Random Stuff!!

[aviatorconcorde]

not really, if you want independence you need a plan for all of this stuff which would form part of the agreement splitting Wales from the UK. you can kick some of these things down the road like head of state, currency, central bank etc and still use those of the UK - although it's a funny kind of indepdence if you spend most of the time keeping the institutions of the UK.

it just isn’t going to happen for at least 20 years at the minimum, probably more and possibly never

The first stumbling block is a majority in the Welsh Assembly for it, Labour hold half the seats and with another third sitting with the tories it just isn’t going to happen. Plaid Cymru actually lost a little support at the last election.

Then westminster have to vote on it - now this isn’t a huge issue as they granted one to Scotland before and may well do again. Still, it’s an extra step.

Thirdly a referendum has to be won, which isn’t going to happen for many years yet, the main population centres of Wales are located far too close to the English borders and far too culturally intertwined with the South West and North of England. Many identify as Wales but feel more culturally in line with areas of England.

A lot of the independence movement is just an echo chamber. Of course they are entitled to their views but support has been declining from major highs.

What has also been clear is Mark Drakefords soft independence stance was just an election ploy to draw in Plaid Cymru votes, which actually benefitted the union. He is also very much looking forward to Starmer as PM which I think we may get.

The welsh independence movement will tell you otherwise but looking at the facts and probability it just isn’t going to happen for a long while yet. They seem to get angry and frustrated that Wales isn’t allowed to be content with its place in the UK and world.

Scotland is a different kettle of fish but it looks as though a referendum isn’t going to take place this side of the next general election, by which time I think it’s quite possible we’ll have a Labour party in power with new policies and fresh ideas who will actually make a better case for the union.

I have always been open and honest that there is problems with the current arrangement and that requires change but it isn’t anything that can’t be fixed.

 

[Jerry]

it just isn’t going to happen for at least 20 years at the minimum, probably more and possibly never

You're probably right it probably is going to take 20 years to get the to the point where independence will be possible. There has been a rise in support for independence which didn't translate into a rise in support for Plaid because that rise in support was with Labour voters who didn't change, Labour plays the soft nationalist card well to keep their support hopeful. That's a challenge for Plaid to overcome.

Thirdly a referendum has to be won, which isn’t going to happen for many years yet, the main population centres of Wales are located far too close to the English borders and far too culturally intertwined with the South West and North of England. Many identify as Wales but feel more culturally in line with areas of England.

There wouldn't necessarily need to be a referendum if both governments were in agreement, see Czech Republic and Slovakia as an example of that and yes there are cultural similarities between England and Wales but that doesn't mean either can't be independent countries in the future especially after the UK ends. I don't see a union of just Wales and England working.

They seem to get angry and frustrated that Wales isn’t allowed to be content with its place in the UK and world.

Yes it's very frustrating that a country doesn't want to better itself, help make it's citizens lives better and join the international community and be a normal country like others in the world.

 

[Jerry]

by which time I think it’s quite possible we’ll have a Labour party in power with new policies and fresh ideas who will actually make a better case for the union.

Will they though? If you look at what Starmer has said he'll just go down the mayor route that the Tories have to keep power in Westminster. Irony is as well is that a Labour government in Westminster will be good for Plaid Cymru and it'll be interesting to see if it effects indy support in Wales. Assuming that they get into power in 2024.

 

[KARFA]

There wouldn't necessarily need to be a referendum if both governments were in agreement, see Czech Republic and Slovakia as an example of that and yes there are cultural similarities between England and Wales but that doesn't mean either can't be independent countries in the future especially after the UK ends. I don't see a union of just Wales and England working.

Haha, do you do other jokes?

I have to say you must be desperate if you think Wales would become independent without an explicit referendum on the issue even if Welsh and UK governments were in agreement. I guess the only reason you would want to try and go down that road is if you think you couldn't win a referendum, but if the numbers are 2 to 1 against you perhaps that is your only hope

Yes it's very frustrating that a country doesn't want to better itself, help make it's citizens lives better and join the international community and be a normal country like others in the world.

With due respect, that is your opinion. Plenty of other people in Wales do not believe it would be better to go down the independence route - in fact an overwhelming majority of your fellow Welsh voters believe that atm. You believe they are wrong, and they believe you are wrong.

By all means keep believing and arguing for what you want, but don't present it as if it is a fact that it would be better for those in Wales if it became independent - you still very much have a lot of work to do to win that argument.

 

[Jerry]

Haha, do you do other jokes?

I have to say you must be desperate if you think Wales would become independent without an explicit referendum on the issue even if Welsh and UK governments were in agreement. I guess the only reason you would want to try and go down that road is if you think you couldn't win a referendum, but if the numbers are 2 to 1 against you perhaps that is your only hope

No not a joke, a referendum isn't necessary if both governments agreed to Wales and England ending their union.

With due respect, that is your opinion

Yes it is my opinion and i didn't say it was anyone else's but my opinion.

 

[KARFA]

No not a joke, a referendum isn't necessary if both governments agreed to Wales and England ending their union.

This is just desperate stuff tbh. You are seriously deluded if you think there could be independence without a referendum.

 

[Jerry]

By all means keep believing and arguing for what you want, but don't present it as if it is a fact that it would be better for those in Wales if it became independent - you still very much have a lot of work to do to win that argument.

Why don't you want England to be an independent country? We talk about Scotland and Wales and you're obviously not pro independence for them yet if they became independent that means independence for England. Surely that would be a good thing for England?

 

[KARFA]

Why don't you want England to be an independent country? We talk about Scotland and Wales and you're obviously not pro independence for them yet if they became independent that means independence for England. Surely that would be a good thing for England?

No it wouldn't in my opinion, and there is even less desire for English independence in England than there is for Welsh independence in Wales. Nor do I wish for the UK to be broken up.

 

[Jerry]

This is just desperate stuff tbh. You are seriously deluded if you think there could be independence without a referendum.

No not deluded, many countries around the world have become independent without referendums, many through agreements between governments. The Czech Republic and Slovakia are an example of that. Czechoslovakia was dissolved by Parliament not referendum, so it's possible that could happen with the union of Wales and England not likely but it's still possible.

 

[KARFA]

No not deluded, many countries around the world have become independent without referendums, many through agreements between governments. The Czech Republic and Slovakia are an example of that. Czechoslovakia was dissolved by Parliament not referendum, so it's possible that could happen with the union of Wales and England not likely but it's still possible.

Many must mean something else to you as you can only keep repeating Czech and Slovakia

I am not really in the business of helping those who want Welsh independence, but I will make an exception here. Can I strongly suggest you don't repeat that argument again. Tbh you are going to put more people off independence if go around suggesting you would just push it through without a referendum.

Win your argument, win the majority in a referendum, and then you can get independence. It is how democracy works.

 

[Jerry]

No it wouldn't in my opinion, and there is even less desire for English independence in England than there is for Welsh independence in Wales. Nor do I wish for the UK to be broken

Why? England is a rich country surely it would be fine as an independent country? What benefit does the UK give it? As for the UK instead of being broken how about seeing it instead as being evolved, independent countries working together for common good like many in the world do.

 

[Jerry]

Many must mean something else to you as you can only keep repeating Czech and Slovakia

I am not really in the business of helping those who want Welsh independence, but I will make an exception here. Can I strongly suggest you don't repeat that argument again. Tbh you are going to put more people off independence if go around suggesting you would just push it through without a referendum.

Win your argument, win the majority in a referendum, and then you can get independence. It is how democracy works.

Like i said i don't think it's likely but it is a possible scenario and yes it is democratic because it would be the elected officials that WE elect making the decisions on our behalf.

 

[KARFA]

Like i said i don't think it's likely but it is a possible scenario and yes it is democratic because it would be the elected officials that WE elect making the decisions on our behalf.

 

[Jerry]

Ok i think we'll just have to agree to disagree here. Have a nice day.

 

[KARFA]

I don't think there is a disagreement. We can disagree on whether Wales should be independent, but to suggest it could happen without a referendum is just deluded. Even when nationalists are in a near majority (as in Scotland) they are not remotely suggesting independence without a referendum. It just isn't remotely a possibility and won't happen without one. To go around suggesting otherwise doesn't actually help your cause at all and will put more people off it.

 

[Jerry]

I don't think there is a disagreement. We can disagree on whether Wales should be independent, but to suggest it could happen without a referendum is just deluded. Even when nationalists are in a near majority (as in Scotland) they are not remotely suggesting independence without a referendum. It just isn't remotely a possibility and won't happen without one. To go around suggesting otherwise doesn't actually help your cause at all and will put more people off it.

If both the Westminster government and Welsh government agreed to end the union between England and Wales then independence could happen without a referendum, the likelihood of that happening is practically zero because the chances of Westminster agreeing to let Wales become independent like that is practically zero but the point is that a referendum isn't the only possible road to becoming an independent country, it's probably the most likely road but suggestion that there are other alternative ways to achieve independence isn't delusion.
And talking of referendums it's been over a decade since we had one for more powers for Wales so we're probably going to need another if the Welsh government wants to get more powers out of Westminster!

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Will they though? If you look at what Starmer has said he'll just go down the mayor route that the Tories have to keep power in Westminster. Irony is as well is that a Labour government in Westminster will be good for Plaid Cymru and it'll be interesting to see if it effects indy support in Wales. Assuming that they get into power in 2024.

I think I know the nation cymru article you are referring too. It was essentially a what if.

Nation cymru is the welsh nationalist equivalent of the daily mail - half truths, clickbait, stirring and borderline fake news.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

You're probably right it probably is going to take 20 years to get the to the point where independence will be possible. There has been a rise in support for independence which didn't translate into a rise in support for Plaid because that rise in support was with Labour voters who didn't change, Labour plays the soft nationalist card well to keep their support hopeful. That's a challenge for Plaid to overcome.

There wouldn't necessarily need to be a referendum if both governments were in agreement, see Czech Republic and Slovakia as an example of that and yes there are cultural similarities between England and Wales but that doesn't mean either can't be independent countries in the future especially after the UK ends. I don't see a union of just Wales and England working.

Yes it's very frustrating that a country doesn't want to better itself, help make it's citizens lives better and join the international community and be a normal country like others in the world.

Well i’ll agree with you on one thing, I don’t see a Wales/England union working. I would even have to ask myself if I wanted independence at that point, but I would look to see who is likely to be in power in the assembly, likely an extremely incompetent and far left labour party like there is now.

March 2021 Independence polled as high as 40%. Latest poll was 21%. Support has almost halved and a unionist government returned to the Welsh Assembly. Independence has become a fantasy argument.

And clearly only 21% are frustrated - I for one am quite happy with the way things are, I’m proudly Welsh and like the fact we share a country with 4 other proud nations, to form one big nation. I won’t be reviewing my position unless we are left with just Wales and England.

Welsh Independence, like brexit, is just a tool to stir up division and hate.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Why? England is a rich country surely it would be fine as an independent country? What benefit does the UK give it? As for the UK instead of being broken how about seeing it instead as being evolved, independent countries working together for common good like many in the world do.

Same arguments apply for the EU Surely France and Germany would be fine as an independent country?

 

[Jerry]

Same arguments apply for the EU Surely France and Germany would be fine as an independent country?

They are independent countries.

I think I know the nation cymru article you are referring too. It was essentially a what if.

Nation cymru is the welsh nationalist equivalent of the daily mail - half truths, clickbait, stirring and borderline fake news.

Well you could say that about most news media today.

March 2021 Independence polled as high as 40%. Latest poll was 21%. Support has almost halved and a unionist government returned to the Welsh Assembly. Independence has become a fantasy argument.

That's not quite true, it was 38% with the don't knows taken away and i believe the latest was 29% with the don't knows taken away. Yes it's dropped but it's still higher than it used to be. Overall support has gone up, and i'd have to disagree about it being a fantasy argument.

Welsh Independence, like brexit, is just a tool to stir up division and hate.

Definitely disagree there, independence is about hope for a better future not about division and hate and is nothing like Brexit as it looks to a positive future for Wales and not looking back to the 1950s.

I won’t be reviewing my position unless we are left with just Wales and England.

Interesting that you don't feel the same way towards a union with just England as you do to a union with England with 2 other countries.