Weather & Technical Diversions, Delays & Cancellations

[Coathanger16]

Personally I would rather an airline cancels my flight the day before so that I can make alternative travel arrangements rather than turning up to the airport with the risk of it getting cancelled, by which time if it was cancelled I'd have no time to make alternative travel arrangements and I'd miss the connection.

 

[KARFA]

As far as I am aware Heathrow holds a committee to discuss bad weather events and if they decide to reduce capacity then airlines must reduce services. From what I gather, domestic services are culled first to protect long haul operations but I think this particular decision is taken by the airlines.

There's no way Heathrow would want another day like this...

Yes so in the case of predicted weather which impacts arrivals rates, if there is bad weather forecast NATS provide to HAL a landing rate prediction for the following day broken down by hour. Obviously if that prediction is less than the scheduled demand some action needs to be taken.

My understanding as explained by a friend at LHR who is a senior NATS controller is there are two possible processes:
1. A process called 'HADACAB' - airlines have signed up to this and HAL can force a specified percentage reduction of the schedule across the board. The specific flights to be cancelled is left up to the airlines.
2. There is a non-mandatory process called Demand v Capacity where HAL and NATS inform all the airlines that if nothing is cancelled there will be y delays and a reduction of x% is recommended.

The above is what kicks in usually when there are storms resulting in high winds. To some extent for winds which are mostly headwinds the use of TBS mitigates the reduction in arrival rates, although TBS is not much use if the wind is mostly crosswind. What happens usually is BA and other airlines will plan to cancel some flights. With BA they load the cancellations in at around 4pm on the day before the disrupted day.

However, this is not what has happened today. HAL and NATS have not demanded or asked for a reduction. The snowfall has been at a level where HAL has been able to cope with clearing the areas they are responsible for - so maneuvering areas, taxiways, runways. and NATS has been able to maintain the required arrival rate. After 2010 which that video shows HAL invested a lot of money in new snow clearing equipment to ensure they had more capacity to clear snow.

At LHR each airline is responsible for de-icing their own aircraft. BA do their aircraft themselves using their own people and equipment, other airlines use the usual handling agents.

What has happened today is that BA has decided themselves to reduce their own schedule. BA simply do not have enough people and equipment to de-ice their aircraft fast enough to maintain their full program. You may remember back on 10 December when snow fell and BA did try to maintain the full schedule in the face of some snow which wasn't predicted and the whole day's operation rapidly fell apart since aircraft were constantly waiting to be de-iced thereby blocking stands which then prevented the landing aircraft from using them.

In order to avoid that happening again. BA have decided what level of operation they can run and manage to de-ice and then reduced flights to match that. Typically reductions are targeted at short haul & domestic and those routes with multiple rotations in order to allow some re-booking. BA decided yesterday what they thought they could operate, and what they wanted to cancel and loaded them in to the system around 4pm on Sunday - all the texts and emails notifying customers of cancellations today went out yesterday. BA have just repeated this process today so cancellations for tomorrow were loaded in around 4pm and texts & emails went out to customers on tomorrow's affected flights.

 

[Land23R]

FR442 just diverted in from LPL. Their Wizz flight diverted to BHX.

 

[Trav a la]

KARFA,

Many thanks for that explanation.

Does this mean that there is a distinction between cancelled flights for BA's own reasons (de-icing facilities etc) and NATS/ATC predicted weather problems, where EC261 compensation is being claimed? This obviously could affect a lot of passengers.

 

[KARFA]

KARFA,

Many thanks for that explanation.

Does this mean that there is a distinction between cancelled flights for BA's own reasons (de-icing facilities etc) and NATS/ATC predicted weather problems, where EC261 compensation is being claimed? This obviously could affect a lot of passengers.

Potentially there is a distinction. The law is vague enough on this point that it's arguable both ways. BA's policy is not to pay compensation for those affected in December or so far this year during "snow days". I don't know of anyone who has been successful with a claim and I suspect after the initial denial from BA the only option if you want to pursue is to take a court option (MCOL or CEDR). Duty of care would still apply regardless so hotels and food & drink for affected passengers courtesy of BA.

 

[Trav a la]

Potentially there is a distinction. The law is vague enough on this point that it's arguable both ways. BA's policy is not to pay compensation for those affected in December or so far this year during "snow days". I don't know of anyone who has been successful with a claim and I suspect after the initial denial from BA the only option if you want to pursue is to take a court option (MCOL or CEDR). Duty of care would still apply regardless so hotels and food & drink for affected passengers courtesy of BA.

Many thanks for your reply.

 

[Aceshigh]

Yes great addition the group !

 

[gonetech]

LM578 Do328 G-CCGS returning to MAN due to snow at Norwich.

 

[Land23R]

And 2 recent RYR diversions from LBA: 5044 from Vilnius and 156 from Dublin

 

[David_itl]

LH976 may be coming here. D-AINH FRA-DUB. bunch of flights went to Shannon and a United to Brussels

 

[BlueManc]

Not wanting the usual 'No div' debate but I cant see any NOTAM suggesting no diversions, but DL44 JFK-DUB just been refused by SNN and LGW and about the press the emergency button to get into SNN. We're not mentioned as an alternate.

 

[Land23R]

Yes, I've watched a whole batch of flights diverting to SNN, some for the second time. Not surprised if they are full.
Why not MAN for DL? Good question, but there have been occasions when there has been no notam but MAN have been refusing diversions. If you read the comments on that other forum about handling agents and de-icing equipment at MAN, they might give a clue.

 

[mullion]

Maybe the weather conditions here as in Stockport it is snowing very hard at present and
weather radar shows heavy showers all afternoon

 

[BlueManc]

SAS535 ARN-DUB coming our way. DUB open but braking action maybe not to his/her liking with is kind of strange.

 

[Land23R]

Snow's not always predictable. This morning so far for example, NCL & EDI have escaped lightly despite the forecast while GLA was badly affected. LBA was possibly just outside the amber warning area but has been closed.
Norwich has seen heavy snow and poor vis. but it doesn't seem to have spread inland very to any degree although STN has seen showers.

Oh, yes SAS. Maybe would have been tight on fuel had there been a further delay at DUB. The EK was on approach at DUB a few minutes ago so it can't be too bad.

 

[Aviador]

There's approximately 15cm of lying snow in areas surrounding LBA. We've had blizzard conditions throughout much of the morning.

 

[gonetech]

QR17 hedging his bets holding over the Irish sea mid way between DUB and MAN.
Apron conditions sound quite bad at the moment.

 

[BlueManc]

QR17 and CO682 now on our screens

 

[Land23R]

5 miles east of MAN we've had a very heavy snow shower and it's still snowing. I hope the airport has missed it.

 

[Land23R]

The snow gods deserted MAN. The blizzard-like shower that hit the airport caused a BA diverting here from Scotland to abandon his approach in finals and go to LPL, (presumably the runway was closed), and after what had been fairly quiet on Approach, we suddenly have 7 arrivals in the stacks. I'd not be surprised if a few of those divert but hope not.

Yep, looks like 3 off to LPL and the PIA to BHX. MAN must have had more snow than we did 5 miles to the east where I live. A covering yes, but would a couple of sweeps suffice assuming they were prepared?

Incidentally, I ddn't spot anything diverting from EDI or NCL despite the snow showers there. In fact, EDI took some GLA flights.