Ryanair

[paully]

I read elsewhere that they were taking over some French bases but apparently it's all bases in France and Portugal.

Malta Air, in reality, are another string to O`Leary`s bow, albeit with lower terms and conditions for those who staff it. I have little doubt that they will turn up all over the place to operate any previously profitable services. Personally, I think this is one big game with the unions which he has been itching for, for some time.

 

[Jerry]

Well I hope so as apparently Tenerife South, Gran canaria and Girona are closing as well in January.

Malta Air, in reality, are another string to O`Leary`s bow, albeit with lower terms and conditions for those who staff it. I have little doubt that they will turn up all over the place to operate any previously profitable services. Personally, I think this is one big game with the unions which he has been itching for, for some time.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0807/1067461-ryanair-to-close-base-at-faro-portugal/

Also apparently Tenerife to close as well. It will be interesting to see the next move here. I did read on another forum that BRS would face cuts as well.
The RTE article states no route closures, all to be operated from other bases, although it does seem to mentioned Winter flights. I'm remaining optimistic on this one. I wouldn't be surprised if FR do base an aircraft, offer crews from BRS to relocate to CWL, get a better deal out of CWL than they currently are at BRS. I would've thought both TFS and FAO do very well for FR.

 

[Jerry]

I wouldn't be surprised if FR do base an aircraft, offer crews from BRS to relocate to CWL, get a better deal out of CWL than they currently are at BRS. I would've thought both TFS and FAO do very well for FR.

If Cardiff could get a based aircraft out of this situation that would be fantastic news for the airport. Fingers crossed that at the minimum CWL doesn't lose TFS and FAO.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0807/1067461-ryanair-to-close-base-at-faro-portugal/

I wouldn't be surprised if FR do base an aircraft, offer crews from BRS to relocate to CWL, get a better deal out of CWL than they currently are at BRS. I would've thought both TFS and FAO do very well for FR.

Why would Ryanair necessarily get a better deal out of CWL than BRS? What's to stop BRS simply offering Ryanair better terms if it became an issue?

 

[Jerry]

Why would Ryanair necessarily get a better deal out of CWL than BRS? What's to stop BRS simply offering Ryanair better terms if it became an issue?

Well for instance if CWL offered to waive landing and parking fees I'd imagine that would reduce their costs and might not be something BRS is willing to do?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Well for instance if CWL offered to waive landing and parking fees I'd imagine that would reduce their costs and might not be something BRS is willing to do?

That seemed to be the inference behind #484 which is why I queried it. I have no idea whether it would be likely but was simply wondering why in a sense it seemed to be suggested that only one could play at that game. But why would BRS not be likely to offer a better deal? Genuine question. I don't know the answer if that is the case.

 

[Jerry]

That seemed to be the inference behind #484 which is why I queried it. I have no idea whether it would be likely but was simply wondering why in a sense it seemed to be suggested that only one could play at that game. But why would BRS not be likely to offer a better deal? Genuine question. I don't know the answer if that is the case.

I personally think that the only deal that Cardiff could offer them is free landing and parking fees to operate out of the airport as I assume handling fees for swissport would be between the airline and Swissport. BRS could match that of course. Whether CWL would try and provide other sorts of incentives I don't know as that could lead to state aid claims if it's direct payments.
What could happen of course is the aircraft could come from elsewhere not necessarily Bristol or if they had spare aircraft be hopped over from BRS to operate the tfs flight?
Ryanair have still yet to make an official announcement about this I believe.

 

[8mileshigh]

Would Cardiff be able to support one aircraft through the summer let alone a winter period . The possibility of operating a W pattern with somewhere like Bristol may be a possibility w

 

[Jerry]

Would Cardiff be able to support one aircraft through the summer let alone a winter period . The possibility of operating a W pattern with somewhere like Bristol may be a possibility w

I don't see why not. They have a 1 aircraft base at Bournemouth and i'd imagine the schedule would be quite similar to what the based aircraft does there.
For reference this is what the based aircraft at Bournemouth operates S=summer only S/W=summer and winter W=winter only

Paphos 1 weekly S
Dublin 1 weekly S
Malta 2 weekly S/W
Krakow 1 weekly W
Alicante 5 weekly S 2 weekly W
Girona 4 weekly S
Malaga 1 weekly S/W
Murcia 4 weekly S
Tenerife 1 weekly S/W

In the summer it operates 19 weekly flights in the winter it operates 7 weekly flights.
At Cardiff Ryanair operates 7 weekly flights in April, May and October and 10 weekly between June and September and during winter it operates 4 weekly flights.
I've no doubt CWL could sustain a 1 aircraft base all year round. 2 or more would be a problem especially in winter.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Why would Ryanair necessarily get a better deal out of CWL than BRS? What's to stop BRS simply offering Ryanair better terms if it became an issue?

I would imagine with Flybe cutting back the Welsh Assembly would be keen to get Ryanair in !

 

[Jerry]

I would imagine with Flybe cutting back the Welsh Assembly would be keen to get Ryanair in !

I don't think the government would want to get involved like they did with Qatar Airways. Any deal like the Flybe deal would be between the airport and the airline. I also think if the airport and Ryanair were to do a deal like they did with Flybe it would have to include several city destinations ie Rome Milan and Berlin to encourage inbound tourism but the deal would be heavily scrutinised from outside no doubt.

 

[superking]

I read some where that the BOH was to close,now weather this is a fact or just someone guessing. Why would FR open a base where ever if they are shutting bases.That just don't make sense to do that.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I would imagine with Flybe cutting back the Welsh Assembly would be keen to get Ryanair in !

I don't think the government would want to get involved like they did with Qatar Airways. Any deal like the Flybe deal would be between the airport and the airline. I also think if the airport and Ryanair were to do a deal like they did with Flybe it would have to include several city destinations ie Rome Milan and Berlin to encourage inbound tourism but the deal would be heavily scrutinised from outside no doubt.

Earlier this year Ryanair told the Commons Welsh Affairs Committee that APD was restricting their development at CWL. They didn't say, and weren't asked as far as I'm aware, if APD was restricting their development at other UK airports, or whether CWL was a particular problem.

If that is the case, and I take many of Ryanair's statements with a pinch of salt, what will have changed to make CWL more enticing for them? Perhaps the WG-owned airport company (but not the WG itself - it's a subtle but important difference because of EU state aid rules although they might no longer apply after 31 October if the Westminster government so decides) is in the process of generously oiling the entrance door. Why wait until now though? Was the Flybe contract really holding them back before?

 

[Jerry]

I read some where that the BOH was to close,now weather this is a fact or just someone guessing. Why would FR open a base where ever if they are shutting bases.That just don't make sense to do that.

If you look at where many of these base closures are it seems in countries which are striking and where they are having union disputes. I'd be surprised if BOH closed as I wouldn't be surprised if its quite high yielding for them as they are the only LCC operating in that area.
As for new bases I guess it's all to do with what they are offered by airports and whether they feel that they can make money there.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Why would Ryanair necessarily get a better deal out of CWL than BRS? What's to stop BRS simply offering Ryanair better terms if it became an issue?

BRS are in a much better position financially and in terms of passenger numbers. Obviously they wouldn't want Ryanair to leave, but there's other options for BRS to take up should FR try to throw their weight around. CWL on the other hand is potentially seeing another decline after only just getting FR through the door, and losing the BE routes and may be willing to cut better deals to get the footfall through the door. Lets not forget historically FR have targeted Airports lower down the food chain because the larger, better located Airports wouldn't succumb to their demands. CWL could be that smaller out of the way Airport, with BRS being the bigger better located one. If CWL offer FR a good deal, it will clearly increase passenger numbers. There aren't many options for CWL to take and for all their woes, FR have the pulling power CWL needs to get people thinking about using CWL again. The main issue for CWL's management is, is it worth getting in to bed with the devil, short term, or leave the stands empty with no other options to take up the routes FR could cover? If FR get a good deal, come in for say 2-3 years, get passengers through the door then bugger off when the deal ends again, at least CWL will be able to provide some statistics to other potential carriers.

What confuses me is exactly what FR are up to at the moment. There's continued talks of unions/staff issues where staff are asking for betters terms but FR refuse to budge on. FR then play the victim and announce cuts as a result. They have been profitable for some time, so why so many cuts if it's profits that will take a dent, but they will continue to be making money?

Then there's bringing the max situation in to it. Are the max's being brought in to replace the -800's like for like, or was it a mix of replacements and expansion? If the latter, then why not hold off on the expansion.
Reading other forums, general opinion is FR are starting to hit a brick wall. Unhappy crews, FR withdrawing from Airports because deals/subsidies are being pulled, unhappy customers and rubbish customer service. Something needs to give, but in the position they are in, they can just start cutting things. Eventually it won't wash. People constantly complain about FR but still millions fly with them.

I've not read on any forums about BOH closing. So far i've seen FAO, LPA, TFS, GRO, BFS and cuts at EMA, with possible cuts at ORK, EDI and GLA.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Thank you for that interesting and detailed response, Foxlimayankee.

 

[Jerry]

So curiously a week after announcements in the press that the Tenerife base is to close, the route is still onsale after January.

 

[Severn]

Summary of RYR Routes - Summer 2019

I've compared a week of the Ryanair schedule from CWL in August 2019 to the same week in 2018.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of routes operating per week:
2018: 2
2019: 5 (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of flights per week:
2018: 3
2019: 10 (+7)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly Frequencies: (a '[+]' or '[-]' represents change from 2018)

3x Weekly
Malaga (AGP) [NEW] [+3]

2x Weekly
Barcelona (BCN) [NEW] [+2]
Malta (MLA) [NEW] [+2]
Faro (FAO)

1x Weekly
Tenerife (TFS)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes
All destinations above are bases of Ryanair and therefore all flights are operated from these bases.

 

[Jerry]

Lets hope it's at least the same for summer 2020!