Potential Routes

[TheLocalYokel]

I remember listening to an interview with Roger Lewis on the radio, and he did say that their ambition was to target a link/links to America. He did say it wouldn't be anything until 2019 at the earliest, so maybe there is some legs in that.

It also would help airline conversations if CWL could keep the Iberia link to MAD. It would help show that there is a 'project' at the airport and it's worth investing in. It also helps convince airlines that there is a market at CWL, and the investment is justified. Airlines leaving after a single season can sometimes leave a sour taste when trying to engage with other airlines to operate. I hope IB stick around though and give next summer another try, brand awareness and marketing is the key; we only have to see how VY is performing now to when it was when they first arrived as an example of that!

You make a valid point about Iberia Express and Madrid, Liam. With the momentum the airport has built up in the past couple of years or so the loss of such an airline and route would be a negative step. I know that's stating the obvious in that the loss of any airline/route at any airport is usually not a positive event, but CWL is trying hard (and succeeding) in showing the world, and especially the airline world, that it is no longer the airport of Abertis days.

I'm not suggesting that Iberia/MAD would be a bellwether if it didn't return but it's certainly something that needs to be avoided if at all possible.

I wonder how Helvetic would have fared had it began its Zurich operation now.

As for the USA, I'd have thought that someone like Norwegian or Primera was more likely than a legacy carrier.

 

[Jerry]

On twitter the airport told me that they were awaiting a decision over Madrid. I wonder if the situation in Barcelona isn't helping because if LEVEL gets transferred to Madrid because of it then slots for routes like Cardiff may be needed by then. Hopefully they'll make the decision soon.

I also wonder with Norwegian and Primera that for the airport it'll be about more than just transatlantic. If the airport is to get to the 3 million passengers target it'll need another based LCC type carrier that can look at leisure routes as well as operating transatlantic. A 3 aircraft Primera Air MAX 9 based or a 3 aircraft MAX 8 Norwegian base could cover that and the bonus for CWL would be they aren't BRS based airlines so the airport could work with them knowing they aren't constantly worrying about their loads and yeilds at BRS.
CWL still has a lot of work to do but at least they now have airlines who are potentially interested in operating to Wales. Hopefully in the next couple of years they'll continue to surprise us!

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

I agree that in order for Cardiff Airport to reach the 3 million passenger mark we would need another low cost/low fare airline.

I struggle personally to see where our transatlantic flights would come from. If your thinking of New York then maybe a US carrier would be more sustainable as they would then offer onward connections. Unless APD is devolved I can't see why TUI would relocate their US flights to Cardiff. It appears TUI are happy with their services from Bristol.

I am a firm believer that we will see a Jet2.com presence either at Cardiff or Bristol. Initially I was thinking this would take place for Summer 2018 but it is more likely to take place in 2019. Norwegian could be a second likely contender as they continue to grow elsewhere at a large rate of knots. A outsider maybe a Vueling base, which I know Cardiff Airport have been trying to entice for some time now. Ryanair don't seem to be interested in increasing their presence.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I think what is starting to be seen in the regions is the rise of low-cost long haul. Legacy US carriers are reducing regional UK flying, and UK Airlines have never really flown across the Atlantic from the regions.
With Airlines like Norwegian, Primera, WOW etc growing, I think what we'll start to see is tie ups with low-cost Airlines in the US, offering connectivity. EI already tie up with Jet Blue. This will put real pressure on the legacy carriers that are already starting to retreat.
My personal opinion is Norwegian and Westjet would be the 2 carriers that would be best fit at CWL. Norwegian could also operate some short haul routes and grow in the Southwest.
I also think its inevitable that Jet2 or Norwegian will soon appear in the Southwest/Wales region for short haul. The question is which would be more beneficial for CWL? Jet2 would not only bring an Airline, but a Tour Operator. Norwegian would be just the Airline, but then it could be used by TUI and Thomas Cook taking seat allocations.

 

[Jerry]

If your thinking of New York then maybe a US carrier would be more sustainable as they would then offer onward connections.

The problem with that is the US3 have withdrawn from the regions and are concentrating on London, Manchester and Scotland. Unless the welsh government provides an incentive then i can't see it happening. Norwegian or Primera would be more likely. I don't think TUI would relocate but i do think they may well expand their winter programme at CWL. They don't seem to be expanding it at BRS in the winter for some reason. Thomas Cook could be a possibility for Florida and maybe even summer Caribbean routes.
I'd be surprised if Vueling opened a base but if CWL did manage to persuade them to then that would be great. Ryanair not offering more is really disappointing and I think it would take either APD reduction or possibly another airoline basing and building CWL up for them to expand at CWL.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Something is definately coming. Whatever it is is being kept very quiet. I'm suspicious of the BRS press release as being something to mask that they have no actual news but may have got wind of something new at CWL.

 

[Tinkerman]

Something is coming, just no timescale unfortunately.

I agree (in part) with what you say there regarding BRS too. If they see a future in Long Haul then expect something significant in the Master Plan coming out shortly.

 

[Marko1]

Yes I smell a bit of a rat here. I think someone is very interested and are toying up either brs or cwl. I hope they don't follow Qatar

 

[Jerry]

Yes I smell a bit of a rat here. I think someone is very interested and are toying up either brs or cwl. I hope they don't follow Qatar

I do hope they follow Qatar! Lol. Whoever it is and whatever routes they bring Bristol will always be the dominant airport in the South West of the UK.

 

[Tinkerman]

Yes I smell a bit of a rat here. I think someone is very interested and are toying up either brs or cwl. I hope they don't follow Qatar

I do hope they follow Qatar! Lol. Whoever it is and whatever routes they bring Bristol will always be the dominant airport in the South West of the UK.

It is certainly one of the most interesting periods of time in CWL and BRS history at the moment.

There’s no way BRS would come out with a statement like that unless they have an airline intent on these routes - Otherwise it would just resemble failure after putting that into the public domain and not securing anything.

On the other hand it could be a double bluff, knowing that another long haul airline is looking at CWL in detail - And that is their response knowing that it’s a lost cause. There’s only so much i can say on a public forum, so lets leave it at that.

 

[Jerry]

It is certainly one of the most interesting periods of time in CWL and BRS history at the moment.

There’s no way BRS would come out with a statement like that unless they have an airline intent on these routes - Otherwise it would just resemble failure after putting that into the public domain and not securing anything.

On the other hand it could be a double bluff, knowing that another long haul airline is looking at CWL in detail - And that is their response knowing that it’s a lost cause. There’s only so much i can say on a public forum, so lets leave it at that.

Plus there is a news item from the BBC about Carwyn Jones saying he'd scrap the long haul version of the tax and they had a consultancy firm look at it. I just posted it in General thread. It does sound like something is ongoing in the background.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I think this press release is all part of BRS trying to get its message across about the major reappraisal of its master plan, which will be going out to public scrutiny and comment in the coming months.

There is very little new in it about BRS's long haul aspirations. They have been after US and ME routes for a number of years and the press release is always a useful way of telling the local public, most of whom don't care a jot about aviation unless they want to fly somewhere or are subject to aircraft noise/traffic congestion.

People like Karin Smyth, Labour MP for the Bristol city constituency nearest the airport, who is by far the most vocal Westminster opponent of APD devolution to Wales will no doubt be making use of the press release at some point.

 

[CraigW92]

I don't think we will see Jet2 here at all unfortunately, I'm led to believe that the days of opening 2 AC bases are over and if there is to be another base then that'll be 4 plus, I couldn't see us maintaining that sort of level without a retrenchment from other airlines, BRS is my bet for the next Jet2 presence, seems to be the perfect kind of fit.

As for long haul, MCO should be the real target in the short term with TCX, with an emphasis on improving short haul routes, Cardiff remains an Important part of the VY schedule so it would be nice to see some growth from them, IBZ and also MLA ( TUI and TCX allocations) seem realistic propositions, Flybe seem to be going along nicely, Debra Barber talked about the desire to open up more European city routes so it'll be interesting to see what develops there

I'd also be dissapointed if MAD was dropped after one season, ORK was given a season to bed in and now that seems to be performing quite well, It's been mentioned on here that a relatively unknown brand needs time to grow

One thing is for sure that things are looking a lot more healthier than they were a few years ago, coupled with the fact airlines are approaching CWL, some interesting times ahead.

 

[Jerry]

I think this press release is all part of BRS trying to get its message across about the major reappraisal of its master plan, which will be going out to public scrutiny and comment in the coming months.

There is very little new in it about BRS's long haul aspirations. They have been after US and ME routes for a number of years and the press release is always a useful way of telling the local public, most of whom don't care a jot about aviation unless they want to fly somewhere or are subject to aircraft noise/traffic congestion.

People like Karin Smyth, Labour MP for the Bristol city constituency nearest the airport, who is by far the most vocal Westminster opponent of APD devolution to Wales will no doubt be making use of the press release at some point.

Well what is interesting is that the Welsh government commissioned aviation consultant's Northpoint to do research about the effects of APD on Bristol and it has questioned the accuracy about York Aviations projections for Bristol airport, Northpoints research was then challenged and verified by Arup.
The report added: “It appears that the basis of the figures are a series of worse case assumptions, which have been compounded together to generate numbers of a completely different order to what we have calculated.

“For example they have assumed large numbers of existing services will be lost, include long haul services that Bristol hopes to attract but don’t yet exit, and use very high elasticities in their calculations.”

It adds: “This report finds that, individually and cumulatively, these assumptions are not credible and in broad terms the actual figures are more likely to be in the order of 100 jobs and £2.5m a year in GVA in terms of domestic and short haul routes and around 500 jobs and £3m GVA per annum associated with long haul services.

“Moreover, it should be noted that this does not represent a net loss to UK Plc, but rather a transfer of a small amount of economic activity form south Wales, much of which has assisted area status.”
Quoted from Wales Online article.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/bristol-airport-nothing-fear-air-13845754
Also discrimination compared to Scotland and Northern Ireland is mentioned as well as harming the welsh economy.

It seems to me they are trying to make the case that it won't harm BRS considering that the demand for air travel is continuing to grow but would benefit the South Wales economy and provide people with more choice to travel from their local area.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It's a bit like a court when the Prosecution produces its expert and the Defence produces its expert and they disagree.

 

[User001]

I don't know where I sit on this APD debate.

On one hand, I say good for CWL, as I believe we do need to at least reduce APD across the board, as at the moment, the rates are very disproportionate to the rest of Europe. If CWL can lead the charge in that, then great.

On the other hand, I disagree with CWL getting 'special status' (and let's be clear, this affects CWL only), as it creates an unfair and anti-competative nature.

The question is, why does CWL deserve this status, but Bristol, not that far away, doesn't?

Can CWL prove that dissolving APD will benefit the airport? Gaining QR while APD is in place shows that on a like for like commercial basis, CWL can already compete on a national scale, as I imagine BRS/NCL/LGW/GLA to name 4 airports would have been negotiating to get a QR service themselves.



The other question/issue it raises for me, is that it's creating an artificial market based on an unfair advantage.

What I mean is that pretty much all UK regional airports will likely be fighting for the same long haul flights. If ANA for example, was to be Looking at adding a 'UK regional point', you can bet your bottom dollar that all large UK regionals will be queuing up to get their case heard.

Along comes CWL and states 'well, come to us, and your pax don't have to pay APD'. And let's imagine ANA go for it. You tell me how that's a fair playing field. No other airport can offer that, and ANA likely only came for that. Airports should be able to compete on their own commercial merit. If you have to have government intervention to suddenly make long haul 'more viable', the question has to be asked 'why wasn't it viable with APD'. Why can BRS get a CUN flight with APD but CWL supposedly can't? For me it's almost a case of allowing selected doping in sports. if one runner has taken performance enhancing drugs when the other runners were not allowed, of course the chances of them winning is higher, but only through an unfair advantage. If there is indeed a long haul operator in the wings currently deciding out of BRS/CWL, keep the field fair, and let the routes be decided on commercial merit, not a sneaky little boost from a local government.

The last question the be asked, should be, who is paying for all of this? Welsh nationals already get free prescriptions, free hospital parking and other benefits, now there could be an APD decrease, where is all this money coming from? If it's the UK pot, then makes even more of a mockery of this system, as its almost like other UK airports giving money to CWL, as well as the passenger counts?!

The end of the day, APD is a NATIONAL issue, and one that needs a national solution. Either all of mainland UK gets it, or no one gets it, that's how it should be.

 

[Bcn_boy]

Can you explain why Scotland and Northern Ireland should be different?

 

[User001]

Scotland shouldn't be any different and I've not said it should be. It's omission of here is purely down to this being a CWL subject on a CWL thread.

I don't agree with Northern Ireland getting it in principle, but, that is a special case in that is shares a land border with a country that has no APD (or next to none) and thus has an even bigger issue with leakage to Ireland.

But we then come to a paradox. Giving CWL special status (and Scotland) then England becomes the Northern Ireland in that it would share land borders with principalities that have lesser APD, and thus in principle, should also gain the discounts in same way NI had.

 

[Jerry]

The other question/issue it raises for me, is that it's creating an artificial market based on an unfair advantage.

Or is it just levelling the playing field more. BRS has a massive advantage over CWL in that it sits in a richer catchment area and also draws off not only CWL's catchment area but EXT's and NQY as well. It's about creating jobs in Wales and giving the Welsh economy a boost by having not only Welsh people flying from Wales but also getting tourists to fly into Wales. It's also more than just about aviation. Wales is a country and has it's own government yet it has a lot less powers than Scotland and Northern Ireland. They both have APD devolved yet Wales doesn't so it could be concieved about fairness in the devolution settlement. It is partly about self determination, Wales is a country so should have the right to decide it's own affairs within the UK.

Why can BRS get a CUN flight with APD but CWL supposedly can't?

CWL did have it's own Cancun and Orlando flights from Thomas Cook using Manchester based aircraft but lost them maybe partly as a result of their expansion at Manchester.

Welsh nationals already get free prescriptions, free hospital parking and other benefits, now there could be an APD decrease, where is all this money coming from?

It will come from the block grant that Wales gets from Westminster.

 

[User001]

Or is it just levelling the playing field more. BRS has a massive advantage over CWL in that it sits in a richer catchment area and also draws off not only CWL's catchment area but EXT's and NQY as well.

That's not levelling the playing field more, it's called business ethics and catchment. The fact that an airport sits better and the 'heart' of a catchment is not called an unfair advantage, it's called right business in the right location.
Put it this way. Tesco builds its supermarket smack bang in the heart of a city with a paid car park. Naturally, it gets lots of custom as there is lots of footfall. Sainsburys then builds its supermarket in the edge of the city, in a less populous area. Naturally, it's footfall is less. It applies to the government to subsidise a drop in its prices by 25%, as well as offer free parking. The customer then come flooding to that supermarket, even if it's going well out of their way. Tell me, is that fair business?

It's about creating jobs in Wales and giving the Welsh economy a boost by having not only Welsh people flying from Wales but also getting tourists to fly into Wales. It's also more than just about aviation. Wales is a country and has it's own government yet it has a lot less powers than Scotland and Northern Ireland. They both have APD devolved yet Wales doesn't so it could be concieved about fairness in the devolution settlement. It is partly about self determination, Wales is a country so should have the right to decide it's own affairs within the UK.

Listen, I am Welsh born and bread. This isn't about Wales as a country at all. It's about South Wales. No, actually, this is about a very centralised area in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport as the benefactors of this. This does not benefit mid Wales and upwards, as those passengers do not use Cardiff airport, and thanks to geography and infrastructure, are unlikely to.

It's a blatant lie that this will benefit all of Wales, but thanks to media, Is probably a lie a lot of people are swallowing.

As a Welshman, I cannot agree that Wales needs to be this seperate entity that needs to make up its own selected rules. It's part of the U.K. So will always need to adhere to general law and thus this whole devolution idea is just a nonsense notion to create more politicians and argue even more about decisions that can be made from one central point, just like England.