Potential Routes

[TheLocalYokel]

I wouldn't rule out a Blue Air presence. I'm not sure about Turin. Larnaca certainly if Cobalt doesn't materialise: maybe Bucharest or even Cluj as a wild card. I read the other day that Blue Air is looking to increase its UK presence.

The snag with eastern Europe is the looming spectre of Brexit. No-one knows, not even the government probably, how things will pan out when the UK finally leaves the EU. It does seem that the country relies heavily on overseas workers for all sorts of jobs, particularly menial ones that the indigenous population seems reluctant to take, as well as skilled workers on the constructions sites that are burgeoning all over the country. So a touch of reality suggests that we shall need as many of them as we can get. The ones we don't want are those who come to live off the gravy train and contribute nothing.

 

[Jerry]

I wouldn't rule out a Blue Air presence. I'm not sure about Turin. Larnaca certainly if Cobalt doesn't materialise: maybe Bucharest or even Cluj as a wild card. I read the other day that Blue Air is looking to increase its UK presence.

Yes they don't seem to be afraid of expansion and they do have a mix of 737 aircraft so could potentially use there smaller 500 version on any Cardiff-Romanian route's. It could be that they believe they could attract some BRS's pax on the Romanian routes. If they base then there would be a lot more options available to them and would be interesting to see how other airlines would react.
In the long term considering how many industries do rely on Eastern European workers there will have to be some sort compromise and consideration of that during the Brexit process. There was a news item which said the Prince William and Princess Catherine would be doing a royal visit to Germany and Poland in July and i've no doubt further European destinations will follow!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BRS only has one Romanian route - a weekly Bucharest started by Ryanair in the current winter season. It's been increased to 2 x daily this summer and next winter so there is either some demand there or Ryanair is taking action to try to ward off competitors whether at BRS or CWL, or even EXT who are after an East European route, although they are looking at Poland.

 

[Jerry]

TheLocalYokel did a post in the CWL Random stuff thread which linked back a post from 2009. Looking at that it made we wonder if any of those routes that were served then that are missing now will ever potentially come back to the airport and if they would be popular again? So i thought i'd list them.
Funchal flown by Thomson, Murcia flown by BMI baby, Almeira flown by BMI baby, Bodrum flown by Thomson and Thomas Cook, Malta flown by Air Malta, Gerona flown by Thomson, Fuerteventura flown by Thomas Cook (i'm guessing this was a lot more regular than it was now as it only seems to be operated in a short period), Sharm el Sheikh flown by Thomson and Antalya flown by Thomas Cook.
Would be good to see some of them back on the departure boards again though Sharm you could definitely rule out many of the others could be good possibilities for the future.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Warning** Lots of figures. If they are not your thing you might feel happier in going to the last two paragraphs, although there are still some figures there but as part of a summary.
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I have no doubt there is a market for some of these routes: Murcia, Malta, Girona, Funchal, more Fuerteventura, plus some other routes that have been flown in the past but not at the moment. It's a case of how constant the market is and the sort of returns an airline would make.

CWL is not alone where people not directly connected with the industry (and that certainly includes me) believe that route A or B or C ought to be tried or brought back or increased in frequency at airport M or N or O because there is a market. One of the snags is that there might be a market but there might be a better one at airport X or Y or Z.

Airlines are not infallible in their route strategy at airports and sometimes call the wrong option, either by beginning a route that then doesn't really work or not starting a route that might, but with the latter no-one ever knows for certain until it is started and if an airline's inclination is that it might be a risk there is a good chance it won't see the light of day.

Looking back at summer 2009 it can be seen that Malaga was operated 9 x weekly by bmi baby, including 3 x daily Sunday; Alicante daily by baby; Palma 8 x weekly by baby, including double daily Tuesday. This is more than Vueling operates on these routes.

A breakdown between charter and scheduled passengers on these routes in 2009 and 2016 suggests that the greater scheduled programme in 2009 was at the expense (percentage-wise) of charter services on the routes, although the difference is only substantial on Palma.

In 2009 Malaga handled 116,000 passengers with 83,000 (71%) of this figure scheduled passengers (baby). In 2016 82,000 used the route with 52,000 (63%) scheduled passengers (Vueling).

In 2009 Alicante handled 109,000 passengers with 71,000 (65%) of this figure scheduled passengers (baby). In 2016 93,000 used the route with 55,000 (59%) scheduled passengers (Vueling).

In 2009 Palma handled 110,000 passengers with 53,000 (48%) of this figure scheduled passengers (baby). In 2016 109,000 used the route with 30,000 (27%) scheduled passengers (Vueling).

In 2009 Edinburgh handled 161,000 passengers (all scheduled) with a total of 25 weekly rotations (13 by Flybe and 12 by baby). In 2016 the total was 94,000 with no baby but with Flybe operating the same number of weekly rotations as in 2009 but with larger aircraft.

In 2009 Glasgow handled 56,000 passengers with 13 weekly rotations. In 2016 the figure was 37,000 with no baby but with Flybe operating less than half the weekly rotations but with larger aircraft. Glasgow had proved problematical for baby almost from the start. They very quickly switched from Glasgow (GLA) to Prestwick (PIK) and then contracted Air Wales to operate the service to PIK on their behalf with ATR 42 aircraft. When Air Wales ceased to trade Flybe eventually picked up the route.

The messages from all this are mixed.

There is undoubtedly unfulfilled summer capacity on Malaga, Alicante and Palma and in the absence of TUI or TCX stepping up their game it would seem the obvious solution is a scheduled carrier: Vueling increasing capacity and/or Ryanair coming on board, or a new entrant altogether such as Jet2 or Monarch. 2009 (the height of the recession) was poor compared with 2008 with 139,000 on Malaga, 151,000 on Alicante and 169,000 on Palma that year which perhaps strengthens thecurrent under capacity argument.

Edinburgh was virtually the same in 2009 as in 2008 but Glasgow had dropped from 84,000 in the previous year. On this basis the 2016 figures for both route might suggest that there is some scope for increase but another daily rotation on EDI and perhaps increasing GLA to 8/9 a week might not be the simple answer that it appears to be.

 

[Jerry]

I do wonder how many of those BMI baby passengers were TCX or TOM passengers which then allowed them to operate other routes like Bodrum? Looking at BRS and TCX book quite a lot of there packages onto EZY flights.
The previous numbers do suggest that certain routes at CWL can sustain more frequencies than the current number. For CWL it's a case of finding an airline that will have the confidence in the airport to operate those routes and make money. Which might be made a little bit easier now Qatar have shown confidence in the airport.

 

[Jerry]

Looking at the Champions league flights and CWL will be exposed to airlines that don't usually operate into CWL.
Aigle Azur Airlines, Air Nostrum, Alitalia, Mistral Air, Blue Panorama, Ernest Airlines, Air Horizont, Czech Airlines, Astra Airlines, Blue Air and Meridiana are airlines we don't really see at CWL so it could give CWL a unique chance to pitch to some new airlines and almost do a demo.
Blue Air has been mentioned before in connection to LCA and they do have a base in Turin and Italy is popular from Wales.
Czech Airlines could be potential for Prague and they do operate A319s which may be more suitable for CWL. Also they would be more known by Czech's so could boost in bound tourism to Wales more than say Flybe could.
Meridiana could be a good candidate for Italian routes especially if the Flybe stop operating jets from CWL. They operate out of Milan, Verona, Rome, Cagliari, Catania, Olbia and Naples so could provide CWL with a good Italian network as well as more awareness among the Italian population than flybe may have. They also have a connection to IAG through codesharing with BA and Iberia and Qatar also own 49% of the airline.
The other airlines aren't real possiblities as many are either small charters or regional airlines, Aigle Azur don't operate to the UK and Alitalia is in trouble as an airline.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Won't do any harm although I suspect that the airport has already been speaking/is still speaking to its target airlines.

 

[Jerry]

Interview in Wales Online with Mike Batt a leading figure in Travel Leaders group in the US believes direct flights to US from Cardiff are viable. He mentions the US3 but unless the Welsh government incentives them I can't see them turning off. A LCC might be more likely in my opinion.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/busine...1265#ICID=Android_WalesOnlineNewsApp_AppShare

 

[superking]

Reading other forums all not going well. The pax loads are good but not using the max yet as delivery waiting and the max they have is tech in edi. Also not certified for etops as stated as well.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I'm not too bothered about a North America scheduled connection from Severnside, whether from CWL or BRS. If it happens it's almost certainly going to be to New York which is fine for those travelling to the New York area.

Otherwise you have to change aircraft at NYC and I see no difference in that to flying to say, Amsterdam or Dublin, and changing aircraft there to reach a US destination other than New York. That of course assumes the carrier is one with connectivity. A LCC would probably be point to point only which would be worse for non-New York travellers in my example.

The same happens in reverse for American travellers coming to the UK.

 

[andrewgreen]

I'm not too bothered about a North America scheduled connection from Severnside, whether from CWL or BRS. If it happens it's almost certainly going to be to New York which is fine for those travelling to the New York area.

Otherwise you have to change aircraft at NYC and I see no difference in that to flying to say, Amsterdam or Dublin, and changing aircraft there to reach a US destination other than New York. That of course assumes the carrier is one with connectivity. A LCC would probably be point to point only which would be worse for non-New York travellers in my example.

The same happens in reverse for American travellers coming to the UK.

I have to disagree with you there LY , Bristol or Cardiff direct to New York around 6 hours or typically 10 to 14 hours via Amsterdam or Dublin .. which would most people pick ?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I have to disagree with you there LY , Bristol or Cardiff direct to New York around 6 hours or typically 10 to 14 hours via Amsterdam or Dublin .. which would most people pick ?

I agree that flying to or from CWL or BRS from or to NYC (JFK or EWR) would be fine. In fact, I said so in my previous post.

My point concerns passengers whose final North American destination or origin is not the New York area but further afield in the USA or Canada. They will have to change aircraft at NYC (assuming the carrier has connectivity - a LCC might not) to proceed between Severnside and say Los Angeles, Phoenix, Atlanta. I see little if any difference in that than from flying from CWL or BRS to AMS, changing aircraft there and flying direct from AMS to Los Angeles etc.

Both options require that change of aircraft and intermediate wait whether the CWL or BRS departure flies first to NYC or AMS. DUB is another option from BRS.

 

[Jerry]

Any New York route from CWL would essentially be point to point for New York. For me unless the flight left pretty late it would mean a long layover for the West Coast. Wheras AMS doesn't have that.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Any New York route from CWL would essentially be point to point for New York. For me unless the flight left pretty late it would mean a long layover for the West Coast. Wheras AMS doesn't have that.

That's fine if there is enough passenger traffic to make point to point New York viable. When CO operated from BRS to EWR from 2005 until 2010 my son (who was Bristol-based) used the route a number of times a year, both on business and for pleasure with his family. He rarely flew to New York itself but changed aircraft at EWR for onward destinations such as Dallas-Fort Worth, Las Vegas, Toronto and others. More often than not though (he was employed at the time by a major US conglomerate) it was a better use of his time to drive to LHR and fly direct from there if he was going to a North American destination other than the New York area.

He has no interest in aviation for its own sake but in conversation he said he was aware that a lot CO passenger on BRS-EWR were interlining at EWR. Although BRS-EWR carried the same sort of average loads that York Aviation said would be sustainable for a CWL-NYC route once worked up to that level (in a study commissioned by the then Wales Assembly which would also have needed to have found a legal way of subsidising the route at £600,000 pa - at 2007 levels - for the first three years of its life), it was not enough to retain the route in the end, albeit a combination of circumstances led to its eventual demise.

My point is that the CO BRS experience suggests that there would not be enough passengers to make a point to point CWL (or BRS)-NYC route sustainable.

I ought to make it clear that I'm not denigrating the idea of a CWL (or BRS)-NYC route. It would be an excellent opportunity. However, I just wonder if it would be viable without interlining at NYC to other parts of North America. If it wouldn't it's operating to a gateway (in this case NYC, ie JFK or EWR) for many passengers in the way that KLM operates to a gateway at AMS from where passengers can fly direct to North American destinations.

You would hope that airlines are far better informed on such things than me. They got it wrong on BRS-EWER, albeit it took them five and a half years to find out and there were contributory circumstances as I suggested earlier.

 

[Jerry]

If CWL does ever get a NYC route then I think it would have to be low frequency 3 to 4 weekly an airline like Norwegian. It couldn't rely on connection traffic because of the strength of AMS as a hub and LHR down the road. It would have to target the leisure market in Wales and the NYC area and the local business community that is travelling just to the NYC area and isn't looking at traveling business class. If you look at MAN Thomas Cook is doing that on a grander scale.

 

[Jerry]

With Roger Lewis mentioning on Radio Wales yesterday that the airport is in discussion with an airline over North America with Florida and NYC the targets and with rumours about Monarch going back into long haul surfacing again then I wonder if Monarch could be contenders for the mystery airline.

 

[jfy1999]

My prime candidate for CWL long haul would be Norwegian.

- their new MAX routes have thus far been outside England, in the regions where APD is likely to be devolved, and if their launches were based on the potential for future APD devolution then one would think they would also be evaluating Wales

- CWL is arguably a better opportunity for Norwegian than many if not all of their current UK MAX routes. Cardiff has no competition (unlike DUB or EDI) and the catchment areas served by BFS, ORK and SNN are all smaller than the Cardiff/Bristol catchment area.

I also thought Primera might be a possibility.

 

[Jerry]

It would be nice to see Norwegian operating there own routes out of CWL. I could see them being some sort of contenders for a NYC route with the MAX I'm not sure they'd launch the likes of MCO with the dreamliner unless they are looking at the regional Florida market and to be fair to Roger Lewis he did say Florida and wasn't city specific but Norwegian do operate Orlando from Gatwick which would be the most obvious route.

 

[Jerry]

Considering they get mentioned a lot on social media by people in connection to CWL i thought I'd ask the question. What chances in the future does CWL have of attracting Easyjet? Whether it be a base or non based routes do people think the airport could be attractive to Easyjet in the future? What could the airport do to attract them?