Random Stuff!!

[KARFA]

Those polls include the don't knows take them out and it's polling in the low 30s which is light years ahead of where it was polling 5 to 6 years ago which

Sure. If you take out the people who say no as well you can get even higher % in favour of independence

 

[Jerry]

Sure. If you take out the people who say no as well you can get even higher % in favour of independence

The don't knows are essentially counted as people who haven't voted.
Look at Brexit technically 52 % of the electorate didn't vote for Brexit as 28% didn't bother voting but they aren't counted because they didn't vote so people say that Brexit won by 52% to 48% of votes cast.

 

[KARFA]

The don't knows are essentially counted as people who haven't voted.
Look at Brexit technically 52 % of the electorate didn't vote for Brexit as 28% didn't bother voting but they aren't counted because they didn't vote so people say that Brexit won by 52% to 48% of votes cast.

they are still people who are not in favour of independence. of course they are also people not in favour of saying no to independence too. however, you can't just dismiss them, and many don't knows may still vote in a referendum.

however, even if we take your line of reasoning and simply ignore the don't knows, the vast majority of people in Wales don't want independence. twice as many people say no to independence than yes.

 

[Jerry]

however, even if we take your line of reasoning and simply ignore the don't knows, the vast majority of people in Wales don't want independence. twice as many people say no to independence than yes.

At the moment yes but support is growing!

 

[KARFA]

of course. and it could do any of plateau, continue to grow, or fall. don't assume it will just keep growing until you get to 51%.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It does set out the start of a road map.
Also Gwlad a small conservative minded pro indy party have put out a lot of articles about finance etc on twitter and Facebook.

I've held the consistent opinion that if a majority of people in Wales desire independence they should be allowed to pursue the goal - the same applies with Scotland, or England for that matter. I would not be directly affected by Wales leaving the Union, although perhaps indirectly, as I'm English and I live in England.

Has the evidence published on pro-Welsh Independence platforms that an independent Wales would prosper economically and politically been verified or tested by experts who are neutral on the subject? We all know it's easy to list a set of arguments that support one's case in almost anything in life, but until they are properly and realistically subjected to disinterested examination it's difficult for them to convince doubters, opponents or 'don't knows'?

Brexit is turning into a disaster because of the UK government approach not necessarily because Brexit was a bad thing in itself.

Recent events with both the crass and grossly ill-judged EU decision to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, and the sluggish and poorly-executed vaccine rollout across the EU, won't have caused a host of Leavers to change their mind.

My view on Brexit was (and remains) that on balance I had favoured Remain, but not by much, and the recent behaviour of the EU leadership certainly hasn't increased any regret I might have had about Leaving.

 

[Jerry]

Has the evidence published on pro-Welsh Independence platforms that an independent Wales would prosper economically and politically been verified or tested by experts who are neutral on the subject?

Not as far as I know. I've seen plenty of arguments by expert's from both sides but not one's that can I suppose can be classed as neutral that I know of anyway. The reality is that it will be down to opinion. In general the indy movement does point to other small countries as a comparison Ireland, Malta, Iceland, Estonia and Slovenia are often used as examples of how Wales can thrive and the unionist movement often points to the deficit and Westminster subsidies as reasons why not.
Problem is though if one side say commissions a report by a neutral observer does that make them neutral?

Recent events with both the crass and grossly ill-judged EU decision to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, and the sluggish and poorly-executed vaccine rollout across the EU, won't have caused a host of Leavers to change their mind.

Apparently the DUP have called for the UK government to invoke article 16 and it appears that inbound checks have been stopped due to potential loyalist threats to the safety of the staff.

Northern Ireland suspends Brexit checks amid safety fears for port staff

Decision came after council withdrew 12 staff at Larne following reports of ‘menacing behaviour’

amp.theguardian.com

 

[KARFA]

Apparently the DUP have called for the UK government to invoke article 16 and it appears that inbound checks have been stopped due to potential loyalist threats to the safety of the staff.

Northern Ireland suspends Brexit checks amid safety fears for port staff

Decision came after council withdrew 12 staff at Larne following reports of ‘menacing behaviour’

amp.theguardian.com

I am not sure where it says that in the story?

Why would article 16 do anything in relation to that problem anyway?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Problem is though if one side say commissions a report by a neutral observer does that make them neutral?

No it doesn't which is why, for example, separate aviation analyst studies commissioned respectively by the Welsh Government and Bristol Airport into APD devolution effects came to opposing conclusions both of which happened to favour the case of the particular commissioning body.

I was thinking more of unsolicited expert views from those with no axe to grind.

Going back to APD devolution, I could easily prepare two lists: one saying why APD should be devolved and the other why it shouldn't. If I supported the first scenario I would use the first list in my argument. if I was in favour of the second scenario I'd produce the second list in support.

We see opinion polls carried out on behalf of, say, the no-smoking lobby with conclusions favouring them or vice versa if a poll is commissioned by the smoking lobby. It often comes down to how a question is framed.

If Wales did gain independence 25 years later there would be those who said it was a success and others who said it was a failure. It largely depends on an individual's point of view on the subject. Although I believe Wales should be allowed independence if there is a clear demand the matter is none of my business directly (although as someone living in England there might be residual effects that could affect me). I have no strong views on the subject either way and if I was an expert on it (I'm certainly not) I would regard someone like me worth listening to in order to get an unbiased opinion.

 

[Jerry]

I am not sure where it says that in the story?

Why would article 16 do anything in relation to that problem anyway?

It was in this article.

DUP says ‘unmitigated disaster’ Brexit deal for Northern Ireland should be suspended

MPs told of how Brexit bureaucracy leaves lorries stranded for hours without right paperwork

www.google.com

 

[KARFA]

Yes, and I agree with the paragraph below the quote!

 

[aviatorconcorde]

In my opinion, it all comes down to the Welsh economy being too interwoven with the rest of the UK. Lots of companies moving out of UK into the EU - that’s the problem wales will have.

 

[Jerry]

In my opinion, it all comes down to the Welsh economy being too interwoven with the rest of the UK. Lots of companies moving out of UK into the EU - that’s the problem wales will have.

Yet the biggest part of the Welsh economy is internal and yes we do a lot of trade with the rest of the UK but that no different to other countries around the world that are neighbours and independent countries.
Look at the Scandinavian countries and the Baltic countries they all trade with each other have commonalities and similar cultures and an intertwined history but they are all independent countries and don't feel the need to be run by the biggest one.
Another factor for Wales is how we develop our internal economy and internal infrastructure in a union that's not interested in doing that. UK government has not once come up with anything like that it only thinks of Wales as an extension of England.
What is there that Wales couldn't do as an independent country or even fully autonomous that it can in a union with England because that is essentially who Wales union is with.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Yet the biggest part of the Welsh economy is internal and yes we do a lot of trade with the rest of the UK but that no different to other countries around the world that are neighbours and independent countries.
Look at the Scandinavian countries and the Baltic countries they all trade with each other have commonalities and similar cultures and an intertwined history but they are all independent countries and don't feel the need to be run by the biggest one.
Another factor for Wales is how we develop our internal economy and internal infrastructure in a union that's not interested in doing that. UK government has not once come up with anything like that it only thinks of Wales as an extension of England.
What is there that Wales couldn't do as an independent country or even fully autonomous that it can in a union with England because that is essentially who Wales union is with.

I know one thing an Independent Wales can be, and that’s a poor Wales. Did you see the news story on the impact independence will have on the Scottish economy? It will be proportionally worse for Wales as we have a public sector dependent economy and a much lower economic output.

The same argument for not leaving the EU applies to Wales/Scotland leaving the UK but peoples ego’s seem to be getting ahead of them. My employer employs over 1k people in Wales and i’d say 800-900 of those jobs would move over to England if Wales was to leave the UK. We won’t be the only business.

As i’ve said before, the status quo with Westminster is not working and a reform of the joke house of lords and devo max for all 4 nations would practically crush the problem of Independence overnight. The UK government just need to find the balls to do it. They have to do it as there’s now no other choice.

 

[Jerry]

Did you see the news story on the impact independence will have on the Scottish economy?

I saw the article and let's say personally I'd be skeptical about the neutrality of the article. What is always apparent in arguments against independence from essentially England is that it's always stated that the likes of Scotland and Wales are too poor too small can't survive without England and this argument has been used before. The same argument was used for Malta and Singapore. Both countries seem to be doing quite well. Will post independence Scotland and Wales be paradises? No. Both will have challenges they'll have to face in their society in Wales child poverty in one but independence gives them the full tools available to meet those challenges and try to solve them.
Wales economy is quite diverse, I generally think in Wales there is a general lack of knowledge about what Wales produces and sells.
As for Wales public sector it will essentially be transferred over to the various departments that independent governments have.

My employer employs over 1k people in Wales and i’d say 800-900 of those jobs would move over to England if Wales was to leave the UK. We won’t be the only business.

I'm sure some businesses will and other's will create new jobs to replace them as they change their businesses.
Westminster won't change it's an institution incapable of radical change.
I think people need to ask if Wales and Scotland are so poor and such a burden why is England so intent on keeping them in a union with it? Why doesn't England cut both loose and use all that money they supposedly subsidise us with for their own people? To boost their NHS? To help their infrastructure grow and their economy grow?
Here is a question. Why does the UK government allow the Welsh government to have control over every port in Wales except Milford Haven?
Why is the UK government investing so much in defence in Scotland?

 

[aviatorconcorde]

I saw the article and let's say personally I'd be skeptical about the neutrality of the article. What is always apparent in arguments against independence from essentially England is that it's always stated that the likes of Scotland and Wales are too poor too small can't survive without England and this argument has been used before. The same argument was used for Malta and Singapore. Both countries seem to be doing quite well. Will post independence Scotland and Wales be paradises? No. Both will have challenges they'll have to face in their society in Wales child poverty in one but independence gives them the full tools available to meet those challenges and try to solve them.
Wales economy is quite diverse, I generally think in Wales there is a general lack of knowledge about what Wales produces and sells.
As for Wales public sector it will essentially be transferred over to the various departments that independent governments have.

I'm sure some businesses will and other's will create new jobs to replace them as they change their businesses.
Westminster won't change it's an institution incapable of radical change.
I think people need to ask if Wales and Scotland are so poor and such a burden why is England so intent on keeping them in a union with it? Why doesn't England cut both loose and use all that money they supposedly subsidise us with for their own people? To boost their NHS? To help their infrastructure grow and their economy grow?
Here is a question. Why does the UK government allow the Welsh government to have control over every port in Wales except Milford Haven?
Why is the UK government investing so much in defence in Scotland?

the article i saw was in the Guardian who usually are quite left leaning. Seems legit to me!

Singapore economic structure is completely and very different to the UK’s. It’s not even a proper democracy snd perhaps that’s why they do so well! Malta I can’t answer for as I don’t know much about them.

are Wales and Scotland a burden on England then? Just normal countries working together, just like the EU.

I’m not sure why any businesses would want to come into an independent Wales at least in the short term when they can have England right next door with more people and better skills.

better together. Stronger together. I’ve lost my rights to live in the EU and I certainly won’t be losing them to live in England, Scotland or NI.

 

[KARFA]

the article i saw was in the Guardian who usually are quite left leaning. Seems legit to me!

ah, you clearly don't understand how this works. report positive towards independence from a plaid commission is clearly fine and should just be accepted as balanced & neutral and quoted at length to support your beliefs, report from a national newspaper expressing negative views towards independence is clearly dubious and cannot be neutral

 

[Jerry]

the article i saw was in the Guardian who usually are quite left leaning. Seems legit to me!

But still unionist and a lot of these articles always seem to base their predictions of Scotlands and Wales finances and economics as part of the UK despite the fact that independence means everything will be different because being independent changes both countries fiscal powers.

are Wales and Scotland a burden on England then? Just normal countries working together, just like the EU.

No they are actually assets and as Theresa May stated England needs them. But the reality is that Wales Scotland and England aren't normal countries and the relationship is nothing like the EU because the EU is made of independent countries. I personally wish the relationship was like the EU as it would mean Wales is an independent country.

I’m not sure why any businesses would want to come into an independent Wales at least in the short term when they can have England right next door with more people and better skills.

Well that would be individual choice but the way you seem to frame that is as if England and its people are just better than Wales and the Welsh. I'm pretty sure Wales has a lot of skilled and dedicated people that business can tap into.
As for freedom of movement obviously we don't know what will happen but Ireland is in a common travel area with the UK so that could be just continued.

 

[Jerry]

ah, you clearly don't understand how this works. report positive towards independence from a plaid commission is clearly fine and should just be accepted as balanced & neutral and quoted at length to support your beliefs, report from a national newspaper expressing negative views towards independence is clearly dubious and cannot be neutral

Well as someone who reads a lot about the arguments for independence and against it there will always be bias on both sides but the research I've personally done about things like the economy and finance I find that the unionist side always tends to be extremely negative and essentially belittling to both countries. GERS and GERW are both often used as proof that neither are viable countries. Wales deficit is mentioned a lot but the fact that GERW itself states that its not a reflection of the finances of an independent Wales and that it's the finances of Wales in the UK and UK government spending on Wales behalf is never mentioned. It's never mentioned that as independent countries both would have full control of their spending and revenue raising power's and would be able to make decisions for its own economy. Wales economy when looked at is quite varied but the unionist argument never looks at that. This whole stronger together thing especially in Wales case is just not true.
In general the unionist argument tends to be that both Wales and Scotland are too small and too poor and too dependent on England and that we'd have a miserable future if we left London rule. Which isn't true because there are plenty of examples in the world that show that. 60 countries have gained independence from London yet none have asked to ruled by London again.
To me personally the message that the pro independence campaigns are putting over is that our future can be better than this and both Scots and Welsh are quite capable of running our own affairs.
The unionist argument seems to be your nothing without England. You're too poor too small and should know your place in the union. Not exactly a positive message is it!

 

[KARFA]

What do you think the negative aspects of independence would be?