Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Scottie Dog]

I'm away from home at the moment and so have limited data access, however the basic stats for December are:

Monthly passengers - 1,956,784
Annual passengers - 28.3m

More details in a few days.

 

[Scottie Dog]

I'm away from home at the moment and so have limited data access, however the basic stats for December are:

Monthly passengers - 1,956,784
Annual passengers - 28.3m

More details in a few days.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Latest update on possible figures:

Winter -
Planned movements +3%
Planned seats +7.8%

Summer 2019
Planned movements +9.6%
Planned seats +15%

IATA slot handback deadline was 15th January
EU slot handback is 31st January

 

[Scottie Dog]

View attachment 11985

 

[IanFarquharson]

December now on CAA

 

[Scottie Dog]

Thank you Ian for the heads up. Unfortunately I'm away in north Cumbria until the weekend but I'll do my best to get my analysis done as soon as possible after that.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Still no computer but here, from a quick glance, are initial figures for Manchester's long-haul routes in December 2018:

Addis Ababa - 1,820
Baghdad - 727 -13%
Muscat - 12,763 +26%
Doha - 33,400 +16%
Jeddah - 10,777 +11%
Abu Dhabi - 32,116 -21%
Dubai - 85,164 -7%
Mumbai - 9,296
Islamabad - 16,637 -1%
Lahore - 4,472 +2%
Beijing - 5,355 -4%
Hong Kong - 17,632 +22%
Singapore - 7,645 +3%
Toronto - 3,661 -14%
Atlanta - 8,796 +54%
Houston - 5,972 +11%
New York JFK - 21,840 +38%
New York Newark - 12,085 +2%
Orlando - 28,707 +1%
Philadelphia - 11,830 +3%
Barbados - 25,139 +8%

Full service resumes at the weekend..

Updated Sunday 27th January - due to family commitments, and the addition of a few new destination airports, it taking a little longer to update the December statistics. They'll be available as soon as possible.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Manchester Statistics - December 2018

Introduction

Back in September 2015 I decided that I should start to correlate statistics for Manchester and use 2005 as a reference point for historical data. My file now consists of 14 years of monthly figures and 484 destinations that have been served from Manchester over that period.

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

Addis Ababa came online in December 2018 with 1,820 passengers. Currently the route is operated via Brussels. Cochin in India appears for the first time with 586 charter passengers and Tirana (Albania) is showing with 124 scheduled passengers, which is rather dubious as this is not a scheduled route. Strangely the CAA report 14,268 passengers to Unknown Destinations. Whilst unknown destinations have appeared in previous reports, the number of monthly passengers has seldom reached 3,400 in previous months. I will be revisiting the information as updates are supplied by the CAA or with Manchester Airport.

Million passenger routes (Rolling annual figures)
Amsterdam - 1,035,637 passengers
Dubai - 1,000,214 passengers

Two domestic statistics are currently missing from the CAA report for December.
Aberdeen has yet to provide figures
Total passengers for this route in December 2017 was 16,379.
Glasgow also has not yet provided figures which, in December 2017 was 3,538.

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics/MAG statistics
Monthly passengers - 1,833,446 +6.73%
Annual Total - 22,934,336 +1.71%
Moving Annual Total - 28,268,598 +1.73%

Monthly Movements - 14,496 +3.39%
Annual Movements - 159,675 -0.98%
Moving Annual Movements - 201,239 -1.17%

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers
View attachment 12107

Top 25 destinations with highest percentage increase.
View attachment 12108

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.
View attachment 12111

Comparison of top 25 destinations - December 2008 versus December 2018
View attachment 12112

Major changes to Domestic traffic
View attachment 12113

Aberdeen & Glasgow have not reported figures for December.

CAA statistics for December are provisional.

Edited 30th January to change reference from Talin to Tirana

 

[Scottie Dog]

Apparently the Tirana passengers were on a Gatwick diversion that terminated at Manchester and were therefore included by the airport in their statistics. Whether this should have been done is debatable as the CAA state: In order to preserve market analysis all identifiable diversions are reallocated to the point of intended operation.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Apparently the Tirana passengers were on a Gatwick diversion that terminated at Manchester and were therefore included by the airport in their statistics. Whether this should have been done is debatable as the CAA state: In order to preserve market analysis all identifiable diversions are reallocated to the point of intended operation.

I've had the same discussion in the BRS and CWL threads down the months. It seems that some diversionary airports do include diverted passengers in their own figures if they leave the aircraft at the diversionary airport. If they simply remain on the aircraft and it then positions on to its original destination with its passengers it appears they are not counted as the diverted airport's own.

Prima facie this is still a contravention of the CAA's statistical note. My own view is if passengers on a flight from airport A to airport B are diverted to airport C and are then taken on to airport B by other means they should be counted as airport C's passengers. Without doubt though airport B will still record them as their own as well because said passengers will eventually return there even if my road from airport C. In those circumstances the passengers are double counted.

As we've said so many times CAA stats are never 100% accurate. They are often glaring errors. I regard the airport passenger number stats as a guide to a trend rather than something that is mathematically and statistically beyond argument.

You only have to look at table 12 3 Domestic Air Passengers Route Analysis By Each Reporting Airport.

This table gives the passenger figures each month for a domestic route as reported by both airports at either end.

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles..._Route_Analysis_by_Each_Reporting_Airport.pdf

In December 2018 the route between Manchester and Belfast Int was shown as carrying 44,351 passengers when reported from the BFS end and 44,073 when reported from the MAN end. Another example that month involving MAN was the EDI route (8,202 from the EDI end and 8,167 from the MAN end). Other MAN routes have similar discrepancies as have routes between other airports. This happens every month. In the many years that I've been studying these CAA stats (yes, I know) I've come across all manner of glaring errors - far worse than the discrepancies I've just highlighted - of which I 've given examples in the past in other threads.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Interesting response there from you TLY and thank you for sharing. I've emailed Manchester's Analysis Manager highlighting the CAA Note 6 relating to data for diverted flights.
It'll be interesting to see what the response is.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Winter 2018 projected figures, based on slots requested, are currently +2.8% for movements and + 7.6% for seats in comparison with Winter 2017 actual numbers.

Summer 2019 provisional numbers show planned movements +5.9% and seats at +9.7% compared with Summer 2018 actuals.

The EU handback deadline of 31st January has now passed

 

[Scottie Dog]

Hopefully the chart below will be of interest to all who read this thread. Data shown is the percentage change from Summer 2018 (End of Season) compared with Summer 2019 (as at 1st February).

View attachment 12130
View attachment 12128

Edited due to previous incorrect figure for FlyErnest

 

[User1007]

Are Flybmi, FlyErnest or Pegasus likely to use those slots? What do the summer movement and seat changes look like without them?

 

[Scottie Dog]

How long is a piece of string? Only time will tell.

Hopefully the summer will at least end up on a positive note.

 

[User1007]

Strangely the CAA report 14,268 passengers to Unknown Destinations. Whilst unknown destinations have appeared in previous reports, the number of monthly passengers has seldom reached 3,400 in previous months. I will be revisiting the information as updates are supplied by the CAA or with Manchester Airport.

Goa had 13530 passengers in December 2017, but is reported as 0 this year. I would suspect that makes up the bulk of the 'unknown destinations '.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Many thanks for that suggestion User1007 and welcome to the group.

It's good to see another member with an interest in statistics.

Scottie Dog

 

[Scottie Dog]

I've updated post #50 due to an error in the data for FlyErnest.
Scottie Dog

 

[mullion]

January figures up by a great 7% again with long haul doing very well incl PEK according to MAG
https://mediacentre.magairports.com/all-mag-airports-grow-in-january-as-long-haul-routes-take-off/
http://www.thebusinessdesk.com/northwest/news/2036879-airport-passenger-numbers-continue-to-soar-2

 

[Scottie Dog]

View attachment 12256