CAA Provisional Statistics Update


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TheLocalYokel

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CAA stats for December 2008 show 91,070 passengers were handled at CWL, 11.4% down on December 2007. Air traffic movements for the month were up 1.7% compared with December 2007.

The rolling 12-month total stands at 1,978,720, down 5.5% on the same period last year.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Re: Passenger Figures

January 2009

80,240 passengers were handled in the month, down 13.6 on January 2008. Atms were down 4.6%.

The rolling 12-month total is 1,966,121, down 5.3% on a year ago.

This is fairly typical of many UK airports in the current economic climate and is to be expected, though not welcomed of course.
 

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Re: Passenger Figures

5.3% decline for the 12 months is slightly worse than the national average of around -2.6% reduction.
 

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Passenger numbers fall as downturn hits UK airports

PASSENGER numbers at UK airports fell last year for the first time since 1991, new figures today show.

And the decline was particularly sharp in the final part of 2008 as the credit crunch started to bite, the figures from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) showed.

UK airports handled 235 million passengers in 2008 – a 1.9% fall on the 2007 figure and only the fourth time since the end of World War II that there has been a year-on-year decline.

There were four million fewer passengers passing through the airports in October to December 2008 than in the same period in the previous year.

As economic gloom descended, passenger numbers dipped 8.9% in November 2008 compared with November 2007 and fell 7.9% in December 2008 compared with December 2007.

At the London airports – Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton and London City – the annual fall last year was 2%, with 1.4 million fewer passengers using Stansted (a 6.0% decline on the 2007 total).

Luton, though, handled 2.6% more passengers while there was a 12% rise in the number of passengers passing through London City airport.

At the regional airports – those other than the London airports – passenger numbers fell 1.8% to 98 million. Manchester, the largest regional airport, saw passenger numbers fall by 3.8% but Birmingham airport grew by 4.8%.

In 2008, a total of 25 million passengers took domestic flights. This represented a fall of 4.8% on 2007.

At the recently renamed Cardiff Airport numbers for the year were down slightly having dropped below a little more than two million in 2007 to 1.97 million. Cardiff’s share of all UK airport terminal passenger numbers was also down from 0.9 to 0.8%.

In terms of passenger numbers Cardiff Airport is the 19th busiest UK airport. The airport closest to it, Bristol, had a more positive 2008, with passengers up from 5.8 million to 6.2 million.

Passenger numbers on charter airlines have been declining in recent years, and the 2008 total of 29 million was 9.3% down on 2007. Scheduled airlines handled 1.6 million fewer passengers (0.8% down) during 2008.

Last year the number of take-offs and landings of commercial aircraft at UK airports fell 2.2% to 2.3 million – the first decline since 2002.

CAA group economic regulation director Harry Bush said: “The fall in passenger numbers is to be expected in light of the worsening economic situation during 2008.

“The combination of business failures, such as those of XL Leisure Group and Zoom Airlines, together with a fluctuating oil price and the economic downturn has had a marked effect on the numbers of trips being taken.”

He went on: “The early indications are that the larger falls seen in the last quarter of 2008 are continuing into the new year, with the prospect of declining traffic in 2009 overall, which, if it occurs, will be the first time since World War II that UK passenger numbers have fallen for two consecutive years. Current economic trends make this outcome more likely than not.”

Source
 

TheLocalYokel

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Re: Passenger Figures

February 2009

CAA provisional stats show 93,169 people were handled this month, 13.2% down on February 2008. Atms were down 3.1%.

Gloomy as this undoubtedly is the figures almost represent a successful month compared with local airports at Bristol (down over 25%) and Exeter (down 29%).

The 12-month rolling figure stands at 1,951,591 down 5.9% on the same period last year.
 

TheLocalYokel

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March 2009

CAA provisional stats show 110,776 passengers were handled last month, down 18.8% on March 2008.

Rolling 12-month total is 1,925,988, down 7.6% on a year ago.

No Easter this March had a negative effect but the bulk is down to fewer flights and fewer passengers because of the economic situation - similar performance to many other airports.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Re: Passenger Figures

Annual Passenger Figures 1986 to 2008

I've had a trawl back through CAA stats to 1986 (the furthest back that such stats are relatively easy to gather) and reproduce below CWL's annual passenger figures for each of the years from 1986 to 2008.

Because there is often some interest regarding's CWL's performance relative to BRS, I have added the latter's figures alongside CWL's for year year - BRS in red. Figures are in millions or part thereof.

1986 0.487 0.469

1987 0.632 0.645

1988 0.619 0.705

1989 0.696 0.838

1990 0.593 0.774

1991 0.513 0.783

1992 0.653 1.026

1993 0.764 1.112

1994 0.990 1.276

1995 1.025 1.431

1996 1.001 1.394

1997 1.124 1.586

1998 1.230 1.814

1999 1.303 1.966

2000 1.500 2.124

2001 1.524 2.673

2002 1.416 3.415

2003 1.900 3.887

2004 1.873 4.603

2005 1.765 5.199

2006 1.993 5.710

2007 2.094 5.884

2008 1.979 6.229

It will be see that 1986 was the last year in which CWL handled more passengers than its Severnside neighbour.

In fact, I am pretty certain that in most, if not all years, prior to 1986 CWL saw slightly more passengers each year but the figures are not easy to obtain.

Although Bristol was 30%-60% ahead for most of the 1990s it has only been since the new Millennium that it has opened a significant gap, due mainly though not entirely to Go/easyJet.
 

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Re: Passenger Figures

It's astonishing to see how the Cardiff and Bristol figures compare side by side. Do the Cardiff forumers feel that this is primarily due to under investment in the airport?
 

TheLocalYokel

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Re: Passenger Figures

Until the mid 1980s both airports were primarily charter airports and in those days CWL was looked on as the main airport for the Severnside region - in part because a decade or so before the government of the day (I forget which party) had nominated Cardiff as the regional airport with Bristol designated a local airport.

Many people from the Bristol area used to have to use Cardiff for their holiday flights because it had a better selection than Bristol - some people think it still has judging from the occasional remark in the local Bristol papers or local radio stations. In reality, the situation is now reversed with many Welsh travellers having to use Bristol because of its better selection of routes.

By that time Bristol had been under the leadership of the legendary (in the local aviation fraternity) Les Wilson for several years (he was tragically killed in a car accident in the mid - 1990s before Bristol's transformation had really taken place) .

Les was a publicity-conscious showman and put Bristol Airport in the forefront of everything he did.

Gradually, charter flights increased at Bristol and a fledging scheduled network began.

Sometime in the early 1990s Les proudly told the local media that Bristol was now carrying more passengers than Cardiff and Exeter combined.

As the 90s progressed Bristol saw its schedued network expand even more and charter flights also began to nudge ahead of Cardiff in numbers.

The big change was Go/easyJet, airlines that took to BRS in a big way unlike bmibaby's disappointing appearance at CWL.

In summary, BRS does have a significantly larger catchment than CWL, including a larger business base, but the disparity is not as great as the respective passenger numbers suggest.

I believe the main difference has been in the quality of the senior management teams, and doubtless the owners, at the two airports over the past decade or so.
 

TheLocalYokel

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April 2009 Passenger Figures

CAA provisional stats show 118,032 passengers were handled last month, down 10.7% on April 2008.

Rolling 12-month total is 1,911,390, down 8.6% on a year ago.

In percentage drop terms, CWL did better than a number of other regional airports in April.
 

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I think we will see a 'gradual' return to normal loads through the summer but I suspect that the winter 09/10 period will be the hardest hit as airlines cut frequency on routes as a precautionary measure. Hopefully the summer 2010 season will see some encouraging passenger figures.
 

TheLocalYokel

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May 2009

Another disappointing month with 168,327 passengers flown in May, down 20.4% on May 2008. Atms were down 17.9% which might suggest that load factors on those flights that did operate were not much lower than last year.

Rolling 12-month total stands at 1,868,252, down 11.1% on a year ago.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Taken in the context of the greatly reduced number of flights the load factors have probably held up pretty well on those flights that did operate.

Not all airports have yet reported for May in the CAA stats but of those who have, of the fields of any size, only Edinburgh seems to be up on May 2008 at 1.5%

Others at random are Birmingham down 4.8%, Blackpool down 25.1%, Bournemouth down 18.9%, Exeter down 17.2%, Glasgow down 11.6%, Gatwick down 6.5%, Heathrow down 5.9%, Luton down 9.8%, Manchester down 13.7%, Newcastle down 7%, Norwich down 27.3%, Prestwick down 26.8%, Southampton down 12.5%, Stansted down 18.5%.

Broadly speaking many of the decreased passenger numbers can, like at CWL, be put down to fewer rotations in the month compared with a year ago, although there are some exceptions.

CWL has been particularly badly hit with its charter flight reductions which were a greater percentage of the whole than at some regional airports.

Like several of us on this message board I believe that if regional airports can weather the current economic woes they will be in a decent state to compete when matters take a turn for the better, and I am confident that CWL will be one of those. Its position as the major airport in Wales, in fact the only one of any size, will ensure that it will be well placed when the time comes.
 

TheLocalYokel

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I had a look at the breakdown of May's passenger figures which are as follows:

Scheduled routes

Paris Cdg (-23%), Cork (-19%), Dublin (-2%), Amsterdam (-32%), Barcelona (+ 304%, probably due to starting earlier than in May 08), Murcia (+ 4%), Belfast City (- 24%), Anglesey (-13%), Edinburgh (+ 2%), Glasgow (- 50%, no bmibaby this summer), Jersey (- 12%), Newcastle (-18%).

AMS and CDG are a cause for concern, though there is no baby route to AMS this summer but KLM has retained four daily rotations on weekdays with slightly fewer at wekeends.

Scheduled and Charter routes

Faro (- 14%), Alicante (- 31%), Mahon (+ 36%, there was no scheduled service in May 08), Malaga (- 13%), Palma (- 31%).

Charter routes

Larnaca (+ 18%), Paphos (- 1%), Corfu (- 17%), Heraklion (- 6%), Kefalonia (- 5%), Kos (+ 309 %, probably due to starting earlier than in May 08), Rhodes (- 5%), Zante (+ 7%), Verona (- 88%, probably due to starting later than in May 08), Malta (- 11%), Girona (- 64%), Ibiza (- 20%), Reus (- 19%), Arrecife (+ 10%), Fuerteventura (+ 17%), Las Palmas (-51%), Tenerife South (+ 6%), Bourgas (- 1%), Sharm el Sheik (- 3%), Bodrum (- 31%), Dalaman (+ 25%),

Antalya was operated in May 09 but not in May 08. Taking the three Turkish destinations together, May 2009 is up around 20%, with 9,671 in 08 and 11,635 in 09.

The Canary Islands are also cause for cautious optimism, Gran Canaria excepted.

Summary

Although the overall 20% drop in passenger numbers is disappointing there are mitigating circumstances that explain some of the fall, in addition to the fewer number of rotations (especially charter) and the gloomy international economic situation.

In May 2008 over 7,500 flew on charter flights from Ireland for the Heineken rugby final. baby had routes to Poland in May 08 that carried a total of around 4,000 passengers and Zoom took approximately 1500 on its Toronto and Vancouver routes, whilst nearly 3,000 flew to/from Sanford.

Belfast International figures for May 09 are not yet to hand which will add a few thousand to the monthly total.

Interesting figures and possible ramifications for the Aberdeen. May was the first full month of the operation and 860 passengers flew the route last month which at 6 x weekly (no Sats) gave 26 southbound and 26 northbound journeys in the month, an average load of between 16 and 17, or around 50% load factor on the Saab 340.

This is not a bad start, especially in view of the economic situation.

Neighbouring Bristol's Eastern service to Aberdeen has seen drops of 22% in both April and May, after January and March saw near parity with the corresponding months in 2008. Whether the new CWL route has a bearing may become clearer as the year unfolds.
 

TheLocalYokel

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June 2009

CAA stats show 185,537 passengers were handled in June 2009, down 17.7% on June 2008. Atms were down 14.2% which in itself is inconclusive vis-a-vis loads because there may well be more smaller aircraft operating in June this year compared to last.

Rolling 12-month total for June 2009 is 1,828,303, down 12.5% on a year ago.

Probably on a par with expectations.

The new ABZ route saw 841 passengers, average load around 16 or approx 50% load factor, almost identical to May.
 

TheLocalYokel

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I think it's a very decent start and Flybe is known for having low 'break-even' points on routes compared with many other airlines. I know that this is a Loganair flight but under the Flybe name with all the back-up and support for the route that will entail.

Bristol Airport's Eastern ABZ route is down 11% in June, some of which may be attributable to the new route from CWL.

Like so many routes from most airports winter will be the test and I suppose it's possible that the route might go, say, M-W-F-Sun then.

However, having started it let's hope Flybe give it a real go.
 

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planenut321 said:
50% is not bad for ABZ but it may not be enough to keep it. The problem is the timing. Who wants to travel a 3:25 to Aberdeen for say a business meeting. It means a hotel over night possibly 2 nights which is a big put off :S
I'm not sure if I mentioned this before but ABZ is used by a large number of oil rig workers from across the country. Flying up to at Aberdeen at 3:25 in the afternoon to go to work probably isn't such a big deal to them. Furthermore, their companies are usually quite willing to pay for business class.
 

TheLocalYokel

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NB

I have given a good deal of background to this service which i think is relevant to it and to the CWL service but a summary of the answer to your question can be found in the paragraphs in bold - in case you don't want to wade though it all. :pleasantry:


The ABZ-BRS route was started by Eastern at the end of 2004. There had been a previous route operated by BACX via Newcastle which lapsed when easyJet went onto BRS-NCL.

The Eastern route had the benefit of support from the Scottish RDF for its first three years.

It operates 3 x daily Mon to Fri and single daily on Sundays. Equipment is the 29-seat J 41 except for Sundays when a Saab 2000 is used and the flight routes via LBA in both directions, though no bookings between LBA and BRS )or vice versa) are permitted. The LBA routing is new for summer 09.

The route has been remarkably consistent in its passenger numbers until this year.

In 2006 just under 29,000 were carried and in 2007 and 2008 just under 27,000 were carried in both years.
Apart from December and January when loads dropped under 2,000 per month the monthly loads were always in the 2,300-2,500 bracket throughout the year.

This would give an average load per year of between 15 and 17 per month, except for Dec and Jan when they would be around 14, bearing in mind that rotations are dropped at Christmas and the New Year - broadly speaking 15-16 per sector for the year as a whole

So until this year load factors varied between 45% in the worst months to around 60% in the best months - based on the J41.

This year though total passenger numbers have dropped by 12.5% in the first six months of the year. In June the average load was just above 14 or 50% lf on the J 41. If this trend persists for the whole of 2009 we shall finish with average loads per sector of approximately 13.5-15 for the year as a whole.


Of course, Eastern charge high fares which means it is almost entirely a business service which is confirmed by the consistent monthly pax number throughout the year. There are no peak months to reflect the presence of leisure travellers.

I would never use Eastern to fly to ABZ because of their high fares. I would and have used easyJet toInverness at a fraction of Eastern's fares.

I have set this out at some length to demonstrate why I think the CWL service has made a very satisfactory start in passenger numbers, especially in view of the current economic situation.

I suspect that, like Eastern at BRS, it is mainly a business flight which should provide a sustained base for the route.

I would have thought Flybe would be very pleased with this start although I haven't recently checked to see what sort of fares they are charging.
 

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Re: Passenger Figures

CAA Stats for July

Passenger numbers for July were -18.4% down compared with the same month last year. Passenger numbers for the month of July were 189,490

The rolling year passenger numbers stand at 1,785,683 -14% down.

Yet another bad month for Cardiff and worse than the national average. Initial figures released by the CAA suggests that the national average is a reduction of -7% nationally.
 
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