Potential Routes

[superking]

One more comment.
Any airport would rather not have a new route operate if it is going to fail,as it always seems the airport is at fault why it failed.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

On the other forum's Cardiff thread a poster has put up a reply with a curious view of Cardiff's long haul aspirations and it's routes. So i'd thought i'd ask what he said here.
Can the Qatar Airways Doha route be classed at Cardiff's only long haul destination?
Does Barbados and Jamaica because of their short season not count as destinations?
Does Cardiff's future long haul ambitions for more transatlantic flights depend on the Doha route succeeding? So if Doha fails would that mean any attempts at NYC, Orlando, more Caribbean etc would also fail?

I should ignore that particular poster on that forum. He seems to have his own agenda about CWL. He's usually negative whenever anything crops up about the airport.

Qatar
Qatar can close the route any time it likes if it does not perform to expectations on pax or freight.

The Barbados asnd Jamaica routes are leisure routes so if Qatar pulled the route it would make no difference.

Orlando and other Caribbean routes would be leisure routes so would make no affect.

NYC would be part leisure and part business so would make no difference to this route. The NYC route would have its own issues running if it was to be operated.The pax take up would be low as this would run at least 3 times
per week and every week.

With any route if it does not or could not work then air lines wont operate them. The other thing is if a route fails other air lines take notice,and that is with any route. Lots of routes that ppl would say that will work.There is lots of routes not operated from CWL because of the reason the route wont work. Airlines do their homework, sometimes do a survey or if a route has been operated from the /or any airport in the past.
Airlines have got very good in the last few years if a route will work or not work.

I agree that the performance of the Qatar operation has no relevance whatsoever to current or potential transatlantic routes, nor them to it.

 

[Jerry]

I should ignore that particular poster on that forum. He seems to have his own agenda about CWL. He's usually negative whenever anything crops up about the airport.

Yep he does seem more negative than some of the posters on there and they aren't exactly a positive bunch!
In the end they are separate markets and just because the one works or doesn't, doesn't mean the other will be a success or fail.

 

[Coathanger16]

In the end they are separate markets and just because the one works or doesn't, doesn't mean the other will be a success or fail.

Yes and no.

As you say just because one route doesn't work doesn't mean a different route wouldn't either. They both have their own demand/market.

However if a particular long haul route didn't perform well, and consider an airline won't launch a route unless they think it will be successful, it may cause other airlines to question their own demand predictions.

I do think however that if Qatar does very well at Cardiff, an airline that currently doesn't believe there is demand for a route from Cardiff might see Qatar's good performance as an indication that demand is stronger than they previously believed.

Predicting demand is a tricky business - as an observer its quite interesting, but I wouldn't want to be involved in it

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

In aviation I have heard success breeds success.

Basically the successful a route/airport is the more people want to either operate said route or airport.

Best thing for Cardiff to do now is continue performing well and it will reap rewards as seen with the Qatar announcement.

I know in the past Airlines didn't believe the stats being provided by the airport to encourage them to add routes. So the more success we see then the more the airport will be able to entice new routes and airlines.

Worst thing for the airport now is to lose a destination or airline as it will take us back a step or two.

 

[Jerry]

The Doha service is probably the most important route the airport and Wales has had for a long time and I've no doubt there would be many people quite happy if it failed. Personally i'm cautiously optimistic about it but i've no evidence to back that up!
From a personal point of view i'm very intrigued about these airlines that the airport is having talks with about US routes and if anything happens what the destination will be considering i travel their a few times a year it would be nice to have the option of a direct flight to the US and a connection from there.
I do think the airport is growing well but like has been said in the posts above a failure on a route could set it back quite a bit.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The Doha service is probably the most important route the airport and Wales has had for a long time and I've no doubt there would be many people quite happy if it failed. Personally i'm cautiously optimistic about it but i've no evidence to back that up!
From a personal point of view i'm very intrigued about these airlines that the airport is having talks with about US routes and if anything happens what the destination will be considering i travel their a few times a year it would be nice to have the option of a direct flight to the US and a connection from there.
I do think the airport is growing well but like has been said in the posts above a failure on a route could set it back quite a bit.

I know there are a few people on places like the Dried Plum who seem to have an agenda against CWL but are there really 'many people' out there who would like to see it fail? I don't even believe that a rival airport would be in that category. BRS is the closest and it seems they were never in the game with Qatar and aren't likely to be as things currently stand, even if there was no CWL route.

Whilst on the subject of Qatar I'm surprised at the low-key advertising in the Bristol area. There is a prominent advert on the platform immediately next to the entrance/exit at Temple Meads Station. I assume it's still there - I haven't been to the station since well before the holiday season. I also heard an advert on a local commercial radio station whilst in my health centre waiting room (I'm not a listener of these sorts of radio channels usually so don't know how intensive the Qatar advertising is there).

I'd have expected things like advertising hoardings in prominent positions around Bristol city centre, adverts on Bristol buses and possibly a big splash in the West Country edition of the Metro free newspaper as Jet2 and BHX have been doing for services at BHX. I've spoken to several people of my acquaintance who fly long-haul for leisure and none was aware of the Qatar service at CWL. In the main they are older (like me) and have the time and wherewithal to travel but again like me aren't the types who would normally listen to commercial radio. They are the types though who would probably fly premium class, the sort of people who both Qatar and CWL would want for the flights.

As to losing airlines, I understand that there can be a danger this might set airports back but looking at BRS again; they've lost WOW, seen a big reduction in their Wizz Air programme not to mention the loss of Continental (now United) to EWR. Passenger numbers were generally ok on EWR, especially pre-2009 before the recession bit, but yields reportedly weren't. That might be the reason why no carrier has returned but in general terms the airport has flourished despite the loss and reductions referred to above.

 

[Jerry]

I'd have expected things like advertising hoardings in prominent positions around Bristol city centre, adverts on Bristol buses and possibly a big splash in the West Country edition of the Metro free newspaper as Jet2 and BHX have been doing for services at BHX. I've spoken to several people of my acquaintance who fly long-haul for leisure and none was aware of the Qatar service at CWL. In the main they are older (like me) and have the time and wherewithal to travel but again like me aren't the types who would normally listen to commercial radio. They are the types though who would probably fly premium class, the sort of people who both Qatar and CWL would want for the flights.

That is a concern yes but i'm guessing it will be the airport that is paying for the advertising and that it will come out of their yearly budget so that might limit them a bit. I know Wales Online seems to do an article including the route every week it seems but i don't know if those articles are copied by the Bristol Post or Devon Live as i don't follow those papers. I travel on the M6 a lot with my work as my company has a depot at Cannock and we also do a lot of Tilbury dock to the North West loads and the Primera advertisements on the billboards on the M6 by Star city and Walsall FC always catches my eye. I don't know if the M5 near Bristol has anything similar near Filton say but if it does then that would be a great way to advertise the Qatar Airways service.

As to losing airlines, I understand that there can be a danger this might set airports back but looking at BRS again; they've lost WOW, seen a big reduction in their Wizz Air programme not to mention the loss of Continental (now United) to EWR. Passenger numbers were generally ok on EWR, especially pre-2009 before the recession bit, but yields reportedly weren't. That might be the reason why no carrier has returned but in general terms the airport has flourished despite the loss and reductions referred to above.

I think the difference with an airport like Bristol is it's size, losing WOW may not put off say someone like Primera from looking at Bristol for US flights in the future. Whereas if CWL had lost WOW it might be different.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

That is a concern yes but i'm guessing it will be the airport that is paying for the advertising and that it will come out of their yearly budget so that might limit them a bit. I know Wales Online seems to do an article including the route every week it seems but i don't know if those articles are copied by the Bristol Post or Devon Live as i don't follow those papers. I travel on the M6 a lot with my work as my company has a depot at Cannock and we also do a lot of Tilbury dock to the North West loads and the Primera advertisements on the billboards on the M6 by Star city and Walsall FC always catches my eye. I don't know if the M5 near Bristol has anything similar near Filton say but if it does then that would be a great way to advertise the Qatar Airways service.

I think the difference with an airport like Bristol is it's size, losing WOW may not put off say someone like Primera from looking at Bristol for US flights in the future. Whereas if CWL had lost WOW it might be different.

There's nothing in the Bristol Post - one of the many Trinity Mirror titles of course like Wales Online - on a regular basis. The only thing I can remember was an article when the Qatar route was first announced last April. I look at the Bristol Post web edition every day that I'm online and do the same most days with the Exeter and Plymouth web editions of their local papers that are also part of Trinity Mirror. I've seen nothing there about Qatar and CWL either.

 

[Jerry]

There's nothing in the Bristol Post - one of the many Trinity Mirror titles of course like Wales Online - on a regular basis. The only thing I can remember was an article when the Qatar route was first announced last April. I look at the Bristol Post web edition every day that I'm online and do the same most days with the Exeter and Plymouth web editions of their local papers that are also part of Trinity Mirror. I've seen nothing there about Qatar and CWL either.

Which considering it's been advertised as a service for the South West is a bit perplexing.

 

[Chris Gronow]

We have Smooth South Wales on in the office at the moment and there are regular Qatar adverts on there promoting the route. I know this doesn't help the issue of whether it is being advertised across the bridge but a radio advert exists and is obviously easily transferred to other stations if they needed to.

 

[Jerry]

South Wales wise i don't think they can do much more advertising wise that i can think of. Hopefully those adverts get played on the South West version of Smooth as well.

 

[Aviador]

I've read a post in the CWL thread of the Dried Plum today suggesting these routes from CWL: Norwegian to New York, Boston and Oakland, Delta to Atlanta, American to Philadelphia and United to Chicago which he suggests would be a good start. I wonder what the poster thinks ought to be in the second round of US routes.

This poster is either a WUM or is away with the fairies. If by chance he is being serious it shows the unrealistic expectations of some people.

When larger regional airports such as Birmingham and Newcastle can sustain flights to the likes of places like Boston and Atlanta then maybe Cardiff could but for the time being, it's not a distinct possibility but a distant one.

 

[Jerry]

There's nothing in the Bristol Post - one of the many Trinity Mirror titles of course like Wales Online - on a regular basis. The only thing I can remember was an article when the Qatar route was first announced last April. I look at the Bristol Post web edition every day that I'm online and do the same most days with the Exeter and Plymouth web editions of their local papers that are also part of Trinity Mirror. I've seen nothing there about Qatar and CWL either.

I passed on the concerns you raised about lack of advertising in Bristol and the South West to Lawrence Evans who is a part of the Fly 2 Cardiff Facebook page that promotes the airport and he passed them to Debra Barber and she replied that the Qatar advertising campaign for Bristol and the South West has only just begun and there will be more to come soon. She has passed the feedback to the advertising team as well. To be fair to her the reply was pretty quick! So hopefully you'll see some adds pretty soon!

 

[Jerry]

With Ryanair resuming SNN from Bristol could Flybe launch it in the future from CWL? Shannon does have the potential for seasonal long haul routes to add passengers and would open up the West of Ireland as a leisure route. Cork seems to do well as a 2 weekly route so maybe Shannon could as well.

Was involved in a conservation elsewhere on Facebook about the potential for Prague as a route that could return in the future so i had a look at the CAA stats from when the route was operated. 2003 was 7093 (not sure how long it operated for), 2004 51,701, 2005 52,647, 2006 48,153 and 2007 16,554. The numbers suggest there could be potential if it returns in the future.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

With Ryanair resuming SNN from Bristol could Flybe launch it in the future from CWL? Shannon does have the potential for seasonal long haul routes to add passengers and would open up the West of Ireland as a leisure route. Cork seems to do well as a 2 weekly route so maybe Shannon could as well.

Was involved in a conservation elsewhere on Social Media about the potential for Prague as a route that could return in the future so i had a look at the CAA stats from when the route was operated. 2003 was 7093 (not sure how long it operated for), 2004 51,701, 2005 52,647, 2006 48,153 and 2007 16,554. The numbers suggest there could be potential if it returns in the future.

I don't think that Shannon has ever been operated as a regular scheduled route. There have been charter flights of course often rugby-related and in 2006 over 2,500 passengers flew between CWL and SNN on charter flights.

bmibaby operated to Prague at 4 x weekly for the most part. Prague is still a popular destination, not only for stag and hen parties, but for those interested in visiting a beautiful city with a fascinating history although I think it's true to say that flights from regional airports are not as frequent as they were a decade ago in the destination's heyday for low cost airlines from the UK. Those airports that still have Prague routes don't fly as often as they once did.

My wife and I visited Prague for a few days several years ago. It's well worth a visit.

I wouldn't rule it out. Flybe's E175s would be a good size for the route.

 

[Jerry]

SNN would be a good addition and would help with making it easier for rugby fans to get to not just Limerick but Galway as well and of course western Ireland is a lovely destination as well.
With Prague i do believe it will return eventually as the Flybe base keeps expanding then reconnecting with Eastern Europe may well become a target for the airport. My mum visited Prague with my sister and they both loved it.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Ireland is a beautiful country. We flew to Cork once and picked up a car and toured the south-west area including the Ring of Kerry. On another visit we went to Galway and back for the day on the train from Dublin. We're going to Ireland again this summer. We fly to Dublin and pick up an escorted train tour of Northern Ireland and part of the west coast of the Republic. We've done this escorted rail tour thing about eight or nine times in the past ten years, around all of the UK and to a number of European mainland countries.

 

[Jerry]

I've only been to Ireland due to work and not the Northern or Western part. I've been to Cork and that is a nice drive down from Rosslare, that was over 10 years ago when i was working for a company that made up the in flight carts for Monarch Airlines and they did a once a week Faro flight during the summer from Cork Airport. I also had a trip to Dublin and a drive through the city and to the outskirts of the airport, again delivering equipment for Monarch to Alpha flight services at Dublin for their charters from there. I did find it a lovely country with friendly and helpful people as i got lost in Dublin!

 

[Jerry]

Just seen a post on WAF and i checked Wikipedia myself, someone posted on the airports wiki page Primera Air Malaga to start 28th October 2018. It's obviously wikipedia so should be approached with caution but it would be good for the airport to get a new airline especially in winter.