Flybe

[Matty_85]

Out of curiosity what’s the likelihood of the new airline using E175 again? I know this sounds really silly but jets just look more safe to average flyers than propeller planes

 

[HPsauce]

With regard to where a Flybe2 base would be, the big clue was in "West Midlands " from the Flightglobal article. That rules out East Midlands and Coventry closes for good in a year or two. Fleet wise, they must be surely looking to walk before they can run in this difficult period for aviation. I don't see them using jet aircraft yet, however appealing that sounds. I wish them well, but a big gamble i feel.

 

[IanFarquharson]

With regard to where a Flybe2 base would be, the big clue was in "West Midlands " from the Flightglobal article. That rules out East Midlands and Coventry closes for good in a year or two. Fleet wise, they must be surely looking to walk before they can run in this difficult period for aviation. I don't see them using jet aircraft yet, however appealing that sounds. I wish them well, but a big gamble i feel.

My guess BHX HQ and 1st base, no chance of E175's - that was half the problem last time !

 

[Kevin Farnell]

With regard to where a Flybe2 base would be, the big clue was in "West Midlands " from the Flightglobal article. That rules out East Midlands and Coventry closes for good in a year or two.

Halfpenny Green then!

Sorry, couldn't resist

Kevin

 

[rollo]

More advertising on LinkedIn by Flybe Mk2 for captains, first officers, cabin crew and other positions all West Midlands based must be some news of their plans sooner rather than later.

Suggested routes on pprune include Edinburgh, Glasgow, Belfast and Amsterdam please don't try those against EasyJet/KLM/Cityflyer.

Other suggestions Stuggart, Lyon, Milan, Hamburg, Hanover and Channel Islands plus maybe say Cork or Shannon No doubt other members can think of other possible routes although personally I'm not sure how the whole thing will pan out given I understand Cirrus are behind this as they were in the buy out of Flybe.

Plenty of money but questionable ethics see Monarch and Greybull.

 

[Coathanger16]

More advertising on LinkedIn by Flybe Mk2 for captains, first officers, cabin crew and other positions all West Midlands based must be some news of their plans sooner rather than later.

Suggested routes on pprune include Edinburgh, Glasgow, Belfast and Amsterdam please don't try those against EasyJet/KLM/Cityflyer.

Other suggestions Stuggart, Lyon, Milan, Hamburg, Hanover and Channel Islands plus maybe say Cork or Shannon No doubt other members can think of other possible routes although personally I'm not sure how the whole thing will pan out given I understand Cirrus are behind this as they were in the buy out of Flybe.

Plenty of money but questionable ethics see Monarch and Greybull.

Some very rough calculations, but using the schedule from the first week in May next year, extrapolated to cover the whole year, and then comparing seats available to passengers in 2019, there is some unfulfilled capacity on the routes you mention.

Assuming an 85% load factor from the passengers flown in 2019, the percentage of seats replaced are:

Guernsey 275%
Glasgow 122%
Amsterdam 102%
Edinburgh 80%
Belfast (BFS & BHD) 69%
Jersey 60%
Stuttgart 0%
Lyon 0%
Milan 0%
Hamburg 0%
Hanover 0%

 

[rollo]

Many thanks Coathanger 16 very interesting.

Any chance of Paris?

 

[Matt787]

I’m hoping they come back to DSA.

 

[rollo]

From what I've read BHX to start then MAN then??? it's all a bit of a guessing game really but at least it's good to talk about something potentially positive after the last horrible 18 months.

 

[IanFarquharson]

No chance of DSA
BHX then maybe MAN but a fair wait.
Then maybe a lot later SOU & BHD

 

[Coathanger16]

Many thanks Coathanger 16 very interesting.

Any chance of Paris?

By the same metric, Paris CDG is currently at 78%. Certainly room for a couple of daily flights on a Dash 8.

Think before each of Air France and Flybe operated 3 flights per day. Next summer is just Air France at 3 flights per day.

 

[HPsauce]

Assuming things pick up to near normal next year, we should be able to offer 6 flights to/from CDG on weekdays. If AF remain at 3 per day, it leaves opportunities for a Flybe2 or maybe Easyjet. We also had Vueling on Paris Orly for a while, which had good loads i believe.

 

[JENNYJET]

Am I alone with a sense of unease about Flybe 2.0? Whilst trying to encourage Easy jet and Jet2 to grow at BHX is it wise to chase a reboot of a failed airline? Does it need to be an international operator or best as a domestic alternative to land transport? I am just musing, not sure if Flybe can survive a second bite of the cake!

 

[Poshgirl]

Hope Flybe Mk2 management are not foolish enough to play to sentiment in expecting passengers to return. Fully appreciate there are parts of the UK where their flights were essential because of poor/non-existent train services and the extortionate fares charged.

I also question their survival when others have stepped into the breach. Restoring BHD (know BACF are on that one), CDG and MXP (or is it LIN) would seem sensible. Would the Dash 8's legs stretch as far as Italy? Were the German routes making money? My experience of Flybe was BHX-EDI-BHX in one day for work. Almost full Embraer jet both ways thankfully, as weather was awful on the return!

Wonder how far they've got with training? Any former crew (flight and cabin) won't just be able to "turn up on Monday morning and fly". The lack of information available on progress towards starting flights is concerning. Aviation media doesn't seem to have anything more than mentioning the job vacancies and guessing at base location/s, start date and aircraft.

That's my take on it....

 

[JENNYJET]

An excellent take, saying more than I could. My concern is the business case, how can it be enough to supersede the original company and survive?

 

[Coathanger16]

My concern is the business case, how can it be enough to supersede the original company and survive?

Depends what part of the previous iteration was profitable. If say the BHX and MAN bases were profitable, but the rest of the network wasn't, if Mk2 focuses of just those 2 airports then long term profitability may be achievable.

A quick look at Aberdeen in December is £152 with Loganair vs £175 by rail, with journey times of 1hr24m (flight only) vs 7hr40m.

That compares to £50 for Edinburgh with easyJet and £134 by rail.

With the exception of GLA/EDI/BFS (all of which have easyJet operating), I can't find a domestic return for less than £100 (or less than £150 in most cases).

Introducing competition to the likes of Loganair and Blue Islands should bring prices down, but hopefully not so far as to make the route unviable for the airlines involved.

A couple of years ago, did anyone really think Flybe would go bust? I certainly found it more surprising than either Monarch or Thomas Cook.

 

[JENNYJET]

"May be achievable" , that is my concern. Can business, not least a Capital intensive one, survive on maybe's?

 

[Poshgirl]

Their slogan about being faster and cheaper than the train was a good one, but often let down by aircraft going "tech" (usually Dash8) and cost-cutting by combining flights not just at quieter times during day. In fact, some disgruntled passengers renamed it "Flymaybe".

Very often the failure is down to poor management as in other business sectors. Perhaps Flybe was guilty of wanting to punch above its weight. They needed staff (office based ones) who knew how to utilise the fleet instead of blaming the Embraer jets for not bringing in enough revenue of the seasonal European routes (Dubrovnik an example). Also the blinkered approach to only using propeller aircraft to try and compete with EasyJet and Ryanair. The other side of that argument is Blue Islands and Aurigny who hopefully have made a success of having a mostly prop fleet.

The writing was on the wall for a while, but not as long as Monarch or Thomas Cook. Virgin's involvement in Flybe Mk2 was, in my opinion, the usual grandstanding. With the failure of Little Red, their sorties into the UK domestic market have not ended well.

 

[JENNYJET]

A need for a new business model therefore exists. BA don't want it, Virgin tried, so who else is there? A British domestic perhaps? Air UK came and went, Brymon Airways got eaten, Duo was a flash of lightning and we have BA Cityflyer. Does a need for a British Domestic airline exist and if so, would it resist international?

 

[Poshgirl]

JennyJet, totally agree!

The only one in the mix at the moment is Eastern although it's falling short in its present state. Never used them, but one comment I recall recently was "they're stuck in the 90s" with high fares. Perhaps a tweaked business model would generate a UK only domestic airline, with a mixed fleet to match demand.

Having trouble thinking of another country of the UK's size that has a purely domestic airline with no ambitions to go international....