CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[David_itl]

I 've tried to decipher the US T-100 stats for Singapore's Houston route for November

IAH-MAN: 5556 seats, 4126 passengers
MAN-IIAH 5556 seats 3029 passengers

7155 passengers'. The CAA reported 3943 passengers so 3300 went SIN-IAH-SIN?

 

[Scottie Dog]

I 've tried to decipher the US T-100 stats for Singapore's Houston route for November

IAH-MAN: 5556 seats, 4126 passengers
MAN-IIAH 5556 seats 3029 passengers

7155 passengers'. The CAA reported 3943 passengers so 3300 went SIN-IAH-SIN?

Many thanks David for those details, but I'm not certain whether you are quoting the correct month? You say November, however according to my records, taken from FR24, there were 21 movements each way, to and from IAH. That gives 10,626 available seat using a 253 seat aircraft. Also, a very small point, but the CAA figure is 3,843.
I've not yet tried looking at the US database, but I might try later today if I have the time.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Following on from various discussions that I've had with both the CAA & airport contacts it would seem probably that the US have quoted passengers arriving/departing from Houston and without differentiating whether they were just flying to/from Manchester. That would account for the difference and also give an indication of the number of passengers flying the entire route fir SQ51/SQ52.
My thanks to David for his input and for the link to the US DOT website.
Considering that the Houston flight ceases to operate in just a few weeks time I think that we can probably close this debate - enjoyable as it has been!

 

[David_itl]

https://simpleflying.com/as-few-as-54-nautical-miles-british-airways-10-shortest-routes-this-year/

strange the things you see in an article like that

"BA carried 629,000 roundtrip Heathrow-Manchester passengers

Relating this to booking data suggests that approximately 517,000 passengers (82% of the total) connected to another flight at Heathrow.

Examining transit traffic shows that BA's top 10 airport-level origins and destinations were Manchester to/from Mumbai, Miami, Los Angeles, Delhi, New York JFK, Gibraltar, Lagos, Jersey, Barbados, and Larnaca."
.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Excellent David. Thanks for posting.

 

[David_itl]

and back in 2019 for comparison
https://forums4airports.com/threads/3867/page-3

For Aer Lingus, the top destinations were Chicago, Boston, New York, Washington

For BA to the States: New York JFK, . Miami, Los Angeles, Boston and Chicago O’Hare

What price links Miami, Boston and Los Angeles in the medium term purely based on US travel?

 

[Scottie Dog]

Comparing the movements for February last year with the numbers from my daily logs, then February 2025 is 7.05pc up. Allowing for an extra day in 2024, then the increase goes to nearly 10pc.

 

[Scottie Dog]

My take on the percentage share of movements, by airline, for February - with January as a comparison:

	01/01/2025​	01/02/2025
Ryanair	26.21	25.56
easyJet	18.74	21.60
Jet2	7.48	8.06
TUI	6.07	5.47
British Airways	3.89	3.49
Loganair	2.77	2.82
Lufthansa	2.84	2.69
Miscellaneous	2.76	2.57
Aer Lingus Regional	2.67	2.50
KLM	2.22	2.27
SAS	1.32	1.65
Air France	1.35	1.36
Emirates	1.43	1.28
Qatar	1.44	1.28
Virgin Atlantic	1.40	1.25
Turkish	1.53	1.23
Aer Lingus	1.27	1.22
Eurowings	0.91	1.13
Pegasus	1.05	0.94
Swiss	0.95	0.94
Aer Lingus UK	0.77	0.79
Finnair	0.84	0.79
Brussels Airlines	0.77	0.78
Aurigny	0.77	0.69
Etihad	0.67	0.62
Singapore	0.66	0.61
TAP	0.61	0.57
Norwegian	0.50	0.55
Vueling	0.33	0.49
Egyptair	0.50	0.43
Icelandair	0.49	0.40
Cathay Pacific	0.43	0.37
Saudia	0.40	0.37
Iberia	0.37	0.32
Ethiopian	0.34	0.30
Gulf Air	0.36	0.30
SunExpress	0.28	0.30
Fedex	0.27	0.24
Hainan	0.45	0.21
Norse	0.19	0.20
Juneyao	0.31	0.18
Kuwait Airways	0.22	0.18
Austrian	0.15	0.15
Royal Air Maroc	0.17	0.15
Luxair	0.17	0.14
Biman Bangladesh	0.14	0.12
Aegean	0.12	0.11
Royal Jordanian	0.15	0.11
Eastern Airways	0.08	0.08
Air Transat	0.09	0.06
FlyOne	0.08	0.06
Freebird	-	0.03

And here is a copy of my spreadsheet showing the percentage change of movements during February:

		Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun		Weekly Movements 2025	Monthly Total 2024	Weekly Movements 2024	Monthly Total 2024	% Variation
Feb-25​	1st						483	516		999		1672​		-40.25​
	3rd	482	348	350	442	479	493	503		3,097		2874​		7.76
	10th	498	375	390	441	522	543	534		3,303		3048​		8.37
	17th	519	425	433	488	507	540	553		3,465		3026​		14.51
	24th	523	390	400	451	504				2,268	13,132	1649​	12,269	7.03​

 

[Scottie Dog]

The airport's official statistics for February are now available, and here is my comparison with 2019:

 

[Scottie Dog]

January statistics are already available at post #1249 however, now that the CAA have released their data I have been able to produce my other monthly reports:

Long-haul load factors

European load factors

Top 25 destinations by passenger numbers and percentage change

 

[Scottie Dog]

Based on my daily logs it would appear that the March movements will be up by about 8pc on last year

 

[Scottie Dog]

Following on from my estimate of the movements in post #1271 here is the official airport report. Obviously I have got things slightly wrong!!

 

[Scottie Dog]

The official airport data for February is in post #1269. Below is my take on the top destinations/percentage changes plus usual load-factors, based on my calculations using movements from FR24 and Flightaware plus seating configurations from planespotters.net.

As a little bonus I have also produced a comparison showing the top 25 destination for February 2000, compared with 2025. Over the next few months I will look at producing some other variants for you.

Just to top off the day, here is a comparison of passenger numbers for Canadian and US destinations - again in February 2000 and 2025

 

[Scottie Dog]

According to my daily logs it would seem that movements for April will be approximately 4.4% up on April 2024.

 

[Scottie Dog]

It would appear that I was slightly optimistic with my forecast for April's figures:

 

[Land23R]

The good news there is that although movements were only up just over 4%, passenger numbers increased 9%. (note schedule international pax at 11.38% vs 6.89% for movements).
Could be a higher mix of larger a/c; higher LFs, and Easter will have had an impact.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Data is now available from the CAA for March and I now repeat the data below for my calculation of load-factors. Please remember that Addis Ababa and Houston are destinations that are served in connection with another en-route destination. The load-factors are therefore lower than for just Manchester.

You might notice that there are a few destinations in the European tables.

My analysis of destinations by passengers and percentage change will follow early next week when I am back from a well deserved holiday!!

 

[robsh34]

Data is now available from the CAA for March and I now repeat the data below for my calculation of load-factors. Please remember that Addis Ababa and Houston are destinations that are served in connection with another en-route destination. The load-factors are therefore lower than for just Manchester.

You might notice that there are a few destinations in the European tables.

My analysis of destinations by passengers and percentage change will follow early next week when I am back from a well deserved holiday!!

The Stockholm figure looks concerning.

 

[Scottie Dog]

The Stockholm figure looks concerning.

Oops - I'll review that figure when I get home! I have a 7 hour drive tomorrow so it might be Sunday before I get to it.
Thanks for drawing my attention to the error.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Okay folks, I'm home and have just done an update of the figures. Please refer to the original post which has the amended March load-factors in the records.