to be still down by 25%-40%. Operating a single daily route might mean that if it had to be reduced to 4-5 weekly and there was still too much capacity then any further reduction would leave the route no good to anyone.

He did say though that one answer might be to include en-route stops on single-daily services, and he thought this might be seen more and more in the future, and gave CWL-MAN-EDI or CWL-LBA-EDI as possible examples.

He did not say though that CWL would be back next year as he did with some summer season routes elsewhere that have been removed from this summer's programme.
 
Addressing a question specific to CWL, the Loganair CEO said that demand generally has reduced by 85%-90% and by the end of this year was likely to be still down by 25%-40%. Operating a single daily route might mean that if it had to be reduced to 4-5 weekly and there was still too much capacity then any further reduction would leave the route no good to anyone.
That still shouldn't mean that the route isn't viable for the future or from winter onwards 1 daily and increase to 2 daily for the summer. I'll listen to the interview later but I suspect that they don't want to operate to Cardiff and I can't see them returning.
 
Operating a single daily route might mean that if it had to be reduced to 4-5 weekly and there was still too much capacity then any further reduction would leave the route no good to anyone.
These are the passenger stats for Edinburgh for last winter and in brackets with 40% off them, i'll leave out March because of Flybe going bust and the start of COVID. Loganair's biggest aircraft is a 49 seater even allowing for just 2 daily flights whereas Flybe operated 3, the capacity for available seats wise is the number in red.
I know it's only a rough calculation and it doesn't take into account yield but if they are using the Flybe passenger numbers from last winter then even 40% less demand should still mean the route is viable especially with Loganair's smaller aircraft.
November 2019 9136 (5482) 5880
December 2019 8390 (5034) 5880
January 2020 7624 (4585) 5880
February 2020 7663 (4598) 5488
 
Exactly. Their lack of interest or commitment maybe shows they are not what the airport needs right now.....
 
These are the passenger stats for Edinburgh for last winter and in brackets with 40% off them, i'll leave out March because of Flybe going bust and the start of COVID. Loganair's biggest aircraft is a 49 seater even allowing for just 2 daily flights whereas Flybe operated 3, the capacity for available seats wise is the number in red.
I know it's only a rough calculation and it doesn't take into account yield but if they are using the Flybe passenger numbers from last winter then even 40% less demand should still mean the route is viable especially with Loganair's smaller aircraft.
November 2019 9136 (5482) 5880
December 2019 8390 (5034) 5880
January 2020 7624 (4585) 5880
February 2020 7663 (4598) 5488
Listening to the entire recording (CWL only took up a small proportion) I took it that Loganair are down around 85% across their network currently in terms of passenger traffic and don't expect to be better than 40% down by the end of this year. By the end of next year they hope to be only around 20% down.

There was a specific question about Norwich and the CEO said they hope to resume NWI-EDI in September which some will find surprising that it, along with the EXT-EDI, appear satisfactory for Loganair whilst CWL isn't, unless there is some corporate or university connectivity (see next paragraph).

He made a big thing about airports at both ends of a route coming together to help Loganair with any proposed new route. When asked about market size being put forward by an airport when canvassing a new route he said it's necessary to dig down to see the type of passenger. Ideally there should be some corporate or university connection between the airports as that usually maintains a consistent and reliable yield. He gave an example of an airport that he declined to name that isn't doing much to help Loganair deal with the realities of Covid-19 as that airport believes that the market will still be there. He said he pointed out to that airport that one of the major customers on the route has recently announced a huge number of redundancies, so demand will be less. He is also concerned about more home-working and video conferencing damping down demand post-Covid.

By the end of 2022 the CEO said they hope to have settled on four aircraft types for the airline: the small Embraer 135/145; ATR 42/72; DH6; BN Islander. That will mean offloading the remaining Saabs.

I still have this feeling that the WG is actively pursuing an alternative for the main domestic routes that are so far left unfilled.
 
He made a big thing about airports at both ends of a route coming together to help Loganair with any proposed new route.
Maybe the problem is then that CWL wasn't willing to give Loganair the help they wanted especially if it didn't lead to say a base? We'll probably never know!
If I remember correctly Norwich and Exeter have the same owners so maybe some sort of deal was done through them.
I do hope that the WG have something up their sleeves!
 
Is it surprising that Cardiff Airport has been quiet? Why publicise bad news? If they were approached by a media outlet they provide a statement but maybe the media is not fully aware of the situation at present because of COVID-19.

Couple this with the fact the airport gets brought into political matters due to its owners then no wonder everything is kept as quiet as possible.

The airport no doubt is always talking to operators however with COVID-19 it’s not been possible to visit operators and have the meetings as previous. Also uncertainty over COVId-19 would have made a lot of operators halt any expansion plans. (Some have seen it as an opportunity such as WizzAir. Also route planners have been extremely busy 2nd guessing what countries are to announce and have had to come up with two or three plans so talking to an airport would not be a priority.

There were previous mentions of support and don’t forget we are still in Europe for now so must abide by state aid rules. Right now it maybe a brave Welsh Government who will divert funds that may be needed elsewhere to assist the airport. It may be something that’s required as we recover from COVID-19.

It is going to be difficult for Cardiff Airport and we are likely going to put up with the limited offering that will be available until confidence isn’t restored within the industry.

There may be opportunities that come from this and Cardiff Airport will hopefully be in a position to jump on them. Unless there is a shock announcement I will personally be pleasantly surprised if we could get Edinburgh back within 6 months to a year.
 
I think the point being fundamentally missed here is that of yield. From my recollection of Flybe stats, the likes of EXT-EDI had a higher starting point than the equivalent routes from CWL. When I last saw any figures when Loganair was a Flybe franchise, the NWI-EDI yields were more than double those at CWL. If it's volume that's under pressure and not so much yield, a route with lower yields will be chopped first. The decisions aren't surprising.

On EDI-MAN, I think there was an expectation that the likes of MAN-EXT and MAN-NQY connections would have been in place with another airline post-Flybe. Coronavirus put paid to that. Even though there are/were off-peak services non-stop on EDI-EXT and EDI-NQY, quite a lot of passengers flew via MAN at peak morning/evening times. Without the EDI-MAN-EXT traffic in particular, EDI-MAN would look as sick as a dog. Rail competition hasn't changed, but then even Flybe dropped GLA/MAN last winter and Loganair didn't pick it up then.
 
I think the point being fundamentally missed here is that of yield. From my recollection of Flybe stats, the likes of EXT-EDI had a higher starting point than the equivalent routes from CWL.
Interesting considering both have the competition of Easyjet at BRS not that far away with the large capacity and cheap prices there.
Hopefully one day routes like Edinburgh will return but I suspect it could be quite a while before the link is returned and the Scottish and Welsh capitals are connected again.
 
Interesting considering both have the competition of Easyjet at BRS not that far away with the large capacity and cheap prices there.
Hopefully one day routes like Edinburgh will return but I suspect it could be quite a while before the link is returned and the Scottish and Welsh capitals are connected again.

I think part of that is down to consumer mentality. EXT has had Flybe there for a long time running a consistent service. CWL had Bmibaby, lost them, had Flybe, lost them, had Cityjet, lost them, then Flybe again, lost them. The inconsistency of operation and popularity of Easyjet in South Wales often leads to Welsh passengers searching Bristol first.
The leisure market on the other hand in the Southwest has never really had a big offering. TUI with 1 aircraft and Flybe with some Spanish routes, so Southwest passengers in that market probably also look at Bristol first too, whereas the consistent offering of domestic routes at EXT probably gave them a good following.
 
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I think the point being fundamentally missed here is that of yield. From my recollection of Flybe stats, the likes of EXT-EDI had a higher starting point than the equivalent routes from CWL. When I last saw any figures when Loganair was a Flybe franchise, the NWI-EDI yields were more than double those at CWL. If it's volume that's under pressure and not so much yield, a route with lower yields will be chopped first. The decisions aren't surprising.

On EDI-MAN, I think there was an expectation that the likes of MAN-EXT and MAN-NQY connections would have been in place with another airline post-Flybe. Coronavirus put paid to that. Even though there are/were off-peak services non-stop on EDI-EXT and EDI-NQY, quite a lot of passengers flew via MAN at peak morning/evening times. Without the EDI-MAN-EXT traffic in particular, EDI-MAN would look as sick as a dog. Rail competition hasn't changed, but then even Flybe dropped GLA/MAN last winter and Loganair didn't pick it up then.
This is a full transcript of the discussion between the anna.aero interviewer and Jonathan Hinkles, Loganair CEO, relating to CWL.

Interviewer:

You ended Cardiff to Glasgow recently so the Welsh capital is no longer connected to Edinburgh or Glasgow but it is to Aberdeen and Teesside with Eastern Airways. What factors in your opinion are preventing Cardiff to Edinburgh and Glasgow?

CEO:

It was a really tough decision on Cardiff and we got to a position looking at it where we were operating a daily service. Demand across pretty much everything for the time being is going to be down. At the moment demand's down by 85 to 90% but demand, even when it starts to come back, will certainly through to the end of this year probably be 25 to 40% down.

When you're operating a single-daily flight that then means you're probably down to operating four or five flights a week. If that still means you're carrying too much capacity you can't cut capacity any further without leaving a service that is useless to anybody. That's the kind of position we reached with the Cardiff operations not helped, I would have to say, albeit they've got their own commercial decisions to make, but the influx of capacity that easyJet have elected to put on Bristol Glasgow, Bristol Edinburgh was a secondary factor in that as well, but when you're operating a daily flight and the market falls away it's very difficult to keep the service in there that is actually usable to the customer.
 
The inconsistency of operation and popularity of Easyjet in South Wales often leads to Welsh passengers searching Bristol first.
In the end it always seems to come back to Easyjet.The airline that Cardiff needs but will never get and seems to be its biggest obstacle to progression especially now Flybe has gone.
 
What a lot of operators forget is that there are several hundred thousand of us in Wales who live to the west of the airport and have no desire to drive past our own airport, to BRS or anywhere else. Then several hours later have to fly over our homes if travelling westwards e.g. Dublin or Cork.
 
In the end it always seems to come back to Easyjet.The airline that Cardiff needs but will never get and seems to be its biggest obstacle to progression especially now Flybe has gone.
The Loganair CEO said, "......the influx of capacity that easyJet have elected to put on Bristol Glasgow, Bristol Edinburgh was a secondary factor in that as well".

easyJet's BRS-EDI has been up to 5 x daily for a long time and BRS-GLA up to 4 x daily also for a long time (it was 5 x daily on one day a week for part of last summer). In April easyJet increased BRS-EDI to 6 x daily on some days and BRS-GLA to 5 x daily on some days from September.

Did one additional flight on some days really make a difference to Loganair, Mr Hinkles? BRS-EDI and BRS-GLA already had a significant number of daily flights which you would have been aware of when you decided to operate CWL-GLA and CWL-EDI. It sounds a lame excuse to me.
 
I suspect that loganair has overstretched themselves and belatedly decided to cut back the weaker links . After all look what they did to Bristol after its partner in crime BMI went under . Cardiff probably better without them - a once daily edi or gla is probably no good for anyone. The airport is better off tempting aer lingus back and maybe getting eastern to fill the domestic gaps.
 
Did one additional flight on some days really make a difference to Loganair, Mr Hinkles? BRS-EDI and BRS-GLA already had a significant number of daily flights which you would have been aware of when you decided to operate CWL-GLA and CWL-EDI. It sounds a lame excuse to me.
TLY and Marko I agree with your comments entirely, he knows he can't compete with easyjet, and threw in the towel
Easyjet has always been a constant as opposition to CWL on the route. I've taken a look at the yearly stats back to 2015 and in general Easyjet have done about 4x the traffic of CWL on the EDI route. Personally i can understand with GLA as from CWL it seems the weaker route, Flybe seemed to me to use it as a gap filler, but to me CWL-EDI should be the type of route that suits Loganair and the fact that they don't seem to be want to even look at it for the future is concerning.
The airport is better off tempting aer lingus back and maybe getting eastern to fill the domestic gaps.
Hopefully Aer Lingus Regional will consider a return but i don't see where Eastern would get the aircraft from as they seem to have commited all spare resources to Southampton.
 
I think part of that is down to consumer mentality. EXT has had Flybe there for a long time running a consistent service. CWL had Bmibaby, lost them, had Flybe, lost them, had Cityjet, lost them, then Flybe again, lost them. The inconsistency of operation and popularity of Easyjet in South Wales often leads to Welsh passengers searching Bristol first.
The leisure market on the other hand in the Southwest has never really had a big offering. TUI with 1 aircraft and Flybe with some Spanish routes, so Southwest passengers in that market probably also look at Bristol first too, whereas the consistent offering of domestic routes at EXT probably gave them a good following.
I've looked back at CAA stats each year until 2002 and listed the annual passenger totals on the CWL and EXT routes to both EDI and GLA. The figures are presented thus:

Year: CWL to EDI/GLA: EXT to EDI/GLA

2002 29,000/19,000 : nil/nil
2003 132,000/90,000* : nil/nil
2004 152,000/51,000* : 36,000/34,000
2005 160,000/33,000* : 71,000/42,000
2006 156,000/87,000* : 83,000/53,000
2007 158,000/77,000 : 68,000/56,000
2008 163,000/84,000 : 68,000/39,000
2009 161,000/56,000 : 61,000/33,000
2010 111,000/52,000 : 54,000/26,000
2011 84,000/47,000 : 51,000/24,000
2012 78,000/40,000 : 40,000/26,000
2013 77,000/48,000 : 37,000/24,000
2014 58,000/28,000 : 38,000/21,000
2015 69,000/18,000 : 45,000/3,000
2016 94,000/38,000 : 45,000/33,000
2017 99,000/29,000 : 48,000/39,000
2018 102,000/33,000 : 48,000/40,000
2019 111,000/25,000 : 58,000/34,000

* part way through 2003 bmibaby switched their GLA route to PIK (Prestwick) and of the 90,000 passengers flown on the 'Glasgow' service that year, 36,000 were to PIK. In 2004 bmibaby contracted Air Wales to operate the CWL-PIK route for them and this remained until April 2006 when Air Wales went out of business.The route was switched back to GLA and of the 87,000 passengers carried on the 'Glasgow' service that year 5,000 were to PIK by Air Wales on behalf of bmibaby

In terms of proven market in numbers on the EDI route CWL been well ahead of EXT for the entire period under review. The numbers in bmibaby days suggest that there is a big enough market for a 2 x daily Ryanair.

GLA is not as clearcut. Although CWL has generally carried more passenger than EXT on the route, recent years are much closer, although for much of 2015 EXT had no GLA route at all.

easyJet was operating at BRS during the bmibaby years and there were also BA franchise flights to both EDI and GLA alongside easyJet until May 2007 when Flybe bought BAConnect and closed the 5-aircraft BRS base.

All this of course is written in the knowledge that yields are unknown to most of us, although with EDI in particular the market size ought to provide sufficient flexibility for a reasonable yield.
 
I've 'liked' the link, not the airline reply which seems at odds with itself.
 

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