Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[David_itl]

Here we go... now out officially with 25 million passenger mark broken

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co...ester-airport-reaches-25m-passengers-12150224

 

[Dobbo]

Great confirmation of the news, and good to see Scottie Dog's figures highlighting the collapsing market to LHR.

Traffic to other hubs like DUB, CDG, FRA, AMS has increased over the 10 year period - although some of this could be point to point.

 

[Land23R]

Some US Load Factors for Aug. & Sep. with a few qualifications:

New York JFK is a combination of AA, DL and TCX. AA assumes 209 seats on the config. with 28 flat beds in J class on all flights. DL assumes 226 seats in the config with 26 in J class. TCX based on 6 x weekly in both months. The total pax numbers per the CAA will presumably include a few on PIA but I reckon the impact is insignificant.

For AA to ORD, I've assumed August was a mix of B787 and the old config. of 218 seats in the B763. and that September was all B763 but a mix of 218 and 209 seats as both configs were used I believe.

Aug / Sep
JFK / 87% / 83.5%

ORD / 78.2% / 76.1%

PHL / 75.3% / 71.4%

EWR / 87.3% / 87.5%

IAD / 76.3% / 82.4% (only 5 x weekly in Sep)

ATL / 82.3% / 89.1%

MIA / 93.0% / 79.0% (assumed 2 x weekly all Sep)

LAX / 90.3% / 91.9% (assumed 2 x weekly both months)

BOS / 83.7% / (only 1,436 pax. in Sep. not sure when flights stopped)

 

[Scottie Dog]

Manchester Statistics - August 2016 (Part 1)

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown:

Bucharest - December 2012. (I suspect that this might possibly have been football related.)

San Francisco - no data supplied. This may possibly have been 3,254which is reported as 'Unknown' by the CAA. Can anybody confirm the period that Thomas Cook operated the route in 2016?

As a personal observation I am amazed at how well the traffic to Paris has done. Remember there have been numerous French ATC strikes throughout the year, however figures remain strong.

Manchester Statistics - August 2016 (Part 2)

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers

PALMA DE MALLORCA.................................... 135,869
ALICANTE................................................. ...... 98,560
AMSTERDAM.................................................... 91,456
DUBLIN............................................................. 90,135
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............................ 89,699
MALAGA......................................................... ..87,789
DUBAI.............................................................. .81,321
FARO................................................................ .78,833
ORLANDO........................................................ ..66,612
IBIZA................................................................ .60,527
HEATHROW…………………………………………………….........58,179
BARCELONA.................................................... ...53,439
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)..............................53,366
ARRECIFE........................................................ ..48,283
ABU DHABI INTERNATIONAL............................. .44,633
DALAMAN....................................................... ..44,095
CORFU..............................................................39,854
FRANKFURT MAIN........................................... .38,613
NEW YORK (JF KENNEDY)................................ 38,119
MAHON........................................................... .38,109
HERAKLION...................................................... 38,022
PAPHOS............................................................ 37,470
DOHA................................................................33,989
RHODES............................................................33,529
LAS PALMAS......................................................31,666
MUNICH............................................................30,469

Manchester Statistics - August 2016 (Part 3)
Top 50 destinations with highest percentage increase.
Destination......................................Total Pax....Schedule Pax....Charter Pax....Percentage change
KARACHI.......................................... 173............173....................0.................... 424.2424%
VIENNA............................................ 10007........ 10007...............0.................... 176.5893%
MILAN (MALPENSA)........................ 14017........ 14017...............0................... .136.1354%
TEL AVIV.......................................... 6862.......... 6862.................0................... .129.0387%
ISLAMABAD..................................... 25268........ 25268...............0.................. ..110.0066%
ILHA DO SAL C.VERDE..................... 3131.......... 1956................. 1175............ .84.0682%
FUNCHAL........................................ .13453........ 9800.................3653............ .66.68319%
BERGERAC...................................... .1208.......... 1208.................0................. ..64.57766%
BERLIN (SCHONEFELD)................... .10986........ 10986...............0................. ..57.70887%
VALENCIA....................................... .18057........ 17997.............. .60............... .56.71758%
SOUTHAMPTON............................. .5098.......... 5098.................0................. .55.23752%
WARSAW (MODLIN MASOVIA)...... .4999.......... 4999.................0................. .53.57911%
BARCELONA.................................... 53439........ 53334...............105.............. .53.17301%
MADRID........................................... 14963........ 14963............. .0................. .52.93336%
KRAKOW.......................................... 7248.......... 7248............... .0................. .52.07721%
GERONA.......................................... 12635........ .9046...............3589............ 49.42053%
HANOVER........................................ 5250.......... 5250............... 0.................. 48.30509%
SALONIKA........................................ 6642.......... 4788............... 1854............ 47.53443%
KAVALLA.......................................... 2678.......... 1184............... 1494............ 43.82385%
CHANIA............................................ 8235..........3244............... 4991............ 42.91913%
GENEVA........................................... 19286.........19286............. 0................. 42.10139%
MALTA............................................. 25327.........25327............. 0................. 39.95911%
LAS PALMAS.................................... 31666.........22641............. 9025........... 38.23722%
PUNTA CANA................................... 10961........ 0..................... 10961......... 35.38785%
REUS................................................ 17373........ 10601............. 6772........... 35.37754%
ALMERIA.......................................... 12982........ 10025............. 2957........... 35.29964%
GIBRALTAR....................................... 7837..........7837............... 0................. 34.63323%
DUSSELDORF................................... 19761.........19761............. 0................. 34.30067%
NEW YORK (JF KENNEDY)................ 38119......... 38119............ 0..................32.45422%
BILBAO............................................. 5068.......... 5068...............0.................. 32.22019%
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)........... 89699......... 71394............18305......... .31.66826%
ROME (FIUMICINO)......................... 12348......... 11548............ 800............. 31.65583%
BASLE MULHOUSE........................... 9631........... 9631..............0.................. 30.3424%
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)........... 53366......... 53366............0.................. 29.7338%
ALICANTE......................................... 98560........ .90758............ 7802........... 29.37949%
ROME (CIAMPINO).......................... 14655.......... 14655............ 0................ 29.03936%
IRELAND WEST AIRPORT KNOCK ..... 3998........... 3998.............. 0................ 26.88036%
MALAGA........................................... 87789........ .76241............ 11548......... 26.44428%
NEWQUAY ....................................... 7284........... 7284.............. 0................. 26.26105%
PRAGUE............................................ 11886......... 11886............ 0................. 23.76093%
HERAKLION...................................... 38022.......... 23746............ 14276......... 23.58448%
TARBES-LOURDES INTERNATIONAL..1104............ 0.................... 1104.......... 21.45215%
MIKONOS.......................................... 2683........... 2683.............. 0................ 19.13854%
AMSTERDAM.................................... 91456.......... 91456............ 0............... 19.07558%
EINDHOVEN...................................... 7421............ 7421...............0................ 18.77401%
DUBLIN............................................. 90135.......... 89962............. 173............ 18.37595%
BOA VISTA (RABIL)............................ 4112............ 4112...............0................ 18.365%
PORTO SANTO.................................. 1867............ 0..................... 1867.......... 18.01517%
DOHA............................................... 33989........... 33989............ 0................. 17.15497%
SKIATHOS......................................... 11563........... 4965.............. 6598........... 16.86881%

Manchester Statistics - August 2016 (Part 4)

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.

Foreign_airport……..Total_pax……..Total sched pax……Total charter pax……..% change
VIENNA……………………10007……………10007……………………0………………………………..+176.589
BRUSSELS………………..15807……………15807……………………0………………………………..-1406536
PRAGUE…………………..11886……………11886……………………0………………………………..+23.7609
COPENHAGEN………….29356…………..29356……………………0………………………………..+7.76403
HELSINKI…………………….9711…………….9711……………………0….……….……………………-6.86679
PARIS (CDG)………………53366………….53366……………………0………………………………..+29.7338
DUSSELDORF…………….19761………….19761……………………0………………………………..+34.3007
FRANKFURT MAIN…….38613………….38613……………………0………………………………..-2.54903
MUNICH……………………30469………….30469…………………...0….…………………………….+5.49843
HONG KONG……………..10543………….10543…………………..0………………………………..-9.52544
KEFLAVIK…………………….7839……………7839……………………0………………………………..-5.25743
DUBLIN……………………..90135………….89962…………………..173.…………………………..+18.376
MILAN (MALPENSA)….14017………….14017…………………..0………………………………..+136.135
ROME (FIUMICINO)….12348..………..11548…………………..800.…………………………..+31.6558
AMSTERDAM…………… 91456………….91456.………………….0……………………………....+19.0756
ISLAMABAD………………25268..………..25268………………….0…………………………………+110.007
LISBON..…………………..18395…………..18395………………….0……………………..…………+0.3163
DOHA………………………..33989………….33989………………….0………………………………..+17.155
JEDDAH……………………….8074……………8074…………………..0….…………………………….+0.95024
SINGAPORE……………….10450…………..10450………………….0………………………………..-19.5721
MADRID…………………… 14963…………..14963………………….0………………………………..+52.9334
STOCKHOLM (ARN)…..13254…………..13254………………….0………………………………..+14.3572
GENEVA…………………….19286…………..19286………………….0……………………………....+42.1014
ZURICH……………………….9548……………..9548………………….0……………………………….-1.51625
ABU DHABI………………..44633…………..44633………………….0……………………………….-2.95064
DUBAI………………………..81321…………..81321…………………..0………………………………+6.37983
HEATHROW……………….58179…………..58179…………………..0……………………………….-6.31099

Manchester Statistics - August 2016 (Part 5)

Comparison of top 24 destinations - August 2006 versus August 2016

Foreign airport..............................Aug-06...............Aug-16
PALMA DE MALLORCA.................... 127,908................ 135,869
ALICANTE.......................................... 76,179.................. 98,560
AMSTERDAM.................................... 76,805.................. 91,456
DUBLIN.............................................. 76,143................. 90,135
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 68,125................. 89,699
MALAGA............................................ 69,429................. 87,789
DUBAI................................................ 76,444................. 81,321
FARO........................................ .........68,751................. 78,833
ORLANDO.......................................... 65,859................. 66,612
IBIZA.................................................. 53,969................. 60,527
HEATHROW....................................... 62,098................. 58,179
BARCELONA....................................... 34,888................. 53,439
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 41,135............ ....53,366
ARRECIFE........................................... 42,169................. 48,283
ABU DHABI INTERNATIONAL............. 45,990................. 44,633
DALAMAN.......................................... 85,032................. 44,095
CORFU............................................... 37,369................. 39,854
FRANKFURT MAIN............................. 39,623................. 38,613
NEW YORK (JF KENNEDY).................. 28,779................. 38,119
MAHON............................................. 33,910................. 38,109
HERAKLION........................................ 30,766................. 38,022
PAPHOS............................................. 33,244.................. 37,470
DOHA................................................. 29,012................. 33,989
RHODES............................................. 30,092................. 33,529

CAA provisional statistics for August are missing a large number of domestic destinations.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Manchester Statistics - September 2016 (Part 1)

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown:

Luxembourg - This service returns for the first time since March 2009.

San Francisco - Please ignore my comment on the August file, San Francisco does not start until 2017!

It is a pleasure to see the continued strength of traffic to Newquay, Norwich and Southampton.

Finally, has anybody noticed the sudden rapid increase in passenger throughput to Islamabad? The highest monthly figure was 23,742 in March 2008 but had dropped to 9,828 in June of this year. Is this the Shaheen Air influence, although they did start operations in March?


Manchester Statistics - September 2016 (Part 2)

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers

PALMA DE MALLORCA........................ 110468
ALICANTE........................................... 91305
AMSTERDAM...................................... 86235
MALAGA............................................. 82211
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA).............. 81974
DUBAI.................................................78426
DUBLIN...............................................77996
FARO...................................................64924
HEATHROW........................................ .60867
IBIZA...................................................52491
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE).............. 50567
BARCELONA........................................ 48311
ORLANDO........................................... 46618
ARRECIFE............................................43591
DALAMAN........................................... 38243
ABU DHABI INTERNATIONAL............... 36192
FRANKFURT MAIN.............................. 36113
PAPHOS............................................. 34807
NEW YORK (JF KENNEDY)....................34284
MAHON...............................................33386
MUNICH..............................................33314
CORFU................................................32156
COPENHAGEN..................................... 30980
DOHA..................................................30085
LAS PALMAS........................................ 30079


Manchester Statistics - September 2016 (Part 3)

Top 50 destinations with highest percentage increase.

Destination......................................Total Pax....Schedule Pax....Charter Pax....Percentage change
KARACHI........................................... 430.............. 430...................... 0...................... 1854.545
BERGERAC........................................ 534.............. 534...................... 0...................... 399.0654
BERLIN (SCHONEFELD)..................... 20049.......... 20049.................. 0...................... 208.7311
MILAN (MALPENSA)......................... .17321.......... 17321.................. 0...................... 180.4566
TEL AVIV........................................... 6374............ 6374.................... 0...................... 148.1121
ISLAMABAD...................................... 22445.......... 22445.................. 0...................... 131.4872
BASTIA............................................. 1074............ 1074.................... 0...................... 128.5106
KAVALLA........................................... 2778............ 1529.................... 1249................ 126.7755
FUNCHAL.......................................... 12371.......... 8853.................... 3518................ 83.05712
ALMERIA.......................................... .13978.......... 10653.................. 3325................ 75.49278
SALONIKA......................................... 5847............ 4352.................... 1495................ 64.10328
VALENCIA......................................... 4634............ 4634.................... 0...................... 61.23869
WARSAW (MODLIN MASOVIA).......... 4541............ 4541.................... 0...................... 59.61336
ILHA DO SAL C.VERDE...................... 3119............ 1941.................... 1178................ 58.40528
LAS PALMAS..................................... 30079.......... 21250.................. 8829................ 57.4075
KRAKOW........................................... 7088............ 7088.................... 0...................... 53.2872
BARCELONA..................................... .48311.......... 48311.................. 0...................... 51.47363
PRAGUE............................................ 13024......... 13024................... 0...................... 49.49495
PUNTA CANA.................................... .11019.......... 0.......................... 11019.............. 47.6484
SOUTHAMPTON................................. 18391.......... 18391.................. 0...................... 46.16913
GIBRALTAR....................................... .7767............ 7767.................... 0...................... 42.27881
VIENNA............................................. .9635............ 9635................... 0...................... 39.77949
ALGHERO (FERTILIA)......................... .1708............ 0......................... 1708................ 38.07599
ROME (FIUMICINO)........................... .11632.......... 11017.................. 615.................. 36.03087
MALTA.............................................. ..23753.......... 23753.................. 0...................... 34.68474
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 50567.......... 50169.................. 398.................. 32.7183
ALICANTE......................................... ..91305.......... 83881.................. 7424................ 32.00659
BASLE MULHOUSE.............................. 8845............ 8845.................... 0...................... 30.99822
IRELAND WEST AIRPORT KNOCK ....... 3093............ 3093..................... 0..................... 30.94835
DUBROVNIK..................................... .10806.......... 10806.................. 0...................... 30.85493
MADRID........................................... .13607.......... 13607.................. 0...................... 30.34773
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 81974.......... 65134.................. 16840.............. 30.09475
MALAGA........................................... .82211.......... 70595................. 11616.............. 29.78498
STOCKHOLM (ARLANDA)................... 12836.......... 12836.................. 0...................... 29.70897
JERSEY.............................................. 5696............ 5696.................... 0...................... 28.02877
SKIATHOS......................................... 11833.......... 5251.................... 6582................ 27.99351
ROME (CIAMPINO)............................ 13707.......... 13707.................. 0...................... 27.02252
HANOVER........................................... 5291............ 5291................... 0...................... 26.36733
BILBAO.............................................. 4614............ 4614.................... 0...................... 23.50107
SANTA CRUZ DE LA PALMA................. 1851............ 0.......................... 1851................ 23.23569
REUS................................................. 16501.......... 9926.................... 6575................ 22.09397
NEW YORK (JF KENNEDY)................. ..34284.......... 34284.................. 0...................... 22.01146
EINDHOVEN....................................... 6540............ 6540.................... 0...................... 21.60655
CORFU............................................... 32156......... 20966.................. 11190............... 21.124
DOHA................................................ 30085...........30085.................. 0...................... 20.16696
FARO................................................. 64924.......... 57224.................. 7700................ 19.0436
CHANIA............................................. 7540............ 2901.................... 4639................ 18.68409
GERONA............................................ 9961............ 6935.................... 3026................ 18.11929
NEWQUAY...........................................6124............ 6124.................... 0...................... 18.01889
BURGAS............................................ 14716.......... 5061.................... 9655................ 17.96393


Manchester Statistics - September 2016 (Part 4)

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.

Foreign_airport……..Total_pax……..Total sched pax……Total charter pax……..% change
VIENNA………………......……..9635……………..9635……………..............………0………………………………..+39.779
BRUSSELS………………........18016……………18016………….............…………0………………………………..-0.7328
PRAGUE………………….........13024……………13024………………….............…0………………………………..+49.495
COPENHAGEN…………........30980…………..30980………………….............…0………………………………..+16.791
HELSINKI…………………….....9712…….……….9712…………………...............…0….……….……………………+0.8031
PARIS (CDG)……………....…50567…….…….50169…………………….............398..…………………………..+32.718
DUSSELDORF……………......18278…….…….17991………………….............…287.…………………………..+8.8948
FRANKFURT MAIN…….......36113…….…….36113............……………………0………………………………..+2.7894
MUNICH………………….......…33314…….…….33314……………............……...0….…………………………….+17.262
HONG KONG…………….......10028……….….10028……………….............…..0………………………………..+0.3904
KEFLAVIK…………………….....9294…………..…9294…..............…………………0………………………………..+13.563
DUBLIN……………………........77996……….….77660……............……………..336.…………………………..+10.999
MILAN (MALPENSA)….......17321…………..17321…............………………..0………………………………..+180.46
ROME (FIUMICINO)….......11632..………...11017…...........………………..615.…………………………..+36.031
AMSTERDAM……………........86235…………..86102............………………….133.……………………….....+12.969
ISLAMABAD……………….......22445..………...22445……............…………….0…………………………………+131.49
LISBON......……………………..19412…………...19412............………………….0……………………..…………+6.3788
DOHA………......………………..30085…………..30085.............………………….0………………………………..+20.167
JEDDAH…………....…………….9002………..……9002….............………………..0….…………………………….+17.198
SINGAPORE………....…………9103…………....9103…...............……………….0………………………………..-19.335
MADRID…………………….......13607…………..13607…............……………….0………………………………...+30.348
STOCKHOLM (ARN)….......12836…………..12836…............……………….0………………………………...+29.709
GENEVA…………………….......14780…………..14780…............……………….0……………………………......+16.022
ZURICH……………………….....8855……………..8855……..............…………….0………………………………...-2.3058
ABU DHABI……………….......36192…………..36192…............……………….0………………………………...-7.8685
DUBAI……………………….......78426…………..78426……………...........……..0……………………………..…+8.7076
HEATHROW……………….......60867…………..60867……………...........……..0………………………………...-1.9413


Manchester Statistics - September 2016 (Part 5)

Comparison of top 24 destinations - September 2006 versus September 2016

Foreign airport..............................Sep-06...............Sep-16
PALMA DE MALLORCA........................ 109,622.............. 110,468
ALICANTE............................................ 69,167................. 91,305
AMSTERDAM...................................... 76,335................. 86,235
MALAGA............................................. 63,344................. 82,211
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA).............. 63,011................. 81,974
DUBAI................................................. 72,144................. 78,426
DUBLIN............................................... 70,267................. 77,996
FARO................................................... 54,538................. 64,924
HEATHROW.......................................... 62,072................. 60,867
IBIZA................................................... 44,774................. 52,491
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............... 38,101................. 50,567
BARCELONA......................................... 31,894................. 48,311
ORLANDO............................................ 43,208................. 46,618
ARRECIFE............................................ 37,840................. 43,591
DALAMAN............................................ 70,760................. 38,243
ABU DHABI INTERNATIONAL................ 39,283................. 36,192
FRANKFURT MAIN................................ 35,133................. 36,113
PAPHOS............................................... 31,956................. 34,807
NEW YORK (JF KENNEDY).................... 28,099................. 34,284
MAHON............................................... 29,979................. 33,386
MUNICH.............................................. 28,410................. 33,314
CORFU................................................ 26,548.................. 32,156
COPENHAGEN...................................... 26,526.................. 30,980
DOHA.................................................. 25,036................. 30,085
LAS PALMAS......................................... 19,109................. 30,079
HERAKLION.......................................... 30,058................. 29,980

CAA provisional statistics for September are missing a large number of domestic destinations.

These file will be updated when available.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Having just finished posting my version of the September statistics I would now ask for your comments and any suggestions to either improve or add to the data provided.

Please feel free to PM me, to save space on the forum, if you would prefer.

Scottie Dog.

 

[Land23R]

The 10 year comparison is particularly interesting to me with a mix of destinations that have seen significant increases (notably a few of the Spanish destinations), some more modest, others fairly static and a few reductions (Dalaman and more surprisingly Abu Dhabi).

 

[David_itl]

Cheers SD for the hardwork in putting the info out there for all of us to look at. We could say number crunching at it's finest.

 

[Land23R]

October 2016 stats for MAN.

These are now available on the MAG web site but not MAN.
I can't get the link to work (probably me) but an 11.8% increase in pax in the month and over 14% in freight.
Just short of 25.1m in the 12 months. Very impressive.

Oh, may work now.
http://www.magworld.co.uk/magweb.nsf/AttachmentsByTitle/Investor_Traffic_Stats_Oct16/$FILE/MAG+-+Traffic+Statistics+-+October+2016+(1).pdf

 

[Scottie Dog]

MAG Stats are finally updated and include November .

October
Passengers including transit 25,166,261 + 9.21%
Freight 110,424 tonnes + 7.90%

November
Passengers including transit 25,398,801 + 9.81%
Freight 111,789 tonnes + 8.41%

 

[User001]

Freight doing well at the moment all things considering.

 

[Scottie Dog]

I forgot to give the actual monthly increase, rather than the moving totals:

November
Passengers including transit - 1,712,291 + 15.72%
Freight 10,757 tonnes - + 14.55%

 

[User001]

Not a bad increase. To still be handling 1.7 million in November is pretty decent too!

 

[Dobbo]

Good numbers.

Strong show in December might tip MAN over 25.5m

 

[Scottie Dog]

CAA stats for October have been published, however Manchester is one of 25 airports that have, as yet, not reported for the month.

As soon as data is available I will start to provide my monthly update.

 

[Land23R]

Just a couple of stats from our recent Florida holiday flying VS/DL via ATL.

Out on a Monday, there were 252 pax on VS109 (266 seats), and I can assure you that some of the 14 empty seats were in economy. So, 94% LF.

The return departing Thurs evening was a little quieter but still carried 234 pax - about 87% is that?
P/E was practically full with only a couple of empty seats and as Business disembarked first I saw at least 20 getting off.

I think it was User in an earlier post that referred to the relatively high premium config. in the VS A330, and if these loads were typical it helps back up the claim that MAN can now support reasonable premium traffic. Note that this does not just mean business travel. Plenty of retired people are prepared to pay more for extra comfort - even we managed P/E on the return.

 

[ethanegcc]

This is great news and I think VS's A333s are the perfect mix between Business/PE and Economy for MAN. Good to hear there are good loads on the route.

 

[David_itl]

Confidently zeroing in on a very precise 640,125 passengers for the festive period

http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/artic...ojects-22-passenger-surge-over-festive-period

 

[User001]

The figure will be based on booked tickets so far.

 

[David_itl]

Just wonder why they didn't say either "over 600,000 passengers" or "around 650,000 passengers". Both have the advantage of being round figures.

With the increase over that period being reported as 22%, I wonder what the December passenger increase will be.. 10% to 15%?