Ryanair

Jerry

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Heathrow is an unrealistic comparator for such people to use.
Yet people do, I've even seen someone complaining that Cardiff wasn't like Dublin. People see Cardiff as a capital city airport and have unrealistic expectations.
Personally I think even comparing to Bristol is unrealistic.
The 'noughties' owners of CWL let Ryanair go in 2006 because of a dispute over charges.
If what I'm told is correct the management at the time didn't feel Ryanair was important enough and feel vindicated as to their decision by attracting Aer lingus regional and were working with them to build up the destinations to Ireland with them. Many from that time seem uber critical of the loss of Aer Lingus regional and the Flybe deal and the airport in general.
 

Foxlimayankee

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I think there's a few factors influencing things with regards to Ryanair at the moment, and it could very well go either way.
Ryanair seem to be focussing on the short term. They have no issues with chopping and changing their route network and bases. That could go in CWL's favour if they get a better deal in the short term, whereas BRS may be less inclined to offer the better deal given they now ultimately have a good core number of Airlines. It all falls down to what deal CWL can and will offer FR.
What's interesting is what is currently happening with FR in Teesside and Wizz in Doncaster. Both very similar Airports to CWL. Teesside supposedly has a 10 year deal with the 2 new routes with FR. What the structure of that is, no-one knows. Lets not forget CWL had a 10 year deal with Flybe which soon got changed.

Long term FR may not be the ideal partner that CWL can trust to remain in any decent form. EZY, TUI and Jet2 will be going nowhere from BRS anytime soon. But, in the short term CWL needs someone like FR and Wizz to instil confidence in flying from CWL at competitive prices. The market is there, it just doesn't use it to its full potential.

There is also the elephant in the room as to the planning application from BRS growth. I'm not exactly up to date with the current stand/parking arrangements at BRS, but with Jet2 now coming in, and likely will soon grow further, parking must be tight. On top of that is Jet2's route network will likely mean more early and late flights, thus taking up that night quota. Obviously this doesn't take into account the current uncertainty with covid decreased demand.

FR have a huge void to fill with covid, that could well mean a lot of their European routes aren't viable. Other countries demand may not return as quickly as the UK. The British love their holidays, which may mean holiday travel will recover quicker than other European countries. TUI and Jet2 are confined to the UK, which means they only have the UK to transfer their capacity around. EZY are probably middle ground of FR and TUI/Jet2 as they do have a presence in Europe, but again not to the level of FR. It may mean if FR see an opportunity to make more money back in the UK, aircraft could be transferred.

The fact is CWL is struggling, they have few options. I have no idea what CWL could offer in terms of cheap/free landing and parking fees, reduced per passenger fees or even finding a way to pay FR to operate. Ultimately passenger throughput will bring people through the door and raise revenue in other ways. Someone put an interesting post on the Teesside Pprune thread about possible revenue from parking alone. Add on terminal revenue from duty free sales and food/drinks then it may mean CWL actually making money from passengers while paying FR to operate from there. With the government helping out UK Airports, it will hopefully open up more flexibility for CWL and the WG to use their money in different ways.

The other factors of FR is it doesn't necessarily take a base for them to operate. While a base would open up more routes, there is still opportunity for some routes to operate without the base.
It's still early days and as can be seen by the Teesside FR announcement, anything is possible and there's still plenty of time before Summer 2021 gets into full swing.
 

Jerry

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I'd be surprised if Ryanair was actually paying any fees at CWL, as for monetary incentives i'd have thought that would be reserved for airlines who would open a base or routes that are considered strategically important.
The WG have a marketing agreement with Qatar Airways to advertise Wales amongst it's network, i wonder if there is an opportunity for something similar with Ryanair to advertise Wales amongst their network and to add a few key routes like Dublin. CWL seems to value connecting Wales via hubs so maybe they need a change of tack to connect it via a LCC instead.
 

Jerry

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Looking at the app and it looks possible that Ryanair will be increasing frequency on the Malaga route. In June it may go 5 weekly with extra flights on Tuesdays and Saturdays. In July and August the route maybe 6 weekly with an extra flight added on Thursdays. It then looks like the route will be extended until the end of October operating 3 weekly on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. Obviously not 100% as the flights aren't onsale yet but if it does happen that should be a good boost for the airport.
 

Jerry

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Looks like Barcelona may return.
It's on the drop down with dates from May to the end of October 2 weekly on Tuesdays and Saturdays. No flights loaded yet.
Hopefully we might see Malta back?
 

Foxlimayankee

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Looks like Barcelona may return.
It's on the drop down with dates from May to the end of October 2 weekly on Tuesdays and Saturdays. No flights loaded yet.
Hopefully we might see Malta back?
Excellent news! There still appears to be flights slowly being loaded throughout the whole network. Malta is still a mystery for the whole South Western region so I'd be surprised if its completely dropped at CWL and BRS. Hopefully it will return to both Airports.
The increases to Malaga are positive and hopefully won't have too much of an effect on Vueling.
There's still differences between the App and the Website. Malaga is still showing 3 weekly on the website but the App shows the increases, with times, but showing sold out. The website also doesn't show Barcelona as an option.
 

Jerry

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Fingers crossed for Malta but even if it doesn't return at peak CWL may well have 10 weekly flights from Ryanair which would be a very good boost for Summer 2021. It also shows that even if Ryanair aren't interested in opening base they are interested in operating non based flights to CWL. Lets face it they could've cut everything and retreat to their core bases like Easyjet have done.
 

Jerry

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Well unfortunately it looks like the increases were too good to be true!
Malaga will remain 3 weekly but on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays except June when it's 2 weekly with no Thursday flight. The route will operate in September and October so some good news there.

Unfortunately Barcelona has disappeared from the drop down on the app.
 

Foxlimayankee

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Barcelona is now back but with no flights onsale.
I think there's strange things going on with the App as different people have been seeing different things. For me BCN has always remained in the list with dates but not available for sale.
A few days ago malaga had been reduced and also finished the end of August, the next day is was back to ending September at the original schedule.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Isn't it the case with Ryanair and in fact all airlines that the pandemic situation is so dynamic that no-one can know at the moment what services will be possible at any point in the coming summer?

Last autumn the aviation outlook for summer 2021 looked relatively promising, but recent events with new variants popping up and slow EU vaccine rollout - it was reported today that the Kent variant appears to be undergoing some 'worrying' new genetic changes according to scientists - preparing airline schedules must be like a cricketer trying to bowl accurately whilst wearing a blindfold.
 

Foxlimayankee

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Isn't it the case with Ryanair and in fact all airlines that the pandemic situation is so dynamic that no-one can know at the moment what services will be possible at any point in the coming summer?

Last autumn the aviation outlook for summer 2021 looked relatively promising, but recent events with new variants popping up and slow EU vaccine rollout - it was reported today that the Kent variant appears to be undergoing some 'worrying' new genetic changes according to scientists - preparing airline schedules must be like a cricketer trying to bowl accurately whilst wearing a blindfold.
Exactly that, and I think us eagle eyed enthusiasts are just noticing behind the scenes changes happening.
 

superking

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A lot of routes i think will be more or less last throw of the dice time wise as the route gets closer to operateing. As been said in posts going back has come up with weired things as not bookable,not running on some sites,and operateing on others.I was reading a post and it was said that routes checked on computer were different on a mobile phone,so it could be a bit of that on here with the BCN route.
 

Jerry

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Apparently Ryanair are loading winter 2021/22. Do we hold out any hope of regaining a winter route with Ryanair?
 

geoff

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I think the only hope at the moment, would possibly be Malta, but they seem to have cut most Malta services for the summer, everything is so unpredictable at this moment in time.
 
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