Flybe

[Aviador]

Over night parking is a different deal. You do a bit of asking around and people will say base of aircraft is cheaper than over night parking. Its always been this way.Long haul is different as only the crew expence to pay for

The published fees can be very different from those agreed during negotiations to start or retain air services. There will be a combination of forces at work here. The airport will be keen to retain the status quo or minimise route loses. The airline may be following an entirely new business model, a model that Cardiff might not be part of. It may also be seeking to renegotiate it's terms and conditions with the airports it serves. Overnight parking charges along with any other charges will feature in negotiations.

 

[Jerry]

I'd imagine that there would've been all sorts of fees discounted or waived under the Blackbird deal that will have to be renegotiated or maybe the airport will keep them in place in the hope of getting the base back one day.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe have started to release the timetable for winter and so far nothing for Cardiff.

 

[Jerry]

Should Cardiff be concerned that Flybe have loaded the schedules onto thier timetable for all their other airports but Cardiff with the exception of Newcastle and Anglesey has nothing?

 

[louis_walton]

Leeds still has nothing so it's just a waiting game I suppose!

 

[Jerry]

I forgot to check Leeds! Kind of comforting in that it might not be complete then! Apparently the schedule goes onsale tomorrow.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

As the official release date is tomorrow, nothing will be confirmed until then. So not really worth speculating just yet as we don't know if the full schedule is loaded into the timetables.

 

[Jerry]

I guess we'll find out tomorrow if that is it for Flybe at CWL!

 

[Jerry]

Leeds still has nothing so it's just a waiting game I suppose!

Leeds is now loaded. So just leaves Cardiff.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe have started putting winter onsale and so far nothing for Cardiff.

 

[Cambrian]

I wonder how much prior notice an airport gets ,if an airline is not going to renew flights. For example would CWL have been told in advance if they were not going to renew routes so that the airport could start looking for alternative airlines to operate dropped routes.

 

[Jerry]

I wonder how much prior notice an airport gets ,if an airline is not going to renew flights. For example would CWL have been told in advance if they were not going to renew routes so that the airport could start looking for alternative airlines to operate dropped routes.

Well the announcement was in April so I imagine over 6 months from Flybe's point of view and maybe in the Operation Blackbird contract is enough notice. If Flybe aren't returning for the winter I imagine that the airport already knows that and are working hard to find replacement airlines but it will be hard for them as to most airlines Cardiff is just a very small airport and may not be a priority even on routes like Dublin and Edinburgh.

 

[Jerry]

There has been a suggestion on social media that only Belfast and Dublin will remain from the Flybe route network. This comes from a Flybe reply on social media.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Apparently selected routes will go onsale at a later date due to ongoing negotiations between the airport and Flybe.

There has been a suggestion on social media that only Belfast and Dublin will remain from the Flybe route network. This comes from a Flybe reply on social media.

DSA reportedly only has Amsterdam and Belfast surviving from its original 'Project Blackbird' network. The other Project Blackbird airport was of course CWL and if the Flybe social media comment is correct - if it is - CWL will have been similarly decimated.

The previous Flybe owners had pulled out of CWL, saying most of the routes were uneconomic only to return via Project Blackbird when both CWL and DSA appeared ready and willing to invest a lot of money (millions in CWL's case, I'm not sure how much at DSA) to persuade Flybe to return to CWL and at the same time provide a use for the airline's white elephant E195s.

The actual Project Blackbird contract between airport and airline would have been commercially confidential so we don't know how it addresses a situation where Flybe is under new ownership. The worst scenario is that the money expended to bring back Flybe is money now spent and unrecoverable. The airport company borrowed the money from the WG at commercial rates and it will have to be repaid according to the agreed terms.

A few months ago I read that not all the money the WG had made available to its airport company for route development had been drawn as a loan, with several million pounds still available. Does the airport company risk spending more money on getting another airline or airlines to fill Flybe's gaps, or can it find an airline that will operate without a 'subsidy'?

Obviously we wil have to wait for confirmation regarding the route situation but EDI and GLA are core domestic route and can't be left unfilled.

 

[Jerry]

DSA reportedly only has Amsterdam and Belfast surviving from its original 'Project Blackbird' network. The other Project Blackbird airport was of course CWL and if the Flybe social media comment is correct - if it is - CWL will have been similarly decimated.

I've read the post properly and it's just Flybe social media telling the person to sign up to newsletter and highlight those routes.
I did see a comment from a more reliable source saying that the negotiations are more CWL begging than negotiations.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I've read the post properly and it's just Flybe social media telling the person to sign up to newsletter and highlight those routes.
I did see a comment from a more reliable source saying that the negotiations are more CWL begging than negotiations.

We'll have to wait and see what tumbles out.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I still can't make sense of the talk that certain core routes were unprofitable for Flybe. Maybe they were unprofitable on the Jets but in comparison to other Airports, flybe likes to maintain higher frequencies which in turn produces lower load factors, pointing to likely lower fares at the same time.
Flybe at CWL on the core routes (EDI/DUB/BHD/CDG) generally have healthy load factors, if not very healthy during peak times (85%+).
Add on to this the fact that the routes are effectively funded by WG/CWL. It has been mentioned that it's not CWL, but the WG or another part of it that has chartered these jet aircraft and have had a say in the route structure. If the routes weren't performing that well, why did Flybe base another jet and continue to increase frequencies on core routes?
It's very disappointing that even with the 10 year deal, flybe have been unable to make the network work and have pulled the plug on some, possibly all the routes.
Given that Flybe have released a foot note to their press release regarding CWL, I take that as a positive that something will be salvaged. Everything else is rumour and speculation. Even if CWL are "begging" Flybe to stay, that footnote hints that the routes will be staying, it's just in what context.
Possible outcomes?
- Low frequencies, possibly 1x daily during the day from EDI and BHD and possibly GLA.
- At least 2x daily frequencies from EDI & BHD to maintain business friendly timings. Possibility of CDG being operated by a GLA based aircraft.
- Funding is still available from CWL but they are using that are bargaining power for something more suited to what CWL wants/needs.
- Or going all out there and 2x Q400's being based in some form. Unlikely I know given the redundancies, but given that CWL/WG had little time to prepare before the announcement, there could well be a U-turn and jobs could be saved if the deal is right.

It would be interesting to know how the BHD and EDI based aircraft schedules stand currently with what's been put on sale. It would be strange for the schedules to be released without there being room for any possible CWL flights, but if the flights do happen, then how will they been squeezed in to the schedule, unless there's still spare aircraft unallocated.

 

[Jerry]

It does surprise me that they don't think a profitable Q400 base could be had around DUB, EDI, CDG, BHD, GLA, JER and ORK. As for lack of aircraft if the airport were willing to subsidise then i'm sure Stobart's lease arm could find 2 to 3 Q400s like they did for BA with the E190s. I just get the feeling that the Flybe top brass aren't bothered with CWL and just want to focus on Heathrow. Of course there is Stobart Air themselves who maybe could operate the base as a Flybe franchisee whether ATR or jet.
I just looked at Edinburgh's 1st wave for tomorrow and then the 13/11/19 and it's 6 based aircraft for summer with the same routes between 6.15 and 7.20 but 7 for winter with Exeter added.
Belfast has 6 first wave departures for tomorrow and appears unchanged for winter.
I think any flights from Edinburgh and Belfast will be second wave departures unless they base an extra aircraft at each which then would beg the question of why can't they base them at CWL.

 

[superking]

It comes down to yield and they will base or run aircraft where there is money to be made.. Flybe did exact same at BRS when they took over bacon. They could not get out of BRS quick enough. Dont forget Flybe are on dodgey ground teir selves and you are rigt the tie up with Virgin is andwill be focused on the London airports.

 

[Jerry]

It comes down to yield and they willbase or run aircraft where tere is money to be made.. Flybe did exact same at BRS when they took over bacon. They could not get out of BRS quick enough.

Wasn't that because of Easyjet though?
It could be possible though that with BRS next door CWL is profitable but not profitable enough compared to a subsidised flight going into Heathrow for instance or one between Belfast and Birmingham or and Edinburgh to London flight.