Manchester CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Scottie Dog]

.....and I had better revisit the monthly figures to see why my data, from their reports, is slightly different. Will it be a wet day so that I have an excuse to not be out gardening!!!

 

[Aceshigh]

Incredible analysis from Scottie
S/b working at MAG !

 

[David_itl]

Standby for the Houston to MAN/SIN splits from a Houston website! December has no passengers recorded in either direction for some reason so we can safely say "Houston, we have a problem!".

 

[David_itl]

Here we go, Figures don't correlate to the CAA stats which makes me think that you'd need to take off the IAH-SIN and SIN-IAH figures to find out the "accurate" MAN performances for SIN-MAN and vice-versa.

 

[Dobbo]

I'll have to take a look at this when I have more time. Numbers look odd, but there must be a way of working out the overall load factor for the two sectors (even if the MAN-IAH sector is a blended average of the CAA stats).

 

[Land23R]

Don't know whether it's of interest but I thought I'd look at a couple of short haul markets that have been mentioned in the past as under served from MAN - Poland and some of the French provincial cities.

I've focused on April-June as in some cases there were no comparatives for Jan-Mar. either because a route was new or had been seasonal. The 2 figures are the number of pax and change from the prior year per the CAA stats

------------ April ------------- May ------------ June
Marseilles 2,710 / +12% ; 2,556 / +20% ; 2,552 / -16%
Beauvais 3,874 / -7% ; 4,143 / -20% ; 4,151 / -23%
Limoges 4,615 / +24% ; 4,395 / -7% ; 6,307 / +50%
Carcassonne 2,805 / -11% ; 4,310 / +8% ; 4,434 / -2%
Beziers 2,981 / 0% ; 2,852 / -6% ; 4,019 / +61%

POLAND:
Gdansk 4,061 / +32% ; 4,861 / +55% ; 4,586 / +60%
Krakow 13,214 / +171% ; 13,819 / +99% ; 13,664 / +95%
Rzeszow 3,180 / +12% ; 3,227 / +1% ; 2,886 / -10%
Warsaw 4,141 / -9% ; 4,945 / +7% ; 4,423 / -5%
Wroclaw 4,114 n/c ; 4,996 / n/c ; 4,576 / n/c

Wroclaw was a new route last winter so no comparatives.

I appreciate April will have been affected by the timing of Easter.
I've not tried to assess the figures in terms of LFs, as I've not trawled through the frequencies which in most cases are 2, 3 or 4 x weekly.

On the French routes, Beauvais doesn't look a winner, and Limoges has done better in growth terms than Carcassone. If Marseilles is on the ezy 319 then at 2 x weekly the figures are not bad but did someone say it was dropped for winter? Is it back next summer do we know?
The huge % increases on Limoges and Beziers in June look remarkable. Hope I've copied them correctly!

On Poland, Krakow now has a second carrier on the route but the numbers are very encouraging, and good to see Gdansk improving. Rzeszow with RYR ticks over at 2 x weekly and Wroclaw seems to have started quite well if it's 3 x weekly. The disappointment in some ways is Warsaw, as it's been suggested that the route is under served. January was up 8% but March down 1%.

I'm sure the figures will show all out of line and not as I typed, but hey ho, hope they are legible.









.

 

[Scottie Dog]

I thought I would have a look at trying to get a correct formatting from an Excel document, whilst giving an overview of the monthly, annual (January to December) and a moving annual totals.

Month Terminal Pax Transit Pax Monthly Pax Annual Total Moving Annual Total
Jun-16..2,528,997....2,113........2,531,110
Jul-16..2,818,829....2,478........2,821,30711..5,352,417...2,821,307
Aug-16..2,933,415....3,002........2,936,417....8,288,834...5,757,724
Sep-16..2,670,483....1,852........2,672,335...10,961,169...8,430,059
Oct-16..2,330,284....3,422........2,333,706...13,294,875..10,763,765
Nov-16..1,699,265....5,355........1,704,620...14,999,495..12,468,385
Dec-16..1,804,517....5,657........1,810,174...16,809,669..14,278,559
Jan-17..1,664,792....6,228........1,671,020....1,671,020..15,949,579
Feb-17..1,661,972....4,970........1,666,942....3,337,962..17,616,521
Mar-17..1,915,496....5,145........1,920,641....5,258,603..19,537,162
Apr-17..2,242,804....4,462........2,247,266....7,505,869..21,784,428
May-17..2,506,838....5,604........2,512,442...10,018,311..24,296,870
Jun-17..2,755,129....4,850........2,759,979...12,778,290..27,056,849

Interestingly the moving annual total does not agree with that given by the CAA for June 2017, however I have used their monthly published figures for each month.

 

[Land23R]

Interestingly the moving annual total does not agree with that given by the CAA for June 2017, however I have used their monthly published figures for each month.

Scottie, don't your figures for M.A.T. incl. Transits. I thought the CAA were Terminal pax, but perhaps I'm wrong.
Mind you, whether it would agree without the transits I'm not sure. Do variations occur between CAA Provisional and Final?

Anyway, well done with the lay-out. Might even have a go myself.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Scottie, don't your figures for M.A.T. incl. Transits. I thought the CAA were Terminal pax, but perhaps I'm wrong.
Mind you, whether it would agree without the transits I'm not sure. Do variations occur between CAA Provisional and Final?

Anyway, well done with the lay-out. Might even have a go myself.

Thanks Land23R.

You are right about the fact that I should have used Terminal Passengers. The only problem is that the CAA show 27,004,438 in their Airport Statistics Summary for June! My figures for Terminal Passengers is 27,003,824.

 

[Scottie Dog]

For a change I thought I would do a quick analysis of freight passing through Manchester. I have only shown figures (in tonnes) for total freight, and 'set down and 'pickup' by Non-EU airlines to emphasis the carrying by those companies.

Period..Total Freight...Set Down Foreign Non EU...Picked Up Foreign Non EU
201601..6909.694........3198.238..................2483.556
201602..7060.847........2950.359..................2361.582
201603..8380.824........3793.471..................3050.114
201604..8897.127........4127.437..................3185.439
201605..9024.528........4271.654..................2915.481
201606..9932.637........5173.601..................3007.456
201607..9693.124........4639.031..................3356.883
201608..9546.938........4552.447..................3209.41
201609..9431.445........4051.507..................3407.786
201610..10633.516.......4424.838..................3495.14
201611..10424.015.......4198.869..................3422.73
201612..9695.487........3647.917..................3621.284
201701..7890.902........3558.066..................2877.715
201702..7852.331........2829.811..................3302.338
201703..9668.052........4053.219..................3841.716
201704..9046.755........3899.249..................3631.638
201705..10299.175.......4620.454..................3772.783
201706..10703.912.......4987.944..................3644.687

 

[Scottie Dog]

I've just been looking back at June's figures and noticed (as you do) that Manchester had 195 destinations to which passengers flew - okay, that includes oddities like Gatwick with just 2 people but at least 181 were destinations with over 500 passengers carried.

 

[David_itl]

That's made me look at last year's stats. 220 destinations with over 500 passengers. One of which I doubt was bookable... 762 passengers to BHX! Extending it to any passengers carried and it's 260. Sometimes it helps not being a hub airport/over reliant on a single airline.

 

[ethanegcc]

Does anyone know when the July statistics will be released?

 

[Scottie Dog]

Does anyone know when the July statistics will be released?

I wish I had the answer to that question as I could then plan my next break!

 

[ethanegcc]

I wish I had the answer to that question as I could then plan my next break!

Haha! We are always grateful for your analytics!

 

[Dobbo]

When do we get the raw figures for June! Thought that would be last week...

 

[Scottie Dog]

I have now loaded cargo figures back through to 2007 and note, not surprisingly I suppose, that loads are down considerably.

In the first six months of 2007 the average monthly throughput was 12,399 tonnes. This year that figure is 9,243, or a reduction of 25.65%. The peak month was November 2007 with 16,282 tonnes and the lowest 6,184 in February 2014.

 

[Dobbo]

July 2017 numbers

Passengers:

Monthly total: 3,031,844
Rolling 12 month: 27,231,037
Percentage change: +7.4%

Cargo:

Monthly total: 12,069 tonnes
Percentage change: +20.6%

 

[Dobbo]

I think this is the first time MAN has passed 3m passengers in a callendar month.

Well over 27m rolling annual passengers. 28m is well in MAN's sights in late 2017 or early 2018.

Cargo is vastly up. Do we have an explanation for this?

 

[Scottie Dog]

Should that read July figures?