Potential Routes

[Jerry]

I thought the tribunal was told that the money wouldn’t be used for routes that BRS already had so I’m not sure how they’ll get the CDG. As far as DOH is concerned I’m not sure pax will be queuing up to book tickets at the moment! At least there are plenty of small regional airports to go for!!

Paris CDG is a known target and it's also a hub for onward connectivity. Air France in particular isn't an airline that BRS has so potentially no conflict there. As for a ME3 route I suspect if the tickets are cheap enough passengers will book. It'll be interesting to see what happens and what routes and airlines Cardiff attracts if it attracts any at all.

 

[CAN&I]

I thought the tribunal was told that the money wouldn’t be used for routes that BRS already had so I’m not sure how they’ll get the CDG.

Thats not correct. The tribunal was told the majority of the route investment funding package would be directed towards long haul routes to North America and the Middle East as well as LCC routes to target cities and hubs of economic interest plus a small number of LCC volume leisure routes. The Tribunal judged this approach would not amount to unfair competition.

Its best to read the full Tribunal judgement for the full picture. A stiff cup of coffee or two is recommened as there's 70-odd pages to digest.

https://www.catribunal.org.uk/sites/cat/files/2026-04/1740121325%20-%20Bristol%20Airport%20v%20Welsh%20Ministers%20-%20Judgment%20%2007%20Apr%202026.pdf

Ive often wondered if the money CWL will be getting will be used on other things, like terminal and infrastructure, which would free up funds from income to be put towards route development on competing routes. Could be a spin put on it.

The subsidy is split into two distinct packages:

• Package 1: non-passenger business development and enhancements including the development of maintenance, repair and overhaul facilities (MRO), construction of aircraft hangars, fixed base operator (FBO) and cargo centre development and various other estate infrastructure upgrades and enhancements, along with the funding of various capital investment projects such as terminal building development and airfield lighting enhancement.

The total amount available under this package is £105.2 million over a 10-year period from April 2025.

• Package 2: commercial passenger air route development including the provision of incentive payments to new and existing airlines in order to expand air routes flying in and out of Cardiff Airport and grow passenger footfall to 2.3 million per annum by the end of 2034, in full accordance to the industry regulatory conditions set out by the Commercial Market Operator Principles.

The total amount available under this package is £100 million, also over a 10-year period from April 2025.

You are spot on in your suggestion that the packages are designed to increase passenger and non-passenger income which will in turn be invested back into the business.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I know route development is a continual thing, but i'm surprised it's expected to be over £10m a year. I would have thought the large majority of that would be required almost immediately to get Airlines in. I don't think CWL will ever see a long line of Airlines queueing at the door, so the key is one or two major airlines basing. Having a base that grows reduces the cost to the Airline and ultimately would require less funding from CWL.

I'm not one to look at things in a negative view, more a realistic view, if the £105m is needed in just 10 years, then questions seriously need to be asked about why so much funding is needed to keep the routes going.
Look at Flybe as an example, a whole load of money thrown at them, just to say "Look at our routes on a lovely big jet"..... which many of which turned out to not be sustainable.

 

[CAN&I]

I know route development is a continual thing, but i'm surprised it's expected to be over £10m a year. I would have thought the large majority of that would be required almost immediately to get Airlines in. I don't think CWL will ever see a long line of Airlines queueing at the door, so the key is one or two major airlines basing. Having a base that grows reduces the cost to the Airline and ultimately would require less funding from CWL.

I'm not one to look at things in a negative view, more a realistic view, if the £105m is needed in just 10 years, then questions seriously need to be asked about why so much funding is needed to keep the routes going.
Look at Flybe as an example, a whole load of money thrown at them, just to say "Look at our routes on a lovely big jet"..... which many of which turned out to not be sustainable.

Its important to remember that the airport hasn't forecasted £100million as being "needed" over 10 years.

The Welsh Government has granted a maximum annual funding of £10million pa available for drawdown based on business case submission to and approval by CIAL. We don't know if this figure was arrived at due to business forecast, available budget or a combination of both. However, what we do know is that the funding is based on an annual "use it or lose it" basis with no deferral options.

Otherwise you are spot on with both points. Not a negative view at all. Just realistic.

The domestic regional airline market has retracted to 4 significant players (easyJet, Ryanair, Jet2 and TUI) and 3 relatively smaller operators (BA City Connect, Aer Lingus Regional and Loganair), not including the bit-part players left over (Aurigny and IOS Skybus).

TUI has already cornered the charter market at CWL, easyJet are dominating the wider LCC market from BRS and BA City Connect are not interested beyond the London to Scotland / Northern Ireland trunk routes. That leaves limted capacity left in the LCC market to play with asides Ryanair, unless CWL can entice a non-UK operator to come in to run European LCC routes. Possible, but difficult in today's market.

Also agree with your point about Flybe. No good throwing money at a "look at us" base built on sand either.

Look what happned once the terms of the 5 year deal was up and the government money started to fall away? Without the money Flybe had to take on the bankrolling of the base plus the leases on the 3 x based aircraft itself which it couldn't sustain. Routes were immediately cut and the base closed in favour of non-based aircraft, just weeks prior to Flybe going to the wall completely. That wasn't just a CWL issue either The smoke and mirrors situation was equaly in place, if not more so, at Southampton, Exeter and Jersey.

The toruble is there is no Flybe-sized challenger airline left in the market asides Loganair which itself seems to be struggling to nail a credible strategy at the moment and operates at the wrong price point for CWL's needs. There's no "start small / build up over time" operators left either.

CWL have been burned by throwing money at unreliable airlines wanting immediate volume in the more recent past so trying to navigate through the market forces involved will be one heck of a challenge.

 

[Red Flyer]

It also rejected Bristol's claim that providing subsidy support to airlines to fly new routes out of Cardiff Airport was uncompetitive. Around half of the £205m has been earmarked to attract new airlines to Cardiff, but not for routes currently operated by Bristol.

Care to explain!!

 

[CAN&I]

It also rejected Bristol's claim that providing subsidy support to airlines to fly new routes out of Cardiff Airport was uncompetitive. Around half of the £205m has been earmarked to attract new airlines to Cardiff, but not for routes currently operated by Bristol.

Care to explain!!

Thats simply not the case.

The subsidy was not designed to attract new airlines simply to offer routes not currently operated by Bristol.

The subsidy was designed to attract the routes we have already stated above.

In its submission, CWL argued that its long haul targets were not currently offered by BRS. It also felt its remaining route targets, most of which were already operated at BRS, did not amount to anti-competitive practice. Its targets were focussed in order to support strategic objectives and not designed to be a wholesale land-grab of the LCC leisure market which BRS specialised in.

The Tribunal agreed with all the above points.

Not sure where you obtained that quote from but if you read the judgement itself very carefully the quote you have offered is not entirely correct and over-simplifies the submissions and the judgement.

https://www.catribunal.org.uk/sites/cat/files/2026-04/1740121325%20-%20Bristol%20Airport%20v%20Welsh%20Ministers%20-%20Judgment%20%2007%20Apr%202026.pdf

 

[Jerry]

Look at Flybe as an example, a whole load of money thrown at them, just to say "Look at our routes on a lovely big jet"..... which many of which turned out to not be sustainable.

Are they going to go down that route again though? If what the government says is to be taken at face value the investment will be in hub routes and routes that can bring in inbound tourism. Ie routes like Toronto or Paris.

 

[CAN&I]

Are they going to go down that route again though? If what the government says is to be taken at face value the investment will be in hub routes and routes that can bring in inbound tourism. Ie routes like Toronto or Paris.

Exactly. We can only hope CIAL / WG have finally learned the harsh lessons after the collapse of Flybe and the false starts from the likes of Wizz and Play. Focussing on strategic routes to Toronto, Paris, New York and Doha alongside a handful of high-value volume routes to places like Palma, Barcelona, Tenerife and Arrecife makes far more sense than a "glamour-hub" of leisure routes that can't compete with the even greater volume at BRS and don't stand up to economic scrutiny beyond heavy financial support.

 

[Jerry]

"Growth was driven predominantly by TUI and Ryanair but other Airlines
had approached the Airport since JB started and discussions and visits
were being established to build relationships for future opportunities"
Good to see that airlines are approaching Cardiff. This is from the minutes of the ACC meeting in December 2025.

https://cardiff-airport.com/cardiffadmin/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Cardiff-Airport-Consultative-Committee-25.12.10.pdf