Ryanair

[MrFenner]

Flew back from ALC last night on board a 737-800 MAX (or 8-200 if you prefer) EIHGY

Was delayed for around 90mins leaving ALC due to ATC staff shortages, not sure where as it wasn’t affecting other departures at ALC but the aircraft had been to MRS beforehand - notoriously it’s the French who generally have ATC issues…

Anyway, the flight was fully booked and in fact the website said “sold out” a few days before so presumably oversold too.

So nice to be able to fly Ryanair year-round at CWL, I just hope, much like many others here, they’ll offer more and more flights over time

Notably, with this as the return flight coupled with a VY outbound on Wednesday, it just shows how both airlines compliment each other at CWL - and long may it continue!

 

[Jerry]

Anyway, the flight was fully booked and in fact the website said “sold out” a few days before so presumably oversold too.

That's good to see. I don't believe Ryanair oversells flights though

 

[Jerry]

Dublin 7 weekly (8 in October)
Malaga 5 weekly (4 in April and May)
Alicante 4 weekly
Faro 3 weekly
Tenerife 1 weekly


20 weekly departures at peak summer (21 in October, 19 in April and May)

Cardiff Airport -

cardiff-airport.com

 

[Em0866]

It'll be interesting to see if they offer a different destination or two in addition to these 5 for summer 2027

 

[Seasider]

Am I missing something? The article states Alicante, Faro & Tenerife & Dublin,. what is the fifth route?

 

[Jerry]

Am I missing something? The article states Alicante, Faro & Tenerife & Dublin,. what is the fifth route?

Malaga

 

[geoff]

The fifth route is Malaga.

 

[Samdorob]

It'll be interesting to see if they offer a different destination or two in addition to these 5 for summer 2027

I hope so. I anticipate they will every year, but there hasn’t been anything new from them since 2024. The return of Malta and Barcelona would be good!

 

[Jerry]

I hope so. I anticipate they will every year, but there hasn’t been anything new from them since 2024. The return of Malta and Barcelona would be good!

They seem to have focused on building up frequency on the routes they have. Mallorca was a hope for the airport but didn't seem to happen. It would complete the set of the main holiday destinations. I'm hoping we'll see Malaga extended into the winter.

 

[CAN&I]

They seem to have focused on building up frequency on the routes they have. Mallorca was a hope for the airport but didn't seem to happen. It would complete the set of the main holiday destinations. I'm hoping we'll see Malaga extended into the winter.

Although the hope mentioned stemmed from CWL's public admission that Mallorca was a priority low-cost target, this was pushed and amplified by certain quarters of the airport's "fan-base" as practically a nailed-on certainty for 2025, then 2026, yet predictably nothing transpired despite warnings elsewhere that expectations should be dialled down somewhat.

Ryanair's "modus operandi" has been consistent over that time given the local market and especially given the options available via the competitor airport that dare not be named!

It has so far focussed on adding capacity to existing volume routes as opposed to trying something new. Its therefore reasonable to assume that the status quo will continue until at least 1) the outcome of the legal proceedings via the CAT are known, 2) the next government is in place in Cardiff Bay and/or 3) whether the airport that dare not be named proves successful in its own plans to increase passenger capacity.

Moving on, while low-cost services to Mallorca, Paris and Edinburgh are the obvious volume gaps that need filling ASAP for sure, its difficult to see who would have the appropriate risk appetite to step in given the legal, political and market uncertainties involved, never mind who would have available capacity.

We could play the usual game of fantasy-routes and speculate of course but when a layer of realism is applied it unfortunately becomes far more difficult to see light beyond the end of the tunnel in the short term.

Its not just a CWL problem either. A number of smaller regional airports face similar issues today such is the nature of the industry right now where previously it could support challenger airlines such as Flybe, Flybmi or similar to take on markets now dominated by Ryanair and easyJet.

 

[Jerry]

"fan-base" as practically a nailed-on certainty for 2025, then 2026

Like I said Mallorca was a hope by the airport but hasn't materialised yet and if Ryanair were concerned about the results of the tribunal I doubt they'd have expanded this year and i think we need to assume Bristol will get it's cap higher again. I do think Ryanair will continue to grow at Cardiff and hope we'll see more in the winter as well whether they add new routes in the future is anyone's guess only they know what they have planned.
IF a base is a goal even long term then it's likely routes like Alicante and Malaga will need to be seen to be sustainable over the whole year with high frequency in the summer.

 

[geoff]

With TUI this summer at 7 flights a week to Majorca, and the intention of selling more flight only seats as well as inclusive tours, they may well be able to fill the seat only gap that's needed, the only snag is that their prices won't be as low as Ryanair.

 

[CAN&I]

Like I said Mallorca was a hope by the airport but hasn't materialised yet and if Ryanair were concerned about the results of the tribunal I doubt they'd have expanded this year and i think we need to assume Bristol will get it's cap higher again. I do think Ryanair will continue to grow at Cardiff and hope we'll see more in the winter as well whether they add new routes in the future is anyone's guess only they know what they have planned.
IF a base is a goal even long term then it's likely routes like Alicante and Malaga will need to be seen to be sustainable over the whole year with high frequency in the summer.

Indeed. Was agreeing with your comment that the hope was generated by an admission by the airport but as yet hasn't transpired. Our point was that the hope was magnified and pushed as a nailed-on certainty by some quarters of the "fan base", which itslef set expectations amongst some even further.

With regards Ryanair not being concerned about the tribunal, there's a couple of points to consider. Firstly, they should be concerned as the outcome will be the first decision of its kind and could set precedence as to how publicly owned airports may fund commercial relationships with airlines in the future. With 18 of the top 35 UK airports either wholly- or majority-publicly owned the outcome could have far reaching consequences way beyond Cardiff. Secondly, there's a difference in adding capacity to existing, profitable services, possibly for the short term, than committing to the longer term investment and risk involved with establishing and growing new routes.

Ryanair is Cardiff's most realistic hope of growth as you say. We've seen Dublin grow, Tenerife go year-round and Alicante heading the same way. Otherwise Malaga's presence seems to be focussed around the Christmas period for Vueling with seemingly little interest from Ryanair.

As for Bristol, you're right. Their expansion plans are almost certainly going to receive the go-ahead, despite the significant anti-expansion lobby, although like last time the battle may prove to be protracted ahead of the win. The outcome, of course, is likely to benefit easyJet more than anyone else due to their dominant position and relationship with the airport. That could feasibly drive Ryanair elsewhere in the market capacity-wise, with the likes of Cardiff hopefully being the main benefactor.

Can't help feel there's much uncertainty to navigate over the next year before we see significant traction.

With TUI this summer at 7 flights a week to Majorca, and the intention of selling more flight only seats as well as inclusive tours, they may well be able to fill the seat only gap that's needed, the only snag is that their prices won't be as low as Ryanair.

...or indeed be low enough to compete with easyJet elsewhere.

 

[Jerry]

With TUI this summer at 7 flights a week to Majorca, and the intention of selling more flight only seats as well as inclusive tours, they may well be able to fill the seat only gap that's needed, the only snag is that their prices won't be as low as Ryanair.

I think TUI though appeals to a different market even in seat only compared to Ryanair.

That could feasibly drive Ryanair elsewhere in the market capacity-wise, with the likes of Cardiff hopefully being the main benefactor.

Well they are well placed for any future expansion at the airport. They're now up to 20 weekly in peak Summer and up to 10 weekly in peak winter. So fingers crossed will continue to expand in the future.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Palma is a no brainer, and I'm quite surprised has not been picked up again already.

Looking at July from BRS there are 53 flights a week (FR - 11, EZY - 21, Jet2 - 13, TUI - 8)
A route like that should be able to sustain a few weekly summer flights without too much incentive given to Airlines. Ryanair are likely best placed, as Vueling are a bit all over the place with their scheduling, even though they have built up a decent following.

Exeter and Teeside have 2x weekly PMI flights with much lower overall passenger numbers.

Moving on, while low-cost services to Mallorca, Paris and Edinburgh are the obvious volume gaps that need filling ASAP for sure, its difficult to see who would have the appropriate risk appetite to step in given the legal, political and market uncertainties involved, never mind who would have available capacity.

Personally I can't see Paris or Edinburgh coming back any time soon. At the very least if FR base then possibly Edinburgh, but that adds in complications with the UK registered fleet.

With TUI this summer at 7 flights a week to Majorca, and the intention of selling more flight only seats as well as inclusive tours, they may well be able to fill the seat only gap that's needed, the only snag is that their prices won't be as low as Ryanair.

No-one really knows yet how that will look. TUI currently have high prices on flight only, but if they change their model, it's likely flight only prices will come down. TUI also allow free 10kgs hand luggage and their checked baggage charges are lower than EZY and FR which creates it's own saving on the final price.
It's also worth noting that TUI's flight only prices closer to the date of flying can be very competitive.


When is the next update on the Tribunal?

 

[Jerry]

Palma is a no brainer, and I'm quite surprised has not been picked up again already.

I suspect there's a lot of competition for the flights with the PMI based aircraft from all over europe. I do think we'll see the route with them eventually.

Personally I can't see Paris or Edinburgh coming back any time soon

With Paris I suspect Air France is the airports target rather than Ryanair. With Edinburgh it may take the expansion of UK reg aircraft at EDI to bring the route about and Cardiff may have to be seen as a route that helps increase aircraft utilisation.

When is the next update on the Tribunal?

There was no date set for a decision so could be weeks or months.

 

[Samdorob]

With Edinburgh it may take the expansion of UK reg aircraft at EDI to bring the route about

You also have to question if they could fill a 737. I know there used to be 3 flights a day way back when, but the recent performance of CWL - EDI from Loganair hasn’t given the impression there’s great demand. Part of that can be attributed to the low cost competition from Bristol vs premium priced Loganair - but still I think the not so great performance over the last 5 years would put any airline off.

 

[CWL94]

You also have to question if they could fill a 737. I know there used to be 3 flights a day way back when, but the recent performance of CWL - EDI from Loganair hasn’t given the impression there’s great demand. Part of that can be attributed to the low cost competition from Bristol vs premium priced Loganair - but still I think the not so great performance over the last 5 years would put any airline off.

£30 return flights vs £300 will not put pax off. If BOH can sustain 3/4 weekly year round, CWL surely can

 

[Jerry]

You also have to question if they could fill a 737. I know there used to be 3 flights a day way back when, but the recent performance of CWL - EDI from Loganair hasn’t given the impression there’s great demand. Part of that can be attributed to the low cost competition from Bristol vs premium priced Loganair - but still I think the not so great performance over the last 5 years would put any airline off.

Ryanair and Loganair are completely different beasts and we're not talking about daily flights but probably 3-4 weekly. They'd attract a completely different set of passengers from both ends and quite a few would no doubt be using Bristol but also potentially they could attract new ones from both ends.

 

[Samdorob]

£30 return flights vs £300 will not put pax off. If BOH can sustain 3/4 weekly year round, CWL surely can

I have confidence it would do well. It’s whether Ryanair would given how the route has performed on paper.