Ryanair

[superking]

The 737 700 is used for sports charters,its been busy with these. It also takes spare parts and engineers any where in Europe if 1 is gone tech.It also takes MOL if he is on his travels to airports round Europe. It does no schedule work unless ryanair were stuck for aircraft.It has normally been parked in STN but that might be changed now.Its nice to know this aircraft is used for every thing you care to mention and its not cheap to keep a aircraft like this air worthy. Not many airlines have a luxary like this.

 

[Jerry]

anna.aero | Temporarily Unavailable

I've copied this link originally posted today by Ray Finkle in one of the BHX threads.

The linked article summarises the thoughts of Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary speaking today at ACI Europe's annual congress.

He believes that passenger volumes will restore 'reasonably quickly' on short haul and he doesn't think it will take until 2024-2025 to get back to 2019 passenger levels, believing that 2022 is more likely especially if vaccines are found and also if airports are 'progressive' by which he means a willingness to offer Ryanair robust growth incentives.

He put it this way, “Rapid recovery for airports will go to those airport operators who are swift and responsive and which come up with the right traffic growth incentives.”

O'Leary also said his airline has to make allocation decisions for summer 2021 and is in then act of finalising its schedules with 'progressive' airports. He cites Manchester and Stansted as airports that 'get it' and growth for them 'and others like them' is 'probably assured' for next summer.

Nothing new in this from from MoL when it comes to telling airports they have to be good to Ryanair but it might explain why there are still a number of regular BRS routes not yet in the booking engine for summer 2021. I suppose it depends whether Ryanair considers BRS a progressive airports in its interpretation of the word.

He put it this way, “Rapid recovery for airports will go to those airport operators who are swift and responsive and which come up with the right traffic growth incentives.”
I would like to hope that Cardiff would be one of those operators even if it's just for a few non based routes like say Dublin.

 

[Matt kenshole]

He put it this way, “Rapid recovery for airports will go to those airport operators who are swift and responsive and which come up with the right traffic growth incentives.”
I would like to hope that Cardiff would be one of those operators even if it's just for a few non based routes like say Dublin.

I really hope Exeter manage to rope Ryanair in some more- we are in real dyer straights down here!

 

[Jerry]

I really hope Exeter manage to rope Ryanair in some more- we are in real dyer straights down here!

I expect Ryanair phones are going non stop! Let's hope they are answering the calls from the small airports as well as the big ones!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I expect Ryanair phones are going non stop! Let's hope they are answering the calls from the small airports as well as the big ones!

If you look back to post #659 of 21 May in this thread you will see that Ryanair was saying exactly the same thing then. This is what was in that post.

Watching MOL's press conference he said bases inc UK are under review and they are talking to airports to achieve deals, he went onto say they would expand at new or existing bases (especially those where they have been affected by other airlines going bust) if deals can be done.

 

[Jerry]

If you look back to post #659 of 21 May in this thread you will see that Ryanair was saying exactly the same thing then. This is what was in that post.

Watching MOL's press conference he said bases inc UK are under review and they are talking to airports to achieve deals, he went onto say they would expand at new or existing bases (especially those where they have been affected by other airlines going bust) if deals can be done.

I suppose we can only hope that Ryanair will add at CWL in the future but I suspect that at Cardiff any deal done was to keep Faro and Malaga rather than add any new routes.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Demand is likely going to be very different on some of Ryanair less marginal routes. That could well mean a big shift to what Ryanair was operating across its network in 2019, which may not be profitable with the current lower demand.
It could mean a huge review in to what actually makes money. Generally this is seen to be sun routes which CWL could support, which will likely see a quicker increase demand that business and marginal city routes.
It could well put CWL and EXT in the running for a small base if the figures stack up.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Demand is likely going to be very different on some of Ryanair less marginal routes. That could well mean a big shift to what Ryanair was operating across its network in 2019, which may not be profitable with the current lower demand.
It could mean a huge review in to what actually makes money. Generally this is seen to be sun routes which CWL could support, which will likely see a quicker increase demand that business and marginal city routes.
It could well put CWL and EXT in the running for a small base if the figures stack up.

It's a valid point but does it even have to be a base, given Ryanair's huge array of bases? BRS has four aircraft based in summer but its Ryanair programme is getting on for double that with many routes operated in full or in part by aircraft from the 'other end' of the route.

In 2012 when BRS and Ryanair fell out over charges Ryanair removed all its (then) five based aircraft bar two but kept exactly the same programme going as the previous summer (slightly augmented actually) using non-BRS aircraft for the overwhelming majority of its services. I think this is as good an example as any of what Ryanair can do without basing at an airport.

 

[Jerry]

It's a valid point but does it even have to be a base, given Ryanair's huge array of bases?

Except they don't have a base in the canary Islands which scheduled flights is a gap for CWL.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Except they don't have a base in the canary Islands which scheduled flights is a gap for CWL.

That's a fair response but I wonder if the cost of setting up a base would outweigh the return when they could certainly operate some potentially viable routes from existing bases.

As with other airports it seems it might come down to what the airport owner is prepared to offer, although obviously any routes under consideration at any airport would have to have a workable market in the first place. If Airport A is likely to be able fill up aircraft at a given fare structure more easily than Airport B then Airport B might have to find a better incentive package than Airport A.

I note in the link I posted yesterday that MOL was having a dig at Dublin Airport for not toeing the Ryanair line at the moment. I can't think that Ryanair would downsize drastically at DUB whatever MOL might say.

 

[Jerry]

That's a fair response but I wonder if the cost of setting up a base would outweigh the return when they could certainly operate some potentially viable routes from existing bases.

Realistically that probably limit potential routes down to Dublin, Mallorca, Alicante, Malaga with extended season, Barcelona, Faro adding an extra frequency, Murcia? and Malta as i can't see them being interested in routes beyond what i stated apart from the Canaries if they had bases there.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Realistically that probably limit potential routes down to Dublin, Mallorca, Alicante, Malaga with extended season, Barcelona, Faro adding an extra frequency, Murcia? and Malta as i can't see them being interested in routes beyond what i stated apart from the Canaries if they had bases there.

Lots of fluidity in the aviation scene at the moment and there could be some imaginative airline decisions aimed at getting as many passengers as possible next year to help with cash flow and debt repayment.

Looking at the CWL-BRS-EXT area as one the Jet2 arrival might also come into the equation. Ryanair might move some capacity to CWL and EXT but they also might be wary of giving up too much of the BRS capacity, unless they decide to all but throw in the towel there - probably unlikely but who knows?

There are some routes that might only work at BRS and then only with help from the adjoining airport catchments. Neither CWL nor EXT are in a position to augment from both the other airports because of their geographical locations and their individual catchments are also smaller.

I think that Foxlimayankee made a telling point about Ryanair perhaps wanting to concentrate on the higher volume routes and that could help CWL and EXT with some more sun routes next year. After that..........

 

[Jerry]

Alicante and Mallorca for Ryanair

https://twitter.com/x/status/1331532162189946880

https://twitter.com/x/status/1331532167298633729

A Monday and Friday Alicante and a Tuesday and Saturday Mallorca would be good at Cardiff! Can only hope Cardiff is in running especially for Mallorca flights!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

A Monday and Friday Alicante and a Tuesday and Saturday Mallorca would be good at Cardiff! Can only hope Cardiff is in running especially for Mallorca flights!

Michael O'Leary has said he has a reasonable expectation of summer 2021 reaching 70% of 2019 passenger volume levels for his airline. Fare pricing would be a key driver of such volume and he continues to bang his drum about airports that co-operate by reducing airport charges to enable fare prices to be lowered will be the ones to benefit.

If CWL's owners are prepared to play MOL's game there must be a strong chance that some sun routes (at least) would eventuate for next summer. CWL is good at summer sun when it comes to filling aircraft - it's not always as good with other types of route - so I'm looking for some positive news from Ryanair.

 

[Jerry]

If CWL's owners are prepared to play MOL's game there must be a strong chance that some sun routes (at least) would eventuate for next summer. CWL is good at summer sun when it comes to filling aircraft - it's not always as good with other types of route - so I'm looking for some positive news from Ryanair.

The adding of routes at Teesside is a positive in that Ryanair aren't retreating from regional airports and look like they are open to offers from not just the big airports. Can just hope there's something positive for Cardiff to come.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The adding of routes at Teesside is a positive in that Ryanair aren't retreating from regional airports and look like they are open to offers from not just the big airports. Can just hope there's something positive for Cardiff to come.

Despite his denial it's extremely difficult to believe that the elected mayor of Tees Valley hasn't used some of his budget to attract Ryanair which reportedly has agreed a seven-year deal for the summer sun routes in question. It's up to CWL's owners to do something similar if they believe it's the right thing to do.

It would be a huge surprise to me if CWL doesn't get extra FR summer sun routes and/or increases in frequency on some existing ones next summer.

 

[Jerry]

Despite his denial it's extremely difficult to believe that the elected mayor of Tees Valley hasn't used some of his budget to attract Ryanair which reportedly has agreed a seven-year deal for the summer sun routes in question. It's up to CWL's owners to do something similar if they believe it's the right thing to do

I'd expect at the minimum Ryanair have free landing and handling fees, obviously we don't know what sort of deal is in place at Cardiff but i'd hope they'd be at least willing to give Ryanair better terms if they can maybe even a subsidy if they could get flights to Dublin for instance.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I was struck by the attitude of some MPs and AMs during committee meetings shown on video last year. There seemed to be a growing acceptance that CWL might not make a profit for a very long time with the not always spoken but nevertheless implied message that if the airport served the country well as a driver of the economy then that was a justification for its existence - not something a private sector owner could contemplate of course. The virus has probably increased the likelihood of profitability being a long way off.

That being so the government-owned airport company will have little choice if the only way to attract carriers, including an increased Ryanair presence, is to provide generous subsidies of various shapes.

Inevitably this will reach the public ear, if not the specific details, and there will be criticism from some quarters especially political opponents. Many people who live in Wales will also be against money being spent at the airport when so many other parts of society will be in need of financial pump-priming in the aftermath of the virus.

The coming weeks and months will be test of the CWL owner's resolve.

 

[Jerry]

Inevitably this will reach the public ear, if not the specific details, and there will be criticism from some quarters especially political opponents. Many people who live in Wales will also be against money being spent at the airport when so many other parts of society will be in need of financial pump-priming in the aftermath of the virus.

The coming weeks and months will be test of the CWL owner's resolve.

This is the catch 22 the airport faces, people want it to be a success and feel it should be more like Bristol and Heathrow but to even attract airlines is this day and age CWL and it's owner may well have to get the cheque book out to get an airline like Ryanair to be interested.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

This is the catch 22 the airport faces, people want it to be a success and feel it should be more like Bristol and Heathrow but to even attract airlines is this day and age CWL and it's owner may well have to get the cheque book out to get an airline like Ryanair to be interested.

Heathrow is an unrealistic comparator for such people to use.

Bristol is more realistic although, as we've said many times, it has a larger core catchment with easier access to more neighbouring catchments than CWL. I suspect most of those who believe that CWL ought to be a mini Heathrow or at least an equal of BRS are not well acquainted with the realities of civil aviation. I still hear people telling me, and the same applies with comments in the local press, that Bristol is a small airstrip in a field with few destinations if you don't want to fly to Spain. They seem to believe that many regional airports around the country are microcosms of Heathrow and that BRS should be the same, so CWL is not alone when it comes to dreamers. The Bristol variety doesn't realise how lucky it is. There is a local airport with a decent array of short-haul routes and the country's largest airport is not a million miles away when travel to further afield is on the agenda.

It's water long passed under the bridge now but I believe that CWL lost the plot vis-a-vis BRS in the 1990s. Its owners and officers failed to recognise fully the progress that BRS had been making since the mid-1980s, and before they knew it BRS was well ahead of them in terms of passenger numbers, routes and airlines. There seemed to be a belief that CWL's status as an airport serving a capital city would carry the day without too much effort being expended. I remember having this discussion with Peter Phillips ten years ago on his now defunct WAN website. Speaking of whom, does anyone know what he's doing these days? When I last heard of him he was still doing aviation consultancy work. I never see his username on the Dried Plum any more unless he's changed it.

The 'noughties' owners of CWL let Ryanair go in 2006 because of a dispute over charges. If they had bitten the bullet Ryanair might have expanded at CWL the following year instead of doing so at BRS with a new base thrown in. The undoubted advantage that BRS has had since Les Wilson's days from the early 1980s is in the quality of its senior management, and since full privatisation there in 2001 its supportive owners. I add the caveat that it's easier to manage well if your owners fully support you with more than mere words.

Unless Wizz Air is attracted by CWL the obvious paths to greater passenger volume are through Ryanair and TUI. easyJet is unlikely to be interested, although routes from existing bases in the way that BHX is served from BFS and Scotland can never be ruled out completely, and probably the same applies with Jet2 following its decision to go to BRS.