CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Aviador]

That's not bad all considered especially with the economy still bouncing on the brink of another recession.

 

[muddycoffee]

That's not bad all considered especially with the economy still bouncing on the brink of another recession.

In my circle of family and friends, there are two distinct stories.

1) Those who are on fixed incomes with plenty to spend like my parents with a generous pension that go on holiday several times each year (although not flyers), people on good incomes who spend all their surplus jetting off to the sun, people who insist that they HAVE to have a foreign family holiday each year even if they go heavily into debt because of it.

2) and people like me who are really feeling the pinch unable to afford a foreign holiday probably for a year or two, but would dearly like to.

Because of the people in (1) I believe there will always be a baseline of flights required, no matter what the economy is like, however only when things improve and the people in (2) get their finances straight will noticeable and dramatic increases happen.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

There is a lot of truth in what you are saying, muddy coffee.

There is a large band of mainly older people who have the means, time and will to travel which in part explains the success of some regional airports versus others of broadly similar standing.

Some catchments are full of relatively well-off leisure travellers whilst other airport catchments, though roughly similar in size, contain a lot of people where jobs, certainly well-paid jobs, are scarcer as well as being home to many fewer affluent holiday flyers.

Throw in a decent business market as well and and the 'richer' leisure catchment airports are much better placed to ride the recession and progress.

How would you describe the make-up DSA's core catchment?

 

[Aviador]

I would say the core catchment area for DSA isn't as well off as the core catchement areas of cities like Bristol or Leeds. Sheffield, which is of course the nearest major city to the airport, used to be a major steel producer. The major employment for other towns surrounding DSA used to be coal mining. Needless to say both the city of Sheffield and it's surrounding towns have had to make huge changes to survive since the demise of both the steel and coal mine industries. So to summaries, I'd say the core catchment for the airport are mostly working class people who generally speaking have very little disposable income.

 

[pug]

South Yorkshire qualified for EU Objective One funding due to the relative poverty in the region. Im not sure how much of an impact this had on the Doncaster area but I would assume it can have only been positive. You do get a better picture of places like Doncaster in the Government league tables, as when the Metropolitan Borough Council was formed they basicall drew a large circle taking in more affluent towns on the periphery thereby the population is larger than that of Hull and Nottingham.

Sorry to go off on a tangent but some members may find this interesting. Hulls' boundaries are tightly drawn, therefore only the true inner city urban areas are included in the statistics. This is the reason why Hull is constantly bottom of all league tables (and why it gets such a bad press often). In reality, including the more affluent suburbs, Hull is slightly more prosperous than Leeds, this is the reason Hull failed to secure Objective One funding itself, a fact that seems to be ignored by Hull bashers! In fact, the EU recognise 'Larger Urban Zones' as opposed to tightly drawn local authority boundaries, which seem to paint a far more realistic picture...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larger_Urban_Zones

I can only assume that Sheffields' population includes that of Doncasters. Hull being 115th largest in Europe (not taking into account North and North East Lincs!!)

Back to the point, I believe South Yorkshire can support modest growth at DSA. I only think what is stopping it is airlines seemingly favouring growth at EMA and MAN. I know it annoys alot of people when I say it, but its quite clear to see. If FARRRS really does get built right to the airport then it may help somewhat, but EMA and MAN will still be well within easy reach.

Hopefully TOM will pull something out of the bag for next year.. :good:

 

[Aviador]

[offtopic]

In reality, including the more affluent suburbs, Hull is slightly more prosperous than Leeds

I don't know how true that is but the more affluent suburbs of Leeds are probably bigger than hull itself.[/offtopic]

I would tend to agree with Muddy Coffee in that better times would bring significantly more benefits to the airport than some other airports.

 

[pug]

I don't know how true that is but the more affluent suburbs of Leeds are probably bigger than hull itself.

I perhaps should have mentioned that it was on a per-head basis. The population of Hull more than doubles when taking in the true urban and travel to work areas, most of which are affluent towns and villages. Obviously not as heavily populated as Leed, and not as large as Wetherby and Harrogate, but certainly paints a different picture of Hull than most people would think of.

I would agree that better financial climate would help DSA, but it would also boost other airports too. DSA has been around on the back of an economic boom, and by now should have got its foot in the door in terms of offering business friendly flights. I dont think Easyjet were fully committed when they started operating last year for whatever reason, when you would think if there was huge demand existing that they would establish themselves before anyone else. Similar happened with WW recently, as DSA is too close to EMA.

Holiday flights on the other hand seem to do well, and I would not be surprised to see some growth from TOM next year too.

 

[muddycoffee]

.. Sheffield, which is of course the nearest major city to the airport, used to be a major steel producer. The major employment for other towns surrounding DSA used to be coal mining. Needless to say both the city of Sheffield and it's surrounding towns have had to make huge changes to survive since the demise of both the steel and coal mine industries. So to summaries, I'd say the core catchment for the airport are mostly working class people who generally speaking have very little disposable income.

Being born and bred in sheffield I can offer further insight. The city's main downfalls in the 1970s and 1980s was that it built its once superb retail and other prosperity on the fact that there were thousands of extremely well paid manual jobs. In the 1960s we had the best shopping in the north of england and they used to come from far and wide. We had the most department stores outside london and many of the most prestigious ones.

However, as the three day weeks in the 1970s with the industrial decline and the battle with thatcher and the miners in the mid 1980s the town centre got borded up and laid waste as the popupation all went on the dole and onto more poorly paid employment. Large swathes of the working class areas finished up on the dole. Significantly, right through to recently the most popular shops in the town centre were pound shops.

The city has revived in the 90s especially driven by higher tech industries and the massive university sector. With the hallam electoral ward about five years ago we had an impressive national statistic of the highest percentage of graduates in residence in the country "or something along those lines". Many of them are employes in the university or the large hospital trust (13,500 staff), and so today we have a city of basically two halves. The wealthy graduates who earn top money and many stayed on to make a permanent home in the city after coming here to study. And the working classes who do honest work, but earn much less.

 

[muddycoffee]

Stats for september are out

:good:

 

[TheLocalYokel]

DfT forecast for UK airport passenger numbers in 2020 and 2050

I'm a bit surprised that no-one has picked up on the post I did recently in the Aviation Industry forum regarding the DfT's forecast for UK airport passenger figures for the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050.

I reproduced the figures for 2020 and 2050 for the current top 20 airports.

Perhaps the Aviation Industry forum is not well visited so I thought I'd mention the individual airport figures in the forums of the more popular airports on forums4airports.

The Dft is forecasting sparse growth until 2020 at many regional airports.

Doncaster-Sheffield is forecast to be handling 1 mppa in 2020 and 2 mppa in 2050.

 

[steve on his bike]

Hmm Humberside forecast to rise to 12 mppa? DSA is forecast no groth at all until 2050.....The influence of MAG?

 

[pug]

Humberside is not forecast to rise to 12mppa, it says '2-12million' suggesting it has been grouped in with others. I can only assume that Localyokel has missed this out by accident when he posted about DSA. Why would MAG have any more input that Peel/VAS? In fact MAG/HUY had 2.2mppa forecast by 2030 in the best possible scenario and that was a few years ago. I dont expect DSA to be seeing unprecedented growth in the future, in fact VAS have likely given a more realistic forecast to DfT than that fantasy number Peel were quoting beforehand. Growth will still mainly be seen in the South East with some in the major centres of the North West and the Midlands.

Anyway I have already posted my skepticism of DfT forecasts on the Humberside thread.

 

[steve on his bike]

I take it you didnt scroll down as far as table 2.6 then pug,teminal capacity at max use HUY 12mppa DSA capacity forecast 2mppa by 2050,Plymouth forecast to rise to 4mppa. Appallling research (interesting that MAN sees the biggest rise "forecast") Was the research done by employees of MAG?

 

[pug]

I take it you didnt scroll down as far as table 2.6 then pug,teminal capacity at max use HUY 12mppa DSA capacity forecast 2mppa by 2050,Plymouth forecast to rise to 4mppa. Appallling research (interesting that MAN sees the biggest rise "forecast") Was the research done by employees of MAG?

I have already posted my skepticism of DfT forecasts, as I said in my previous post. Why would you think MAG have anything to do with their research, and it is not simply a mistake. What would MAG get out of over-estimating future passenger figures by a huge margin?

It is not unreasonable to expect MAN to see significant forecast growth, nor is it BHX or any airport in the South East.. Why is it not steve? Still, DfT seem to have dubious findings and I worry when the Government seem to take them as gospel when they tend, in fact, to be rubbish...

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Humberside is not forecast to rise to 12mppa, it says '2-12million' suggesting it has been grouped in with others. I can only assume that Localyokel has missed this out by accident when he posted about DSA.

The report gives low, medium and high forecasts for each UK airport for the year 2050.

In HUY's case the estimates range from 2 mppa to 12 mppa.

In DSA's case the low, medium and high forecasts are all set at 2 mppa - that's why there is not a range shown for DSA.

When I posted the original link in the Aviation Industry Forum I explained the way the figures had been arrived at.

I repeat my remark there that I find it scandalous that so much public money has been wasted on such a futile exercise and that any spotter's forecast would be just as valid.

 

[muddycoffee]

Just updating my table, looks like we had a poor november.

 

[Aviador]

Similar % falls at many other UK airports as we slowly drift back into recession. Lets just hope things start to improve soon.

 

[muddycoffee]

Similar % falls at many other UK airports as we slowly drift back into recession. Lets just hope things start to improve soon.

The way I see it from my experience is that there are many people who are too scared to spend any money on a holiday, because they think the economy and their own situation may be getting worse. This is a side effect of the current conservative ministers and their gloom to try and justify their attitude to the cuts.

 

[Aviador]

CAA Passenger Stats for January 2012

During January a total of 38,818 passengers passed through Doncaster Sheffield Airport which is 6.2% up on the previous year.

Year on year passenger figures for the airport stand at 823,891 down -5.9% on the previous twelve months.

 

[muddycoffee]

updated table..

good start to the year.
:yahoo: