Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

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Does allow for a bit more "wiggle room" before a 4th service comes along.
 
US Loads December:

A bit tricky as I don't know how many flights Jet2 operated to EWR. Can't be none or the LF would be >100% again.
EWR was up 2% compared to a (surprising) 6% drop on JFK.

Routes that were more straightforward:

ORD 58 sectors with 2 on a B763 LF 69.6% (-5%)

PHL All 62 sectors LF 74.7% (+3%)

ATL All 62 sectors LF 75.4% (+6%)

On JFK, ignoring PIA, it would depend on how many flights TCX operated. Based on 2 x wkly, the total seats available would be 24,536, giving a LF of 84.9% for the 20,834 pax. If 3 x wkly, the LF drops to 76.8% or thereabouts. Incidentally, while AA were all B757s on their 54 sectors, DL used B763s for 26 of their 46 sectors.

Thanks to the TAS listings initially to determine the number of flights operated for the US carriers and VS, and to Andy's logs for the a/c types.
 
Emirates: David, I believe 360 seats on the B77W is the 3 class version, so if it was used every day the LF could well be 91%. Also, the version 1 of the A380 has 489 seats, not 517. I don't know whether MAN ever sees those, but it does mean the LF calculation is not necessarily an exact science. Suffice to say it was very good in December.
 
Not been able to work out if we kept 1st class on the 77W. Either way, it is amazing to see them maintain loads despite increased competition on the non-stop alternatives
 
Manchester up 17.7% in Jan to 1.66M rolling total 25.9M

Now in the top 20 airports in Europe, per MAN.

-------------------------------------

Manchester Airport is now ranked among Europe’s top 20 airports in terms of passenger numbers after achieving its busiest January on record.

Last month saw 1,665,943 people set off for the airport’s 210 destinations as North West holidaymakers opted to ditch the cold in favour of warmer climes.

The figure represents a year-on-year increase of 11.3% and brings Manchester Airport’s rolling annual passenger total to 25,864,24 .

As a result, Manchester has now replaced Stockholm Airport in the list of Europe’s 20 busiest, ahead of airports in Lisbon, Helsinki, Athens, Vienna, Brussels and other capitals.

Manchester experienced particularly strong growth in long-haul traffic, with overall numbers up 13% during the last 12 months.

Discussing January’s passenger figures, which mark the airport’s 34th consecutive month of growth, CEO Ken O’Toole said: “To enter the top 20 airports of Europe is a significant milestone and sees us rub shoulders with the leading gateways on the continent, in terms of total passenger numbers, the mix of destinations available and the aircraft operating on those routes.

"It is pleasing that growth has been delivered across the board, with all categories of carriers continuing to recognise the strength of our catchment area, which stretches from North Wales in the west to Humberside in the east and up to the Scottish Borders.“

He continued: "A growing number of international visitors are also looking to Manchester Airport as their gateway not just to the North but the UK as a whole.

“As 2017 continues we aim to bring on more long haul routes, in order to plug the 22m people in our catchment area to key global destinations, either to unlock investment and economic opportunities for businesses, or for far flung family holidays for leisure passengers.“

In January, aircraft movements were up by 17.4% with nearly 14k planes taking off and landing on the airport’s two runways.

Cargo, meanwhile, rose year on year by 10% with 8,133 tonnes carried.

https://bdaily.co.uk/industrials/09...ry-puts-manchester-airport-in-europes-top-20/
 
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CAA Stats - December 2016 update

The CAA has now updated the figures for December and the only change has been the inclusion of Inverness, which was previously missing.

Inverness - 4,290 (-2.83126%)

Monthly passengers - 1,802,473

Moving annual figure - 25,547,324 (which is roughly 65,000 lower than the MAG published figure.)
 
CAA Stats JANUARY 2017

MAN's pax figures have already been reported with a 17.7% increase.

For long haul routes going East, subject to all flights operating and assumptions re a/c type and configs, a summary is as follows:

Airline / Pax / Change / Ave Load / LF
SQ / 6,702 / -28% / 152
CX / 11,860 / +10% / 329 / 96.9%
HU / 8,051 / - / 237 / 81.1%
SV / 8,538 / +22% / 194 / 65.1%
EK / 90,003 / +12% / 484
EY / 36,574 / -3% / 295 / 87.5%
QR / 30,760 / +13% / 217 / 85.3%

Sorry about the alignments - I should learn how to chart it properly.

Does anyone know if the morning EK is a 3 class or 2 class version?
CX looks spectacularly high - were there any extra flights?
HU is based on all A333 ops. Any A332s would increase the LF.
QR based on all B788 ops. with 254 seats.
SV - I suspect all 5 x weekly flights did not operate in January. Will revise when I can check schedule.

For info, SQ to IAH worked out at an average load of 77, a modest increase from 71 in December.

First time EK has hit 90,000 pax in the month I believe. Must be getting closer to that 1 million in a rolling 12 months.
 
Can I ask if the average loads for SQ to SIN are higher than with the MUC tag?

This should be a good measure of whether the non stop service has attracted new customers - the total passenger numbers will be lower because there are 2x fewer weekly flights...
 
The Saudia flights are in low season (highest LFs are May-October) but are extremely high yielding. Nothing to worry about considering they are increasing flights.

CX is amazing in January! 5 weekly A350 is not enough if that figure is correct.
 
Can I ask if the average loads for SQ to SIN are higher than with the MUC tag?

This should be a good measure of whether the non stop service has attracted new customers - the total passenger numbers will be lower because there are 2x fewer weekly flights...

I've only got the average load figures to hand from March'16:

March 155
April 137
May 109
June 113
July 160
Aug 169
Sep 152
Oct 115 (may include a couple non-stops at the end of the month)

Non-stop so far:
Nov 111
Dec 145
Jan 152

Pretty seasonal as you can see but no indications of a big change in the MAN-SIN sectors. What would be more interesting perhaps is the relative take-up of business pax who you would expect to appreciate the non-stop flights.
Then there is the issue of how demand on IAH-SIN compares to demand on MUC-SIN.
 
For January tobe on-par with September though is pretty good - hopefully we will see some modest increases as we enter through spring/summer.
 
Looking at the short haul figures for January, there were notable increases to some of the capitals and main cities in Europe.
Amsterdam with 80,813 pax was up 14%
Paris was 48,024 pax, an increase of 27%
Dusseldorf 17,324 was up 37%
There were good increases to the airports serving Milan and Rome in Italy.

The introduction of Ryanair to the 2 German cities already served by other carriers was also impressive for the increase in pax numbers, although what it did to overall LFs on the routes and to fares and yields is of course less certain.
Berlin increased by 125% and Hamburg by 106%. The best month so far for pax was December (Christmas markets) with 27,931 on Berlin (up 122%) and 22,532 to Hamburg (up 109%).

Nuremberg, depending on whether flights have operated daily since the route's introduction, is looking rather less rosy. Assuming daily flights:
Nov. 8,100 pax LF 71.4%
Dec. 9,792 pax LF 83.6%
Jan. 6,796 pax LF 58.0%

If anyone knows whether daily flights were scheduled and operated in January, please let me know. I very much hope they weren't and didn't. Aren't Ryanair's overall LFs over its whole network well over 90%. Whether that applies every month though, I'm not sure. Is a 189 seat a/c too big for Nuremberg, or a daily frequency too high I wonder.
Maybe the next few months will give a better picture.
 
Good evening all.

I'll hopefully have my usual monthly analysis done by the end of tomorrow in the meantime, in response to Land23R, the moving annual figure for Emirates shows as 941,663.
 
March 155
April 137
May 109
June 113
July 160
Aug 169
Sep 152
Oct 115 (may include a couple non-stops at the end of the month)

Non-stop so far:
Nov 111
Dec 145
Jan 152

I actually think that is fairly steady. It remains between the 140-160 passengers per flight each way mark from March 2015 to January 2017.

The outliers are May and June 2016; and October and November 2016 - when the new service started.

This around 60% of the total load, and the numbers for January and December are quietly encouraging. We don't know the yield, but let's see how it progresses from now through to the summer season.
 
CX is amazing in January! 5 weekly A350 is not enough if that figure is correct.

That CX figure is quite extraordinary. I know they have a high seasonal spike in demand (expats, students) but that is significant. If they keep these numbers up let's hope they give a further capacity bump...
 
If the LFs re CX Hainan ARE SO high, why on earth are we not seeing the immediate and automatic increases one would expect?

#baffled of Manchester
 

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i must be a lunatic. Friday 25th Sept will see me doing a daytrip that involves me leaving my flat in Manchester at 1am and not getting back home until after midnight. All because I'm doing a Loch Ness and Scottish Highlands trip.... out of Glasgow
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