Random Stuff!!

[Jerry]

Many congratulations to Wales on winning the Triple Crown today. I hadn't realised that Wales were in that position after only three rounds of the Six Nations.

After the Autumn games I think many in Wales are surprised by a Triple Crown win let alone now the possibility of a Grand Slam.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Voting attitudes and Senedd powers quizzed in poll for BBC Wales

Analysis suggests Labour in "strong position" to come first in Senedd election, in light of a poll.

www.bbc.co.uk

New data suggests more people are in favour of abolishing the Sennedd than Welsh Independence.

 

[Jerry]

Voting attitudes and Senedd powers quizzed in poll for BBC Wales

Analysis suggests Labour in "strong position" to come first in Senedd election, in light of a poll.

www.bbc.co.uk

New data suggests more people are in favour of abolishing the Sennedd than Welsh Independence.

By 1%. What is curious is that all other polls put support for independence and abolition 10% and higher than this poll. Would be interesting to see the options. What it does show is that support for abolition hasn't grown as much as support for independence.

Senedd wise it looks like another Labour/Lib Dems majority government, Plaid up to 15 seats Tories up to 13 and only 1 for UKIP and nothing for Abolish considering all the publicity they get!
Yesterday on twitter Labour MP Chris Bryant was bemoaning SNP dominance calling Scotland a one party state! He needs to look closer to home!

 

[Jerry]

Voting attitudes and Senedd powers quizzed in poll for BBC Wales

Analysis suggests Labour in "strong position" to come first in Senedd election, in light of a poll.

www.bbc.co.uk

New data suggests more people are in favour of abolishing the Sennedd than Welsh Independence.

Wales Online poll doesn't mention abolish but has support for independence steady at 26% but opposition to independence has come down to 50%.
Also has Labour lose 5 seats.
Predicts Labour 24 seats Conservatives 16 seats Plaid Cymru 14 seats Abolish 5 seats and Lib Dems 1 seat.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1366271704054591489

 

[Jerry]

Goodbye Cardiff Blues! Hello Cardiff Rugby!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1366357384403238913

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Wales Online poll doesn't mention abolish but has support for independence steady at 26% but opposition to independence has come down to 50%.
Also has Labour lose 5 seats.
Predicts Labour 24 seats Conservatives 16 seats Plaid Cymru 14 seats Abolish 5 seats and Lib Dems 1 seat.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1366271704054591489

interesting. I think it really could go either way currently - yesterday we had labour with nearly a majority.

i think with Labour down to that many seats, mark drakefords leadership would be in question.

A nice gain for the tories. The most seats they’ve ever had.

 

[Cambrian]

Drakeford may be an able and clever man, but has the charisma of a wet lettuce. Of the four leaders in the UK he is the one with the lowest profile.
He certainly would not make people want to vote for him, in the way that Johnson and Sturgeon capture peoples attention. He is probably Labours weak spot in the forthcoming election.

 

[Jerry]

interesting. I think it really could go either way currently - yesterday we had labour with nearly a majority.

i think with Labour down to that many seats, mark drakefords leadership would be in question.

A nice gain for the tories. The most seats they’ve ever had.

I suspect that the end result will be somewhere in between with Labour on 25 to 26 seats, Plaid and Tories around 14 to 15 and Abolish 3 to 4 with Lib Dems on 1. But still a long way to go!
Drakeford doesn't have charisma but he's still in charge of what is the most successful election fighting party in Europe. If they don't get a majority the negotiations will be interesting!

Interestingly as well Newport Council are going to vote on a motion to request the Welsh government to hold a referendum on the M4 relief road just for the local Newport area. Considering the cost if WG did agree I'd have thought it would be Wales wide.

Tories seek referendum on M4 relief road

Emily Gill, local democracy reporter Newport council will decide on Wednesday whether to call on the Welsh Government to hold a referendum on the M4 relief road. The motion put forward by Newport’s Conservative group, wants the Welsh Government to reconsider the decision to scrap the £1.3...

nation.cymru

And Wales has a new Wales only newspaper called the National Wales.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

That’s actually a really good idea.

 

[Nigel B]

Charisma is not the top priority, as long as the covid crisis is dealt with in a safe and secure outcome is what counts in the end.
R T Davies, Easiest thing in the world is to critisize..

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Drakeford may be an able and clever man, but has the charisma of a wet lettuce. Of the four leaders in the UK he is the one with the lowest profile.
He certainly would not make people want to vote for him, in the way that Johnson and Sturgeon capture peoples attention. He is probably Labours weak spot in the forthcoming election.

Carwyn Jones certainly acted and looked like a leader of a country. He certainly had statespersonship about him, as Nicola strugeon has for example. Mark, not so much. I’m sure he’s a capable and clever man but you also need to get people engaged and motivated. Mark Drakeford does not do that.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Carwyn Jones certainly acted and looked like a leader of a country. He certainly had statespersonship about him, as Nicola strugeon has for example. Mark, not so much. I’m sure he’s a capable and clever man but you also need to get people engaged and motivated. Mark Drakeford does not do that.

It's a fact that I'm looking in from outside the country but I was never impressed with Carwyn Jones' public persona. When it came to his utterances on CWL some of them were nonsensical. Examples have been given in this forum in the past so unless anyone wants me to I won't waste everyone's time by repeating them.

Nicola Sturgeon is certainly revelling in the UK-wide exposure she gets daily with her lunchtime tv virus briefings but she doesn't impress me one bit with her general demeanour.

I didn't agree with all her actions or policies by any means but I believe the greatest peacetime UK PM in my lifetime was Margaret Thatcher (Churchill, a magnificent wartime leader despite his undoubted foibles, was a shadow of himself beset with ill health when he was PM from 1951 to 1955 and I was only a young kid then anyway). Sturgeon is certainly not in her class.

I have no party political allegiance or leaning and I tend to vote on issues and how I perceive candidates' views on them.

Although charisma is for some reason deemed to be important for political leaders I'm always conscious of Plato's comment that the empty vessel makes the loudest sound. Not always of course but often enough for the assertion to have substance.

 

[Jerry]

"Just under 40% of Welsh people polled who expressed an opinion said they would vote for independence"
It's actually 39% but I guess 40 sounds better and it was previously polling at 32%.

Westminster warned as poll shows record backing for Welsh independence

Survey for ITV News Tonight reported ‘dramatic uplift’ with 40% backing independence and most support amongst young people

amp.theguardian.com

 

[aviatorconcorde]

"Just under 40% of Welsh people polled who expressed an opinion said they would vote for independence"
It's actually 39% but I guess 40 sounds better and it was previously polling at 32%.

Westminster warned as poll shows record backing for Welsh independence

Survey for ITV News Tonight reported ‘dramatic uplift’ with 40% backing independence and most support amongst young people

amp.theguardian.com

You don’t mention that going by this poll, opposition to independence is at its highest since December 2018.

why is that you ask, because don’t no’s are excluded.

i accept welsh independence support has been significantly higher recently, but this poll is nonsense.

 

[Jerry]

You don’t mention that going by this poll, opposition to independence is at its highest since December 2018.

why is that you ask, because don’t no’s are excluded.

i accept welsh independence support has been significantly higher recently, but this poll is nonsense.

Yes the don't knows are taken out from what I've seen that's pretty standard and also ITV seem happy to that as it's a poll for there programme.

Tonight - UK: The End of the Union? Tonight

Series 23 - Episode 9 - Is the United Kingdom on the brink of a break-up? Julie Etchingham investigates.

www.itv.com

You can dismiss it as nonense but the trend in general on these polls is that it's growing and remember the question for this would've been something like would you vote for an independent Wales. More like the question would be on any referendum.
I suspect with don't knows added the Yes is about 30% but ITV have only published the vote with the don't knows taken away.
Pretty strong stuff from the First Minister.

Welsh First Minister says that the United Kingdom 'is over'

The United Kingdom 'is over' and a new union should be crafted to reflect a 'voluntary association of four nations', Wales’ First Minister has said

www.irishexaminer.com

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Yes the don't knows are taken out from what I've seen that's pretty standard and also ITV seem happy to that as it's a poll for there programme.

Tonight - UK: The End of the Union? Tonight

Series 23 - Episode 9 - Is the United Kingdom on the brink of a break-up? Julie Etchingham investigates.

www.itv.com

You can dismiss it as nonense but the trend in general on these polls is that it's growing and remember the question for this would've been something like would you vote for an independent Wales. More like the question would be on any referendum.
I suspect with don't knows added the Yes is about 30% but ITV have only published the vote with the don't knows taken away.
Pretty strong stuff from the First Minister.

Welsh First Minister says that the United Kingdom 'is over'

The United Kingdom 'is over' and a new union should be crafted to reflect a 'voluntary association of four nations', Wales’ First Minister has said

www.irishexaminer.com

If you’re going to push that 40% figure i’m going to push the 60% remain figure which is the highest it’s been since december 2018.

and i’m not disagreeing with the FM, i’ve wanted a federal UK for a while.

 

[Jerry]

If you’re going to push that 40% figure i’m going to push the 60% remain figure which is the highest it’s been since december 2018.

and i’m not disagreeing with the FM, i’ve wanted a federal UK for a while.

Surely the figure is the lowest its been as the number saying Yes goes up the numbers for No goes down and I don't remember Yes ever polling so high.
It was interesting listening to the FM talking about the UK and a Tory MP calling him a radical and he mentioned countries like Canada and the USA and the EU was mentioned as a potential template for future relationship. Yet he's not proposed what a future relationship would look like and certainly not how it would be achieved. Plaid offer a referendum on independence yet so far Labour haven't offered one on Home Rule.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

and i’m not disagreeing with the FM, i’ve wanted a federal UK for a while

In principle I agree but the problem would be England. A devolved English government would be seen by Westminster and probably by the other devolved governments as too powerful.

Devolving more power to English regions that fell short of a devolved English government would not result in a true federal system. If the English regions were each given an identical set-up (first minister, cabinet, tax-raising, law-making powers etc) as the devolved governments that would in effect result in a number of separate states across England which would bring its own problems.

If Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland were given full 'federal' powers - ie everything except such things as Foreign Relations and Defence - but England was left under the control of the UK government that would perpetuate the numerous anomalies that have been highlighted in this thread and elsewhere in the past.

My guess is that the Johnson government, in an attempt to defuse the growing independence calls in Wales and Scotland, and the increasing voice in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland, will offer more powers to the devolved governments and devolve more powers and responsibilities to the major areas in provincial England such as the so-called Northern Powerhouse, although less than those offered to the devolved governments.

Peripheral areas of England such as the South West and East Anglia would still be likely to have to rely on the UK government for much of their governance.

So in my view a true federal UK is unlikely.

 

[Jerry]

So in my view a true federal UK is unlikely.

Full autonomy is more likely. Essentially independence in all but name.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Full autonomy is more likely. Essentially independence in all but name.

With Wales having responsibility for its Foreign Affairs and Defence? With no representation at Westminster?