Random Stuff!!

[KARFA]

That's not quite true, it was 38% with the don't knows taken away and i believe the latest was 29% with the don't knows taken away. Yes it's dropped but it's still higher than it used to be. Overall support has gone up, and i'd have to disagree about it being a fantasy argument.

It very much is true. Survey done 25 Feb – 1 March 2022.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ej0sztvk69/Results_BarnCymru_FebMarch2022_W.pdf

If there was a referendum tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country?

Yes 21%
No 53%
Would not vote 8%
Don't know 16%
Refused 2%

Definitely disagree there, independence is about hope for a better future not about division and hate and is nothing like Brexit as it looks to a positive future for Wales and not looking back to the 1950s.

As opposed to looking back to the 1050s?

 

[Jerry]

It very much is true. Survey done 25 Feb – 1 March 2022.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ej0sztvk69/Results_BarnCymru_FebMarch2022_W.pdf

If there was a referendum tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country?

Yes 21%
No 53%
Would not vote 8%
Don't know 16%
Refused 2%



As opposed to looking back to the 1050s?

Yes that's the most recent poll and i believe if you take away the don't knows it's around 29%
And no Wales wouldn't be going back to the 1050's especially as that time was a very violent time, maybe you can't understand because you're an ardent unionist but wanting an independent Wales for me and many others is about having a better future for the people of Wales. I and other supporters of independence don't believe we can have that future as part of the UK.

 

[KARFA]

Yes that's the most recent poll and i believe if you take away the don't knows it's around 29%

Errr, that's not how it works. Although if you really want to massage your figure I believe if you take out the "No"s you get an even higher percentage in favour of independence

(btw if you just discard the 16% "don't knows" that would get you to yes being 25% of what is left, and if you further discard the "would not vote" you get to 27.6%. Of course whilst you may be able to argue the "would not vote" won't actually vote, you can't really assume the "don't knows" won't or would all vote yes. If you ignore the "would not vote" and split the "don't knows" evenly between no and yes then you can get to 30% yes, but also you now get to 67% no, so that doesn't really help you very much.)

 

[Jerry]

Errr, that's not how it works.

Ok then.

 

[KARFA]

And no Wales wouldn't be going back to the 1050's especially as that time was a very violent time, maybe you can't understand because you're an ardent unionist but wanting an independent Wales for me and many others is about having a better future for the people of Wales. I and other supporters of independence don't believe we can have that future as part of the UK.

Well tbf I think I am probably less ardent a unionist then you are an ardent Welsh nationalist. I certainly think one of us is more blinded by our own beliefs than the other

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Support for independence dropped to just 14% when more powers for the Senedd were offered as a choice in the poll. 15% supported abolishing the Senedd entirely. 35% supported more powers for the Senedd without independence.

Independence is a fringe view held mainly by the people of ceredigion and gwynedd, just like abolishing the assembly is.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Well tbf I think I am probably less ardent a unionist then you are an ardent Welsh nationalist. I certainly think one of us is more blinded by our own beliefs than the other

Welsh independence supporters rely on a lot of fake news and anti english hatred to fuel their campaign. You only need to read a few headlines on nation cymru blog to determine that.

Many people in my country are proudly Welsh and more than content with the standard living they have, as well as pooling their sovereignty with 4 other nations. If it’s not broken, don’t fix it.

 

[Jerry]

Welsh independence supporters rely on a lot of fake news and anti english hatred to fuel their campaign.

Don't mistake anti Westminster and anti-tory sentiment for anti English sentiment.

Many people in my country are proudly Welsh and more than content with the standard living they have, as well as pooling their sovereignty with 4 other nations. If it’s not broken, don’t fix it.

Many many people are not happy with their standard of living and live in abject poverty in Wales just because you're happy with you're standard of living don't assume that others are, that they don't want a better life. As for sovereignty we don't pool it as that would suggest we have a choice in what powers the Welsh government has. It doesn't, those powers are devolved and the ones we get are decided by Westminster. If Wales was voluntary pooling sovereignty the Welsh government wouldn't have to ask for powers and the UK government wouldn't have been able to pass things like Brexit etc.
The UK is a deeply flawed state and a deeply flawed arrangement for modern countries in the 21st century, it's a relic from the 19th century and more and more people are seeing that it is definitely broken. You only have to look at the news to see that.

Just on another note, interesting article here about the state of Welsh politics.

Theo Davies-Lewis: 'The realignment of Welsh politics is now complete'

Local election campaign reflects how each party is now beyond drastic change

www.thenational.wales

 

[KARFA]

... and the UK government wouldn't have been able to pass things like Brexit etc.

There was a majority for brexit in Wales, or is that another referendum you are teeing up after independence to get Wales back in to the EU?

 

[Jerry]

There was a majority for brexit in Wales, or is that another referendum you are teeing up after independence to get Wales back in to the EU?

There wasn't in Scotland though and the Welsh government put forward a plan to keep the UK in EFTA so it still had access to the single market etc, things which were ignored, if as aviator believed sovereignty was pooled then the UK government wouldn't have been able to that and no i'm not a supporter of Wales joining the EU not in the short to mid term.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Don't mistake anti Westminster and anti-tory sentiment for anti English sentiment.

Many many people are not happy with their standard of living and live in abject poverty in Wales just because you're happy with you're standard of living don't assume that others are, that they don't want a better life. As for sovereignty we don't pool it as that would suggest we have a choice in what powers the Welsh government has. It doesn't, those powers are devolved and the ones we get are decided by Westminster. If Wales was voluntary pooling sovereignty the Welsh government wouldn't have to ask for powers and the UK government wouldn't have been able to pass things like Brexit etc.
The UK is a deeply flawed state and a deeply flawed arrangement for modern countries in the 21st century, it's a relic from the 19th century and more and more people are seeing that it is definitely broken. You only have to look at the news to see that.

Just on another note, interesting article here about the state of Welsh politics.

Theo Davies-Lewis: 'The realignment of Welsh politics is now complete'

Local election campaign reflects how each party is now beyond drastic change

www.thenational.wales

I disagree. I see a lot of anti english hate around “they swung the brexit vote” or “look at all these english tourists” - don’t think that’s really in relation to Westminster or Tories.

The 782,000 people who voted for Unionist manifestos in the last Assembly election and the 1.1 million people who voted for unionist manifestos in the UK election before would suggest Wales is very happy with the status quo.

I wouldn’t disagree with you saying the UK has flaws, but so did the EU and look what a disaster that situation turned out to be.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

There wasn't in Scotland though and the Welsh government put forward a plan to keep the UK in EFTA so it still had access to the single market etc, things which were ignored, if as aviator believed sovereignty was pooled then the UK government wouldn't have been able to that and no i'm not a supporter of Wales joining the EU not in the short to mid term.

So you know i’m not 100% biased towards the UK, I do think for brexit all 4 countries should have had to consent to it in the referendum.

 

[KARFA]

Many many people are not happy with their standard of living and live in abject poverty in Wales just because you're happy with you're standard of living don't assume that others are, that they don't want a better life.

What would an independent Wales be able to do to tackle poverty that the current Welsh Executive is unable to do?

 

[Jerry]

I disagree. I see a lot of anti english hate around “they swung the brexit vote”

I believe this is in relation to this article from post Brexit research

English people living in Wales tilted it towards Brexit, research finds

Areas of Wales with big English communities had larger leave vote in 2016, according to study

www.theguardian.com

or “look at all these english tourists”

There are genuine concerns about the impact of tourism especially holiday homes on local communities in big parts of Wales, are people not allowed to raise concerns because most of those tourists and home owners are English?

The 782,000 people who voted for Unionist manifestos in the last Assembly election and the 1.1 million people who voted for unionist manifestos in the UK election before would suggest Wales is very happy with the status quo

So nothing can change then and people like me can't want a better world? We're just to accept the status quo and give up any hope of anything changing?

 

[KARFA]

So nothing can change then and people like me can't want a better world? We're just to accept the status quo and give up any hope of anything changing?

No, it is just that you have linked your belief in a better world firmly to independence for Wales, as if one can't be achieved without the other.

It is certainly not guaranteed that Wales would be better off if independent, and in fact there are some reasonable arguments Wales could be worse off and the poverty you care about so much could be worse.

Let me ask, if there was a risk that poverty would be worse would you vote to remain in the UK if there was a referendum?

 

[Jerry]

What would an independent Wales be able to do to tackle poverty that the current Welsh Executive is unable to do?

Well for a start it would have full fiscal control as it can't borrow, create bonds or QE as it doesn't have a central bank. It doesn't control welfare or pensions so the social policies it can bring in are limited at the moment. Being an independent country would give the Welsh government full control rather than being an over powered council.

 

[KARFA]

Because borrowing more and printing funny money really helps the poor? It is precisely this over the last which has had a large part in create the inflation we are now suffering from and which is hitting the poorest the hardest.

 

[Jerry]

Let me ask, if there was a risk that poverty would be worse would you vote to remain in the UK if there was a referendum?

I would vote for an independent Wales, because i don't see poverty getting better in the UK, in fact i think for many it's going to get a lot worse. I think independence gives Wales the ability to get people out of it.

 

[Jerry]

Because borrowing more and printing funny money really helps the poor? It is precisely this over the last which has had a large part in create the inflation we are now suffering from and which is hitting the poorest the hardest.

It's about having the levers that an independent country has, borrowing, printing money etc is just part of the tools that governments have. In the end it's up to them to make the decisions to make people's lives better. Wales government doesn't have that while say Ireland's and Finland's governments do.

 

[KARFA]

I would vote for an independent Wales, because i don't see poverty getting better in the UK, in fact i think for many it's going to get a lot worse. I think independence gives Wales the ability to get people out of it.

Thank you for your honesty.

So actually the concern for poverty is a bit of a red herring since regardless of what any economic assessments say about the impact of indepdence generally on Wales and specifically on the poor, you would vote for independence. Now that's fine, and many people voted for brexit on the same basis knowing that they may be worse off but that other considerations such as sovereignty and taking back control took precedence.