Fly BMI

[alphagolf]

BMI have announced today that they are suspending their Southampton to Munich service.

Link to BBC news article reference bmi regional SOU-MUC states recruitment and training issues. Reducing flying schedule to limit delays and cancellations.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-hampshire-44202564

 

[superking]

Link to BBC news article reference bmi regional SOU-MUC states recruitment and training issues. Reducing flying schedule to limit delays and cancellations.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-hampshire-44202564

The SOU-MUC flights have been pulled altogether.
This has been reported on dried plum.

 

[Jerry]

What will BMI do considering Brexit? Isn't Munich their biggest base?

 

[superking]

II don't know what they will do,as it looks like on a downward spiral. I hope not as a good airline well till all the problems they are having. I did read some where they were looking for other aircraft to increase fleet.Only time will tell what is happening or not. Only BMIR know that.

 

[kraktoa]

As recently as April they had an advert on their website for cabin crew. Some people i know had applied, but havent heard back from the airline. Many Monarch crew were keen after their Manchester based airline closed.

At the same time, staff turn over is very high with BMIr as they are mainly a single crew for most of their BRS flights. Rosters are highly flexible so add all the cancellations and poor crew dont know if they will be home at any time. Domestic arrangements for them must be highly stressful.
The airline seems to be sadly on a downward spiral for the past 18 months. Talk of new aircraft seems fanciful for now.

 

[Jerry]

Being the only cabin crew on a 45 seater on mostly 1 hour long flights and possibly under on a full service airline must be pretty pressurised. At least with other regional airlines over 50 seats there is 2 of you to share the workload with and talk to.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

bmi regional have continued to cancel flights from BRS, with eight rotations cancelled in the past three days which has led to understandable comment - further comment actually as the subject is one that continually recurs - in the BRS Weather & Technical Diversions, Delays & Cancellation thread.

Being half term, the loads on these 'business' flights were possibly quite light of course, so maybe not viable in the current climate of higher fuel prices.

However, I wonder whether the recent BM/AF codeshare announcement, albeit for domestic French routes only, is indicative that BM have fallen out with LH, and these cancellations are a further symptom of that situation.

I guess from a LH/SN perspective the question has to be at what point does it become more cost-effective to run their own services, or change to another codeshare partner. However, with Brexit on the horizon maybe LH group are planning to let the service wind down of its own accord? After all, BRS is a very small dot on the LH landscape and any reputational damage etc. is unlikely to have much impact in the wider scheme of things.

The advantage of the ER3s/4s is that they are relatively small, therefore suited to multiple daily frequencies, which provides some contingency in the case of a cancellation (for whatever reason), unlike a 2-weekly or 3-weekly service where one cancellation can seriously screw up travel plans. This is still a major reason why business travellers in particular gravitate to LHR, so were BM to fold it would probably be a greater impact to BRS than to LH group.

That said, KL can achieve multiple daily frequencies (at presumably good LFs) with larger Embraers, so it can be done, and presumably KL would be the main beneficiaries if BM disappeared.

I don’t know whether Lufthansa would be too bothered about bmi regional’s link-up with Air France as it only seems to include regional connections in France from Paris CDG, something unlikely to impact negatively on LH.

When LH used Eurowings to operate BRS-FRA in 2008-2009 it was reported by the airline that every Lufthansa long haul destination from FRA had been used by BRS-originating passengers within the first six months. The Eurowings Bae 146-300 aircraft might have been too large, especially as the first summer operated 3 x daily every day of the week, including weekends. Loads averaged out at 50-60 throughout the year of operation that in total handled just under 100,000 passengers (the frequency had been reduced in the winter).

One morning in April 2009 a senior figure at BRS received an unexpected early morning phone call from the LH UK chief saying the route would be pulled very shortly. The recession was biting severely and LH said they were looking to preserve the established LHR and BHX routes but that they would be back at BRS when economic conditions improved. LH were in the process of starting a bmi regional BRS-FRA service a couple of years or so after they pulled out but then sold the airline. Once the independently-owned bmi regional established themselves LH came in with code share to FRA and MUC.

I agree that the small Embraers are well suited to multiple frequencies on routes such as BRS-FRA or BRS-MUC. Even a single daily rotation with a larger aircraft would not be as attractive to passengers, whether point to point or hub transfers. The loss of such routes would be of minimal importance to Lufthansa, but there is a proven market and if they pulled out of the code share they could lose some of the passengers to AF/KLM through AMS.

Speaking of KLM, their recent press release saying they carried 260,000 passengers on the BRS-AMS route last year (easyJet must have carried 150,000 then) means that the KLM service averaged a 90% load factor. That was based on all flights operating and on E190s. Given that the route suffered a number of cancellations and E170s occasionally deputised as well, the load factor for the year was probably over 90%. We know that load factors don’t tell the whole story of a successful (or otherwise) route but it’s an indicator of a market.

If bmi regional is having trouble sourcing crews and aircraft why do they not cut some of the routes or frequencies instead of increasing them (eg Paris CDG and the new one this year to Gothenburg)?

If they could get their act together they would be perfect for BRS, even with their relatively high fares which the local market seems able to absorb.

The very point I've made before is that should bmi disappear I highly doubt the likes of bru, Frankfurt Munich Düsseldorf and Hamburg would return in any other guise. That would be a greater blow than the loss of bmi itself

Finding a replacement carrier for these routes would not be easy (oh dear, that’s probably true in more senses than one) and some might disappear completely - in fact, some almost certainly would. Looking at them individually throws up one or two surprises when looking at passenger numbers.

Brussels. Operated for around 30 years by Sabena and its successors, with bmi regional no longer flying on behalf Brussels Airlines. Since 2008 the route has seen an almost constant rise in its passenger numbers with, from 2008 in 000s, these annual figures: 36, 31, 38, 43, 42, 49, 52, 57, 56 and over 60,000 in 2017.

However, 2018 has seen a significant decline with loads down over 16% for the first three months of the year compared to the same period in 2017.

Dusseldorf. Was being built up as a new route by BAConnect when Flybe bought that airline in 2007 and axed the BRS base.

In 2017 Dusseldorf handled 16,196 passengers, up 10% on 2016. 2018 is a different story. January actually saw a 14% increase in passenger numbers but February and March were down by 14% and 42% respectively. Clearly the cancellations played a part, including those brought about by the snow, but I can’t help thinking that Ryanair’s 4 x weekly Cologne service that began last winter is having a negative effect.

Hamburg. easyJet tried this in 2005-206 but although loads were not a complete disaster (usually at least 100) they were not good enough for easyJet’s yield. OLT also flew Hamburg until 2009. It was mainly an in-house airline for Airbus and had been switched from Filton a few years beforehand to open it up to the general public as well.

In 2017 Hamburg handled 15,483 passengers, up 13% on 2016. Like Dusseldorf, 2018 is a different story with monthly passenger numbers down respectively 17%, 31% and 17% between January and March.

Hamburg does benefit from the Airbus and Imperial Tobacco connections at both ends, but to what degree I have no idea.

Munich. BA franchise operated MUC for many years but it came to a halt in 2007 when Flybe closed the former BACon base at BRS. In 2017 MUC carried 42,482 passengers, up 17% on 2016, a continuation of the annual double digit percentage passenger number increases since bmi regional commenced the route in 2013. 2018 has continued the trend with passenger number increases of respectively 42%, 23% and 26% in the months January to March.

Frankfurt. As with MUC the BA franchise operated FRA until Flybe closed the former BACon base at BRS in 2007. I mentioned earlier Lufthansa’s (Eurowings) initiative in 2008-2009. In 2017 FRA carried 49,342 passengers, up 14% on 2016, which is a threefold increase in passenger numbers since bmi regional began the route in 2013. Again as with MUC, 2018 has seen a continuation of this trend with passenger number increases of respectively 19%, 18% and 6% in the months January to March.

An interesting sidelight is that in March this year BRS-FRA carried 4,001 passengers and BRS-MUC 4,028 passengers, despite the latter having fewer scheduled weekly flights. I think this is the first month that MUC has carried more passengers than FRA, despite the latter still being 6% up on March 2017.

Milan Malpensa. This route used to benefit from its Leonardo Helicopters connection (formerly Augusta Westland). I don’t know that it still does given bmi regionals’s tinkering with the schedules. easyJet operated MXP until 2010 before giving best to Ryanair’s ‘Milan’ Bergamo which still operates, although at reduced 3 x weekly (it used to be daily against easyJet’s daily MXP).

bmi regional has never seemed to know what to do with this route. In 2013 when it began it carried 10,000 passengers since when annual numbers have been 16,000, 8,000, 6,000 and just under 10,000 in 2017 as frequencies have been upped, then decreased.

The first three months of 2018 are marginally up but we are talking only of 500-600 passengers a month. The summer will be down significantly given the substantial reduction in frequency compared with last year. I still find it strange that easyJet hasn’t returned to this route.

Aberdeen. Operated for many years by the BA franchise until the Flybe closure of the BRS BACon base in 2007, whereupon Eastern took over the route until 2013 when bmi regional began their service. In 2013 nearly 35,000 passengers used the route but this had dwindled to half that by 2017 as frequencies were cut, partly because of the oil industry cutbacks in Scotland. 2018 continues the trend with monthly passenger numbers down respectively 10%, 31% and 37% in the period January-March.

Paris CDG. Can’t ascertain bmi regional’s performance because it competes with easyJet but the fact that frequency has been increased to 3 x daily on some days of the week might suggest it’s doing all right.

Gothenburg. Began in January this year. Seems to be averaging around 20 passengers per flight on its 2 x weekly schedule. This might be satisfactory for bmi regional with its fare structure. I’m not sure of the route's purpose. I thought it was initially a revenue-earning positioning flight to/from Sweden.

bmi regional’s other route, in its early days at BRS, was Hannover (ironically one of Bristol’s twin cities) but that lasted for just a year.

The above suggests on passenger figures alone (always with the caveat that they don’t necessarily correspond with yields) that some routes are doing quite well, others possibly ok and still others having a large question mark over them.

 

[Kernow Bravo]

Agreed that this discussion pertaining to bmi is best addressed in this forum rather than delays/cancellations.

Interesting load factor stats.

For those of us on the outside, it seems quite difficult to understand exactly what the BM strategy is vis-a-vis BRS, 'corporate shuttles' notwithstanding (although the MXP route may challenge that perspective now as well).

The AF codeshare, for example, seems like a very scaled-down initiative given the restriction to French domestic connections, but presumably the anticipated transfer traffic is what justified the 3x daily frequency to CDG. As you say this restriction may have been to avoid incurring the wrath of LH, but why then do it at all when so many regional French destinations are covered by direct flights ex BRS, other than perhaps to improve frequencies?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Agreed that this discussion pertaining to bmi is best addressed in this forum rather than delays/cancellations.

Interesting load factor stats.

For those of us on the outside, it seems quite difficult to understand exactly what the BM strategy is vis-a-vis BRS, 'corporate shuttles' notwithstanding (although the MXP route may challenge that perspective now as well).

The AF codeshare, for example, seems like a very scaled-down initiative given the restriction to French domestic connections, but presumably the anticipated transfer traffic is what justified the 3x daily frequency to CDG. As you say this restriction may have been to avoid incurring the wrath of LH, but why then do it at all when so many regional French destinations are covered by direct flights ex BRS, other than perhaps to improve frequencies?

It seems that this airline views BRS as two types of market, albeit both primarily business orientated.

The first is as a feeder into hubs at FRA and MUC, and now CDG to a very limited extent, as well as BRU although flying under its own banner instead of that of Brussels Airlines appears to have impacted negatively on passenger numbers on that route so far this year; the second is as a point to point airline on thin routes, some of which permit a combination of point to point and hub at increased daily frequencies through code sharing.

There is no doubt that the LH code shares have markedly increased passenger numbers on FRA and MUC and continue to do so. What proportion are hub transfers and how much bmi regional takes from LH (as the undoubted senior partner in this it holds the whip hand) would be an interesting question, one to which we shall never know the answer.

BRS was the obvious choice for a significant operation in the regions and has the company's largest network in the UK. The larger airports at MAN and BHX already have connections to bmi regional's BRS destinations and airports smaller than BRS probably don't have the type of catchment, or in some cases a large enough catchment, able to sustain the necessarily high fares that bmi regional usually charges.

Since bmi regional left the Lufthansa stable in 2013 its annual load factors have been:
2013 49.1%
2014 53.7%
2015 54.6%
2016 54.1%

To get an acceptable yield out of that means fares can't be give-aways.

In 2013 the airline carried 448,000 passengers across its network; in 2014 407,000; in 2015 413,000; in 2016 415,000, so its not growing its passenger numbers.

Looking at this century as a whole when Lufthansa had a minority share in the airline until 2009 when it purchased it outright, the load factors between 2000 and 2012 were in the band 56.9%-62%: higher than the current owners are producing but not outstandingly so.

It's difficult to see then where bmi regional would go in the UK if it closed or seriously reduced its BRS base. It might have an eye on Brexit with a view to concentrating more on mainland Europe but Brexit is still an unknown quantity, even it seems to those involved in negotations at government level.

 

[Kernow Bravo]

The first is as a feeder into hubs at FRA and MUC, and now CDG to a very limited extent, as well as BRU although flying under its own banner instead of that of Brussels Airlines appears to have impacted negatively on passenger numbers on that route so far this year

Perhaps the load factors since SN codeshared on the BM flights (rather than v-v) are indicative of the proportion of transfer traffic vs O&D on that route, as presumably SN will have fewer seats to sell on those flights where they codeshare.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

The important thing to remember is BM are the perfect size for a business Airline that is aiming to offer frequency over fares. The LH codeshares do offer a fair amount of connecting traffic on the overall figures on these flights. The SN setup is probably now more beneficial to BM than the previous setup, but SN still gains some share. As for AF it was only a matter of time and makes complete sense to offer connections without AF using their own metal. Being linked with KL you would think AF had access to some data and given the popularity of KLs flights might not actually dilute KLs load factors but actually release those travelling to regional France from AMS to CDG thus creating more available seats to other KL destonations. As a KL/AF group, getting more market share.
Many travellers will actually pick full service Airlines in order to utilise the flying card benefits.
I really can't see BM pulling out of BRS. They have a niche setup that includes codeshares flying into major hubs. The only other UK airline that could bridge the gap would be Flybe, but that is highly unlikely given the setup over at CWL.
They do seriously need to up their game across their entire network. Recent years haven't been great but I think they managed to mask it with decent performance with occasional disruption which has gradually deteriorated to regular disruption with occasional reliable performance.
The question is, do they retreat slightly on some routes in order to allow some slack in the schedule? Carry on and have a better contingency for sub chartering in disruption? Or continue on what appears to be a downward spiral and have little contingency for crewing and aircraft issues and continue to P* off regular travellers that rely on reliable operations?

 

[kraktoa]

They do appear to have some contingencies. Passengers are usually flown/coached into London and then onwards by taxi (home) or flown to their destinations. The bags usually end up all over the place. A friends bag did not reach in time for the meeting and the airline shelled out £200 for a suit.

All this must cost a huge amount throwing their yields into the red.

 

[superking]

Perhaps BMIR are making way for a Jet 2 base.

 

[andrewgreen]

Perhaps BMIR are making way for a Jet 2 base.

Ha ha ... here we go again !

 

[superking]

Must get the humour going now and again. Good roumer thou.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

They do appear to have some contingencies. Passengers are usually flown/coached into London and then onwards by taxi (home) or flown to their destinations. The bags usually end up all over the place. A friends bag did not reach in time for the meeting and the airline shelled out £200 for a suit.

All this must cost a huge amount throwing their yields into the red.

I wouldn't class that as a pre-arranged contingency. I'd class it as a fortunate backup, bailed out by partners.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

bmi regional has cancelled two more rotations this evening that I've just posted in the BRS
Weather, Diversions etc thread.

So far this week 13 rotations have been cancelled since Sunday:
3 Frankfurt
3 Dusseldorf
2 Brussels
2 Hamburg
1 Munich
1 Milan Malpensa
1 Paris CDG

Anyone want to open a book as to how many will be cancelled tomorrow? This is beyond ridiculous, especially when DUS and HAM are single daily rotations. They might as well axe these routes now. At least passengers would know where they stood. I would not touch them with a barge pole in their present state. Fortunately I don't have to. They must be losing regular customers who do fly with them.

I'm surprised the CAA has no responsibiltiy to take action over something like this. This airline just cancels flights day after day with seemingly no regulatory action taken against them. Perhaps there is nothing that can be done.

 

[forest1979]

It really is shocking, terrible for passangers and not great for the airport. If there is good feeder traffic why would LH not take up the German routes as an example if BMI were to leave bristol? They have the equipment and sub airlines.. who would book with them currently.. i for sure wouldnt

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It really is shocking, terrible for passangers and not great for the airport. If there is good feeder traffic why would LH not take up the German routes as an example if BMI were to leave bristol? They have the equipment and sub airlines.. who would book with them currently.. i for sure wouldnt

The first problem is likely to be the size of aircraft. Neither Lufthansa itself nor Eurowings appear to have anything smaller than an A319. Given that for a FRA or MUC route to be useful it would have to be at least 2 x daily, ideally 3 x daily, that would be too much for a 319 in my view.

Looking at MAN and BHX, although they have a Eurowings presence, their FRA routes are operated by Lufthansa. Eurowings doesn't operate into FRA at all, although it does have a good spread of destinations at MUC.

I have a vague notion that a few years ago Lufthansa said they would not use Eurowings for feeder flights into FRA and MUC as they didn't like the idea of their premium passengers using a LCC to reach long haul. If this was the case, and especially if it still is, the Eurowings MUC flights must be point to point only.

It does seem odd that if they won't use Eurowings for long haul feeders they are happy to use bmi regional with their tiny aircraft. Perhaps bmir not being a LCC gets them through the door.

 

[Kernow Bravo]

Neither Lufthansa itself nor Eurowings appear to have anything smaller than an A319

According to https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/company/fleet/lufthansa-and-regional-partners.html they have CR900s, E190s and E195s, not to mention Air Dolomiti's large Embraers (with whom BM also has a codeshare).

Agree that these are all substantially greater capacity than the BM ER4s, but they are broadly the same size as KL operates to BRS. SN also have Q400s in their fleet, albeit they have retired their 4-engined regional jets. Of course, understanding how these aircraft are currently used may preclude their deployment on routes ex BRS. SN would also qualify as a LCC (unless operated by BM!), which may preclude use of their aircraft to connect at MUC/FRA, but it's all LH group.

Pricing of LH connections tends to be uncompetitive relative to KL and SN in my experience. Perhaps with larger aircraft operating to/from BRS they could secure a greater share of the market by pricing realistically to attract non-business customers.