Random Stuff!!

[Jerry]

According to a poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times support for Welsh independence stands at 25% but would increase to 28% if Rishi Sunak became UK PM and 30% if Lizz Truss became PM. Would be interesting to know what the result would be for Keir Starmer.

Support for Welsh independence set to rise if Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, poll shows

Support for Welsh independence is set to rise if Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, a new YouGov poll has shown. The poll reported in the Sunday Times showed that support for independence was currently at 25% in Wales but would rise to 28% if Rishi Sunak won the Conservative leadership contest...

nation.cymru

 

[Jerry]

University professor says that water could be the 'oil of Wales' and sold over the border to England

Water could be considered the “oil of Wales” in the future if plans to transport water to drought-stricken parts of England go ahead, an university professor has said. Professor Roger Falconer from Cardiff University told Newyddion S4C that England should “pay for the water”, with the revenue...

nation.cymru

 

[KARFA]

I am sorry, this is just absolutely barmy. The idea that Wales can be some kind of Dubai of Europe tankering water across the world for profit doesn‘t remotely stack up to first scrutiny- and most sane people will understand that. Fine you want independence, but you aren’t going to persuade anyone with fantasy stories like this.

 

[Jerry]

I am sorry, this is just absolutely barmy. The idea that Wales can be some kind of Dubai of Europe tankering water across the world for profit doesn‘t remotely stack up to first scrutiny- and most sane people will understand that. Fine you want independence, but you aren’t going to persuade anyone with fantasy stories like this.

Did you read the article? Or do you not think areas like SE England don't need water despite declaring a drought.

 

[KARFA]

Oh dear. You really believe this could be possible. Yes you might “sell” water to the rest of the UK but the idea this will make Wales a fortune is quite deluded. Name me a state which has made significant revenue selling water to a neighbouring country which is not exactly lacking in rainfall. This is desperate stuff.

 

[Jerry]

Oh dear. You really believe this could be possible. Yes you might “sell” water to the rest of the UK but the idea this will make Wales a fortune is quite deluded. Name me a state which has made significant revenue selling water to a neighbouring country which is not exactly lacking in rainfall. This is desperate stuff.

No it's not desperate stuff it's about Wales having the ability to control its own resources and benefit from them like every country does. Places like the SE of England need those resources, Wales is a source of that resource so why shouldn't it benefit from selling it? As for England not lacking rainfall then why is large parts of it in drought? It's also not so much as to do with the rainfall but lack of facilities to capture that rainfall like reservoirs which haven't been built especially in the SE of England. The article mentions the proposed Abingdon reservoir which hasn't been built. Also mentions a desalination plant on the Thames not in use because the cost is so expensive.

 

[KARFA]

There is a difference between controlling your own resources, and pretending they are going to fill the hole in the finances by pretending you can be like an oil rich state. If your argument is independence is important and more so that any financial argument i respect that, but when it goes in to this fairyland stuff where monet will pour in due to Wales having lots of rainfall it is no longer credible.

I mean even if you accept what your saying is correct, what do you do when you try and charge a lot for the water and England is forced to build the Abingdon reservoir and restart the desalination plant? you are going to be left with a whole lot of nothing. This is really the plan for an independent wales? It is a joke.

 

[Nuffsaid]

Why are you so bothered by this prospect?

 

[Jerry]

I mean even if you accept what your saying is correct, what do you do when you try and charge a lot for the water and England is forced to build the Abingdon reservoir and restart the desalination plant? you are going to be left with a whole lot of nothing. This is really the plan for an independent wales? It is a joke.

So we can only give it too England extremely cheaply then? Even giving it cheaply would probably raise more revenue than it does now.
And no it's not the plan for an independent Wales, it's just one of the things that an independent Wales can do to raise revenue, no different to what any other country does. Sell it's resources to it's neighbours. If they don't want or need that anymore then the country will adapt to that, which is something that countries have done throughout time.

 

[Jerry]

WalesOnline is often quite rightly criticised for it's poor standard of journalism but they do have some decent journalists and the guy who wrote this article is one even though it's not actually a WalesOnline article!

Support for Welsh independence is growing – people are fed up with being forgotten | Will Hayward

As in Scotland, many people have looked at the United Kingdom and decided that it’s simply not working for them, says WalesOnline’s Will Hayward

www.theguardian.com

 

[KARFA]

Interesting spin. You could also accurately state still over 2 out of 3 not in favour of independence.

EDIT: and interestingly after some digging it seems somewhat inaccurate reporting anyway

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf

If there was a referendum tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote?
Should Wales be an independent country?
25% Yes

The 30% comes from this:
Please imagine that Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister. In this scenario, if there was a referendum tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent
country and this was the question, how would you vote?
Should Wales be an independent country?
30% Yes

Also note:
In principle, do you think there should or should not be a referendum on independence for Wales at some point in the next five years?
Should 39%
Should not 49%
Don't know 20%

How pleased or upset would you be if Scotland left the UK and became an independent country?
24% very or mildly pleased
31% wouldn't bother me either way
38% mildly or very upset

Just goes to show what a crappy biased article it is since there is a clear agenda rather than an attempt to report facts.

 

[Jerry]

Interesting spin. You could also accurately state still over 2 out of 3 not in favour of independence.

Yep but that used to be a lot bigger not so long ago. The journalist has done a book about it which should be an interesting read!

 

[KARFA]

Yep but that used to be a lot bigger not so long ago. The journalist has done a book about it which should be an interesting read!

See above, it isn't 30% tho.

I guess if you think that Yes just keeps rising at the same rate perhaps there actually will be a majority by 2100.

 

[Jerry]

See above, it isn't 30% tho.

I guess if you think that Yes just keeps rising at the same rate perhaps there actually will be a majority by 2100.

I believe it's above 30% comes when they take away the don't knows.
Support for independence in Wales has increased significantly in the last 8 years. In 2014 it was 12% Yes 76% No 12% don't know. Still along way to go but going in the right direction at the moment.
Will be interesting to see how support goes when there's a UK Labour government.
It's a shame the pollsters don't ask the same question but about Keir Starmer and not Lizz Truss.

 

[KARFA]

I believe it's above 30% comes when they take away the don't knows.

Not this again. Yes oddly if you keep stripping out other categories, the % of Nos keeps going up. If you take away the Yes people then No is even higher. Crazy right?

I appreciate you are strongly in favour of independence, but resorting to banana republic type electoral analysis is really desperate.

 

[Jerry]

Not this again. Yes oddly if you keep stripping out other categories, the % of Nos keeps going up. If you take away the Yes people then No is even higher. Crazy right?

I appreciate you are strongly in favour of independence, but resorting to banana republic type electoral analysis is really desperate.

Well no it's a recognised technique for predicting how the results of a referendum may look at, it's not something I've personally made up and personally I think the movement shouldn't use them because it risks accusations like you make that we're exaggerating figures etc.
The reality is that support for independence has risen over the last 8 years, support for the union has fallen and more people are undecided both ways. Unionists need to be asking why and come up with solutions if they want to reverse the trend.

 

[geoff]

Independence or not, there is no doubt that Wales has had a very bad deal over the HS debacle, when compared to Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

[Jerry]

Yep the UK government seems to think that people from the north getting to London a little bit faster is a benefit that justifies no barnett consequences despite Wales having some of the poorest rail infrastructure in the whole of Britain.

 

[KARFA]

Well no one from Yorkshire and the north east is getting to London any faster. However, to think it is just about a few people in Birmingham and Manchester getting to London a bit faster shows that you really do not understand why HS2 is needed.

Well no it's a recognised technique for predicting how the results of a referendum may look at, it's not something I've personally made up and personally I think the movement shouldn't use them because it risks accusations like you make that we're exaggerating figures etc.
The reality is that support for independence has risen over the last 8 years, support for the union has fallen and more people are undecided both ways. Unionists need to be asking why and come up with solutions if they want to reverse the trend.

Ok, well I simply don't believe it is, but if you want to play that game and strip out those who will not vote, don't know and refused, then Yes goes from 25 to 32%. However No goes from 53% to 68% So...

 

[Jerry]

Well no one from Yorkshire and the north east is getting to London any faster. However, to think it is just about a few people in Birmingham and Manchester getting to London a bit faster shows that you really do not understand why HS2 is needed.

Not disputing it's need, just the so called benefit to Wales that rules out a Barnett consequence that Scotland and Northern Ireland get that could be invested in Wales own rail network.