Potential Routes

[TheLocalYokel]

Looking at Jet2 they are more like TUI with their aircraft utilisation in the winter than say Vueling who are more like Easyjet. If Jet2 did come to Cardiff then i believe the base would be at least 3 to aircraft strong so even if one aircraft was seasonal they'd have to find enough work for at 2 aircraft during the winter even if their programme was limited.
Also i wonder how TUI would react if Jet2 arrived at Cardiff?
The one thing i noticed with Vueling is that except in emergencies TUI and Thomas Cook don't seem to use their flights for their packages. I do wonder if greater cooperation between those 3 could help Vueling to offer more frequency than they are now.

Jet2 don't seem to use their aircraft as intensively as easyJet or Ryanair with 2/3 rotations per day in summer more often the case compared with the 3/4 of easyJet and Ryanair. The latter airlines certainly cut back in winter but Jet2 seems to do so even more.

These seem to be the year-round Jet2 routes at MAN. It's now more of a holiday airline as you suggest. I've highlighted those routes that seem more capital city or business routes although all will have an element of leisure traffic (it's always going to a matter of opinion about the primary nature of a route of course unless there is access to surveys):

Alicante, Budapest, Funchal, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, Málaga, Paphos, Prague, Rome–Fiumicino, Tenerife–South.

LBA also sees Amsterdam, Paris CDG and Krakow (beginning November 18) but Rome and Prague appear to be seasonal there.

These appear to be seasonal routes at MAN with LBA broadly similar:

Almeria, Antalya, Barcelona, Bergerac Bodrum, Kefalonia, Corfu, Dalaman, Dubrovnik, Faro, Geneva, Girona, Grenoble, Heraklion, Ibiza, Kefalonia, Kraków, Kos, Larnaca, Lyon, Malta, Menorca, Murcia, Naples, Nice, Palma de Mallorca, Pisa, Pula, Reus, Rhodes, Salzburg, Split, Thessaloniki, Toulouse, Venice, Verona Zakynthos.

Would there be enough there to keep Jet2 occupied at CWL in winter, bearing in mind the above and that Vueling would be competing on the Costas? Unless Jet2 caused them to pull out.

 

[Marko1]

We have discussed jet2 over on the brs thread many a time and I have no doubt they will come to the southwest uk in the near future. Apparently jet 2 like to start a base with 4 based jets. Is there that much demand at cwl for that style of launch and then you are in the position of affecting vueling , Flybe , tui and tcx. All established carriers . The same would happen at brs although both easyJet and Ryanair have established areas of Europe where there is very little overlap , for example easyJet with Scottish routes and Ryanair with Eastern Europe. If jet 2 was to rock up at brs it would be tui and tcx that would be affected more but I can't see them pulling routes or aircraft

 

[Jerry]

With Jet2 I honestly think their Belfast base would probably a better example of what the route network would look like at CWL.
At Belfast they operate in the winter Salzburg 1 weekly, Verona 1 weekly, Alicante 2 weekly, Fuenteventura 1 weekly, Gran Canaria 1 weekly, Lanzarote 2 weekly, Tenerife South 2 weekly and 1 of charters to New York, Vienna and Prague for Xmas. Looking at that it's more similar to TUI than Vueling. Also Jet2 because they have the slack might be able to put on special flights for the 6 nations as well. In the winter they operate 10 weekly flights from Belfast which is essentially 1 aircraft while this summer the base expands to 4 aircraft.
Looking at those routes they would be a good winter schedule for CWL.

 

[Jerry]

We have discussed jet2 over on the brs thread many a time and I have no doubt they will come to the southwest uk in the near future. Apparently jet 2 like to start a base with 4 based jets. Is there that much demand at cwl for that style of launch and then you are in the position of affecting vueling , Flybe , tui and tcx. All established carriers . The same would happen at brs although both easyJet and Ryanair have established areas of Europe where there is very little overlap , for example easyJet with Scottish routes and Ryanair with Eastern Europe. If jet 2 was to rock up at brs it would be tui and tcx that would be affected more but I can't see them pulling routes or aircraft

Belfast was 3 based aircraft up until recently. I'd imagine that they'd tailor the launch to the airport they are operating out of. If Jet2 did turn up at CWL there may well be a casualty, probably Thomas Cook, but it does depend on the routes operated and compared to 2007 CWL is still lacking in capacity on many Spanish routes. Plus if they lost say Thomas Cook CWL would be losing a seasonal airline for an airline that will base and operate routes year round, i can't see them effecting Flybe or Vueling.
As for Bristol if TUI and Thomas Cook are effected then Easyjet will be effected as both use Easyjet for their packages.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Belfast was 3 based aircraft up until recently. I'd imagine that they'd tailor the launch to the airport they are operating out of. If Jet2 did turn up at CWL there may well be a casualty, probably Thomas Cook, but it does depend on the routes operated and compared to 2007 CWL is still lacking in capacity on many Spanish routes. Plus if they lost say Thomas Cook CWL would be losing a seasonal airline for an airline that will base and operate routes year round, i can't see them effecting Flybe or Vueling.
As for Bristol if TUI and Thomas Cook are effected then Easyjet will be effected as both use Easyjet for their packages.

It's indisputable that CWL had more options and carried more passengers to the Spanish routes in 2007 than it does now, albeit the bulk was in the summer months as it is currently. CWL has never had a problem finding passenger traffic in the summer for this type of route but as with any airport good loads don't necessarily mean acceptable yields to airlines.

It's already been suggested that Vueling might be concerned about the winter in any considerations for a CWL base. Most airports handle many fewer passengers in the winter months but CWL seems to have found the task particularly challenging. That doesn't mean it always will but it needs to find ways to overcome it and at its zenith did boast a better winter record - see later in this post.

2017 provides an illustration of the predicament. In January (the quietest month) CWL handled 65,590 passengers whereas in August (the busiest month) the figure was 182,179, meaning the lowest month carried 36% of the highest month's figure. Contrast this with BRS (this airport has already been mentioned in terms of Jet2) where the January and August 2017 figures were respectively 473,443 and 905,050 meaning the lowest month there carried over 52% of the highest month's figure.

I mentioned a better winter record in the past; 2007 is a case in point. That year is the airport's best calendar year to date for passengers handled (2.094 million). In 2007 January saw 110,736 passengers whilst August had 264,451 (the record calendar month to date), meaning the lowest month carried nearly 42% of the highest month's figure. BRS figures in 2007 were 5.88 million; 316,374; 640,997; over 49%.

This does suggest that there is scope for improving the winter performance.

Incidentally, I doubt that the TUI and TCX seat allocation on easyJet at BRS is a significant proportion of the overall number of seats on offer by easyJet which I suspect will be in the region of 5 million this year.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Does anyone know when summer 2019 holidays are released by the Tour Operators? That could provide answers to the projected growth

 

[Jerry]

Contrast this with BRS (this airport has already been mentioned in terms of Jet2) where the January and August 2017 figures were respectively 473,443 and 905,050 meaning the lowest month there carried over 52% of the highest month's figure.

Difference is though that BRS has 2 LCC airlines (Easyjet and Ryanair) that operate large schedules throughout the winter which includes many flight's to winter sun destinations like the Canaries and 2 charter airlines that operate limited schedules, while CWL only has 1 (Flybe) LCC airline and they don't have the range for many of the destination available from BRS, it's other LCC operates only 2 destinations and 4 weekly flights and 1 charter airline that operates a limited schedule.
I think it shows that CWL lacks that based airline that can cover lots of destinations from Edinburgh and Paris to Tenerife and Lanzarote like Easyjet does at BRS and can cover the winter sun destinations in the winter to increase the numbers during the winter.

The irony is that for summer 18 CWL will see 16 airlines regulary flying passengers into and out of the airport.
BH Air, Blue Islands, Eurowings, Norwegian Air, Freebird, Smartlynx (Thomas Cook), Thomas Cook and Iberia Express are all summer only while Eastern Airways, Enter Air, Flybe, Qatar, KLM Cityhopper, Ryanair, Vueling and TUI are all year round to various degrees. (I know i've taken a little liberty with Enter Air but they are going to be pretty regular visitors and Smartlynx are technically operating on behalf of Thomas Cook so i counted them as separate).

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Difference is though that BRS has 2 LCC airlines (Easyjet and Ryanair) that operate large schedules throughout the winter which includes many flight's to winter sun destinations like the Canaries and 2 charter airlines that operate limited schedules, while CWL only has 1 (Flybe) LCC airline and they don't have the range for many of the destination available from BRS, it's other LCC operates only 2 destinations and 4 weekly flights and 1 charter airline that operates a limited schedule.

Indeed that's the main reason but the question that needs to be asked is why.

 

[Jerry]

Indeed that's the main reason but the question that needs to be asked is why.

I think also part of the reason is that CWLs main sun LCC is Vueling. They are a Spanish carrier yet they don't have any bases in the Canary Islands which are popular winter routes so there is no potential of getting them to operate those routes during the winter when they are popular which would boost the passenger figures depending on the frequencies of course.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

There's a reason winters at CWL are so quiet. The market isn't there. There's room for slight growth, maybe another ski route or two, or canaries route. But this goes back a long time. WW struggled in the winter months.
The Flybe operation, still pretty much utilising a full schedule for the 2 based aircraft is probably the best it's been for a long time and I think they have found a niche that is working in it's current state. The routes they operate fit the aircraft type well. Sadly that aircraft type doesn't have the range for the Canaries.

TCX have shown there's limited package holiday market in the region by operating summer only. TUI have remained consistent in their winter operation. That is going to be the sticking factor for any new Airline, including Jet2.
The scheduled market could be slightly different in that FR could open up Canaries routes, but then what other 2hr flight destination could they operate over the week to support 2 flights a day for a based aircraft that wouldn't dilute the BRS flights.
If anything to prop up the winter figures, I think it would be better if FR were to operate Canaries routes from the Canaries bases, therefore not requiring the complexity of utilising a based aircraft. CWL could have a decent FR operation without even having a based aircraft.
Hopefully BE will have a stronger winter which could lead to increase frequencies or even new routes. They have done well to make a workable schedule.

 

[Jerry]

With reference to a Ryanair base, they wouldn't have to operate an intensive 3 departures a day schedule during the winter. Bournemouth for example is a 1 aircraft base and that operates 9 weekly flights during the winter. If Ryanair wanted to operate a bigger operation they would but like many other airlines they seem quite content sucking passengers and their money out of South and West Wales and the Welsh economy with the exception of 3 flights a week in the summer and 2 in the winter. What would be interesting to know is what would it take to get them and other airlines to operate more flights out of CWL.

 

[superking]

What would be interesting to know is what would it take to get them and other airlines to operate more flights out of CWL.
It don't take a lot to work it out how to get airlines into CWL. It would be nice to see different airlines into CWL but I'm stuck as what routes with out hurting the airlines already operating routes. A lot of routes that not served from CWL has no dout been looked at by airlines. Any airline that would start operations from CWL would want to operate the bucket and spade routes to start with.Airports have to be carefull who they let operate routes with out upsetting airlines already operating them. The only way that airports don't have any say in what routes that can be operated is where there is a high density of population willing to travel.CWL airport is stuck out on a limb,wrong place to have very high numbers of pax. I think CWL has done well with whats going through the doors now compared to about 2 years ago.Lets hope the Qatar service works out and they give CWL a chance of growing the route. Its a big ask thou with a 787 aircraft so hope there is plenty of freight around to make the figures add up.

 

[alphagolf]

Does anyone know when summer 2019 holidays are released by the Tour Operators? That could provide answers to the projected growth

Generally around April time I think

 

[Jerry]

. Any airline that would start operations from CWL would want to operate the bucket and spade routes to start with

And for CWL to grow that will have to happen it just depends on how it does.

As for Qatar Airways i believe they are here for the long term.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

If Ryanair wanted to operate a bigger operation they would but like many other airlines they seem quite content sucking passengers and their money out of South and West Wales and the Welsh economy with the exception of 3 flights a week in the summer and 2 in the winter. What would be interesting to know is what would it take to get them and other airlines to operate more flights out of CWL.

I don't expect Ryanair, or any other airline, sees it as sucking money out of South and West Wales any more than airlines see their 5 million passengers from South West England who use the London airports (mainly LHR) each year as sucking money out of that region of England.

Airlines operate in a way that they feel is best for them. Airline company officers, like officers of any company, have a legal duty to their shareholders to secure the best returns and the niceties of national borders will only be a factor if they are likely to have an influence on the balance sheet.

I believe strongly that if all APD power was devolved to the WG and then abolished Ryanair would increase its CWL presence. Part of their creed is the reduction or abolition of air passenger taxes and they always 'reward' countries in some way (and make a big public 'splash' out of it) who substantially reduce or abolish such taxes.

 

[Jerry]

I don't expect Ryanair, or any other airline, sees it as sucking money out of South and West Wales any more than airlines see their 5 million passengers from South West England who use the London airports (mainly LHR) each year as sucking money out of that region of England.

No they don't see it that way and maybe part of the reason is they don't see Wales as a separate market but rather as a part of the South West of the UK market and their Midlands market and their North Western market. I wonder if as a business they don't see Wales as a separate market but part of England's market and considering how vast Ryanairs network is as a destination for tourists from another country even as a seasonal destination.

I believe strongly that if all APD power was devolved to the WG and then abolished Ryanair would increase its CWL presence. Part of their creed is the reduction or abolition of air passenger taxes and they always 'reward' countries in some way (and make a big public 'splash' out of it) who substantially reduce or abolish such taxes.

That is what I'm starting to believe. Which is ironic as it will take Wales becoming more self governing from Westminster for Ryanair to look more seriously at Wales as a market and a destination in it's network.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I've read a post in the CWL thread of the Dried Plum today suggesting these routes from CWL: Norwegian to New York, Boston and Oakland, Delta to Atlanta, American to Philadelphia and United to Chicago which he suggests would be a good start. I wonder what the poster thinks ought to be in the second round of US routes.

This poster is either a WUM or is away with the fairies. If by chance he is being serious it shows the unrealistic expectations of some people.

 

[Jerry]

I've read a post in the CWL thread of the Dried Plum today suggesting these routes from CWL: Norwegian to New York, Boston and Oakland, Delta to Atlanta, American to Philadelphia and United to Chicago which he suggests would be a good start. I wonder what the poster thinks ought to be in the second round of US routes.

This poster is either a WUM or is away with the fairies. If by chance he is being serious it shows the unrealistic expectations of some people.

Yeah I've seen that post. Usually see something like on Social media rather than an aviation forum.

 

[Jerry]

On the other forum's Cardiff thread a poster has put up a reply with a curious view of Cardiff's long haul aspirations and it's routes. So i'd thought i'd ask what he said here.
Can the Qatar Airways Doha route be classed at Cardiff's only long haul destination?
Does Barbados and Jamaica because of their short season not count as destinations?
Does Cardiff's future long haul ambitions for more transatlantic flights depend on the Doha route succeeding? So if Doha fails would that mean any attempts at NYC, Orlando, more Caribbean etc would also fail?

 

[superking]

Qatar
Qatar can close the route any time it likes if it does not perform to expectations on pax or freight.

The Barbados asnd Jamaica routes are leisure routes so if Qatar pulled the route it would make no difference.

Orlando and other Caribbean routes would be leisure routes so would make no affect.

NYC would be part leisure and part business so would make no difference to this route. The NYC route would have its own issues running if it was to be operated.The pax take up would be low as this would run at least 3 times
per week and every week.

With any route if it does not or could not work then air lines wont operate them. The other thing is if a route fails other air lines take notice,and that is with any route. Lots of routes that ppl would say that will work.There is lots of routes not operated from CWL because of the reason the route wont work. Airlines do their homework, sometimes do a survey or if a route has been operated from the /or any airport in the past.
Airlines have got very good in the last few years if a route will work or not work.