CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Jerry]

With a further two months figures to come, they will well make a Million passengers for 2025, although CWL's figures are slightly more than Scottie Dogs monthly summary.

I'm sure Cardiffs figures are for the year

I wonder if they're November rolling year actually

 

[Samdorob]

I'm sure Cardiffs figures are for the year

I wonder if they're November rolling year actually

They might be, or basing the full year figure for the remainder of December on current ticket sales - assuming they have access to that data. Still it’s positive and as it currently stands the airport is looking at over 1m next year. If things go well it might even be 1.1m (I’ve not thoroughly calculated that by the way)

 

[Scottie Dog]

I would expect the airport to be showing the annual moving passenger figures through until the end of November. Unfortunately, and I fully understand why, the CAA are normally at least 6 weeks behind when they publish their data. Numbers for November are, technically, due to be published on 16th January.

On that note, can I wish you all a very happy Christmas and, hopefully, a good New Year. Thank you for following my efforts to produce a meaningful set of monthly figures.

 

[Jerry]

CWL has posted on X that the 952,000 is for 2025.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2005666167889752503

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats for November 2025
47,278 passengers used the airport up 12% on 2024
Rolling year was 947,000 passengers up 8%
Top 5 routes
1. Alicante 10,556 +51%
2. Amsterdam 8536 +3%
3. Dublin 7500 +30%
4. Tenerife 5690 -10%
5. Belfast City 3336 -2%

Edinburgh 1833 +10%

 

[geoff]

If CWL could reach 53000 in December, it would make over 1,000,000 for the year, that would be great news!

 

[Jerry]

If CWL could reach 53000 in December, it would make over 1,000,000 for the year, that would be great news!

Haven't the airport already stated that it's 952,000 for 2025? Guess we'll find out in a month!

 

[geoff]

The CAA figures show that would only be 5,000 more for the whole month of December, which when you consider the extra flights from FR over the holiday season, and the second based aircraft for TUI from 20/12, there will be a big difference between the CWL whole year figure and that of the CAA.

 

[Samdorob]

Haven't the airport already stated that it's 952,000 for 2025? Guess we'll find out in a month!

I’ve got Dec 2024 down as 39,556. Even if we assumed a 12% increase on that it wouldn’t quite make 1M. It would still be higher than the quoted 952,000. I’m not sure why the airports own figures differ from the CAA. Maybe the airport use October or November as the “end of the year”.

 

[Jerry]

I’ve got Dec 2024 down as 39,556. Even if we assumed a 12% increase on that it wouldn’t quite make 1M. It would still be higher than the quoted 952,000. I’m not sure why the airports own figures differ from the CAA. Maybe the airport use October or November as the “end of the year”.

I can’t see 1 million being hit. It'll be interesting to see what Decembers CAA figure is and whether it matches the airport figure or comes close.

On another page someone stated that for 2026 atm there's roughly 1.2 million seats onsale with still more to go for 2026. In 2025 there was 1,073,000 onsale so CWL roughly sold 88% of those seats. If it does the same again in 2026 1 million will definitely be broken and possibly even 1.1 million could be reached if CWL is lucky.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

If CWL could reach 53000 in December, it would make over 1,000,000 for the year, that would be great news!

It's a rolling year, so Nov 24-Nov 25 stats.
The passenger figure for 2025 only (Jan-Nov) is 907234. So December would need to see 93k passengers to top 1m.
Based on 952k, December would need to be about 45k, which would be a 5500 increase on Dec 24, which is achievable with the TUI and FR increases.

 

[Scottie Dog]

With the CAA data now being available, here is my take on November's statistics. Please remember that, for an unknown reason, there is always a difference between the total passenger figure in Table 9 and the separate figures from Tables 12.1, 12.2 and 12.3.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Nationwide statistics for December can be found here - https://forums4airports.com/threads/5728/page-4#post-319242.

Individual airport data will be posted as soon as possible.

With the CAA data now being available, here is my take on the latest monthly statistics. Please remember that, for an unknown reason, there is always a difference between the total passenger figure in Table 9 and the separate figures from Tables 12.1, 12.2 and 12.3.

 

[Jerry]

CAA has released the 2025 annual figures
958,945 passengers used the airport in 2025 up 9% (interestingly the Business Live article stated 963,000)
Aircraft movements 16,956
Total freight 1893 +4%
Top 10 routes
1. Alicante 122,322 +6%
2. Amsterdam 101,028 -3%
3. Malaga 100,403 +14%
4. Dublin 97,867 +55%
5. Tenerife 74,499 +7%
6. Palma de Mallorca 47,140 +11%
7. Belfast City 41,691 +4%
8. Arrecife 37,713 -1%
9. Dalaman 24,925 +3%
10. Paphos 22,370 +8%

Edinburgh 17,783 +10%
Barbados 3569 +50%
Chambery 3100

 

[Scottie Dog]

Unfortunately I'm currently on a bus heading to Liverpool however, hopefully, when I'm back hope this evening, the January data will be available and I can produce my usual monthly report.

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats for January 2026
46,079 passengers used the airport up 22% on 2025
Top 5 routes
Alicante 8067 +28%
Dublin 7216 +41%
Tenerife 7112 +15%
Amsterdam 6123 -9%
Arrecife 3244 +4%

Rolling year was 966,000 passengers up 10.1% on 2025

 

[CAN&I]

CAA Stats for January 2026
46,079 passengers used the airport up 22% on 2025
Top 5 routes
Alicante 8067 +28%
Dublin 7216 +41%
Tenerife 7112 +15%
Amsterdam 6123 -9%
Arrecife 3244 +4%

Rolling year was 966,000 passengers up 10.1% on 2025

Not sure where you are getting your data from but the CAA data across tables 12.1, 12.2 and 12.3 (not including duplicates) amounts to 45,376 terminal passengers for January 2026, up 22.9% or 8,458 on January 2025.

The rolling year Feb'25-Jan'24 is 962,139, up 9.8% or 85,522 on Feb'24-Jan'25, not 966,000. Where Business Live got the 966,000 figure from is anyone's guess. Assume this figure was provided by Cardiff Airport themselves as its an odd number for the journalist to simply pick out of thin air.

As for the total figures for 2025, based on terminal pax the number remains the same, i.e. 953,681. The 958,495 figure elsewhere in the CAA's statistics include transit and non-commercial passengers as reported by the airport.

The CAA admit themselves that their reporting isn't consistent or wholly accurate. Its difficult to nail the true statistics as there is a lack of consistency within the source data from one report to the next plus some reports miss data while others duplicate and some contain transit and / or non-commercial passengers while some do not.

Thats why the terminal figures in the reports mentioned (12.1-12.3) are the best to monitor and log as these are by far the most consistent of the lot and tend not to change in the year-end figures.

Hope this helps.

 

[Jerry]

Not sure where you are getting your data from but the CAA data across tables 12.1, 12.2 and 12.3 (not including duplicates) amounts to 45,376 terminal passengers for January 2026, up 22.9% or 8,458 on January 2025.

The rolling year Feb'25-Jan'24 is 962,139, up 9.8% or 85,522 on Feb'24-Jan'25, not 966,000. Where Business Live got the 966,000 figure from is anyone's guess. Assume this figure was provided by Cardiff Airport themselves as its an odd number for the journalist to simply pick out of thin air.

As for the total figures for 2025, based on terminal pax the number remains the same, i.e. 953,681. The 958,495 figure elsewhere in the CAA's statistics include transit and non-commercial passengers as reported by the airport.

The CAA admit themselves that their reporting isn't consistent or wholly accurate. Its difficult to nail the true statistics as there is a lack of consistency within the source data from one report to the next plus some reports miss data while others duplicate and some contain transit and / or non-commercial passengers while some do not.

Thats why the terminal figures in the reports mentioned (12.1-12.3) are the best to monitor and log as these are by far the most consistent of the lot and tend not to change in the year-end figures.

Hope this helps.

I get it from the CAA Stats themselves.
I use Size of UK airports PDF, Route Analysis PDF (Domestic and EU &International) and Terminal & Transit Passengers PDF. I've used those for at least a decade now. If they've got discrepancies compared to the other CAA tables take it up with the CAA.
I will continue to use those tables.

 

[CAN&I]

I get it from the CAA Stats themselves.
I use Size of UK airports PDF, Route Analysis PDF (Domestic and EU &International) and Terminal & Transit Passengers PDF. I've used those for at least a decade now. If they've got discrepancies compared to the other CAA tables take it up with the CAA.

No need to be defensive or passive-aggressive Jerry.

Just trying to help by pointing out the discrepancies between the individual reports as highlighted by the CAA themselves.

The airport-size files don't always align with the raw data elsewhere, which itself is often inconsistent. The CAA admit their data is flawed through the disclaimer on their website. We've also been tracking this for over a decade and while things have improved the matter has never truly corrected itself for whatever reason.

For example, the terminal and transit pax report (09) has a total of 958,495 pax for 2025 (including 484 transit pax). The airport size report (01) and combined terminal pax reports (10.1 & 10.2) states 958,011 (not including transit pax), yet the route analysis reports (12.1, 12.2 and 12.3) amount to 953,681 pax (not including transit pax). None of these reports are meant to include non-commercial pax so where has the other 4,330 pax come from in the airport-size report?

This raises the question as to how we (or anyone) can accruately breakdown the route pax when the overall pax number is greater than the sum of its parts?

 

[Scottie Dog]

You are quite correct in saying that the CAA data is often inaccurate - the content of Table 12.2 & 12.3 being a frequent bugbear to me. I have also noted for many years that the CAA figures very rarely, if ever, agree with those produced by Manchester airport.
At the end of the day we have to rely on the data that we are able to receive and, use it to the best of our ability
I do find the CAA to be helpful in their response to emails, although it may take a few days to receive an answer.
Hopefully, time permitting, as I said in an earlier reply to @Jerry, I will be able to start to produce my monthly reports this evening, however my time is divided between pretending to be a chef, gardener and attendee at U3A meetings!!