I dont think its all about raw passenger numbers. And others have noted, Emirates' fair structure is not hugely competitive, you can save a fortune (c.£200 return) flying indirect (with a short stop) to Dubai with other quality carriers, and they therefore snaffled the 'must go to Dubai direct' pax who are willing to pay slightly more.
Where i suspect Emirates' eggs are is the focus on Emirates Holidays - one of the better long haul package travel providers, which defaults to passing through Dubai in most cases (certainly from BHX). Remember Travelbag and (less so) Travel Republic, which combined sell a lot of eastern packages, are both part of the same group. I would suggest that Emirates makes as much money on an Emirates Holidays booking as it does in selling a few extra seats on a direct BHX-DXB flight. My personal view is that they arent really in game of selling flights only, and would rather sell a package deal. From my experience Emirates have only been worthwhile looking at when flying as part of a package and almost never on a flight only basis.
Or in other words, i doubt that Emirates are actually worried too much about losing market share - as long as their aircraft are full. Adding a 3rd daily flight would only be on the basis of filling it with a large chunk being packages to Dubai or further afield. With the wider competition from premium airlines now at BHX, im not convinced it would fill the aircraft without having to reduce prices - and that is then counter-productive.
The final point i'd add is that there seems to be an increasing view that the shine is going off Dubai. It seems particularly and increasingly popular with the 18-30/influencer brigade. Everyone i know who has been in the last 10 years has commented how much more appealing Abu Dhabi is for a holiday. And in fact maybe thats the end state for Emirates - there has been talk of an Etihad/Emirates merger for years (not sure the latest on that, but was becoming more and more likely last i heard), and flights moving 30km south to DWC which is then much more appealing for Abu Dhabi pax - i could see the demand increasing signficantly at that point!
All speculation on my part, of course.
Where i suspect Emirates' eggs are is the focus on Emirates Holidays - one of the better long haul package travel providers, which defaults to passing through Dubai in most cases (certainly from BHX). Remember Travelbag and (less so) Travel Republic, which combined sell a lot of eastern packages, are both part of the same group. I would suggest that Emirates makes as much money on an Emirates Holidays booking as it does in selling a few extra seats on a direct BHX-DXB flight. My personal view is that they arent really in game of selling flights only, and would rather sell a package deal. From my experience Emirates have only been worthwhile looking at when flying as part of a package and almost never on a flight only basis.
Or in other words, i doubt that Emirates are actually worried too much about losing market share - as long as their aircraft are full. Adding a 3rd daily flight would only be on the basis of filling it with a large chunk being packages to Dubai or further afield. With the wider competition from premium airlines now at BHX, im not convinced it would fill the aircraft without having to reduce prices - and that is then counter-productive.
The final point i'd add is that there seems to be an increasing view that the shine is going off Dubai. It seems particularly and increasingly popular with the 18-30/influencer brigade. Everyone i know who has been in the last 10 years has commented how much more appealing Abu Dhabi is for a holiday. And in fact maybe thats the end state for Emirates - there has been talk of an Etihad/Emirates merger for years (not sure the latest on that, but was becoming more and more likely last i heard), and flights moving 30km south to DWC which is then much more appealing for Abu Dhabi pax - i could see the demand increasing signficantly at that point!
All speculation on my part, of course.
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