Ryanair

[superking]

The TUI thread got me thinking about Ryanair at CWL.Im sure if Ryanair set a base up in CWL and operated flights to here there and every where,then I could see 3 things happening. TUI would down size Thomas cook would pull out and Vueling would pull out.This is my thoughts and a few others as well. This would be some thing CWL would like. To get Ryanair to do more flights in and out of CWL then they would have to get them to do flights to destinations not served. But the problem with that is which airports would they operate in to.

 

[Jerry]

The TUI thread got me thinking about Ryanair at CWL.Im sure if Ryanair set a base up in CWL and operated flights to here there and every where,then I could see 3 things happening. TUI would down size Thomas cook would pull out and Vueling would pull out.This is my thoughts and a few others as well. This would be some thing CWL would like. To get Ryanair to do more flights in and out of CWL then they would have to get them to do flights to destinations not served. But the problem with that is which airports would they operate in to.

I honestly don't see why a Ryanair base would effect Thomas Cook and TUI. Vueling yes but I think the loss of Vueling would be the price paying for a Ryanair base.

 

[superking]

You know as well as me how they squeeze other airlines until some thing gives.But I hope im wrong with what I said about TUI Thomas cook and Vueling. It would be in the airports interest to not rely on 1 main airline,which is happening to a degree in BRS.

 

[Jerry]

You know as well as me how they squeeze other airlines until some thing gives.But I hope im wrong with what I said about TUI Thomas cook and Vueling. It would be in the airports interest to not rely on 1 main airline,which is happening to a degree in BRS.

TUI and Thomas Cook operate in different markets and no doubt have different types of customers to Ryanair being package holiday companies so I think they would just compliment each other.
Vueling are different, I do see Vueling pulpulling out of Cardiff eventually especially if Ryanair open a base.
As for relying on 1 airline, for an airport like Cardiff they don't have much choice as there aren't any other airlines who would be interested. There will always be pros and cons in dealing with airlines like Ryanair. The airport could invest in them get based aircraft and create jobs and increase it's passenger numbers and after 3 to 5 years they could be gone or they could grow more or it could be cautious and never really grow it's passenger numbers and route network and continue to watch as lots of people from it's catchment area head to England.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

As Jerry said, Tour Operators and associated charter flights are a different market to scheduled low cost Airlines. There may be a small effect on TUI/TCX, but any shift in customers would just encourage competition and likely encourage more people to look at CWL over others Airports if prices come down. TUI operate alongside FR at BOH which has a based aircraft.
Hopefully TCX basing an A321 is a sign that they are willing to also protect their market. Their biggest headache would be Jet2, if it were ever to happen.
The only effect I see FR having is on BRS, whether that be on FR's own flights or EZY. I see VY hanging around for some time provided they are willing to put up a fight on any routes FR duplicate. ALC, AGP and PMI must be good earners for VY as not only are fares usually reasonable, and during peak months can be quite expensive but still go fairly full, they also probably earn a fair bit in ancillary revenue, such as checked bags and on board sale. Generally people going to Spain on holiday have bags and are up for having a drink or snack on board.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Lots of imponderables in the months/years ahead, whether affecting Ryanair's presence at CWL or the airport's future in general.

The first is obviously Brexit.

Then there is the Thomas Cook situation with reports today suggesting that the previously reported Fosun taking a major stake might not be a 'done deal'.

Ryanair is still something of a loose cannon with its announcements in that a year or two ago it said that the Brexit situation would see its growth concentrated in mainland Europe and not the UK, yet since then it has grown its presence substantially in the UK including airports at which it had no previous presence or a very small one. Now it's talking about closing bases and cutting back but the details are awaited.

CWL's fortunes seem inextricably bound up with those of BRS which might well see itself capped at 10 mppa for many years to come.

APD devolution: whether it is devolved and if it is by how much the WG government would reduce or even axe it and, if they did, what the effect would be.

The possibility of a recession in the USA (denied by Trump) which if it happened would affect many of the world's economies.

It will be interesting to look back at the current period in 5-10 years time to see how things did pan out.

 

[Jerry]

I think we all know that Ryanair are unpredictable as an airline! They could announce a 3 aircraft base tomorrow for all we know or completely pull out of Cardiff altogether! I do hope that they will continue to grow at CWL and that growth then turn into a base.

 

[Jerry]

It looks like goodbye to the Tenerife route as Ryanair have confirmed that they will close the base.

Ryanair to shut four Spanish base next year -union

DUBLIN: Ryanair has decided to close its Spanish bases in Las Palmas, Tenerife South, Lanzarote and Girona from January,

www.brecorder.com

 

[jfy1999]

In a statement, a spokesperson for Ryanair said, "As announced on July 16 due to the late delivery of up to 30 Boeing MAX aircraft this winter a number of Ryanair bases will be cut or closed this winter. These consultations are taking place with our people at affected bases currently. No routes will be affected as they will be served by flights from other bases from November when the winter schedule starts."

Ryanair to close four bases in Spain

Ryanair is to close its Spanish bases in Las Palmas, Tenerife South, Lanzarote and Girona from January, according to the local USO union.

www.rte.ie

Maybe the plan is to W-pattern from other airports if not to start a CWL base?

 

[Jerry]

In a statement, a spokesperson for Ryanair said, "As announced on July 16 due to the late delivery of up to 30 Boeing MAX aircraft this winter a number of Ryanair bases will be cut or closed this winter. These consultations are taking place with our people at affected bases currently. No routes will be affected as they will be served by flights from other bases from November when the winter schedule starts."

Ryanair to close four bases in Spain

Ryanair is to close its Spanish bases in Las Palmas, Tenerife South, Lanzarote and Girona from January, according to the local USO union.

www.rte.ie

Maybe the plan is to W-pattern from other airports if not to start a CWL base?

Or overnight crews at tfs?

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Unless FR get very creative with their crews, I can't see how they could operate TFS and FAO on W patterns. Which either means loss of routes or potential base.
FR aren't ones for taxiing crews around the country unless they really need to (as in short notice requirements).

Possible options;
- They could use BRS crew as the taxi costs won't be huge but any further than that will incur expensive taxis or even hotels.

- Some kind of DUB-CWL-FAO/TFS-CWL-DUB schedule. I'm not sure it would be within crew hours for a TFS flight though, FAO should be within hours.

- Utilise 2 aircraft by operating Aircraft 1 DUB-CWL-TFS-DUB Aircraft 2) DUB-TFS-CWL-DUB,
also giving CWL a DUB flight a few times a week

 

[Jerry]

The only way i can see them operating TFS is if they overnight crews there or as you suggested operate it from a DUB based aircraft but would they really go to all that trouble just for Cardiff? It would be nice to think they would but i just can't see it, but if they aren't going to operate the route then why have they still fligths onsale?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Only TFS and MLA are to be operated this winter aren't they? FAO is currently a summer route as it is at NQY which presumably will also be wondering what is to happen to FAO next summer.

Addendum

Or is the FAO base not closing? I thought I read somewhere recently that it was.

 

[Jerry]

Only TFS and MLA are to be operated this winter aren't they? FAO is currently a summer route as it is at NQY which presumably will also be wondering what is to happen to FAO next summer.

Addendum

Or is the FAO base not closing? I thought I read somewhere recently that it was.

Latest news reports said Tenerife was closing along with the other Canary islands bases and that was confirmed by Ryanair.
Faro was said to be closing but I don't think has been confirmed by Ryanair.
Ryanair have said in a statement
No routes will be affected as they will be served by flights from other bases from November when the winter schedule starts."

 

[Jerry]

At the moment the times for the TFS route are these
Monday
TFS-CWL 06.45-10.50
CWL-TFS 11.15-15.25
Friday
TFS-CWL 13.45-17.50
CWL-TFS 18.15-22.25
And that is the same after January.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I suppose one answer might be - and I believe this might have been suggested earlier - the removal of one BRS-based aircraft to open a one-aircraft base at CWL (I believe that BOH is a one-aircraft base).

With their huge array of bases Ryanair could operate the flights previously operated by the 'lost' aircraft from other bases. They already operate the equivalent of a three-aircraft base into BRS from other bases to complement the current four-aircraft BRS base itself. In summer 2013 after a reported falling out with BRS over charges Ryanair reduced the then five-aircraft base to two aircraft but maintained the previous summer's schedule (actually slightly enhanced) using aircraft from other bases.

This brought the benefit of easing the peaks and troughs at BRS, reducing the manic first wave of departures at the airport and helping with the BRS night-flying restrictions and night noise quotas.

If Ryanair has sufficient aircraft to do something like this (but aren't the base closures the result of the MAX situation which means fewer available aircraft in the fleet?) it would be a win for CWL and a sort of win for BRS.

Alternatively, if Ryanair wanted to open a CWL base and aircraft availability was an issue they might cut back their BRS programme to move an aircraft form there, or move one from another base airport.

 

[Jerry]

I suppose one answer might be - and I believe this might have been suggested earlier - the removal of one BRS-based aircraft to open a one-aircraft base at CWL (I believe that BOH is a one-aircraft base).

I honestly would be shocked if that were to happen. Maybe basing aircraft at CWL that were intended to increase BRS but I don't think they cut the BRS base to operate out of CWL.
It will be interesting to see what happens, I do hope Ryanair finds a way to operate the TFS and FAO flights if they close those bases. It's only 3 weekly flights in the summer but keeping them would be a big boost as at the moment there is a lot of negativity around Cardiff and you can't help feel that the airport is about to start going backwards again and good news from Ryanair is needed!

 

[Jerry]

Some kind of DUB-CWL-FAO/TFS-CWL-DUB schedule. I'm not sure it would be within crew hours for a TFS flight though, FAO should be within hours.

On Twitter some just said that it's been suggested to them that Dublin based aircraft will takeover the TFS route.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

TFS has been taken off sale for next year. Last flight 6th Jan. Same with NCL.

 

[Jerry]

TFS has been taken off sale for next year. Last flight 6th Jan. Same with NCL.

CWL can't really catch a break can it!!!