Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Scottie Dog]

One thing that might have to be taken into account would be the demise of flybe - although personally I would not want this to ever happen.

Should this occur then Manchester stands to lose over 1.5m domestic passengers as the majority of routes are not duplicated by any other carrier - the international routes are in the most covered by other airlines and therefore are less likely to be effected. I have therefore produced another set of figures for your enjoyment!

View attachment 11704

 

[IanFarquharson]

Flybe is a worry for MAN & BHX, both airports have about 2.5m Flybe seats annually, hopefully they will survive and if so I can see Manchester achieving 5% or slightly higher in 2019 but then I can see all airports slowing down, so I can see the 30m level being achieved in 2020. Which would be a fantastic result.

 

[IanFarquharson]

November

 

[Scottie Dog]

...and to break down the report from Ian I can now give my monthly analysis of the November statistics.

Manchester Statistics - November 2018

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

Mumbai was served for the first time in November 2018 with 6,003 passengers.

Million passenger routes (Rolling annual figures)

Amsterdam - 1,025,062 passengers
Dubai - 1,007,056 passengers

One domestic statistic is currently missing from the CAA report for November.

Aberdeen has yet to provide figures
Total passengers for this route in 2017 was 17,551.

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics/MAG statistics

Monthly passengers - 1,836,591 +7.1%
Annual Total - 21,034,794 +1.27%
Moving Annual Total - 28,232,909 +1.26%

Monthly Movements - 14,232 +1.73%
Annual Movements - 145,179 -1.42%
Moving Annual Movements - 200,736 -1.64%


Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers

View attachment 11740

Top 25 destinations with highest percentage increase.

View attachment 11741

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.

View attachment 11736

Comparison of top 25 destinations - November 2008 versus November 2018

View attachment 11737

Major changes to Domestic traffic

View attachment 11738

Aberdeen has not reported figures for November.

CAA statistics for November are provisional.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Thanks for the great work as always, SD. Just one potential gremlin in there: have the two Belfast Airports been transposed in the first two lists? I suspect the growth was driven by RYR and EZY.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Interesting suggestion with regards to the Belfast airport stats, however those are the figures supplied by the CAA.

Maybe there will be revised figures when the next update is published!

 

[David_itl]

Jet Airways average 166.75 passengers or 66% loads.

 

[mullion]

Not bad for first month of operations

 

[Scottie Dog]

I've just been rereading your comment EGCC_MAN and it has finally clicked as to what you were saying. Yes, you are quite correct in so far as I have transposed the BHD & BFS figures. I'll update the file this evening.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Size of UK Airports as at 30.11.18


LHR – 79,630,859 up 2.3%

LGW – 46,098,825 up 1.3%

MAN – 28,170,603 up 1.3%

STN – 27,809,188 up 7.3%

LTN – 16,567,965 up 3.5%

EDI – 14,191,916 up 6.3%

BHX – 12,416,897 down 4.2%

GLA – 9,701,390 down 2.1%

EMA – 4,867,632 up 0.22%

 

[Scottie Dog]

Thanks for the great work as always, SD. Just one potential gremlin in there: have the two Belfast Airports been transposed in the first two lists? I suspect the growth was driven by RYR and EZY.

Okay, I've updated the file to show the correct Belfast Airport.

ps - another note to myself "please try harder".

 

[Land23R]

Thanks SD for your usual excellent analysis and your input Ian.
Thanks to David also for the average load / LF on Jet Arways.

I can add a few more average loads for November and a couple of LFs but it's more complex if the equipment varies.

SQ - SIN 164

SQ - IAH 121

CX - HKG 250 L/F 89.3% (based on 56 sectors - I believe 2 return flights were cancelled part of some advance cut-backs over winter at various airports.

HU - PEK 159

EK - DXB 413

EY - AUH 243

SV - JED 159

WY - MCT 177 L/F is 75.6% if lower density B788 (30 J class seats); 66.3% if higher density config)

I saw on another thread that Olton Pete had mentioned A/L for QR at various UK airport. I think MAN was 171 or 173 which he reckoned was a LF of just over 60% from memory.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Winter 2018 projected figures, based on slots requested, are currently +3.2% for movements and + 7.9% for seats in comparison with Winter 2017 actual numbers.

Summer 2019 provisional numbers show planned movements +15.6% and seats at +20.6% compared with Summer 2018 actuals.

As always at this time these figures should be taken with a pinch of salt as airlines are still finalising their schedules.

 

[Aceshigh]

Unlike BHX which isn't slot restricted the loss of Flybe to MAN whilst significant in terms of UK connectivity and domestic feed would be quickly filled by other airlines who have applied for 2019 but cannot get in.

I suspect BHX would simply take yet another hit.

 

[Scottie Dog]

I was hoping to do a full comparison between 1973 and 2018 figures, however it would seem that the CAA statistics from 45 years ago were done in a completely different format - probably because Microsoft Excel was not developed until 1978.

Anyway, I thought that you might find it interesting to see a page from November 1973 stats.

View attachment 11821

 

[IanFarquharson]

1961 860,008
1962 1,003,663
1963 1,117,774
1964 1,245,700
1965 1,344,321
1966 1,398,100
1967 1,403,072
1968 1,459,773
1969 1,549,105
1970 1,777,976
1971 2,082,132
1972 2,350,656
1973 2,574,214
1974 2,321,630
1975 2,579,288
1976 2,870,996
1977 2,901,910
1978 3,479,944
1979 3,540,899
1980 4,419,324
1981 4,863,874
1982 5,143,913
1983 5,206,995
1984 6,026,732
1985 6,168,508
1986 7,620,015
1987 8,743,924
1988 9,766,902
1989 10,392,703
1990 10,475,645
1991 10,463,682
1992 12,051,560
1993 13,099,080
1994 14,569,665
1995 14,750,928
1996 14,659,803
1997 15,946,986
1998 17,351,162
1999 17,577,773
2000 18,566,209
2001 19,307,011
2002 18,809,360
2003 19,699,256
2004 21,249,841
2005 22,402,856
2006 22,442,855
2007 22,112,625
2008 21,219,195
2009 18,724,889
2010 17,759,015
2011 18,881,788
2012 19,732,444
2013 20,751,581
2014 21,989,682
2015 23,140,221
2016 25,637,141
2017 27,826,054
2018 28,048,353 - rolling 12m 30.11.18

 

[groobs]

Interesting how Glasgow’s growth is nowhere near

 

[IanFarquharson]

Glasgow had more pax than MAN in 1966 & 1967, now MAN is three times bigger !

 

[IanFarquharson]

 

[Scottie Dog]

Winter 2018 projected figures, based on slots requested, are currently +3.1% for movements and + 7.8% for seats in comparison with Winter 2017 actual numbers.

Summer 2019 provisional numbers show planned movements +15.1% and seats at +19.9% compared with Summer 2018 actuals.

The IATA handback date for Summer slots is 15th January and the EU deadline is 31st January. Hopefully we will soon know exactly what is fact and what is fiction.