Potential Routes

[mathers_wales_uk]

Personally the only way I can see EasyJet operating into Cardiff is if Bristol airport was closed.

EasyJet are happy with Bristol Airport and I believe are looking to expand further in Summer 2018. With so many aircraft and such a big brand they know that people of South Wales are more than happy to travel to help fill those aircraft.

Ryanair on the other hand are more easily swayed. I honestly believe that if APD were devolved to Wales then Ryanair would highly likely close their Bristol base and move the aircraft to Cardiff.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BHX followers have been clamouring for an easyJet base, even more so now that Monarch has gone. It's long been a surprise to me that easyJet has ignored BHX except for a couple of routes from other bases.

As for CWL, I agree with mathers that in the short term at least easyJet would be extremely unlikely to open a CWL base. Who knows what might be the case in the longer term? Aviation is such a restless industry.

I'd be surprised if Ryanair pulled out of BRS completely in the event of APD being devolved to Wales. Ryanair is always voluble in its opposition to APD and similar government taxes and likes to make a big thing of 'rewarding' countries that abolish or significantly reduce these taxes, as it did with Ireland a few years ago. That being so I am confident that they would make some sort of 'statement' by upping their game substantially at CWL.

However, would the abolition of the short haul APD rate be enough to turn their backs on a wealthy area of the UK knowing that their absence would be quickly replaced by easyJet growing still further or someone like Jet2 stepping in who would take some of their erstwhile BRS customers? CWL has a smaller and generally less prosperous catchment than BRS and if Ryanair ceased to fly from Lulsgate they would need to be certain that a large proportion of their current BRS 'West Country' passengers would use a CWL offering. Furthermore, those in Devon and Cornwall who use Ryanair at BRS would be highly unlikely to travel to CWL to fly from there.

 

[Jerry]

Personally i'd be highly surprised if Easyjet did setup a base at CWL but if they did then they could actually complement each other if you look at how CWL is growing and especially the Vueling routes and Flybe's Portugal and Italy routes then that is still a lot of passengers that Easyjet is missing out of by not basing at CWL, in the end there is a growing market at the moment of £1.4 million passengers a year at CWL and none of them are using Easyjet, granted not all would use them but a significant amount would plus i think if they did base they'd get all of Thomas Cooks passengers as i don't think they would base if Easyjet were at CWL they'd use them like they do at EDI. Easyjet base at both Stansted (6 or 7 aircraft) and Southend (3 aircraft) in Essex and they both cover the same catchment area so it would not be inconceivable for something similar at BRS and CWL. 3 A319s like at SEN would be a good fit for CWL.
I don't think Ryanair would shift their BRS base but i do think they would open a base but i honestly don't see anything stopping Ryanair right now, both TCX and TUI have successful operations both sides of the channel and i can't see why Ryanair or Easyjet can't either.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Personally i'd be highly surprised if Easyjet did setup a base at CWL but if they did then they could actually complement each other if you look at how CWL is growing and especially the Vueling routes and Flybe's Portugal and Italy routes then that is still a lot of passengers that Easyjet is missing out of by not basing at CWL, in the end there is a growing market at the moment of £1.4 million passengers a year at CWL and none of them are using Easyjet, granted not all would use them but a significant amount would plus i think if they did base they'd get all of Thomas Cooks passengers as i don't think they would base if Easyjet were at CWL they'd use them like they do at EDI. Easyjet base at both Stansted (6 or 7 aircraft) and Southend (3 aircraft) in Essex and they both cover the same catchment area so it would not be inconceivable for something similar at BRS and CWL. 3 A319s like at SEN would be a good fit for CWL.
I don't think Ryanair would shift their BRS base but i do think they would open a base but i honestly don't see anything stopping Ryanair right now, both TCX and TUI have successful operations both sides of the channel and i can't see why Ryanair or Easyjet can't either.

Thomas Cook might not leave CWL if easyJet arrived. I don’t necessarily see Thomas Cook as easyJet’s particular competition at CWL either.

If easyJet did set up a presence they would be competing with Vueling, Flybe, TUI, Thomas Cook and possibly Ryanair (probably if APD is devolved). That’s a lot of competition for an airport handling fewer than 2 mppa. BHX, EMA and LBA have no easyJet base and they are considerably busier than CWL, especially BHX where easyJet’s absence (as a base) has perplexed many watchers.

Unless easyJet was to treat CWL purely as a sunshine route airport they would also be looking at some business routes. That would likely include EDI, Belfast and GLA, as well as CDG and possibly Rome. Where would that leave Flybe? They couldn’t compete with easyJet on the same routes. They found that out at BRS a decade ago.

Flybe’s predicament would be no concern of easyJet of course although it might concern CWL and its owners in that Flybe might pull out altogether and not even operate current routes that easyJet wasn’t interested in.

It’s likely that CWL spoke to easyJet and other airlines before they ultimately agreed a deal with Flybe.

I have no doubt that on certain routes easyJet would enjoy high loads and, if they calculated correctly, acceptable yields, as they would at airports such as EXT and BOU. But for the complete package is there the critical mass to provide the economy of scale where there could be four or five airlines looking at the same routes (AGP, ALC, PMI for starters)?

If Ryanair turned up with a base does CWL really have a big enough catchment to support both them and easyJet assuming both airlines set up reasonably-sized networks? The Ryanair possibility/probability is something that easyJet would no doubt take into its calculations.

My gut instinct is that CWL doesn’t but my mind is rarely closed to counter arguments on any subject, including this one.

 

[Jerry]

Thomas Cook might not leave CWL if easyJet arrived. I don’t necessarily see Thomas Cook as easyJet’s particular competition at CWL either.

It would be more like Thomas Cook Airlines not basing an aircraft because Thomas Cook holidays are using Easyjet flights for their packages. Like they do at EDI and they did with Monarch at LBA. In the end TCXs CWL base is i believe their only seasonal base and of course not a TCX aircraft so for them it might make more sense just to use Easyjet's flights and not go to the trouble of leasing an aircraft just for CWL.

Unless easyJet was to treat CWL purely as a sunshine route airport they would also be looking at some business routes. That would likely include EDI, Belfast and GLA, as well as CDG and possibly Rome. Where would that leave Flybe? They couldn’t compete with easyJet on the same routes. They found that out at BRS a decade ago.

I'd have thought they would look at CWL more as a sunshine airport. 2 daily A320s/A319s to cities like EDI and BHD would be to much capacity more than likely. The aircraft Flybe have are more suitable for that from an airport like CWL. Out of the Flybe routes i'd say that Rome and Faro and maybe Paris would be in EZYs sights at CWL. I suppose the airport would have to way up whether having an Easyjet base would be worth it considering the potential damage it could do to the other airlines, which i suppose isn't what many people think about when they call for it on Facebook probably because they wouldn't care about it.

If Ryanair turned up with a base does CWL really have a big enough catchment to support both them and easyJet assuming both airlines set up reasonably-sized networks? The Ryanair possibility/probability is something that easyJet would no doubt take into its calculations.

My personal opinion is that CWL could sustain Ryanair and Easyjet or Vueling and Easyjet or Vueling and Ryanair but i don't think that it could sustain all 3. There would be too much capacity for it's catchment area and 1 one of them would have to give and that would probably be Vueling.
In the long term the likelihood of an EZY base is very remote even if Wales got APD devolved i'd still be surprised if they turned up.
In the long run i suppose the airport will need to concentrate on getting Thomas Cook to base all year round, Flybe to continue to base aircraft and expand their network, Vueling to add more frequencies and hopefully more routes, TUI to do the same as Vueling, attract a North American carrier/routes and try and persuade Ryanair to base. It may be that for CWL Ryanair would be the better option as they may well have less of an effect on it's current airlines.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Never going to happen. BRS is one of EZYs biggest bases and will grow to 16 aircraft very soon. Anyone from Wales that wants to fly easy Will simply continue on the M4 to BRS.

 

[Jerry]

Never going to happen. BRS is one of EZYs biggest bases and will grow to 16 aircraft very soon. Anyone from Wales that wants to fly easy Will simply continue on the M4 to BRS.

But why will it never happen? MAN is one of EZYs biggest bases yet they operate LPL. Same catchment areas so they obviously don't mind overlapping. Plus what do they do when BRS hits the 10 million passenger mark. How will they keep expanding in the area then?
And also what does that say of their attitude or view of Wales itself in not having it as a destination?

 

[Coathanger16]

But why will it never happen? MAN is one of EZYs biggest bases yet they operate LPL. Same catchment areas so they obviously don't mind overlapping. Plus what do they do when BRS hits the 10 million passenger mark. How will they keep expanding in the area then?
And also what does that say of their attitude or view of Wales itself in not having it as a destination?

I think this comes down to what easyJet deems sufficient demand. Clearly at MAN/LPL they believe there is enough demand across that region to warrant bases at both airports. On the other hand, for now at least, they feel that passengers in South Wales are served well enough by their base at BRS. As for STN/SEN - Luton is actually closer to Stansted than Southend, however all these airports are serving the "London and Home Counties" area. An area which is densely populated and relatively affluent, hence it can sustain multiple bases. I appreciate Bristol is a highly affluent area, but the number of people in that catchment is but a small percentage of that in the London Airports catchment.

I don't mean this to be a snide comment, but if EZY are reluctant to open a base at BHX - an airport whose catchment is more isolated from EZY's other bases than CWL is (CWL - BRS is 28 miles, BHX - MAN (closest EZY base) is 67 miles) - I don't really see why they'd open a base at CWL. The only situation in which I could see them becoming interested is if APD is devolved to Wales and the Welsh Government reduce or scrap it. However even in that case I think Ryanair would expand their presence first. I don't know how many flights they operate, but it seems that TUI operate to a fair number of destinations from CWL. If Ryanair expand their presence as well, is there enough demand to warrant any third based airline, let alone one with an existing large base less than 30 miles away.

Again, I don't mean that to be a put down and I'm not trying to be mean, just realistic. Ryanair already have a presence at CWL so I think a better approach would be to get them to expand their presence rather than adding a new airline to the mix.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

LPL and MAN is a much bigger market. LPL can support itself. CWL would be a risk and would highly likely dilute the BRS flights more than create a new market.
It would add additional cost to the operation rather than having a much more economical base in BRS. BRS will grow to beyond 10m.
Now FR is different. They don't seem as committed to BRS as EZY. But it begs the question, why havent FR setup a bigger Op at CWL if the market was there? FR aren't one to mess around and it's rare you'll see them operate the odd flight like they do at CWL.

 

[Marko1]

Surely if Ryanair thought there was potential from Cardiff would they not already done so . They haven't even launched more than 2 routes to test the waters. I agree that Ryanair doesn't seem as committed to brs as it should be but it does operate some 30 ish routes so that surely is commitment enough. At most I can see a 1-2 aircraft base maybe at Cardiff in the future but with that you probably say goodbye to vueling who be more than welcome at brs I'm sure.

As for easyJet I would say that's very unlikely unless it chooses say a winter Geneva service as it does from boh sou lba bhx and abz. EasyJet have been a big success at brs so I can't seem them wanting to dilute the base. I seem to remember many moons ago cardiff trying to entice ezy in the days before they took over Go to no avail

 

[Jerry]

With Ryaniar is it a case of just keeping a foot in the door as a just in case with APD? Because surely if they wanted to or thought it was profitable they could operate a large amount of routes.

With EZY it may well be that they don't think CWL can be a viable airport for them with BRS so close or they don't think a foot in the door strategy for APD is worth it.

In the long term then it begs the question for CWL is the only LCC airlines they have a chance of attracting, airlines that don't operate out of Bristol?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

But why will it never happen? MAN is one of EZYs biggest bases yet they operate LPL. Same catchment areas so they obviously don't mind overlapping. Plus what do they do when BRS hits the 10 million passenger mark. How will they keep expanding in the area then?
And also what does that say of their attitude or view of Wales itself in not having it as a destination?

I'd be surprised if easyJet has an 'attitude' to Wales any more than Jet2 who don't operate from the country either. If easyJet deemed it to be in the interests of their shareholders to operate they would and might at some point in the future.

Coincidentally, there is speculation today that easyJet might return to LBA with the airport appearing in the airline's drop-down list of destinations. If they do it might just be a resumption of the ski season Geneva service that they axed or perhaps something more wide-ranging.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Do anybody else believe that if APD were devolved to Wales and scrapped then TUI would relocate their longhaul flights from BRS to CWL?

There is certainly huge arguments for it and even possibility of moving some of BHX longhaul too but just wondering peoples thoughts.

 

[Jerry]

I don't think they would but they may look at operating some extra flights from CWL. That's assuming another airline hasn't beaten them to it. Roger Lewis himself said they were in talks with an airline for North America with Florida and NYC the targets.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

It's certainly not out of the question. If anything maybe it could support a BRS and CWL on certain higher demand routes. It would attract passengers that would normally use BHX MAN or LGW.
Although I suspect TCX or even Norwegian would get there first if TUI didn't want to dilute the BRS Flights

 

[Jerry]

Apart from TCX and Norwegian would their be any other candidates? Primera maybe? Would Virgin look at CWL if APD were scrapped? They do operate BFS-MCO.

 

[User001]

Which passengers from MAN would CWL hope to target?

MAN appeals to those from North Wales in terms of the Welsh front. As someone from North Wales born and bred, CWL as a departure point doesn't even register on the scale. Due to time, distance and price, a flight would have to be very significantly cheaper than any MAN/BHX/LPL option before even considering CWL. With fare on VS as low as £249 each way all inc to the US ex-MAN, I just don't ever see a price CWL could offer that would be low enough to feature as an option but also still make a profit.

 

[Tinkerman]

There are many contenders Jerry - And perhaps i'd say that TCX are the early front-runners, perhaps for Summer 2019 or maybe even beyond that.

From a recent trip from CWL, the number of Bristolian accents that i picked up on the aircraft probably filled about 50-60% of the whole aircraft on a trip back from Jersey. There were 95 on the inbound to CWL yesterday evening, and around 105-110 on the outbound on Friday - Excellent figures for this time of year. My point being is that if BE and other airlines can operate services from CWL to destinations that BRS does not have in abundance (JER being one of them - Operated by Blue Islands ATR42's) then there is certainly a large amount of scope for success.

This is something i'm hopeful of for QR's DOH service next year. CWL's Channel Island and ROI baggage belt broke down yesterday evening for the JER inbound, so Swissport handlers were manually carrying luggage up the belt to the internal area of Baggage Reclaim where the actual carousel was going around - Just the system getting the luggage up the slope seemed to fail. Hopefully this can be fixed rather soon since it did not exactly look professional !

Hopefully the investment over the Winter months should see some areas of the terminal completely revamped, departures specifically, gates/boarding areas and hopefully Arrivals.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Many people from South Wales use LGW and MAN. Both just as far to drive. I know a lot of people have taken the drive to LTN, STN, BHX, MAN and LGW simply because the price was Good, and that's short haul as well as long haul. There's a level of leakage that CWL should be able to tap into and even provide an alternative to the Midlands for those from Mid Wales if the links were better.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Do anybody else believe that if APD were devolved to Wales and scrapped then TUI would relocate their longhaul flights from BRS to CWL?

There is certainly huge arguments for it and even possibility of moving some of BHX longhaul too but just wondering peoples thoughts.

I think it highly likely, in fact a near certainty, that TUI would move their summer long haul flights across the river.

From next April the long haul rate for every passenger over 16 will be £78 for the lowest rate of travel and £156 for the rest (premium economy, business, club, upper, first - whatever an airline calls it). On a TUI flight to Florida or Mexico that would probably amount to over £15,000, depending on how many youngsters were on the flight.

Whether TUI would reduce fares by much or at all is open to question. These flights usually pretty well sell out from wherever they are operated - the key question is the yield which currently seems why they use BRS rather than CWL for the summer transatlantics.

So why would TUI bother to reduce prices when they can simply pocket £15,000 per outbound flight instead of handing it to the Treasury? They would improve their CWL yield at a stroke.

Whilst on the subject of APD devolution, Qatar is more interesting. They could do the same as I suggest that TUI might do and improve their yield without affecting nearby BHX which might be the case if fares from CWL were £78-£156 cheaper across the board. Alternatively, they could reduce fares at CWL by part or the whole of the APD amount to try to pick up more passengers, perhaps from the likes of Etihad and Emirates.

Many people from South Wales use LGW and MAN. Both just as far to drive. I know a lot of people have taken the drive to LTN, STN, BHX, MAN and LGW simply because the price was Good, and that's short haul as well as long haul. There's a level of leakage that CWL should be able to tap into and even provide an alternative to the Midlands for those from Mid Wales if the links were better.

The last CAA airport passenger survey that involved CWL, BRS and BHX was that for 2015. The below figures show the origin or final destination of passengers at the three airports.

CWL (1.158 mppa)

1.075 million Wales
35,000 South West England
5,000 West Midlands

BRS (6.781 mppa)

4.843 million South West England
1.234 million Wales
128,000 West Midlands

BHX (10.180 mppa)

6.516 million West Midlands
473,000 South West
280,000 Wales

Leakage to the London airports from the regions served by these airports - I have included only LHR and LGW although there is some much smaller leakage to STN, LTN and LCY - is as follows:

From Wales 1.211 million
From West Midlands 1.697 million
From South West England 5.146 million

Make of all this what you will but there is clearly scope for alteration of passenger patterns at all the airports.