Potential Routes

[StanMan]

I've often wondered if Sean M works for one of the bodies who are involved in the commercial airline route approval process in the UK - there are up to 3, depending upon the route (ie UK domestic, European etc etc)

 

[MrFenner]

SeanM previously worked briefly with Network Planning Analyst team at Jet2 and has generally not worked in the aviation industry, according to his LinkedIn. However, his keen interest in aviation has clearly built his reputation in positive light allowing him to have various trusted contacts across the industry.

I believe he also has access to ACL systems too, meaning full access to slots at UK airports which is often where speculated routes can come from.

Overall a trusted source, with the likes of Simon Calder using his vast aviation analytical knowledge in some of his articles.

 

[CAN&I]

Can it be leaks if it's in the public domain with flights on sale?

The word "leak" implies intention, although "leak" could also be used by some to describe an unintended or unavoidable source of information prior to a formally managed announcement. Perhaps its better to describe such an event as an unintentional "squirt".

Most "leaks" happen because people search and find it online, so it's already in the public domain. You could say the Airline leaked it by putting the flights on sale.

Looking back through these forums, the Wizz news was posted with a BBC news link at 0619 AM with quotes from Spencer Birns, Ken Skates and Owain Jones. The CWL social media release and website release wasn't until 0930. So obviously the 3 people above had already leaked the information to the press before the official CWL announcement.

Similarly with Qatar, Business Traveller put a press release out which was posted on here at 1044am, with that article having quotes from Deb Barber. The link to the CWL press release wasn't posted until gone 1300.

There's a difference been self-promotion and releases to external media. News items and announcements are often published by the organisation itself simultaneously or within minutes. Equally, it can take hours or even days to appear after an official announcement has been made. There is nothing unusual in that.

Managed media and press releases, which often include official quotes, are normally embargoed until a specific time and date or alternatively released as "live". Representatives are also often lined up to speak directly to news outlets prior to the detail appearing on their company’s website or social media feeds.

The examples you provided can’t be described as "leaks" in any shape or form as the information is shared by the organisation as part of a managed process. The individuals didn’t leak information to the media just because the information appeared on a website later on. Their words or interviews all formed part of an formally arranged communication plan.

Aviation enthusiasts can't be held accountable for "leaks" when flights are on sale, or CWL themselves have done press interviews, with their own marketing team lagging behind in time.

Who said aviation enthusiasts were “accountable for leaks"?

If the information is available in the public domain, intentionally or otherwise, that’s fair enough.

If an enthusiast shares confidential information not for public consumption leaked to them by and alleged “inside source”, that’s entirely their decision. Whether it’s the right thing to do or whether it’s more important to score points amongst their fellow enthusiasts is a matter between their conscious and their ego.

Asides, and again, just because a "marketing team" "lags" behind a media release or a formally managed interview when it comes to the sharing of official news on an organisation’s website or social media feeds, that's not a "leak". That’s a normal manged process and a well-trodden coms path.

How often have we seen companies brief the market / the city, the media, the staff and, finally, the wider public in that order?

SeanM is a credit to any enthusiast. He has contacts and must have some kind of access to booking systems, as he often posts schedules before they are available on airline website. Example today he posted Liverpool - Tirana with schedules, but they aren't available on the website or the app. He can't be doing anything wrong as he would've been pulled up by the Airlines. Ultimately for the airlines, if the flights are due to go on sale, it's free advertising.

Completely agree, although nobody is implying he has done or is doing anything wrong. Just interested in contributor's opinions and if anyone knew how or where he sourced such a huge amount of information. Must be a job in itself keeping up to date with so much detail over thousands of routes.

SeanM previously worked briefly with Network Planning Analyst team at Jet2 and has generally not worked in the aviation industry, according to his LinkedIn. However, his keen interest in aviation has clearly built his reputation in positive light allowing him to have various trusted contacts across the industry.

I believe he also has access to ACL systems too, meaning full access to slots at UK airports which is often where speculated routes can come from.

Overall a trusted source, with the likes of Simon Calder using his vast aviation analytical knowledge in some of his articles.

Thanks MrFenner. Thats really interesting. Must take a huge amount of effort to monitor change amongst the thousands of routes he must have access to.

Just one question... ACL? Is this a planning system?

 

[79MX]

Thanks for your openness StanMan. Some interesting theories there for sure. Volotea is a credible shout but its also fair to say they are "small fry" in the low-cost world right now with just 30-ish aircraft. Would CWL necessarily appear high up on their priority list if they were looking at expanding into the UK market? Just throwing it out there...

With regards Jet2 and easyJet, the question has to be why would either need CWL right now? Jet2 might be one to watch long-term but easyJet? Just can't see it, such is their dominance in the south Wales market today. They're already slowly pushing TUI out and Ryanair's market in the area is less than half the size. They'll continue to to push both at their expense to gain an even larger presence at BRS before even contemplating CWL surely? Would love to be proved completely and utterly wrong for sure, but it just seems a distant possibility for now.

Ryanair on the other hand seems to be the best of the few credible options open at present. They at least have a virtual blank slate at CWL to mount a push against easyJet and the LFs on their AGP/ALC/DUB/FAO/TFS services are all very healthy indeed. Whether Ryanair sees CWL as a priority against other airports vying for capacity is another question.

Still think there's a long road ahead unfortunately.


Not sure why the dig is necessary. It’s not easy navigating these boards or being able to tell when someone is merely speculating or stating fact (or stating what they are convinced is fact), or even just out to pick fault in others to inflate their own fragile sense of superiority.

Speculation is all well and good and yes, it can be fun.

However, you'll know full well that some commentators tend to blur the lines between speculation and fact, intentionally or otherwise, and will often push a belief-based narrative as unequivocal fact to the point of narcissistic obsession. That’s when it becomes less fun, almost dangerous at times, especially when others would dare wish to counter speculation with a little realism, possibly even an objective fact or two.

Equally, endless speculation going round and round in circles over the same theories to the point of argument and frustration amongst said speculators doesn't always make for great reading or doesn't necessarily come across as "fun". Just saying.

Asides, digs and petulance make forums a less than welcoming environment and more of an echo chamber where only certain voices are given credence or are allowed to be heard. You see it all the time on online forums. Hopefully that’s not the case here and all opinions, outlooks and objectives are welome.


Thanks for answering the question. Sure there may be slack to pick up if Vueling decided to move on, but from what you are saying you agree it doesn't amount to a credible business case for Jet2 curently on the basis suggested.

In many ways, CWL being a smaller airport could help Volotea, and vice versa, as there will be less competition so they can establish better, they can dip their toe properly into the UK market, and I’d imagine there would be fairly attractive incentives from the airport to attract them, and they can grow their name in the UK more.

 

[Jerry]

I've often wondered if Sean M works for one of the bodies who are involved in the commercial airline route approval process in the UK - there are up to 3, depending upon the route (ie UK domestic, European etc etc)

He's an aviation enthusiast. Tbf to him he does a lot of work with his account built up relationships with airline staff and airport staff as well and I've no doubt spends a lot of time doing research and going through emails notifications about new routes etc. Have to applaud his dedication.

In many ways, CWL being a smaller airport could help Volotea, and vice versa, as there will be less competition so they can establish better, they can dip their toe properly into the UK market, and I’d imagine there would be fairly attractive incentives from the airport to attract them, and they can grow their name in the UK more.

Volotea don't really do the UK though but they did fly to Cardiff for a few one offs for the Rugby World Cup so the relationship with the airport team is there.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Seems practically everyone on here has "contacts". Its surprising any airport is able to sustain business on a commercially confidential basis in such a competitive market, especially given so much "inside information" is willingly and openly passed to members of the public for debate online.

I think you've run away with this. Many members are from the industry or know people in the industry. My comment was from someone at BRS that is aware Jet2 want to expand but currently can't. They aren't top management but that information has been freely told to all staff. With them being freely told that information likely means it's not a confidential comment to pass on. Not sure why that's an issue.

If an enthusiast shares confidential information not for public consumption leaked to them by and alleged “inside source”, that’s entirely their decision. Whether it’s the right thing to do or whether it’s more important to score points amongst their fellow enthusiasts is a matter between their conscious and their ego.

What confidential information? I think it's fairly obvious to everyone that BRS is full and is often a topic of discussion across many platforms. No point scoring or ego's, just a sharing of information that many will take an interest in.

Who said aviation enthusiasts were “accountable for leaks"?

By the narrative of the past 2 pages of posts...

A secretive approach by all involved parties is perfectly normal where credible, multi-million (or billion!) pound businesses are concerned. It demonstrates utmost respect to commercial confidentiality, as should always be the case. That’s why, in the real world (again - sorry if this offends anyone!), it’s difficult for some to take online “inside information”, rumour and speculation at face value.

The only big story to "leak" over the last year or two was news of TUI’s 2nd and 4th based aircraft. Most “fans” had already guessed that was coming through studying route updates and booking engines, although not all of the new routes (HRG, FAO, etc) trickled through beforehand.

No-one guessed it. It was there on the website for the whole world to see. How can that be a leak if TUI themselves had already leaked it? People put 2+2 together by checking those on sale schedules to come to the conclusion another aircraft would be required.

So aside from Flybe, there have been no "leaks".

 

[CAN&I]

I think you've run away with this. Many members are from the industry or know people in the industry. My comment was from someone at BRS that is aware Jet2 want to expand but currently can't. They aren't top management but that information has been freely told to all staff. With them being freely told that information likely means it's not a confidential comment to pass on. Not sure why that's an issue.

Not running away with anything. Just an observation. Not sure why you are quoting a conversation about Jet 2 / Bristol from a page back? Matters have moved on, as you requested.

What confidential information? I think it's fairly obvious to everyone that BRS is full and is often a topic of discussion across many platforms. No point scoring or ego's, just a sharing of information that many will take an interest in.

Again, just a general observation concerning the principle of sharing confidential or commercially sensitive information.

By the narrative of the past 2 pages of posts...

Which “narrative”? You're talking in riddles and seem intent on finding issue and picking fault at a supposed "narrative" that simply isn't there.

No-one guessed it. It was there on the website for the whole world to see. How can that be a leak if TUI themselves had already leaked it? People put 2+2 together by checking those on sale schedules to come to the conclusion another aircraft would be required.

We seem to have inadvertently joined a pedantry enthusiasts’ group...

So aside from Flybe, there have been no "leaks".

Aside your assertation that two of the airport's previous CEOs "leaked" information to the media, apparantly because they didn't wait until the news appeared on the airport's website and social media feeds.

 

[Samdorob]

From looking back through posts on here both FR and VY had route announcements on 12th Nov last year. FR was at other UK airports, but looks like this week in November may be a time for airline route updates.

Well Jet2 have just announced a base at Gatwick. Only time will tell whether the rumours about Cardiff come true.

P.S - I don’t think it would be Jet2 at Cardiff unfortunately.

 

[Jack Ruckley]

Well Jet2 have just announced a base at Gatwick. Only time will tell whether the rumours about Cardiff come true.

P.S - I don’t think it would be Jet2 at Cardiff unfortunately.

Once again it seems the CEO’s words have been different from Jet2, they said after Luton and Bournemouth last year no more bases for a while and it seems LGW is the next.

It just seems they are after TUI’s bases now which can only mean a matter of time until we see them at Cardiff.

Hopefully something big is on the horizon at Cardiff

 

[Jerry]

Once again it seems the CEO’s words have been different from Jet2, they said after Luton and Bournemouth last year no more bases for a while and it seems LGW is the next.

It just seems they are after TUI’s bases now which can only mean a matter of time until we see them at Cardiff.

Hopefully something big is on the horizon at Cardiff

Tbf it looks like Gatwick may well have been an opportunity they had to take. It's a slot restricted airport especially for an airline like Jet2 which requires slots in the morning and completes thier South East/London presence. It'll be interesting to see where they go after that though, would be nice to think Cardiff may well be on their radar for the future but I wouldn't expect them any time soon.

 

[gulftraveller]

I may be wrong but I think the LGW move is more to do with the retreat of Wizzair than targeting TUI.

 

[Statto]

Both things can be true. They have an ambition to weaken TUI considering they are their major competitor by some margin and Wizz have provided them the opportunity to do so

 

[79MX]

He's an aviation enthusiast. Tbf to him he does a lot of work with his account built up relationships with airline staff and airport staff as well and I've no doubt spends a lot of time doing research and going through emails notifications about new routes etc. Have to applaud his dedication.


Volotea don't really do the UK though but they did fly to Cardiff for a few one offs for the Rugby World Cup so the relationship with the airport team is there.

Volotea not doing the UK much isn’t the biggest hurdle imo. If they want to test the UK waters then they may as well do it where there is less competition, strong incentives to do so (this is a complete assumption on my part please correct me if I’m wrong) as well as strong potential to expand

 

[Starflyer]

The Flybe issue all those years ago was that a press release had been issued under embargo and the embargo was broken by a certain media outlet. I don't think that was deliberate - it can happen and did.

Volotea management have a long-standing aversion to the UK market. As I understand it, it’s viewed as a long-ish sector for very low yields. Investment from Aegean is likely to mean their focus stays across the south of Europe rather than coming north.

Have patience. Something will happen soon. Excitement may be Mounting.

 

[CWL94]

The Flybe issue all those years ago was that a press release had been issued under embargo and the embargo was broken by a certain media outlet. I don't think that was deliberate - it can happen and did.

Volotea management have a long-standing aversion to the UK market. As I understand it, it’s viewed as a long-ish sector for very low yields. Investment from Aegean is likely to mean their focus stays across the south of Europe rather than coming north.

Have patience. Something will happen soon. Excitement may be Mounting.

Is Mounting cryptic for something ?

 

[Jerry]

I think also the challenge with Volotea is that the routes Cardiff would be looking to attract ie Barcelona or Mallorca they don't have bases so would require some sort of pattern to operate such a route potentially making it more complicated for them scheduling wise.

 

[fly4gigs]

Hopefully something is announced soon.

 

[Starflyer]

Next week, perhaps. They'll be beavering away ahead of the announcement.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Mounties, Beavers. Anymore clues?

 

[Qing4theloo]

"The smell of Maple Leaves me feeling energised", perhaps ... ?